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☆ $100 oil could be the October surprise no one wanted
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —The Middle East is in chaos, and the oil market is remarkably calm about it. The chill reaction in the oil market reflects a boy-who-cried-wolf mindset that has set in. Even just two years ago, oil prices skyrocketed to $130 a barrel in March 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. Oil prices skyrocketed in 2019 when Saudi oil facilities were damaged in an attack that US officials blamed on Iran. A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices above $100 a barrel, according to ClearView.

Persons: ”, Bob McNally, “, It’s, McNally, George W, Bush, Israel, ” Helima, Joe Biden, Croft, internationalize, Kevin Book, ClearView, it’s, Biden Organizations: New, New York CNN, Investors, Rapidan Energy Partners, Israel, RBC Capital Markets, CNN, CIA, ClearView Energy Partners, International Energy Agency, RBC, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Citigroup, Citi Locations: New York, Iran, China, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, United States, ” Helima Croft, Ukraine, Israel, Saudi, Strait, Hormuz, Riyadh, Persian

But the calm could be short lived, as world leaders and markets focus on Israel’s response. Military clashes don’t always sink the markets, as was the case when Hamas attacked Israel in October and Israel retaliated. “We may be entering one of the most treacherous geopolitical eras since World War II,” Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s C.E.O., warned last week. “Take the win,” President Biden reportedly told Israel’s embattled prime minister after the attack was rebuffed with American help. Iran has signaled that the attack was a one-and-done, but Israel’s war cabinet hasn’t indicated its next move.

Persons: Israel, ” Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s, Benjamin Netanyahu, Biden, hasn’t, Helima Croft Organizations: JPMorgan, ”, RBC Capital Markets Locations: Israel, Ukraine, United States, Iran

The noise is eerily reminiscent of Russian drone strikes on Ukraine, but this episode was recorded closer to Moscow than to Kyiv. As the object comes closer, it becomes clear: This is a Ukrainian drone, flying over Russian territory. Seconds later, the drone dives from the sky, smashing into a pipe-covered tower at a Russian oil refinery, exploding on impact. The strike on March 13, one of several on this facility alone, was part of a concerted Ukrainian effort to target Russian oil refineries with long-range drones. Ukrainian drones like these are now equipped with a basic form of Artificial Intelligence, according to a source close to Ukraine’s drone program.

Persons: CNN —, “, ”, Noah Sylvia, ” Sylvia, Reuters Chris Lincoln, Jones, ‘, we’ve, Helima Croft, ” Croft, Volodymyr Zelensky, Brent, Croft, Vasco Cotovio, they’re, Vasyl Maliuk, Putin Organizations: CNN, “, Royal United Services Institute, Reuters, Ukrainian Defense Intelligence, Security Service of Ukraine, Kyiv, Intelligence, Autonomy, RBC Capital Markets, Ukraine, Washington, RBC Locations: Ukraine, Moscow, Kyiv, Ukrainian, Ryazan, Ryazan region, Russia, British, ” Ukraine, United States, Washington

☆ The oil market is very chill about the chaos in Russia. Should it be?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Oil prices are, incredibly, lower today than they were before the short-lived uprising in Russia — one of the world’s most important players in the oil market. But some oil market veterans wonder if the pendulum has now swung too far in the other direction. An actual disruption to Russia’s oil flows would be a game-changer for the oil market, and perhaps the world economy. That country’s civil war shut down oil export terminals — and even though Libya’s output is much smaller than that of Russia, oil prices shot higher. For now, the oil market is betting there won’t be a repeat of the Libya unrest in Russia.

Persons: Wagner, Russia won’t, Vladimir Putin’s, Jerome Powell, Powell, Putin, ” Helima Croft, ”, Croft, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Bob McNally, George W, Bush, ” McNally, Prigozhin, “, ” Croft, Obama Organizations: New York CNN Business, CIA, RBC Capital Markets, CNN, Rapidan Energy Group, RBC, Strategic Petroleum Reserve Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, China, Libya

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