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Donald Trump's proposed tariffs will dent U.S. economic growth going into 2026, said Morgan Stanley's chief global economist Seth Carpenter. In the event that they are enacted all at once, they could result in a "big negative shock" to the economy, Carpenter told CNBC's Sri Jegarajah on the sidelines of Morgan Stanley's annual Asia Pacific Summit in Singapore. Carpenter, who maintained Morgan Stanley's base case of these tariffs being spread over 2025, said they would lead to higher inflation. "Then into 2026, we think growth starts to come down a great deal in the U.S. because of those tariffs and some of the other policies," he cautioned. Very clear, tariffs are a drag on growth for the U.S., not just for the countries that the tariffs are put on," Carpenter added.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Morgan Stanley's, Seth Carpenter, Trump, Carpenter, CNBC's Sri, Morgan, Mark Malek, Siebert, Joe Biden, Trump's, Malek, Ben Emons Organizations: Asia Pacific Summit, Microsoft, Apple, U.S . Federal Reserve, FedWatch Advisors Locations: China, CNBC's Sri Jegarajah, Morgan Stanley's, Singapore, U.S
Oil prices edge higher after Russia-Ukraine tensions escalate
  + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Crude oil storage tanks are seen from above at the Cushing oil hub, in Cushing, Oklahoma, March 24, 2016. Oil prices edged up on Monday after fighting between Russia and Ukraine intensified over the weekend, although concerns about fuel demand in China, the world's second-largest consumer, and forecasts of a global oil surplus weighed on markets. Russia unleashed its largest air strike on Ukraine in almost three months on Sunday, causing severe damage to Ukraine's power system. Investors also fretted over the pace and extent of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve that has created uncertainty in global financial markets. In the U.S., the number of operating oil rigs fell by one to 478 last week, the lowest since the week to July 19, Baker Hughes data showed.
Persons: Joe Biden's, Biden, Tony Sycamore, Brent, WTI, Baker Hughes Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, IG, International Energy Agency, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: Cushing , Oklahoma, Russia, Ukraine, China, Kursk, U.S
Top Morningstar strategist David Sekera says there's one sector that "deserves a place in everybody's portfolio" right now — the energy sector. Stocks Sekara is betting on within the energy theme include Exxon Mobil and Devon Energy . Morningstar has a four-star rating on Devon Energy and says it is trading at a 22% discount to fair value. The investment research company gives stocks a rating of between one and five stars, with a top rating indicating that the shares are undervalued. Sekera says that U.S. stocks are now trading around 6% higher than their fair value.
Persons: David Sekera, George Bull, Sander Morris, Aaron Dunn, Donald Trump's, Morningstar, Trump, Sekera, Sekara Organizations: Morgan, Value, Exxon Mobil, Devon Energy, Exxon Mobile, U.S, Trump, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: U.S, Morgan Stanley's
Don't expect 'huge swings' on mortgage ratesElection uncertainty contributed to an upward swing in mortgage rates during October. But now that we have a president-elect, mortgage rates are expected to gradually come down over time, Lautz said. Experts say that mortgage rates might head into a "bumpy" or "volatile" path over the next year. "Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025," she said. For example, if you bought your home around this time last year, when mortgage rates peaked at around 8%, you might benefit from a mortgage refinance, Lautz said.
Persons: Freddie Mac, it's, Jessica Lautz, Lautz, Jerome Powell, Robert Dietz, Jessica Lautz Jessica Lautz, Jeff Ostrowski, Jacob Channel Organizations: Getty, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, Treasury, Trump, Federal, CNBC Locations: U.S
Asia-Pacific markets appeared set to rebound on Friday, breaking ranks with Wall Street after U.S. Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said the central bank does not need to be "in a hurry to lower rates." Speaking in Dallas, Powell pointed out that strong U.S. economic growth will allow policymakers to take their time in deciding how far and how fast they should lower interest rates. In Asia, investors will be assessing key economic data from Japan and China on Friday, with Japan set to release third-quarter GDP numbers. China will announce October figures for retail sales, industrial output and the urban unemployment.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal Locations: Asia, Pacific, Dallas, Japan, China
European markets were set to open lower Friday, as investors looked ahead to fresh data and assessed the future path for interest rate cuts following hawkish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index was seen opening 13 points lower at 8,054, Germany's DAX 39 points down to 19,210, France's CAC lower 26 points at 7,283 and Italy's FTSE MIB 129 points down to 33,966, according to IG data. Across the Atlantic, speaking Thursday, Powell said that strong U.S. economic growth is allowing policymakers to take their time in deciding how far and how fast to lower interest rates. U.S. stock futures inched lower overnight as Wall Street continued to assess the comments and the future path of the post-election rally. Asia markets, meanwhile, were mixed during Friday's session.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Germany's DAX, Powell Organizations: U.S . Federal, CAC, Burberry, Labour, Aegon, Experian Locations: U.S, Asia
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Breaking from Wall Street, Asia-Pacific stocks mostly rose on Friday. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose 0.2%, in line with estimates from a Reuters poll, but that's lower than the second quarter's 0.5% increase. China retail sales pick back upChina's retail sales in October rose 4.8% year on year, reported the National Bureau of Statistics.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Music, Fair, CNBC, Trump, Nikkei, CSI, U.S . Federal, National Bureau of Statistics, Nvidia, Citi Locations: Dallas , Texas, Street, Asia, Pacific, China
European markets closed higher on Thursday as traders digested a slew of earnings and assessed fresh inflation data for a signal on the possible trajectory of interest rate cuts. The pan-European Stoxx 600 provisionally ended the day 1.08% higher, with all sectors and major bourses trading in the green. Shares of Burberry jumped more than 22%, after the British luxury house announced a sweeping overhaul strategy to stem declining sales. Investors are assessing the likelihood of another interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December after the latest U.S. inflation data. U.S. stocks were little changed Thursday, while Asia-Pacific markets traded in mixed territory overnight.
Persons: Donald Trump's Organizations: Burberry, Siemens, Bilfinger, Merck, Fincantieri, Metro Bank, Aviva, Deutsche Telekom, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal Locations: Veon, Asia, Pacific
The U.S. Federal Reserve could carry out fewer interest rate cuts than previously expected next year should President-elect Donald Trump's proposed global tariffs take hold, former Fed policymaker Loretta Mester said Tuesday. Markets trimmed their forecasts for rate cuts following Trump's election victory last week, with speculation growing around his tariff proposals and their implications for the world economy. It comes as concern is growing among global policymakers about the implications of Trump's fiscal plans, particularly on tariffs. "A trade war is the last thing we need," he continued. "If a trade war is to start, the European Union must not be unprepared as it was in 2018."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Loretta Mester, Mester, they're, Trump, It's, there's, , Olli Rehn, Rehn Organizations: U.S . Federal, UBS European Conference, Cleveland Federal Reserve, Reuters, Trump, Bank of Finland, European Central Bank policymaker, UBS, European Union Locations: London, U.S, Europe, European
Retirees' debt was rising before the pandemicRising debt levels were a problem for older Americans even before pandemic-era inflation. The typical family with heads age 75 and older had $1,700 of credit card debt in 2022, EBRI said in the August report. Those with heads age 65 to 74 had $3,500 of credit card debt, it said. Meanwhile, any spending cuts should be applied to reduce credit card debt, McClanahan explains. Boost income Retirees can also consider going back to work at least part time to earn more income, McClanahan said.
Persons: Bridget Bearden, Bearden, it's, EBRI, Louis, Carolyn McClanahan, She's, McClanahan, Cardholders, Cook, Ted Jenkin, Winnie Sun Organizations: Research Institute, Social Security, Senior Citizens League, Reserve Bank of St, Federal Reserve, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Planning Partners, CNBC's, CNBC, Facebook, Craigslist, Sun Group Wealth Partners Locations: Louis, Jacksonville , Florida, Irvine , California
People visit a riverside in front of the Lujiazui financial district, during the National People's Congress (NPC) in Shanghai, China, March 7, 2023. Aly Song | ReutersAsia-Pacific markets were set to climb on Tuesday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and major U.S. indexes continued their postelection rally. In Japan, the country will be releasing spending data for September, which will offer clues to the policy path ahead for the Bank of Japan. Strong spending data would support the case for the BOJ to raise rates, and vice versa. If stocks follow futures, the Hong Kong index will hit its highest level in about a month.
Persons: Aly Song, Australia's Organizations: National People's Congress, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, China's National People Congress, Bank of Japan, Nikkei Locations: Shanghai, China, Reuters Asia, Pacific, U.S, Asia, Japan, Chicago, Osaka, Hong Kong
Skyscrapers on the skyline in the financial district of Frankfurt, Germany, on Monday, Nov. 4, 2024. European markets were expected to open in mixed territory on Friday, as investors awaited corporate results and reacted to quarter-point interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England. It comes as market participants continue to take in political upheaval in Germany and Donald Trump's historic presidential election victory this week. Elsewhere, Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Friday, with investors closely monitoring the final day of China's National People's Congress, which is expected to announce fiscal stimulus measures. On Wall Street, U.S. stock futures gained marginally after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notched fresh records in a post-election rally.
Persons: Germany's DAX, Donald Trump's, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Christian Linder, Scholz Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, France's CAC, IG, People's Congress, Nasdaq Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Asia, Pacific, U.S
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Powell, in yesterday's press conference, maintained that "the election will have no effect on our policy decisions." According to the futures market, just 30.4% of traders think the Fed will cut rates again in January. "By December, we'll have more data, I guess one more employer report, two more inflation reports and lots of other data," Powell said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Andrew Caballero, Reynolds, Jim Reid, Trump, Scott Helfstein, Powell, we'll, that's, , Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han, Hakyung Kim, Jesse Pound, Alex Harring Organizations: Federal Reserve, AFP, Getty, CNBC, Deutsche, Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Global, Congress, Fed Locations: Washington , DC
European markets are heading for a mixed open as global investors digest Donald Trump's presidential election win and political upheaval in Germany. They also await monetary policy decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England. Global markets continue to react to Donald Trump's decisive election win, with U.S. stocks rallying Wednesday as Wall Street rejoiced the speedy conclusion of the presidential election. Central banks will be closely watched Thursday, with the Fed and BoE both expected to announce rate cuts. Scholz announced he would bring a vote of confidence to the German parliament on Jan. 15.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Germany's DAX, BoE, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Lindner's, Scholz Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, France's CAC, IG, Global, Fed Locations: Germany, Asia, Pacific, U.S
Treasury yields were slightly lower on Thursday as investors reacted to Donald Trump's sweeping election victory and awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield fell more than 1 basis point to 4.409% after jumping over 14 points to hit 4.433% in the previous session, notching its highest level since July. The yield on the 2-year Treasury fell 2 basis points to 4.247%, paring some of its gains after rising about 7 points to reach 4.274% on Wednesday. Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%.
Persons: Donald Trump's Organizations: U.S, U.S . Federal, Treasury Locations: U.S .
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following the Nov. 6-7, 2024, Federal Open Market Committee meeting at William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 7, 2024. ET, market pricing pointed toward a 67% chance of another quarter-point cut in December and a 33% chance of a pause that month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The probability of a quarter-point December rate cut rose to more than 70% following the meeting, while the chances of a pause slipped to nearly 29%. Future rate probabilities found in the CME FedWatch Tool are derived from trading in 30-day fed funds futures contracts. Meanwhile, the odds that the Federal Reserve would skip an interest rate cut in January was around 71%.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, , Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Federal Locations: Washington ,, U.S
Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, delivers a speech during the 2024 Lujiazui Forum on June 19, 2024 in Shanghai, China. BEIJING — The head of the People's Bank of China said in a closely watched meeting Tuesday that the central bank planned to maintain supportive monetary policy, according to state media. PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng added that the central bank intended to “increase the intensity of counter-cyclical monetary policy," state media said in Chinese, translated by CNBC. Finance Minister Lan Fo'an addressed the committee Monday about a plan to increase the local government debt limit in order to replace hidden debt, state media said. Lan on Tuesday also presented a report on managing state-owned assets, according to state media.
Persons: Pan Gongsheng, Lan Fo'an, Lan Organizations: People's Bank of China, People's Bank of, CNBC, National, Committee, Finance, U.S Locations: Shanghai, China, BEIJING, People's Bank of China, U.S . Federal
The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates in September, with further reductions expected, could prove to be a boon for the emerging economies of Southeast Asia. David Sumual, chief economist of Bank Central Asia, said Indonesia is one such country that could take advantage of both short-term and long-term Fed policy. Higher rates in the U.S. have traditionally been a negative for emerging markets as U.S. investors typically send their dollars home in search of decent yields. But on the flipside, when U.S. rates ease, it can boost emerging markets who see renewed flows into their economies. Global commodities (a cornerstone of many emerging markets) also tend to rise in price as the U.S. dollar drops on a more dovish outlook by the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Saurabh Agarwal, Warburg Pincus, CNBC's, David Sumual Organizations: U.S, Federal, Warburg, Bank Central, CNBC, Federal Reserve Locations: Southeast Asia, Asia, Bank Central Asia, Indonesia, U.S
The outcome of upcoming elections in the world's leading economy is set to ripple into global markets no matter who clinches leadership of the White House, UBS head Sergio Ermotti told CNBC on Wednesday. "We do expect, no matter who wins and the outcome, we do expect some market movements. Markets are bracing as voters flock to the polls on Nov. 5, with the U.S. holding both the world's foremost reserve currency and the largest stock exchange by market capitalization. Under a [Donald] Trump presidency, we see that as being inflationary on the back of his focus on immigration and on tariffs. But we don't see any outcome as being particularly growth positive.
Persons: Sergio Ermotti, CNBC's Annette Weisbach, Ermotti, Donald, Trump, Arun Sai, CNBC's Organizations: White House, UBS, CNBC, Swiss, U.S, U.S . Federal, . Treasury, Pictet Asset Management, Trump Locations: U.S
The U.S. Federal Reserve won't cut interest rates as much as markets expect because "embedded inflation" is too high, Blackrock CEO Larry Fink said Tuesday, speaking at a CEO-studded panel in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The Biden administration's legislation, such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, have pushed those efforts forward. "Today, I think we have governmental policies that are embedded inflationary, and, with that being said, we're not gonna see interest rates as low as people are forecasting," Fink said. The Fed cut its benchmark rate by 50 basis points in September, signaling a turning point in its management of the U.S. economy and in its outlook for inflation. In late-September reports, strategists at J.P. Morgan and Fitch Ratings predicted two additional interest rate cuts by the end of 2024, and expect such reductions to continue into 2025.
Persons: Andrew Ross Sorkin, Larry Fink, Saudi Arabia . Fink, " Fink, onshoring, we're, Fink, Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Carlyle, Morgan Stanley Organizations: BlackRock, New York Times DealBook, Jazz, Lincoln Center, U.S . Federal, Blackrock, Saudi, Future Investment Initiative, Biden, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, Fed, Fitch, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Standard Chartered Locations: New York City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, China, U.S
The outcome of this snap election signals that Ishiba may face difficulties in getting his party's policies passed in parliament. These include "more fiscal stimulus measures," and a cut in tax rates, Okamura added. His comments come amid expectations of the Bank of Japan leaving its rates unchanged at its meeting on Oct. 31. 'High-quality companies' Okamura is now betting on "higher quality companies with good pricing power." The five are also among the top holdings in the 19.1 billion yen (124.6 million) Japan Equity Engagement Fund .
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba's, Komeito, Izumi Devalier, CNBC's, Neuberger Berman's Kei Okamura, Okamura —, , Okamura, bode Organizations: Liberal Democratic Party, Bank of America, Nikkei, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Bank of Japan's, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Bank of Japan, Hitachi, Mitsubishi Logistics, Tokyo Marine Holdings, Japan Equity, Tokyo Marine Locations: Japan, Tokyo, shareholdings
Brendan McDermid | ReutersThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineLike an unwelcome ex-partner who shows up during the most inopportune times and refuses to leave, Treasury yields too have made a return and are hogging the market limelight. It's not inconceivable, then, that the strong economy might prompt the Fed to slow down, or even hold back, its rate cuts. The stock market slumped as yields rebounded.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Brent Schutte, Paul Hickey, Hickey, Wells, they'll, , Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han, Pia Singh, Brian Evans Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq Locations: TY, New York City, U.S
There's a common belief that lower borrowing costs benefit so-called growth stocks, as they're often capital-intensive. "History also suggests value should outperform growth, at least over the six months following the first rate cut," he said. If the economic situation becomes a "hard-landing," however, he said that growth stocks could outperform. If it normalizes (i.e., becomes more upward sloping), value should outperform growth," he said, referring to a situation where short-term rates are lower than long-term rates. "Lower multiple value stocks have greater upside and less risk than the pricier 'glamor growth' group for the foreseeable future," Ball said.
Persons: Adam Turnquist, Savita Subramanian, CNBC's, we've, Janjigian, Vanguard Russell, Venu Krishna, George Ball, Sanders Morris, Ball Organizations: U.S, Tech, CNBC Pro, LPL, BofA Securities, Greenwich Wealth Management, Vanguard, Index, Barclays, Krishna, Presidential Locations: U.S . Federal
Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty ImagesLONDON — The U.K. is likely to see interest rates drop at a faster pace than previously expected, according to economists who flagged key data releases that indicated inflationary pressures are finally easing. However, economists at Goldman Sachs in a Monday note forecast rate cuts "notably below market pricing." As a result, they see consecutive 25 basis point cuts taking the Bank Rate to 3% as early as September 2025, and to 2.75% in November next year. "Recent data have cemented expectations of another cut in interest rates in November. "That said, uncertainty around the economic outlook is high, and interest rate expectations will be sensitive to what the government announces in the Budget," Muir added.
Persons: Mike Kemp, Goldman Sachs, BOE, Price, , James Smith, Smith, David Muir, Muir, Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves Organizations: of England, Labour, Bank of England's, BOE policymakers, Bank of England, ING . Services, Reuters, International Energy Agency, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Moody's, Finance Locations: City of London, London, United Kingdom
Gold rose to a fresh high on Monday, extending its blazing rally amid uncertainties surrounding the U.S. election, simmering Middle East tensions and rate cuts by major central banks, while silver scaled a near 12-year peak. Gold rose to a fresh high on Monday, extending its blazing rally amid uncertainties surrounding the U.S. election, simmering Middle East tensions and rate cuts by major central banks, while silver scaled a near 12-year peak. Helped by bullion's rally, spot silver rose 1.3% to $34.08 per ounce, its highest since late 2012. Elsewhere, traders are pricing in a 99% chance of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut in November. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by a quarter point last week.
Persons: Tim Waterer, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Waterer Organizations: bullion's, KCM Trade, Investors, U.S, Federal, European Central Bank, Palladium Locations: China, Beirut, Israel
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