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Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Powell, in yesterday's press conference, maintained that "the election will have no effect on our policy decisions." According to the futures market, just 30.4% of traders think the Fed will cut rates again in January. "By December, we'll have more data, I guess one more employer report, two more inflation reports and lots of other data," Powell said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Andrew Caballero, Reynolds, Jim Reid, Trump, Scott Helfstein, Powell, we'll, that's, , Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han, Hakyung Kim, Jesse Pound, Alex Harring Organizations: Federal Reserve, AFP, Getty, CNBC, Deutsche, Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Global, Congress, Fed Locations: Washington , DC
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following the Nov. 6-7, 2024, Federal Open Market Committee meeting at William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 7, 2024. ET, market pricing pointed toward a 67% chance of another quarter-point cut in December and a 33% chance of a pause that month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The probability of a quarter-point December rate cut rose to more than 70% following the meeting, while the chances of a pause slipped to nearly 29%. Future rate probabilities found in the CME FedWatch Tool are derived from trading in 30-day fed funds futures contracts. Meanwhile, the odds that the Federal Reserve would skip an interest rate cut in January was around 71%.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, , Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Federal Locations: Washington ,, U.S
Grant said stocks could soon enter a period of weak returns, possibly for "many years." AdvertisementThe bull market in stocks looks like it's close to the top, according to an investment chief. AdvertisementSentiment and position indicators are also flashing signs investors are overexcited about the stock market, Grant said. The 3-month moving average of year-ahead stock market expectations has climbed to its highest on record, according to Conference Board data. That suggests there's little "cushion" in the event the stock market declines or experiences a shock, Grant said.
Persons: Michael Grant, Grant, , subpar, Morgan Organizations: Calamos Investments, Service, Conference, Board, Federal, Federal Reserve, Governors, Morgan Research, Bloomberg, Investors
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell arrives to a news conference following the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building on September 18, 2024 in Washington, DC. This week's inflation data provided more evidence that the Federal Reserve is nearing its objective, fresh on the heels of the central bank's dramatic interest rate cut just a few weeks ago. Consumer and producer price indexes for September both came in around expectations, showing that inflation is drifting down to the central bank's 2% target. The Wall Street investment bank on Friday projected that the Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures price index for September will show a 12-month inflation rate of 2.04% when it is released later this month. The Fed prefers the PCE as its inflation gauge though it uses a variety of inputs to make decisions.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Washington , DC, Commerce, Fed, PCE, Chicago Fed, CNBC Locations: Washington ,
Great news for Club stocks Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley : The rebound in investment banking isn't over yet. We'll find out to what extent when Wells Fargo reports earnings on Oct. 11 and Morgan Stanley delivers quarterly results on Oct. 16. MS YTD mountain Morgan Stanley (MS) year-to-date performance For Morgan Stanley, a resurgence in its investment banking division is crucial to our investment thesis and why we stuck with it. WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo (WFC) year-to-date Morgan Stanley's IB business is much larger than Wells Fargo's. Wells Fargo, which has a strong wealth management franchise, is branching out to take a slice of the IB pie.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, We'll, Wells, Jerome Powell, Powell, Rebecca Brokmeier, Brokmeier, Morgan, Jim Cramer, Goldman Sachs, underperformance, Dan Simkowitz, Jim, We've, Charlie Scharf, Jim Cramer's, William McChesney Martin Jr, Anna Moneymaker Organizations: Club, Wells, Federal Reserve, Wall, P Global Market Intelligence, KPMG, Global, Fed, National Association for Business, CNBC, Morgan Stanley's IB, IB, Bloomberg News, Federal, Getty Locations: U.S, Nashville , Tennessee, Wells, Wells Fargo, Washington , DC
Khurana thinks what has made boomers the wealthiest generation — stocks and housing — also makes them a risk to economic stability. AdvertisementSuch a scenario is an '"underappreciated risk," he said, given how much boomers' spending habits have fueled economic growth in recent years. The demographic spends around $548 billion a year, more than any other generation, according to a report from marketing research firm Epsilon. AdvertisementBroken down by each generation's holdings of property and stocks, boomers accounted for 42% of all real estate ownership and 54% of all corporate equity and mutual fund ownership. That's not to say boomers will cause the next recession, but the risk during a recession is dialed up under the current paradigm, Khurana said.
Persons: , America's, Brij, Khurana, boomers, they've, John Hussman, That's Organizations: Service, Wellington Management, Business, McKinsey & Company, New York Fed, Epsilon, New, Boomers, Federal Reserve, Governors Boomers, Governors Locations: New, New York, Florida and Texas
It also means lots of talk from the experts about "normalizing the yield curve" in the bond market — meaning getting back to a setup where bonds with longer maturities yield higher rates than those with shorter-term maturities. That's referred to as "yield curve inversion," which has historically signaled an upcoming recession. Currently, however, the yield curve looks more like a check mark than a gradually rising hill. An inverted Treasury yield curve messes with that dynamic. Everyone, from private citizens to multinational corporations benefits from a normalized yield curve because normal means less uncertainty, which means more predictability.
Persons: Jerome Powell, shouldn't, Stanley Black, Decker, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, William McChesney Martin Jr, Anna Moneymaker Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury, CNBC, Federal, Getty Locations: U.S, Washington , DC
Anna Moneymaker | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. By contrast, the prevailing sentiment among experts was that a 25-point cut was more likely, according to a CNBC survey. And he was likely aware that a bigger-than-usual cut might connote that the Fed's worried about the economy. "I don't see anything in the economy right now that suggests that the likelihood of a recession, sorry, of a downturn, is elevated," Powell said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Anna Moneymaker, Jerome Powell's, Powell, , Jeff Cox, Yun Li, Hakyung Kim, Samantha Subin Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Washington , DC
Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. By contrast, the prevailing sentiment among experts was that a 25-point cut was more likely, according to a CNBC survey. And he was likely aware that a bigger-than-usual cut might connote that the Fed's worried about the economy. "I don't see anything in the economy right now that suggests that the likelihood of a recession, sorry, of a downturn, is elevated," Powell said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Anna Moneymaker, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Jeff Cox, Yun Li, Hakyung Kim, Samantha Subin Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Getty, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Washington , DC
The meeting wraps up Wednesday afternoon, with the release of the Fed's rate decision coming at 2 p.m. "I hope they cut 50 basis points, but I suspect they'll cut 25. Here's a breakdown of what's on tap:The rate waitThe FOMC has been holding its benchmark fed funds rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5% since it last hiked in July 2023. The 'dot plot'Perhaps just as important as the rate cut will be the signals meeting participants send about where they expect rates to go from here. In June, FOMC members penciled in just one rate cut through the end of the year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Andrew Harnik, they'll, Mark Zandi, that's, Tom Simons, Zandi, Robert Kaplan, There'll, Seema Shah, FOMC, Moody's, Goldman Sachs, Powell presser, Goldman, Simons Organizations: Federal Reserve, Committee, Moody's, Wall, Jefferies, Dallas Fed, CNBC, Asset Management Locations: Washington , DC
A weaker-than-expected July jobs report on Friday officially triggered the Sahm rule. "We are not in a recession now — contrary the historical signal from the Sahm rule — but the momentum is in that direction," Sahm told CNBC by email on Friday. That frankly is not good enough, we can do better than avoiding a recession," Sahm told CNBC's "The Exchange." Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building on July 31, 2024 in Washington, DC. In mid-June, Sahm told CNBC that the U.S. central bank risked tipping the economy into contraction by not cutting interest rates sooner.
Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, , we're, CNBC's, Dario Perkins, Perkins, Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Andrew Harnik Organizations: Federal, CNBC, U.S . Federal, New Century Advisors, New, Lombard, National Bureau of Economic Research, Federal Reserve, Getty, U.S Locations: U.S, Washington , DC
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell arrives to speak at a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building on July 31, 2024 in Washington, DC. If the Federal Reserve is starting to set the table for interest rate reductions, some parts of the market are getting impatient for dinner to be served. Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, said on CNBC just after the Fed concluded its meeting Wednesday. The Fed needs to start that process back gradually to normal, which means gradually reducing interest rates." If the inflation job is done, or we're on that glide path, it's OK, the Fed can start stepping aside."
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Claudia Sahm, Sahm Organizations: Federal Reserve, New Century Advisors, CNBC, Fed Locations: Washington , DC
Investors will listen for the central bank's latest perspective on interest rates following the hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI reports this week. As members know, the market is looking for any signs of further disinflation in the housing market as shelter cost inflation remains the Fed's biggest concern. No club names report earnings next week, but we can't wait to see what Nvidia has to show us at its GTC AI developer conference . Other key reports include KB Home on Wednesday, which will provide a real-time look at the state the housing market, unlike the backward-looking housing reports. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: we'll, That's, Jerome Powell's, We're, Jensen, Jim Cramer, Huang, He'll, Lululemon, General Mills, OLLI, LULU, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Jerome Powell, Leah Millis Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, PPI, Nvidia, Blackwell, CNBC, Micron Technology, Citi, Micron, Broadcom, Nike, FedEx, Music Entertainment, ZTO, Signet Jewelers, SIG, Sportradar, Micron Tech, KB, Worthington Industries, Accenture, Darden, Academy Sports &, Lufax, Brands, Winnebago Industries, Commercial Metals Company, Jim Cramer's Charitable, U.S . Federal, Federal, Market Locations: U.S, California, China, Washington , U.S
The Biden administration has limited credit card late fees to $8, a 75% reduction. Federal Reserve BoardA study by the CFPB published in 2022 showed that credit card late fees are disproportionally collected from people in low-income neighborhoods. The Good Brigade/Getty ImagesReduced credit card late fees would also be worth about $414 million to the real estate industry. A drop in the bucket of credit card costsCredit card debt is now at record levels and interest rates on those cards have soared. Interest and other credit card fees cost consumers more than $1,100 a year and are still growing.
Persons: Biden, Vance Ginn, Jenny Thorvaldson, Thorvaldson Organizations: Consumer Financial, Business, IMPLAN, Biden, Federal Reserve Bank, Federal, Brigade, Centers for Disease Control, Money Management, MMI
CNBC Daily Open: Will the Fed not cut rates in 2024?
  + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the headquarters of the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 13, 2023. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Asia stock markets mixedAsia markets were mixed Tuesday as investors assesses China's GDP growth projections of "around 5%" for 2024. Gold sets new recordGold rose above $2,100 to the highest level ever as traders bet the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in the second half of the year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Freddie Lait, CNBC's, Ferrari Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, CNBC, CSI, Dow, Nasdaq, National People's, Ministry, Finance, Nikkei, Latitude Investment Management Locations: Washington ,, Asia, China
Homeowners who recently purchased properties with interest rates as high as 8% face much higher monthly mortgage payments than those seen a few years ago. Of course, interest rates will not return to 3% anytime soon, but homeowners don't need rates to drop much to see a big difference in their bank accounts. Homeowners with high-interest mortgage loans are expected to quickly refinance when rates drop. While mortgage interest rates started to fall in late 2023, they were above 7% for much of the year, peaking near 8% in October, and recently climbed back above 7%. Win McNamee/Getty ImagesWhenever cuts happen, a drop in rates would save existing and new homeowners money each month.
Persons: , Michele Raneri, Raneri, Eric Audras, Raphael Bostic, Jerome Powell, Win McNamee Organizations: Service, Business, TransUnion, Atlanta Fed, CNN, . Federal Reserve Locations: TransUnion
US consumers are struggling with soaring credit card debt and rising interest rates. Credit card debt is now at record levels, and interest rates on those cards have soared. AdvertisementOf that total debt, credit card balances are growing the fastest. While this could create a parallel between today's credit card crisis and the mortgage crisis of 15 years ago, there are a few important differences today. AdvertisementStill, the rise in credit card debt and delinquencies could point to cracks in the strength of Americans' spending power.
Persons: Thomas Nitzsche, Gen Z, millennials, Nitzsche, Ginger Chambless, Chambless Organizations: Business, Money Management, MMI, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve, Adobe Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Wells Fargo
CNBC Daily Open: Wall Street anxious over Fed concerns
  + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the headquarters of the Federal Reserve on January 31, 2024 in Washington, DC. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Overnight, U.S. stocks lost ground and Treasury yields rose amid lingering concerns that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates as much as expected. About 97% of the oil produced today was discovered in the 20th century, she told CNBC. "It's the banks that made bad decisions that are making [other] banks look attractive in pricing," Smead told CNBC, who picked two bank stocks that are in play.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Dow, Vicki Hollub, Cole Smead, Smead Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC, Nasdaq, UBS, Occidental Locations: Washington ,, China, Hong Kong, Asia, Pacific, Beijing, Swiss
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. In today's big story, we're looking at the grilling tech CEOs got during a contentious Senate hearing, with one notable exception. The big storyTech on trialAnna Moneymaker/Getty ImagesTech CEOs testified in a Senate hearing that turned into the type of fiery debates found on their social-media platforms. Executives for Meta, TikTok, X, Snapchat, and Discord were grilled by US lawmakers during a contentious Senate hearing on online child sexual exploitation. The most shocking moment involved Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, BI's Lauren Steussy reports.
Persons: , we're, Anna Moneymaker, Aaron Mok, Camilo Fonseca, Mark Zuckerberg, BI's Lauren Steussy, GOP Sen, Josh Hawley, Zuckerberg, Shou Zi Chew, Republican Sen, Tom Cotton, Linda Yaccarino, Alex Wong, Chew, X's Yaccarino, BI's Katie Notopoulos, Yaccarino, Katie, It's, there's, Sen, Lindsey Graham, We've, Jerome Powell, Win McNamee, Troy Rohrbaugh, Jamie Dimon, it's, Jeff chiu, Alyssa Powell, Byron Allen, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb Organizations: Business, Service, Tech, Getty Images Tech, Meta, GOP, Republican, Chinese Communist Party, Pew, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Paramount, Getty, Apple Locations: Washington, Washington ,, New York, London
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's extraordinary how well the Fed is doing, says Fmr. Board Member Frederic MishkinFrederic Mishkin, Fmr. Federal Reserve board member, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk inflation data, the Federal Reserve and more.
Persons: Frederic Mishkin Frederic Mishkin Organizations: Federal Reserve Locations: Fmr
CNBC Daily Open: The Fed's rude awakening
  + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the headquarters of the Federal Reserve on December 13, 2023 in Washington, DC. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. China shares also fell after the country missed fourth quarter GDP estimates but met its year-end growth target of 5%. [PRO] 'Buy the dip'Morgan Stanley highlights its key picks in Europe's technology hardware sector after a "rollercoaster year" in 2023.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wall, Morgan Stanley's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Washington , DC, CNBC, Federal, Big Bank, Wall Street's Locations: Washington ,, Asia, Hong Kong, China
However, credit card balances are especially worrisome because they are going to keep getting worse. That means the average American could be spending $1,140 every year on credit card interest and fees alone. Americans have been accruing a lot of credit card debt at a terrible timeAccording to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Americans had nearly $1.1 trillion in credit card debt in the third quarter of this year. Credit card interest rates, which had already been at their highest level since the mid-1990s, started soaring even higher. But with credit card debt going through the roof, the blissful spending could come to a screeching halt.
Persons: couldn't, , Gary Coronado, LendingTree, Ted Rossman, Biden Organizations: Service, SoFi Bank, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Reserve Board, Fed, New York, New York Fed, Consumer Financial, CNN, Household Economics Locations: WalletHub, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, delinquencies
European stocks are heading for a mixed open Wednesday as regional markets struggle to build positive momentum and assess comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve board members. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he was growing more confident that policy was in a place now to bring inflation back under control. Waller also said the Fed might start lowering rates if inflation continues to ease over the next three to five months. U.S. stock futures ticked up on Tuesday night, as investors held out hope that the Federal Reserve is done raising benchmark interest rates. Asia-Pacific markets largely fell overnight, led by losses in Hong Kong.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal Locations: Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong
The sails of the Opera House are illuminated with projections on the opening night of Vivid Sydney 2023 in Sydney, Australia, on Friday, May 26, 2023. Asia-Pacific markets were set to open lower as investors assess comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve board members and await Australia's October inflation figures. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he was growing more confident that policy was in a place now to bring inflation back under control. Waller also said the Fed might start lowering rates if inflation continues to ease over the next three to five months. In contrast, Governor Michelle Bowman said more rate hikes will likely be needed as evolving dynamics keep inflation elevated.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Michelle Bowman, Bowman Organizations: Opera, Vivid, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal Locations: Sydney, Australia, Asia, Pacific
This holiday season, shoppers who ring up purchases on credit cards will pay more interest if they carry balances from month to month after the Federal Reserve's string of rate hikes. Already, investors and retailers have paid closer attention to credit card payments — and some have cited them as a concern. The company, which has its own branded credit cards, has seen lower revenues from those cards because of costs associated with bad debt and related write-offs. Mitchell said student debt, auto loans and mortgages have all become bigger burdens in a high interest rate environment. For retailer-issued cards, the average interest rate is nearly 30%, a record high, according to data from Bankrate.
Persons: Alexi Rosenfeld, Aditya Bhave, Bhave, Taylor Swift, Wall, Adrian Mitchell, Mitchell, Doug McMillon, Tim Quinlan, Wells, Quinlan Organizations: Getty, Shoppers, Bank of America, Consumers, Walmart, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: New York City, Wells Fargo
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