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Three Wall Street banks have taken differing views on gold's trajectory in 2025, reflecting the complex economic outlook. Goldman Sachs expects the price of the yellow metal to reach $3,000 per ounce by December 2025, saying "Go For Gold" in a note from Nov. 17. The gold price has declined by 7% since late October as the risk of a disputed U.S. election result diminished. While maintaining a positive outlook on gold, UBS warned that its gains — gold had risen 35% this year until November — could slow down. Goldman Sachs pointed to a fivefold increase in central bank gold purchases, driven by concerns about financial sanctions and sovereign debt sustainability.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump's, Goldman, Daan Struyven, Karen Ward, Ward, Arend Kapteyn, Bhanu Baweja, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Trump, JPMorgan Asset Management, UBS Locations: U.S, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Switzerland, Russia, Ukraine
"I think all roads lead to inflation," Jones told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Tuesday. "I'm long gold. I'm long bitcoin. I think commodities are so ridiculously underowned, so I'm long commodities. @GC.1 YTD mountain Gold, YTD The CBO expects deficits will hit $2.8 trillion by 2034, up from $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024.
Persons: Paul Tudor Jones, Jones, CNBC's, That's, Robin Hood, Donald Trump, Bitcoin Organizations: Trump, Nasdaq, Tudor Investment, Robin, Robin Hood Foundation, Congressional, Treasury, Federal, Metrics Locations: U.S
Price of gold is proving an unstoppable force lately
  + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold recently regained momentum after the Federal Reserve began its easing cycle with a half-percentage point rate cut last month. However, the latest upturn comes despite rebounds in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar too, which might be expected to take the wind from gold's sails. Higher yields typically make gold less attractive, as the metal doesn't offer any yield. The 10-year Treasury yield has soared to 4.08% from around 3.7% over the past month. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency's performance against the euro, Japanese yen and others, is up nearly 3% over the past month.
Persons: Gold, Andrew Brenner, Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Hayes Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, NatAlliance Securities, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Treasury Locations: NatAlliance
CNBC Daily Open: Hoping for a half-point cut
  + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Without any warning signs flashing red, it's difficult for the Fed to justify lowering rates by more than a quarter point. That's why some economists and analysts hope the Fed will cut by half a point. "But I suspect they'll cut 25," Zandi added.
Persons: Anna Moneymaker, Mark Zandi, they'll, Zandi, Hope, Jeff Cox, Hakyung Kim, Samantha Subin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Getty, CNBC, Dow, Moody's Locations: Washington , DC, U.S
Gold's rally to records shows no signs of slowing
  + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices just won't stop rising. Year to date, gold is up nearly 26% — outpacing the S & P 500's 18% gain. Since ETF holdings only increase gradually as the Fed cuts, this upside is not yet fully priced in." Investors seeking exposure to gold can obtain it through exchange traded funds, such as the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) . The fund, which tracks gold prices and charges 0.4% in fees, is up nearly 25% in 2024.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lina Thomas, Thomas, Christopher Danely Organizations: Reserve, Goldman, Miners, Gold Miners, Citigroup, Micron Technology
Gold is at a new record around $2,610 per ounce — more than ten times the low of just over $253 per ounce in 1999. @GC.1 ALL mountain Gold futures, long term Physical gold holders typically retain their assets through market fluctuations. The fundamental case A notable exception has been Saudi Arabia, which has historically acted as a liquidity source by buying gold when prices fell and selling as prices rose. In 2023, central banks purchased 1,037 metric tons of gold, with China buying nearly 225 tons, the largest amount since 1977. The trade As an alternative to buying gold directly, one could consider purchasing a longer-dated call option and selling a nearer-dated strangle to offset decay on the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) , which tracks the price of gold.
Persons: Carter Braxton Worth Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: U.S, Saudi Arabia, China, Central
Ray Dalio believes gold deserves a significant portion of one's portfolio, saying the precious metal is still appealing even at record highs. @GC.1 YTD mountain Gold futures "If you were neutral, gold is an under-owned, relatively attractive asset right near its highs in the market," he said. Lower rates typically benefit the non-interest bearing precious metal. Gold futures advanced 1.5% to $2,465.30, topping the previous high of $2,454.20 reached May 20. The futures rose as high as $2,467.30 an ounce on the session.
Persons: Ray Dalio, Dalio Organizations: Bridgewater Associates
Gold prices could hit $3,000 per ounce over the next 12 to 18 months if demand increases among large institutional investors, according to Bank of America commodity strategists. Central bank demand is also a positive sign, according to Bank of America. Monetary authorities are planning to increase their purchases of gold, according to the World Gold Council's central bank survey . Central banks are increasing gold reserves as a hedge against inflation, according to the survey. Monetary authorities are also reducing U.S. Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves amid worries about the dominance and health of the dollar, according to Bank of America.
Organizations: Bank of, Federal Reserve, Bullion Market, Bank of America, Monetary, World Gold, Treasury Locations: Central, China, Beijing, @GC
It's likely to further appreciate due to a lack of progress in narrowing the deficit, Tentarelli said. Historically, gold prices have been inversely correlated with real bond yields, meaning when yields decline, gold should rally further. "Even if there's no rate cuts, I like gold based on the macro of deficit spending," the Merrill Lynch alum said. In that event, investors will want to hold the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF, Tentarelli said. But, for most, the "smartest way" to play gold is through the ETF, Tentarelli said.
Persons: Larry Tentarelli, Tentarelli, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Federal Reserve, Costco, Treasury, @HG, Copper Miners Locations: yawning, Freeport, McMoRan, Monday's
Gold futures settled at a record high above $2,400 an ounce this week. The precious metal is coming off its third straight week of gains. Gold is often used as an inflation hedge because of its limited supply. @GC.1 YTD mountain Gold Professional speculators' net-long positions in gold futures and options hovered near the highest level since 2020 as of April 9, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's latest data. The hedge fund star revealed that not only did he own the popular SPDR Gold Trust fund (GLD), but he also bought physical bars.
Persons: James Steel, David Neuhauser, Neuhauser, Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn, Einhorn Organizations: Citi, Investors, HSBC Securities, Gold, Commodity, Livermore Partners, CNBC, Trust, Deutsche Bank Locations: Northbrook , Illinois
Gold could have room for further upside as tensions in the Middle East mount, according to JPMorgan. Spot gold has been on a tear in 2024 with a gain of more than 14%. Prices hit an all-time high of $2,448.80 per ounce intraday on Friday as investors braced for a further escalation in the Middle East. @GC.1 YTD mountain Gold hit a fresh all-time high on Friday, but JPMorgan thinks bullion has more room to run. "Given positioning and recent price action, mean reversion risk in gold still remains elevated in the near-term though geopolitics remain a bullish-skewed wildcard amid risks of an escalating retaliation cycle between Israel and Iran," Shearer said.
Persons: Gregory C, Shearer, " Shearer, Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Investors, Federal Reserve Locations: Iran, Israel, Damascus, Syria, @GC
"Gold ... has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative," Buffett said in his 2011 annual letter. Meanwhile, if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end." Gold hit a new, all-time high above $2,400 an ounce on Friday, enjoying its third straight week of gains. Silver buying spree Buffett's vocal criticism of gold doesn't mean that he's never dabbled in precious metals. In the late 1990s, the Ben Graham acolyte went on a big silver buying spree, with Berkshire owning 129.7 million ounces of silver.
Persons: — Warren Buffett, Buffett, Gold Buffett, Croesus, Berkshire Hathaway, Ben Graham acolyte Organizations: Oracle, Investors, Berkshire Locations: East, Europe, Asia, Omaha, United States
The result was a 1.5-percent weekly drop in the S & P 500 , with Friday's setback exacerbated at least somewhat by a collective clenching-up of risk markets on some geopolitical worry. This dynamic hasn't been reversed, but the signal has grown a bit staticky, draining some conviction from the macro bullish case with the S & P 500 still 24% above the October low. Bull market's backdrop First, it's a bull market, and not a particularly mature or excessively generous one yet. Yet both stocks are still outperforming the S & P this year. The S & P 500 closed Friday at exactly the same level of five weeks earlier, on March 8 – which was perhaps the moment of maximum investor confidence in the "we can have it all" thesis.
Persons: I've, Jerome Powell, Powell, Wall, it's, We're, John Butters, Fastenal, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, ICE, Treasury, CPI, Fed, Grainger, Citi
Gold has a chance to charge ahead of bitcoin as the flagship cryptocurrency hovers around the $70,000 level, according to Wolfe Research. However, bitcoin has also been mirroring its own moves from 2021, when the cryptocurrency rocketed twice to all-time highs, just before a deep pullback. "The gold vs. bitcoin ratio is nearing support while oversold on a weekly basis," said Ginsberg. "If our feeling on bitcoin is correct, and it continues to consolidate in this $60,000–$73,000 region, it may provide a good opportunity for gold to start outperforming." It has since returned to its highs and looks ready to reaccelerate, Ginsberg said, although selling pressure "has historically come on strong above $70,000."
Persons: bitcoin, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg Organizations: Wolfe Research Locations: bitcoin, U.S
If you're looking for your bitcoin to go to the moon, the window of opportunity may be slowly closing, according to BlackRock. "Certainly, returns going forward will come down," he said at the Bitcoin Investor Day conference in New York City Friday. That demand was "massive and clear" in 2023, when BlackRock filed to launch its iShares Bitcoin Trust. "I don't think we've seen the end of cycles in bitcoin," Mitchnick said. "[With] bitcoin, when the price goes up, the probabilities of success and adoption in some senses, as digital gold, are also changing," he said.
Persons: Robert Mitchnick, It's, , Mitchnick, CNBC's Ganesh Rao Organizations: BlackRock Locations: BlackRock, New York, @GC
Bitcoin is more like digital gold than a so-called "risk-on" asset, according to Robert Mitchnick, BlackRock's digital assets lead. For years, bitcoin's ability to behave in different ways at different times has stumped investors . "Historically bitcoin's long-term average correlation [to stocks] has been close to zero – slightly positive, but close to zero," he said. While the recent rally was spurred by the launch of U.S. bitcoin ETFs, some on Wall Street have suggested that it may have recently fused into the more macroeconomic-fueled gold rally . Risk and portfolio construction That, understandably, adds confusion for newcomers to bitcoin investing, who are drawn to its digital gold-like qualities.
Persons: Robert Mitchnick, BlackRock's, bitcoin, It's, Bitcoin, bitcoin rocketed, Mitchnick Organizations: New York City, Fed, BlackRock Locations: New York
A lower-risk way to play the gold breakout from here
  + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
We'll break down the rally in gold, why gold miners have been trailing it and the options trades I'm putting on from here accordingly. Investing in gold and silver mining companies, rather than purchasing the precious metals has frequently been promoted as a way to get "leverage" to the price of gold or silver. Notice that the share price of the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX ) tracking the companies, has declined more than 15.5% since the highs in April of 2023. GDX GLD mountain 2023-04-13 VanEck Gold Miners ETF (companies) vs. SPDR Gold shares ETF (commodity) It should be said that GDX and Newmont Corporation pay dividends, whereas gold itself does not. Additionally gold miners are sometimes located in suboptimal geographic locations/jurisdictions where they may be subject to geopolitical factors beyond the price volatility of the commodities they produce.
Persons: Warren Buffett Organizations: Gold Miners, Newmont Corp, Gold Miners ETF, SPDR, Newmont Corporation, Mining, Consumers Locations: Washington
Being that gold is priced in U.S. dollars and is very sensitive to moves in interest rates, gold is trading INVERSE to the U.S. dollar. So those macro relationships summed up; Stocks and gold are trading together Stocks and gold are trading inverse to the direction of interest rates and the U.S. dollar. Breaking down the gold chart Turning to the technicals of the gold market, I have some concerning analysis for stock market bulls, myself included. If the gold market does not break out above the highlighted $2356 level we may be setting up for a failure. If so, watch the reaction in the stock market - does it move lower with the failed breakout in gold?
Persons: it's, Elliott, Gordon, GBTC Organizations: U.S ., UUP, U.S
The Federal Reserve is poised to cuts interest rates this year and history shows that has pushed up precious metal prices, according to Bernstein analyst Bob Brackett. Traders are already moderating expectations for rate cuts, though gold has held steady so far, Brackett said. Indeed, respondents to CNBC's recent Fed survey now anticipate the central bank will cut rates fewer times this year and start the cycle later. "In general, the anticipation of more rate cuts often lead to a positive sentiment on gold and mining equities, while the expectation of fewer rate cuts tends to be negative," Brackett said. "Gold in the long term is generally observed to benefit from rate cuts," the analyst said.
Persons: Bernstein, Bob Brackett, Brackett, Bernstein's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal, Fed, Traders Locations: U.S
Investors betting on another strong year for gold may want to look at an obscure part of the market: gold streaming and royalty companies. "The profitability of the gold companies wasn't keeping pace with the rise in the gold price." MacRury echoed this sentiment, pointing to historical context as a reason he believes gold prices could hurtle towards new highs. "Past easing cycles over the last 20+ years have corresponded with strong gold prices, and we expect to see gold set new record highs in 2024," he wrote. Shares of Royal Gold popped 7% in 2023, but are down more than 10% in the past 12 months.
Persons: Carey MacRury, Adam Rozencwajg, Canaccord's, Rozencwajg, it's, MacRury, Leigh Goehring, Osisko Organizations: Barrick, CNBC, Royal, Miners, Royal Gold, Barrick Gold, Federal Reserve, Franco, Wheaton Precious Metals Locations: Newmont, Franco, Nevada, Brazil, Russia, China, India, Panama, Wheaton, U.S
Gold has formed a price chart pattern that has historically proven a bullish signal. The price pattern, known as a " golden cross ," is viewed on Wall Street as a momentum indicator of a positive trend to come. It occurs when the 50-day moving average price for an asset rises above the longer-term, 200-day moving average. What that means today is that 50-day moving average price of gold has risen to $1959.80, surpassing the 200-day moving average price of $1957.70. @GC.1 3M mountain Gold futures prices have climbed in the past three months.
Persons: , Nick Wells Organizations: Federal Reserve Locations: East, Eastern Europe
Here are 3 reasons to buy gold, according to UBS
  + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold stumbled this month after a strong start to the year. However, UBS Global Wealth Management sees more upside ahead. The precious metal is down about 2% in May, as optimism around a possible U.S. debt ceiling deal grows. "Based on the 1Q23 data from the World Gold Council, central banks are on track to buy around 700 metric tons of gold this year, much higher than the average since 2010 of below 500 metric tons," he wrote. Dollar weakness: The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency's performance against six others, is down 0.2% over the past year, which should be supportive for gold prices.
Gold prices are up 12% this year and are now trading at $2049 per troy ounce on the New York spot price market. Gold prices typically surge if markets expect low interest rates in a high inflationary environment. The strategist expects gold prices to reach $2,200 per ounce over the next 12 months. How to trade gold Doyle's preferred method for gaining exposure to gold is through exchange-traded commodities (ETCs), which are backed by physical gold. A number of ETCs for gold exist, such as the iShares Physical Gold ETC , Invesco Physical Gold , WisdomTree Core Physical Gold , Xtrackers Physical Gold ETC , and Xetra-Gold .
Over the past month, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has pulled in more than $1 billion of new money, according to FactSet. The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) , SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) , Abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL) and Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF (AAAU) have pulled in more than $400 million combined. Funds comprised of gold mining stocks have also been popular, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) pulling in about $200 million. GDX YTD mountain Gold mining ETFs are rallying in 2023. The gold mining funds from Sprott ( SGDM ) and iShares ( RING ) have seen similarly strong performance.
It's taken gold prices a long time to get this high — 5,000 years, give or take a few centuries — and it looks like the yellow metal could keep climbing. "Gold prices have benefited in recent weeks from safe haven demand amid concerns on the banking sector, as well as a view that the likelihood of a recession (i.e., hard landing) have materially increased. "Lower rates, coupled with inflation still well above the 2% target, would be positive for gold prices," he added. @GC.1 YTD line Gold price this year Tariq expects gold to average $1,925 an ounce in the second quarter, a 10% increase from Credit Suisse's previous target. Roque has a price target at $2,322, implying 14% upside from here.
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