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NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday. Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide. Political Cartoons View All 1277 ImagesHigh rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. Expectations are split among economists on when the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates, something that can relieve pressure on the economy and act like steroids for financial markets.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, ” Ellen Zentner Organizations: National Association for Business Economics, University of Arkansas, Nationwide, Federal, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
Retail sales fell 0.1% last month after jumping a strong 0.9% in September, according to a report released Wednesday by the Commerce Department. Excluding sales of gas and autos, retail sales ticked up 0.1%. “The October retail sales report was stronger than expectations, but confirmed a slowdown in consumption,” Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note to clients. Restaurants and bars reported a 0.3% sales increase, though that was much lower than September's 1.6% gain. The government’s monthly retail sales report offers only a partial look at consumer spending; it doesn’t include many services, including health care, travel and hotel lodging.
Persons: , ” Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Commerce Department, Consumer, Walmart, Target, Federal Reserve, National Retail Federation Locations: U.S, Europe, United States
The Federal Reserve could be about to call time on its rate-hiking campaign, according to Morgan Stanley's top economist. That's because a government shutdown could rob the central bank of key economic data. "In monetary policy making, uncertainty tends to lead to policy paralysis," she told Bloomberg's "What Goes Up" podcast. "If it's a full government shutdown, then you don't really get any of the government data," Zentner added. Around 40% of traders expect the central bank to hike borrowing costs again before the end of this year, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's, ” Ellen Zentner, Ellen Zentner, Bloomberg's, Zentner Organizations: Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, Washington
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