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There’s nothing subtle about the Trump agenda. And there is a real fear that the Trump agenda could do more harm than good – especially on the inflation front. They point to study after study that finds Americans have borne almost the entire cost of Trump’s tariffs on Chinese products. And that estimate does not even include almost-definite retaliation from other nations who would respond to Trump tariffs with ones of their own. Harris has called for only partially extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump’s, Harris, Trump, Oprah, “ Trump, Joe Brusuelas, , That’s, Donald Trump, ” Trump, there’s, ” Kimberly Clausing, nonresident, Joe Biden, Trump’s, Organizations: New, New York CNN, RSM, CNN, Trump, Federal, Wall Street Journal, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Biden, Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute, Social Security, NBC Locations: New York, China, Mexico
CNN —Striking workers will take at least a 44,000-job bite out of the October jobs report, according to new data released Friday. That’s the biggest monthly employment knock in a year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest strike report. “So, our forecast is for a 120,000 increase in total employment, which is fine on its own. A little over two weeks ago, as the Southeast was reeling from the destruction laid by Hurricane Helene, Florida was bracing for even worse from the monstrous Hurricane Milton. The BLS’ reference period for the jobs report is the pay period that includes the 12th of the month.
Persons: what’s, ” Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Milton, Helene, Helene — Organizations: CNN —, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Boeing, RSM, CNN, Federal Reserve, BLS Locations: Hurricane, Florida
But as we wind down 2024, one thing appears clear: The naysayers on Team Hard Landing got it wrong. The “soft landing” versus “hard landing” metaphor — perhaps overused but visually handy — refers to the economy as an airplane and the Fed as the pilot. Pull the right levers at the right time, and you get a nice comfortable soft landing, with inflation cooling and the labor market thriving. He was far from alone in thinking that a soft landing was little more than a fantasy. “We should just drop the soft landing versus hard landing discourse and start talking about a robust expansion at mid-cycle,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, told Schwab Network in an interview.
Persons: CNN Business ’, everyone’s, , Sung Won Sohn, we’d, ” Aaron, , there’s, Justin Wolfers, Bill Dudley, “ I’ve, Dudley, Larry Summers, they’re, Joe Brusuelas Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Loyola Marymount University, Fed, . Upjohn Institute, Employment Research, ICYMI, Bureau of Labor Statistics —, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Bloomberg, RSM, Schwab Network Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
“Interpreting economic data is like interpreting a Monet painting in the best of times,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CNN in an interview. “When President Biden takes credit for all jobs and says Trump lost all the jobs? “And until it does, we won’t have a real good sense of what the new metrics are that reflect the direction in the economy and consumer confidence.”Twenty years ago, presidential elections came down to “jobs, jobs, jobs,” Brusuelas said. “They’re going to be thinking, ‘Wait a minute, all this money’s going into this and can replace the job that guys like me do? For the average person, the economic data only means so much anyways, Brusuelas said, adding that it comes down to “protein and petrol” versus percentage points.
Persons: Monet, ” Mark Zandi, it’s, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, “ Trump, Biden, ” Zandi, , Trump, , Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, “ That’s, It’s, They’re, ’ ”, Brusuelas Organizations: CNN, Moody’s, Trump, RSM, Democrat, Nvidia, Locations: what’s
Economists were expecting the annual overall inflation rate to tick higher, to 3.2% from the 3.1% headline reading the month before, according to FactSet consensus estimates. Despite the acceleration, the annual rate of consumer-level inflation is down considerably from December 2022’s rate of 6.5%; additionally, a closely watched measure of underlying inflation slowed further. In December, core goods prices were flat, an apparent stalling out after six months of declines. Rising shelter costs have kept core services elevated. The central bank has a target inflation rate of 2%, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which has its latest reading due out later this month.
Persons: , ” Wendy Edelberg, ” “, , Brian Coulton, Fitch, ” Scott Anderson, Jerome Powell, Joe Brusuelas, Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, BLS, The Hamilton Project, Brookings, CNN, Federal, BMO, CPI, PCE, RSM Locations: New York, November’s
Minneapolis CNN —For the first time in more than 12 months, the pace of consumer price hikes accelerated on an annual basis. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.2% for the year through July, up from June’s 3% annual increase, according to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% from June and was up 4.7% from the year-ago period. July is the the fourth consecutive month that annual core CPI has eased, and the 4.7% rate landed 0.1 percentage points below consensus expectations. Shelter prices rose 0.4% month on month and were up 7.7% for the year ending in July.
Persons: “ Don’t, , Julia Pollak, Joe Biden, ” Biden, “ We’ve, Kurt Rankin, Dow, , Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Tamara Charm, Brandon Bell, Danielle DiMartino Booth, DiMartino Booth, — CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, CPI, Federal Reserve, PNC, Nasdaq, RSM US, CNN, San, Services, , McKinsey, Quill Intelligence, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Locations: Minneapolis, June’s, San Francisco, Austin , Texas
Minneapolis CNN —The US job market cooled back down in June, adding just 209,000 jobs, and fueling optimism that the economy is on course to nail that elusive soft landing of lowering inflation without triggering a recession. That being said, last month’s job growth still outpaces the pre-pandemic average. “The job growth is slowing, but I don’t actually think that’s necessarily a bad thing,” Rucha Vankudre, senior economist for labor market analytics company Lightcast, told CNN. “In the tug of war between the labor market and the economy, there is still a push and pull, yet the labor market remains strong,” Becky Frankiewicz, president and chief commercial officer of ManpowerGroup, said in commentary issued Friday. In June, sectors such as government, as well as health care and social assistance, saw the biggest job gains: 60,000 and 65,200, respectively.
Persons: Rucha Vankudre, We’re, Becky Frankiewicz, ManpowerGroup, , Lightcast’s Vankudre, ” “, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, “ We’re, Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNN, , Federal Reserve, Service, BLS, RSM, Fed Locations: Minneapolis
The case for a 2023 US recession is crumbling
  + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
New York CNN —Many CEOs, investors and economists had penciled in 2023 as the year when a recession would hit the American economy. But the case for a 2023 US recession is crumbling for a simple reason: America’s jobs market is way too strong. Zandi is growing more confident that 2023 won’t be the year when a downturn will begin. “We’re running out of time for a 2023 recession,” Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan, told CNN. Friday’s jobs report did offer some conflicting signals, especially in the household survey, which economists put less weight on because it tends to be noisier.
Persons: Mark Zandi, won’t, ” Zandi, , Justin Wolfers, “ We’ve, payrolls, Wolfers, They’ve, ” Wolfers, ” Macy’s, Zandi, Joe Brusuelas, Morgan Stanley Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Moody’s, CNN, University of Michigan, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bank of America, Challenger, RSM Locations: New York,
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