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Trump and the GOP have denied the tariffs would be inflationary, pointing to Trump’s success in imposing tariffs in his first term without reigniting inflation. Yet those tariffs, at $300 billion on selected Chinese goods, were much more targeted than the $3 trillion worth of blanket tariffs Trump is now expected to propose. And the inflationary environment is different now, too: During Trump’s first term, inflation only briefly ever climbed above 2%. It was Trump who appointed Powell to lead the Federal Reserve in his first term. But Trump has signaled a willingness this year to abandon the long-running principle of maintaining the Fed as an independent body.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump’s, Trump, ’ Anna Kelly, David Seif, Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Trump, ” Seif, Seif Organizations: Federal, Wall, Federal Reserve, Nomura Holdings, Trump, GOP, Republican National Committee, Nomura, Fed, Bloomberg, Chicago Economic, Reuters Locations: China
London CNN —President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed protectionist policies, including hefty tariffs, will hurt Europe’s economic standing — leaving crisis-hit Germany particularly vulnerable, Goldman Sachs predicts. Goldman Sachs expects gross domestic product across the 20 countries that use the euro to expand 0.8% next year, down from the 1.1% it forecast previously. Goldman Sachs’ central expectation is for “a more limited set of tariffs on European economies,” targeting primarily their auto exports. Goldman Sachs now expects the German economy to grow only 0.5% next year because of trade tensions, just over half the 0.9% growth it forecast previously. “For European businesses, Trump’s return to the White House implies considerable trade policy risks and geopolitical uncertainty,” Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding wrote in a note Thursday.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Goldman Sachs, Trump’s, Trump, , Holger Schmieding, Organizations: London CNN —, NATO, Republican, European Union, Volkswagen, VW Locations: Germany, United States, Europe, Ukraine, China
Automotive revenue increased 2% to $20 billion from $19.63 billion in the same period a year earlier and is about flat since late 2022. Energy generation and storage revenue soared 52% to $2.38 billion, while services and other revenue, which includes revenue from non-warranty repairs of Tesla vehicles, jumped 29% to $2.79 billion. Earlier this month, Tesla reported third-quarter vehicle deliveries of 462,890. While deliveries increased 6% from a year earlier, they fell shy of analysts’ expectations and followed two straight quarters of year-over-year declines. “Despite ongoing macroeconomic conditions, we expect to achieve slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 2024,” the company said in its earnings deck Wednesday.
Persons: Tesla, Elon Musk, FactSet, Musk, ” Tesla, , Kelley, Vaibhav Taneja, Li Auto, Donald Trump, Trump, doesn’t Organizations: Revenue, Energy, that’s, California Public Utilities, Li, Ford, General Motors, Trump, Nasdaq Locations: Texas, California, Bay, U.S, China, Harrisburg , Pennsylvania
But by the end of the day, his net worth jumped by $17 billion to $201 billion, the index reported, calling it his third-biggest daily increase ever. That market, which accounted for 31% of total revenue last year, is dominated by China. Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng index has added just over 12% so far this week, while mainland China’s blue-chip CSI300 has gained more than 15%. However, experts urged investors to be cautious as officials must still come up with ways of stabilizing the property market, which once accounted for as much as 30% of economic activity. It began to cool in 2019 and fell into a deep trough about two years later, after a government-led clampdown on developers’ borrowing.
Persons: Bernard Arnault isn’t, Arnault, LVMH, , Nomura, Xi Jinping, Pan Gongsheng, Pan Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, LVMH, Bloomberg, Markets, People’s Bank of China Locations: China, Hong Kong, LVMH, Paris, Asia, “ Beijing
That’s precisely why the Fed is poised to cut interest rates in September for the first time since 2020. Therein lies the one question on everyone’s mind: How aggressively will the Fed ultimately cut rates? A high threshold for jumbo rate cutsThe Fed makes its decisions on interest rates consistent with what’s happening in the economy. Fed officials have mostly signaled that they’re finally ready to cut rates, but some have still expressed some hesitance. But, for now, there’s no emergency demanding the Fed cut rates aggressively next month, or any time later in the year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, pare, Price, Powell, “ They’re, ” Tani Fukui, they’re, Raphael Bostic, ” Powell, Ryan Sweet, Sweet, That’s Organizations: Washington CNN, Labor Department, Kansas City Fed, Fed, Traders, MetLife Investment Management, CNN, Atlanta Fed, Citi, Oxford Economics Locations: Unemployment, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, launched the probe in October to establish whether Chinese EV prices are artificially low because of subsidies and so hurt European carmakers. Europe is the main destination for Chinese EV exports. The new EV tariffs are likely to kick off intense negotiations between Beijing and Brussels aimed at averting a damaging trade war. Many of them manufacture cars in China and then sell them in Europe, a set-up that will be more costly as a result of the higher tariffs. Alternatively, Beijing could pledge investment into EU countries and promise better market access in China for EU firms, the Rhodium analysts wrote.
Persons: ” Will Roberts, BYD, Roberts, , Olaf Scholz, , Joe Biden, Olesya Dmitracova, Mark Thompson, Shawn Deng, Alex Stambaugh Organizations: London CNN, European Union, European Commission, Commission, Volvo, SAIC, EV, EU, Rho Motion, China’s Ministry of Commerce, Rho, Renault’s, CNN, , France EU, Group Locations: China, Beijing, European, Brussels, Washington, EU, Europe, Renault’s Dacia, “ Beijing, Germany, France, Spain, United States, Hungary, London, Hong Kong
Hong Kong CNN —China has unveiled wide-ranging measures to rescue its property sector, including asking local governments across the country to buy unsold homes from beleagured developers and easing rules on purchases. In a coordinated move, the People’s China of China (PBOC) announced that it will set up a nationwide program to provide 300 billion yuan ($41.5 billion) in loans to fund state purchases of unsold homes. The 300 billion yuan provided by the central bank could eventually underpin 500 billion yuan ($69 billion) worth of credit to support such purchases, she estimated. Expectations that Beijing was preparing a plan to have local governments across the country buy millions of unsold homes have successfully buoyed China stocks. On Friday, He also urged local governments to buy back or directly purchase land that has been sold to developers but not yet used.
Persons: Lifeng, Tao Ling, Larry Hu, , Société Générale Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Communist, China Real Estate Business, Macquarie Group, Reuters, provident Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing
The increase follows falls of 0.3% in the fourth quarter and 0.1% in the third quarter of last year. The Bank of England now expects UK GDP to expand by 0.5% this year, double the pace forecast in February, according to projections published Thursday. A growing economy could, however, delay the interest rate cuts widely expected this year. “Stronger GDP growth raises the risk of stronger demand pressures on inflation,” analysts at Nomura wrote in a note, adding that Friday’s GDP release “casts doubt” over a cut in June. Annual UK inflation came in at 3.2% last month, a sharp slowdown from a rate above 10% about a year ago.
Persons: Rishi Sunak, Sunak, Nomura, , Andrew Bailey, Bailey Organizations: London CNN, Gross, Office, National Statistics, Conservative Party, Labour Party, The Bank of England, P Global . Service, Bank of England Locations: United Kingdom
Hong Kong CNN —China has reported a surge in tourism during the just concluded Labor Day holiday, but travelers cut back on their spending, in a sign that consumption in world’s second largest economy remains sluggish. That was 28% more than the number of trips taken during the Labor Day holiday period in 2019, which lasted only four days. This year’s Labor Day tourism revenue was 166.89 billion yuan ($23.6 billion), only 13.5% higher than the 2019 level. Passengers at Nanjing Railway Station in East China's Jiangsu province on May 5, the last day of the Labor Day holiday. On Monday, a private sector survey showed that the Caixin/S&P Global services PMI fell to 52.5 in April from 52.7 in the previous month.
Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Labor, Tourists, Ministry of Culture, Tourism, Passengers, Nanjing Railway, PMI, TD Securities, P Global, National Bureau, Statistics Locations: China, Hong Kong, Nanjing, East China's Jiangsu
Hong Kong stocks are back from the dead. Here’s why
  + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Hong Kong CNN —Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index surged more than 7% in April as the best-performing major index in the world. The valuation of Hong Kong stocks has also become more “compelling” relative to the rest of the Asian region after the pullback last year, said Zhikai Chen, head of Asian equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management. He added that there is a shift in investors’ sentiments as Chinese economic data turned more positive. Innes said global investors are currently “underweight” in Chinese markets, including Hong Kong, because of geopolitical tensions and concerns surrounding potential fallout from the upcoming US elections. Stock exchange data showed that southbound investors (meaning investment from mainland China into Hong Kong) have bought nearly $20 billion of Hong Kong-listed stocks in March and the first three weeks of April on a net basis.
Persons: , Kelly Chung, Zhikai Chen, Stephen Innes, David Chao, Nomura, Xiaomei Chen, Angelina Lai, Innes, Kong, BNP Paribus Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Hong, Value Partners, BNP, Management, P Global, PMI, Kong's, Reuters, US, People’s Bank of, HK, Locations: China, Hong Kong, United States, Beijing, India, James’s, People’s Bank of China
It had hit an all-time high of $2,431 per ounce on Friday because of fears of a potential attack by Iran on Israel. US gold futures also added 0.1% on Monday. The Middle East was plunged into uncharted waters after Iran launched scores of missiles toward Israel late Saturday. Before Iran’s attack, US stocks ended Friday sharply lower, as Wall Street worried about escalating tension in the Middle East. Dow futures rose 80 points, or 0.2%, in Asian hours on Monday.
Persons: Kospi, Brent, Joe Biden Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, Nikkei, ANZ, Dow, Nasdaq Locations: Hong Kong, Iran, Israel, Shanghai, Syria, East
New York CNN —Shares of New York Community Bank (NYCB) fell by as much as 20% in after-hours trading on Thursday after the beleaguered regional lender said in a filing it had identified “material weakness” in the company’s controls. The issues caused a $2.4 billion loss to shareholders last quarter, NYCB said. The bank also announced that Alessandro DiNello, its recently appointed executive chairman, will be the new president and CEO, effective immediately. In the same filing, NYCB disclosed Hanif (Wally) Dahya resigned from serving as director of the board. In his February 25 resignation letter, he said he “did not support the proposed appointment” of DiNello to president and CEO.
Persons: NYCB, Alessandro DiNello, Thomas Cangemi, Hanif, Wally, Dahya, , DiNello, Marshall Lux, Chase Organizations: New, New York CNN, New York Community Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, Securities and Exchange Commission Locations: New York, Silicon
Washington, DC CNN —The US economy is set to reap considerable benefits from Americans taking popular medications used for weight loss, including Ozempic and Wegovy, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a recent research report. Originally developed to treat type 2 diabetes, they proved to be highly effective at helping people shed weight in clinical trials. (Ozempic has not been approved for weight loss by regulators, though Wegovy, a similar drug, has.) Goldman Sachs argues that since poor health unambiguously weighs on the economy, improving health outcomes due to GLP-1s could lower costs and boost productivity, shoring up economic output. For some Americans who are obese but don’t have diabetes, obtaining those drugs has become difficult, if not impossible.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Eli Lilly, Jody Dushay, Beth, Doug Langa, they’ve Organizations: DC CNN, Government, Novo Nordisk, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical, CNN Locations: Washington, United States, North America, Novo
Hong Kong CNN —China’s central bank has cut its key mortgage reference rate by a record amount, as it ramps up efforts to stem a prolonged property crisis. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced Tuesday that it would cut its five-year loan prime rate (LPR) from 4.2% to 3.95%, while keeping the one-year LPR unchanged at 3.45%. The 25 basis point cut to the five-year LPR is the biggest reduction the central bank has made since it revamped its LPR system in 2019. The latest cut was also the first reduction to the five-year LPR since June 2023. “Today’s 25 (basis point) cut to the five-year LPR is clearly aimed at supporting the housing market,” analysts from Capital Economics said in a note on Tuesday.
Persons: , Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, People’s Bank of China, Capital Economics, Zhongrong Trust, State Administration of Foreign Exchange Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen
BANGKOK (AP) — Share were mostly higher in Asia on Thursday after the S&P 500 neared the 5,000 level for the first time. Hong Kong’s benchmark fell while Shanghai advanced after China replaced its top stock market regulator. Late Wednesday, China's top stock regulator was replaced by a former chairman of the Shanghai Stock Exchange as part of those efforts. On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite index gained 1.3% to 2,865.90 and the Shenzhen Components index in China's smaller main market also added 1.3%. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, coming within a fraction of a point of the 5,000 level before ending the day at 4,995.06.
Persons: Wu Qing, Yi Huiman, Hang Seng, Australia's, SET, Snapchat Organizations: Shanghai Stock Exchange, China Securities Regulatory Commission, Communist Party, Nikkei, Ford, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, . New York Community Bancorp, Signature Bank, Ford Motor, Enphase Energy, CVS Health, Corp, Vans, New York Mercantile Exchange, Brent Locations: BANGKOK, Asia, Shanghai, China, Tokyo, Beijing, Shenzhen, Seoul, India, Wall
PinnedThe labor market is looking more like 2019 every month, and that’s not a bad place to be. The share of people quitting their jobs, which surged during the pandemic, is back to 2019 levels. A broad measure of wages, salaries and benefits known as the Employment Cost Index has been falling since early 2022. Employment growth has been narrowing, with sectors like education, health care and government, which vary less with economic cycles, powering most of the gains. Most of those displaced workers have shifted to positions where their skills are still needed, keeping joblessness in check — so far.
Persons: that’s, , , Satyam Panday Organizations: Labor Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics
But geopolitical tensions are growing and Wall Street appears to be underestimating their potential impact on the global economy and markets. The United States and China are squabbling about trade, particularly high-powered AI chips that both believe carry consequences for national security. Less trade could mean lower supplies to meet demand — and that could be bad news for inflation around the world. Bank of America also gave geopolitical risk a top spot on its list of surprises that could affect markets in 2024. It’s the worst start to a year for Chinese stocks since 2016, when investors were ditching their holdings following a market crash in 2015.
Persons: , , Jamie Dimon, dory, he’s, Anna Cooban, Laura He, Hong, Premier Li Qiang, Ken Cheung, Catherine Thorbecke Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, BlackRock, Shipping, CNBC, Economic, Bank of America, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, , Shenzhen Component, Premier, Mizuho Bank, MIT’s Computer, Artificial Intelligence Locations: New York, Russia, Ukraine, United States, China, Taiwan, Suez, Iranian, Pakistan, Iran, Europe, Asia, Drewry, Yemen, Davos, Switzerland, Wall, Shanghai, Shenzhen
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Uber's stock is set to join the S&P 500 index later this month, the latest sign that the ride-hailing and delivery company is turning its business around after struggling through much of the pandemic. Inclusion in the S&P 500 can be a big boost for a stock because the index is widely tracked by many funds designed to mirror the holdings of the S&P 500, which is at the heart of many 401(k) accounts. Political Cartoons View All 1277 ImagesThe pandemic severely stymied Uber’s ride-hailing business as government lockdowns kept most people at home. Uber’s ride-hailing service, meanwhile, has since gradually bounced back. It wasn't until the third quarter when Uber qualified for inclusion in the S&P 500, with a trailing 12-month net income of $1.05 billion.
Persons: Dow, That’s, Uber’s, lockdowns, Uber, Wedbush Organizations: ANGELES, Dow Jones Indices, Uber Technologies Inc Locations: San Francisco
Stocks won't bring much joy in 2024, according to Wells Fargo. The bank expects the benchmark S&P 500 to trade within a narrow range the whole year. AdvertisementInvestors shouldn't count on the stocks' stellar run lasting much longer with higher interest rates likely to weigh on the market for all of 2024, according to Wells Fargo. In a research note published Monday, strategists at the bank said they expected the S&P 500 to be trading at between 4,600 and 4,800 points by the end of 2024. Wells Fargo's latest outlook puts it on the more bearish side of Wall Street, with many analysts saying the S&P 500 could have another strong year with the US economy looking likely to avoid a long-predicted recession.
Persons: , Austin Pickle, Wells, Chris Harvey –, they're Organizations: “ Equity, Service, Fargo Investment Institute, Fed, CNBC, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets Locations: Wells Fargo, Fargo, Wall
Maybe I won’t set up that factory. These companies — the small, private enterprises that are responsible for roughly half the private-sector employment in the country — are already having to pay much more for debt. They fund their operations using cash from sales, business credit cards and private loans — all of which are generally more expensive options for financing payrolls and operations. Now, they’re paying 10 percent interest on short-term loans. Hiring within these firms has slowed, and their credit card balances are higher than they were before the pandemic, even as spending has slowed.
Persons: Ms, Sheth Organizations: National Federation of Independent Business, Bank of America Locations:
Ukrainian forces have stepped up assaults across the Dnipro river near the southern city of Kherson, carrying out raids into Russian-controlled territory on the eastern bank. The increased activity has prompted speculation among analysts and in Russian military circles that Kyiv might be planning a more ambitious effort to open a new front in the war. In recent days, Western military analysts have cited geolocated video footage that shows Ukrainian forces operating in a number of locations deeper behind enemy lines than previously witnessed. “Ukrainian actions appear to be larger than previously observed tactical raids,” analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research institute, said on Thursday night. The Ukrainian military has remained largely silent on the amphibious operations into Russian-held territory near Kherson, and the extent of its ambitions with the river crossings are unknown.
Organizations: Institute for, Ukrainian Locations: Dnipro, Kherson, Russian, Washington
[1/2] Christopher Luxon, Leader of the National Party, speaks at the New Zealand National Party’s election campaign launch in Auckland, New Zealand, September 3, 2023. That will stiffen the challenge for the nation's two major parties, the centre-left Labour Party and the centre-right National Party, to deliver its agenda where rising prices and government debt have been hot-button election issues. At the same time government borrowing costs are increasing and the country’s ballooning current account deficit poses a risk to the country’s credit rating. Kelly Eckhold, chief economist at Westpac New Zealand said tough fiscal choices face an incoming government. ($1 = 1.6551 New Zealand dollars)Reporting by Lucy Craymer Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Christopher Luxon, David Rowland, won’t, Kelly Eckhold, , Lucy Craymer, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: National Party, New Zealand National, REUTERS, Rights, Labour Party, Bank, Bank of New, National, Statistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Labour, NZ, Westpac New Zealand, Zealand, Thomson Locations: Auckland , New Zealand, Bank of New Zealand, New Zealand, Zealanders, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
New Zealand's Economy Poses Challenge for Election Victor
  + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Oct. | At P.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +4 min
That will stiffen the challenge for the nation's two major parties, the centre-left Labour Party and the centre-right National Party, to deliver its agenda where rising prices and government debt have been hot-button election issues. “The Reserve Bank will need the government to do its bit if it is to cap the cash rate at the 5.5% it currently suggests,” analysts at Bank of New Zealand said in a note. DEBT, AND MORE DEBTThe biggest challenge for many New Zealanders is mortgage rates. At the same time government borrowing costs are increasing and the country’s ballooning current account deficit poses a risk to the country’s credit rating. Kelly Eckhold, chief economist at Westpac New Zealand said tough fiscal choices face an incoming government.
Persons: Lucy Craymer WELLINGTON, won’t, Kelly Eckhold, , Lucy Craymer, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Reuters, Labour Party, National Party, Bank, Bank of New, National, Statistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Labour, NZ, Westpac New Zealand, Zealand Locations: Bank of New Zealand, New Zealand, Zealanders, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Absorbing this “excess capacity” in the property sector will inevitably hurt China’s economic growth, according to Garcia-Herrero. The money from the sales funded their breakneck expansion, making real estate moguls some of the country’s richest people. The strategy largely worked until about three years ago when the Chinese government cracked down on excessive borrowing by the real estate industry because it was worried about the risk of financial instability. But overall, the property sector has contracted severely as it adjusts to a collapse in demand. “A fundamental rewiring of China’s economy will necessitate a focus on developing new industries, improving productivity, and bolstering rental markets,” said analysts from Stanford University and the ASPI.
Persons: , Alicia Garcia, Herrero, Garcia, they’re, Evergrande, Xu Jiayin, Xi Jinping, ” Mark Williams, Sheana Yue, Zichuan Huang, , — Michelle Toh Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Investment, Asia Pacific, Getty, Bank, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Regulators, Capital Economics, People’s Bank of China, Oxford Economics, Stanford University, Asia Society Policy Institute, Oxford Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Natixis, Wuhan, China's, Hubei, Japan
View of an entrance to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in Wellington, New Zealand November 10, 2022. “Interest rates are constraining economic activity and reducing inflationary pressure as required,” the central bank said in a statement. The past RBNZ rate hikes have sharply slowed New Zealand’s economy but recent data showed it was tracking above central bank expectations at 0.9% quarterly growth. The central bank releases a comprehensive update of economic indicators and the forecast official cash rate track when it publishes its quarterly Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), which is due on Nov. 29. “The Bank appears content to wait for restrictive policy settings to fully feed through to the real economy,” analysts at Capital Economics in a note.
Persons: Lucy Craymer, , Kelly Eckhold, Organizations: WELLINGTON, Reuters, Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, Bank of New Zealand, New Zealand, Westpac NZ, U.S . Federal Reserve, Capital Economics Locations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Wellington , New Zealand, Global, New Zealand
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