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A forward-looking gauge of economic activity continued to soften in December, though the overall rate of decline improved in the last six months of 2023. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index fell by 0.1% in December, below expectations, yet contracted by 2.9% over the past six months, down from 4.3% for the prior six-month period. “Despite the overall decline, six out of 10 leading indicators made positive contributions to the LEI in December. Moreover, other recent economic data – consumer sentiment, retail sales and jobless claims – has been positive and consistent with an expanding economy. The Fed indicated then that members of its monetary policy committee favored at least three cuts in rates this year.
Persons: LEI, Justyna, , , , Shaan Raithatha Organizations: The Conference, Congress, Federal, Commerce Department, Vanguard, Fed Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo
The Conference Board on Thursday said its Leading Economic Index, a measure that anticipates future economic activity, declined by 0.7% in June to 106.1 following a revised decrease of 0.6% in May. “Taken together, June’s data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement. The Conference Board reiterated its forecast that the U.S. economy is likely to be in recession from the current third quarter to the first quarter of 2024. "Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further," Zabinska-La Monica said. The Conference Board said the contraction in the LEI is accelerating, falling 4.2% over the last six months compared to 3.8% between June and December 2022.
Persons: ” Justyna, Monica, Safiyah Riddle, Andrea Ricci Organizations: The Conference, Board, Thomson Locations: U.S
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