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CNN —The shape of the US labor market is changing, job growth is slowing and new survey data released Monday shows that Americans are starting to feel increasingly unsettled about it all. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest survey on consumers’ labor market experiences and expectations showed that job, wage and benefits satisfaction all sank in July. Job offer activity held steady from July 2023, and the average expected likelihood of receiving at least one job offer increased from last year. Additionally, the average reservation wage (the lowest wage one would accept for a new job) remained well above July 2023 — and significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. Job growth has slowed, especially in recent months, as the US labor market has settled back into a more balanced state amid a slower-growing economic backdrop.
Persons: Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics
watch nowWho is falling behind on credit card billsThese borrowers "may have overextended during the pandemic," the New York Fed researchers said on a press call Tuesday. Delinquent borrowers are often renters, with shorter credit histories and lower credit limits, making them more likely to be financially vulnerable and miss a payment, the researchers said. Over the last year, roughly 9.1% of credit card balances transitioned into delinquency, the New York Fed found. Among the millennials transitioning into delinquency, many also entered the labor market during the Great Recession and may be experiencing the prolonged negative effects of graduating into an economic downturn, the New York Fed researchers said. Credit card rates top 20%
Persons: homeownership, Brett House, Ted Rossman Organizations: New York Fed, Columbia Business School
London CNN —At the beginning of the year, Federal Reserve officials projected they would cut interest rates three times this year. The labor-force participation rate has leveled off after a post-Covid boom, and the US immigration policy rate may soon become more restrictive, limiting potential new labor market participants. “Reducing our policy rate too soon or too quickly could result in a rebound in inflation, requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2% over the longer run.”Investors weren’t happy to hear it. That’s why not taking preemptive action when it’s not necessary is so important.”Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has also been particularly hawkish in his views. He also said rate hikes are “certainly not off the table.”Like Bowman and Kashkari, New York Fed President John Williams said rate hikes aren’t part of his baseline outlook.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, she’s, ” Bowman, Bowman, , Dow, Mary Daly, Daly, ” Daly, “ We’re, it’s, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari, John Williams, he’s Organizations: London CNN —, Federal Reserve, Exchange, London ., Federal, Market, Nvidia, San Francisco Fed, Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California, Chicago Fed, Minneapolis, Kashkari , New York Fed, Commerce Department Locations: London, San Francisco, Kashkari , New
Inflation rose about as expected in April, with markets on edge over when interest rates might start coming down, according to a measure released Friday that is followed closely by the Federal Reserve. Including the volatile food and energy category, PCE inflation was at 2.7% on an annual basis and 0.3% from a month ago. Goods prices rose 0.2% while services saw a 0.3% increase, continuing a normalization trend for an economy in which services and consumption provide much of the fuel. Personal income increased 0.3% on the month, matching the estimate, while spending rose just 0.2%, below the 0.4% estimate and off March's downwardly revised 0.7%. "The PCE Price Index didn't show much progress on inflation, but it didn't show any backsliding, either.
Persons: Dow Jones, Dan North, Jerome, Powell, I'm, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley, John Williams Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Labor Department, The Commerce Department, North America, Allianz Trade, Treasury, New York Fed
Americans now owe $1.12 trillion on their credit cards, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported Tuesday. Keeping up with credit card debt is getting more difficult. "Rent, when you have it, auto loans, utilities, these are all things consumers prioritize ahead of credit cards." As a result, credit card delinquency rates are higher across the board, the New York Fed and TransUnion found. Over the last year, roughly 8.9% of credit card balances transitioned into delinquency, the New York Fed reported.
Persons: Charlie Wise, TransUnion's, Young, Wise, TransUnion, Kassandra Martinchek Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Finance, Fed, Urban Institute Locations: TransUnion, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, , New
New data released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that as household debt balances grew during the first quarter, delinquencies also marched higher. Notably, the percentage of credit card balances in serious delinquency (90 days or more late) climbed to its highest level since 2012. The transitions into delinquency — especially serious delinquency — increased across all debt types, according to the report. Overall household debt grew by 1.1% during the first quarter to $17.69 trillion, according to data that is not adjusted for inflation. Credit card balances dipped (as they typically do post-holidays) by $14 billion to $1.12 trillion.
Persons: delinquencies, Joelle, Delinquencies Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, , Public Policy Research, New York Fed, Credit Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, York, New
Over the last year, roughly 8.9% of credit card balances transitioned into delinquency, the New York Fed found. Credit card rates top 20%At the same time, credit cards have become one of the most expensive ways to borrow money. As the federal funds rate rose, the prime rate did, as well, and credit card rates followed suit. "With the Fed likely to keep rates higher for longer, credit card rates should remain high for the foreseeable future," Rossman said. What to do if you're in credit card debt
Persons: Bankrate, Ted Rossman, Rossman Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
On a one-year basis, the expectation increased to 3.3%, up 0.3 percentage point from March and the highest since November 2023. However, expected increases in housing prices are particularly troublesome for policymakers who expected shelter costs to ease this year. Along with expected higher home costs, respondents see rents rising 9.1%, up 0.4 percentage point from the prior month. They expect food prices to increase 5.3% (up 0.2 percentage point from a month ago), gasoline to rise 4.8% (up 0.3 percentage point); and college education to increase by 9%, a 2.5 percentage point surge. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the all-items CPI to show a 3.4% increase for April from the prior year, down 0.1 percentage point from March.
Persons: Philip Jefferson, Dow Jones Organizations: Costco, Consumers, New York Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Labor Locations: Novato , California, New, New York
The share of renters as of February who possess hopes of "residential mobility," or the belief from renters that they one day will be able to afford a home, fell to a record low 13.4% in the central bank's annual housing survey for 2024. Pessimism about future prospects comes amid a confluence of factors conspiring against the likelihood of renters being able to transition to home ownership. Moreover, mortgage rates have remained high by historical standards. Survey respondents expect housing prices to increase 5.1% over the next year, nearly double the 2.6% expected rate in February 2023 and above the pre-pandemic mean of 4.2%. Despite prospects for the Fed to cut interest rates before the end of 2024, respondents think mortgage rates are only going to go higher.
Persons: Freddie Mac, There's Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, New York Fed, National Association of Realtors, Fed, Federal, Market Locations: Manhattan, New York City, New
Washington CNN —The Federal Reserve is expected to announce Wednesday that it is keeping interest rates at a quarter-century high for the sixth-straight meeting. Other Fed officials have already introduced the possibility of a rate hike, in addition to the chance of no rate cuts this year. Williams later said that another rate hike is possible if economic data warrants it. That combination eerily resembled stagflation, which triggered a broad stocks selloff on Wall Street Thursday. The threshold for a rate hike is ‘extremely high’Another interest rate hike is back in the conversation, but at the moment, it’s still not likely the Fed will do that.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Powell, John Williams, Williams, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, , can’t, it’s, Goldman Sachs, Wall, ” Oren Klachkin Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Index, New York Fed, Bloomberg, Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, Commerce Department, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Nationwide, CNN Locations: New, Chicago, Wells Fargo
Inflation slowed substantially in 2023 as the Fed lifted rates to nearly a quarter-century high and held them at that level since July. Still, most Fed officials have signaled that they plan to cut rates this year if the economy evolves as expected. And if the inflation situation worsens even further, the Fed may even have to consider raising rates. Like Bowman and Kashkari, New York Fed President John Williams said rate hikes aren’t part of his baseline outlook. The timing of that first rate cut is critical because if the Fed cuts too soon, it risks locking in inflation at a high level.
Persons: hasn’t, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Bowman, John Williams, he’s, ” Williams, Williams, Jerome Powell, Susan Collins, ” Collins, Powell, Larry Summers, ” Summers, Summers, Goldman Sachs, Organizations: CNN, Wall, Federal Reserve, ” Minneapolis, Kashkari , New York Fed, Boston, CPI, Bloomberg, UBS, Barclays, Bank of America Locations: Kashkari , New
Stocks and bonds both sold off as investors painfully recalibrated their expectations for five to six interest rate cuts this year to align more with the Fed’s projected three cuts. For example, Yardeni Research has pushed back against the idea that immediate rate cuts are necessary to avoid the Fed overshooting on slowing the economy. Stocks wouldn’t crater even if cuts were off the table completely in 2024, according to Bank of America, despite what Tuesday’s losses suggest. “No cuts could stymie a full-fledged recovery in more credit-sensitive areas,” wrote BofA strategists in a note on February 9. That means regional lenders will no longer have that crutch if they run into trouble after the program’s expiration on March 11.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Ed Yardeni, it’s, Marc Dizard, Allison Morrow, Bitcoin, bitcoin, Antoni Trenchev, ” Read, Alicia Wallace, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Wall, Federal Reserve, Traders, Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, US Treasury, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Yardeni Research, Bank of America, PNC Asset Management Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Liberty Street Economics, , New York Fed Locations: New York, pare, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, , New
New York CNN —Americans who are already facing some financial difficulties are more intensive users of “Buy Now, Pay Later” offerings, with the majority of them tapping the short-term installment payment programs five or more times a year, according to new research released Wednesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Researchers found that almost 60% of financially fragile consumers have used Buy Now, Pay Later five or more times a year, with nearly 30% of them conducting 10 or more of the BNPL transactions annually. “More-fragile households tend to use the service to make frequent, relatively small, purchases that they might have trouble affording otherwise,” researchers wrote in the post. Buy Now, Pay Later offerings have exploded in use and availability in recent years, allowing people to make (often short-term) installment payments on furniture, travel, concert tickets, food delivery and even the grocery store. )”Some of the greatest downside risks for consumers are when they stack multiple BNPL loans and then pay for those programs with a credit card, economists and researchers have previously told CNN.
Persons: , Wells Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Liberty Street Economics, , New York Fed, Federal Reserve, CNN Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, , New
Inflation comes in hotter than expected
  + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
The consumer price index increased 3.1% year over year in January, higher than the forecast of 2.9%. The CPI rose 0.3% month over month in January. January’s year-over-year rise in the CPI was expected to be 2.9%, which would have been a massive slowdown from December’s 3.4%. CPI increased by 0.3% month over month in January. Additionally, New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations data shows the one-year ahead median expected inflation rate had largely been cooling but stayed at 3.0% in January.
Persons: That's, , That’s, Mark Hamrick Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, University of Michigan, Consumers, , New York Fed Survey, Consumer Locations: January’s, ,
Delinquencies are rising among younger borrowers in particular, the New York Fed said. Younger borrowers have surpassed pre-pandemic levels of credit card delinquencies. AdvertisementYounger Americans are falling behind on paying credit card and auto loans, with the rate of late payments rising above pre-pandemic levels in the last quarter, the New York Federal Reserve said in a report. Total credit card balances hit $1.13 trillion and auto loans outstanding increased to $1.61 trillion. Advertisement"Serious credit card delinquencies increased across all age groups, notably with younger borrowers surpassing pre-pandemic levels," New York Fed researchers wrote.
Persons: Organizations: New York Fed, Service, New York Federal Reserve, NY Fed, Fed
New York CNN —Americans — particularly Millennials and those with lower incomes — are becoming increasingly overextended financially: Credit card and auto loan delinquencies have not only surpassed pre-pandemic levels, they’re the highest they’ve been in more than a decade. Debt balances increased across the board, with credit card balances rising $50 billion to hit a new nominal high of $1.13 trillion (when adjusting for inflation, balances have yet to surpass the levels seen in 2008). “Credit card and auto loan transitions into delinquency are still rising above pre-pandemic levels,” Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research adviser at the New York Fed, said in a statement. “The delinquency numbers are pretty eye-opening, especially when it comes to credit cards,” Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree, told CNN via email. Student loan delinquencies will not be reported to the credit bureaus until later this year.
Persons: ” Wilbert van der, Matt Schulz, , delinquencies Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, York Fed, New York Fed, CNN Locations: New York
Credit card delinquencies surged more than 50% in 2023 as total consumer debt swelled to $17.5 trillion, the New York Federal Reserve reported Tuesday. The quarterly increase at an annualized pace was around 8.5%, New York Fed researchers said. Credit card debt, however, jumped 14.5% from the same period in 2022. Credit card debt as a share of income is still below pre-pandemic levels. Mortgage debt increased 2.8% in 2023, while the delinquency rate increased to 0.82%, up a quarter percentage point from the previous year.
Persons: Delinquencies, delinquencies, Wilbert van der, Joe Biden Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Auto, Federal Reserve, Washington
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 19, 2024. A day later, the Commerce Department will release the December reading on the personal consumption expenditures price index, a favorite Fed inflation gauge. "That's the thing that everybody should be watching to determine what the Fed's rate path will end up being," Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said during an interview Friday on CNBC. On top of that, several of Goolsbee's colleagues, including Governor Christopher Waller, New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, issued commentary indicating that at the very least they are in no hurry to cut even if the hikes are probably done. watch now"I don't like tying my hands, and we still have weeks of data," Goolsbee said.
Persons: Brendan Mcdermid, Dow Jones, Austan Goolsbee, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Goolsbee Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters Markets, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Group, Christopher Waller , New York Fed, Atlanta Fed, Labor Department Locations: New York City, U.S, Christopher Waller , New
The latest Survey of Consumer Expectations Household Spending Survey, which is released every four months, also showed that households expect to spend less in the year ahead. The most recent reading is the lowest since December 2020 and is trending closer to the pre-pandemic reading of 2.4%. Survey respondents said they expected to spend less on everyday essential spending. The spending has kept the economy churning, but it’s also potentially coming at a cost: Americans have relied heavily on debt to make their purchases. As of December 2023, respondents said they’d allocate 38.4% of the unexpected income gain toward paying down debt.
Persons: it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Consumer Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
[1/2] A man passes by The Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York City, U.S., March 13, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Underlying inflation pressures eased in October compared to the prior month, according to a report released on Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The bank said that its Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation reading for October stood at 2.6%, from September’s 2.88%. The NY Fed MCT index is designed to measure inflation persistence and how broadly price pressures are changing. The NY Fed MCT reading has tracked a broader retreat in price pressures.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Powell, Williams, Michael S, Mark Porter, Bill Berkrot Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, NY, New York Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, September’s
Fresh data shows price pressures are easing and the labor market is gradually cooling, evidence that the slowdown the Fed has tried to engineer with its rate hikes to date is underway. Still, the unemployment rate at last read was 3.9%, only a few tenths of a percentage point above where it was when the Fed first began raising rates in March 2022. UNCERTAIN PATHTraders have been betting heavily that the Fed will keep its overnight benchmark interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the next several months. "I'm not losing too much sleep" over the market's view "because there's a lot of uncertainty about the future path of policy," Williams said. "I'm not thinking about rate cuts at all right now," Daly said.
Persons: John Williams, Williams, Janet Yellen, I'm, Mary Daly, Daly, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Oscar Munoz, Dan Burns, Michael S, Howard Schneider, David Lawder, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci, Will Dunham Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Fed Bank, Fed, U.S, Treasury, PATH Traders, San Francisco Fed, Spelman College, Derby, Thomson Locations: U.S, New, Atlanta
People walk by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the financial district of New York City, U.S., June 14, 2023. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Demand for new credit in the U.S. over the last year has declined and will likely stay soft in the future, according to a survey released on Monday by the New York Federal Reserve. But even as the overall application rate for new credit declined among those surveyed, interest in applying for more credit card debt rose. The survey said that reading had hit 29% as of October and was 26% for 2023, compared to a 27.2% credit card application rate in 2019. The report noted that expected decline in applications for credit extended to new credit cards, auto loans, mortgages and home refinancing.
Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, New York Federal Reserve, Fed, Consumer, New York Fed, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S
Morning Bid: Ebbing oil sustains economic glow
  + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Word "Oil" and stock graph are seen through magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. That drop, which takes annual producer price inflation as low as 1.3%, was driven largely by falling gasoline prices. And that meets news that China's oil refinery throughput fell back in October as industrial fuel demand weakened. The overall energy and inflation picture is helping buoy consumption and stokes the 'soft landing' narrative investors are betting on. The picture in overseas markets, where the economic picture is cloudier, was more mixed.
Persons: magnifier, Dado Ruvic, Mike Dolan, stokes, Mary Daly, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Xi, Biden, Washington, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, John Williams, Michael Barr, Loretta Mester, Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos, Andrea Enria, Dave Ramsden, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Walmart, Federal, San Francisco Fed, Treasury, U.S . Senate, Philadelphia Fed, Kansas City Fed, Applied, Ross Stores, Federal Reserve, Lisa Cook , New York Fed, Cleveland Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, New York Federal Reserve, Insider Intelligence, Reuters Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, United States, China . U.S, Target, San Francisco, Taiwan, China, Kansas, Treasuries, Lisa Cook , New, Franciso, Reuters Graphics China
Morning Bid: Sidestepping Moody's rating twist
  + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. It's the last of the three major rating agencies to maintain a top rating for the U.S. Treasury as Fitch lowered its rating in August and S&P removed its AAA in 2011. On one level, there's some relief the AAA rating was maintained despite the darker outlook. And that would at least keep the Federal Reserve at bay despite its warnings last week that another rate hike was still on the table. Line chart with data from LSEG Eikon show the U.S. consumer price index inflation, core CPI inflation and federal funds target rate from Jan. 2019 to Sep. 2023.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Fitch, William Foster, Mike Johnson, China's, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Suella Braverman, David Cameron, Lisa Cook, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann, Tyson, Henry Schein Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Treasury, AAA, Reuters, . House, Republican, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Tyson Foods, Walmart, Bank of England, Moody's, U.S . AAA, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wall St, San Francisco, New York
A credit card is used on a payment terminal at a shop near Nantes, France, in this illustration picture taken November 6, 2023. The New York Fed report found credit issues are rising, albeit from low levels. The report said increases in credit card delinquency rates were most pronounced for thirtysomething borrowers. “The continued rise in credit card delinquency rates is broad-based across area income and region, but particularly pronounced among millennials and those with auto loans or student loans,” the economist noted. Line chart with data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York show credit card and auto loans delinquencies for over 30 days.
Persons: Stephane Mahe, there's, Donghoon Lee, , Daniel Silver, Morgan, Lisa Cook, Michael S, Andrea Ricci, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York Fed, New, Fed, The New York Fed, New York Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York, Thomson Locations: Nantes, France, The, U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New
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