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The labor market is only slowing at the margin, with job gains in July being the second-smallest since December 2020. Labor market strength, excess savings accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic and greater credit card usage to fund purchases have kept a recession at bay. Some economists saw the slight elevation as indicating a small margin of slack in the job market. The Philadelphia Fed’s business conditions index increased to a reading of 12.0 this month from -13.5 in July. A survey this week from the New York Fed showed business conditions in the “Empire State” remained depressed in August.
Persons: Shannon Stapleton, , Christopher Rupkey, Jerome Powell’s, Jeffrey Roach, Bill Adams, Daniel Silver Organizations: WASHINGTON, REUTERS, Federal, Labor Department, Reuters, Treasury, Conference, Labor, LPL Financial, Conference Board, Comerica Bank, Philadelphia Fed, New York Fed, JPMorgan Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, Ohio, California, Texas , Michigan , New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Charlotte , North Carolina, Dallas, New Jersey, Delaware, Philadelphia,
Bob Doll thinks a mild recession will hit the US economy sometime in the near-to-mid future. Outside of the stock market, Doll also thinks bonds are relatively attractive compared to last year. Within the bond market, he likes Treasurys most, with 10-year yields offering more than a 4% coupon. A 1.5% 10-year Treasury is a bad deal, and of course bonds have sold off hard," he said. Treasury bonds can be bought via a brokerage or through TreasuryDirect.
Persons: Bob Doll, Bob Doll isn't, Doll, Phillips, refiners Organizations: Conference, BlackRock, Valero, Aaa, Treasury Locations: HMOs, TreasuryDirect
The inverted yield curve and The Conference Board's LEI are two indicators that inform his view. Instead, investors should be paying attention to indicators like the Treasury yield curve, The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, and money growth. Here's the yield curve. And the start of a recession typically comes a bunch of of months after the yield curve inverts. The yield curve didn't invert until less than a year ago.
Persons: Bob Doll, LEI, Doll, Wall, — Bank of America's Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli —, we're, Louis, It's, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Greg Boutle, Tom Lee Organizations: Federal Reserve, — Bank of America's, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Fed, Louis Investors, Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, BNP, Institute for Supply, Institute for Supply Management, of Labor Statistics Locations: Wells
The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is still expected to show a tight labor market, with the unemployment rate steady near multi-decade lows, though wage growth probably moderated. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 200,000 jobs last month, after rising 209,000 in June, according to a Reuters survey of 80 economists. Still, employment growth would be double the roughly 100,000 jobs per month needed to keep up with the increase in the working age population. Striking Hollywood writers and actors also likely had no impact on employment growth. Though annual wage growth remains too high to be consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target, it would be the latest indication of wage pressures continuing to subside into the third quarter.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Sam Bullard, Nonfarm, Carl Riccadonna, Sung Won Sohn, Veronica Clark, Lucia Mutikani, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor, Fed, BNP, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Supply, Labor Department, Conference, Finance, Loyola Marymount University, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, New York, Los Angeles
In the past, he would have swiftly chopped 10% of the workers that run his bag-making machines, or about 15 people. Faced with the tightest job market in decades, many have become less trigger-happy with layoffs, even in the face of a cooling economy. But, so far, the economy has continued to grow, albeit more slowly, and the job market has powered onward. Reuters Graphics'HOLD ONTO YOUR LABOR FORCE'At least one major company has adopted a formal strategy of hoarding workers. "I don't think it's the case that many businesses are holding onto workers who are idle," she said.
Persons: Kevin Kelly, Nathan Frandino, Kelly, Alan H, Shaw, they're, Dana Peterson, Peterson, Arnold Kamler, Julia Pollak, Thomas Simons, We're, Timothy Aeppel, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Emerald Packaging, REUTERS, Packaging, Employers, Federal Reserve, Labor, Reuters Graphics, Norfolk, Reuters, U.S, Survey, Labor Department, Conference Board, Business Council, Kent International, Jefferies, Thomson Locations: California, Union City , California, U.S, San Francisco, Norfolk Southern, downturns, Atlanta, New York, South Carolina, rehire, Los Angeles
But markets and economists are expecting another solid jobs report Friday morning. And while economic data isn’t typically the sexiest of topics, the government’s jobs report has in recent months delivered plenty of excitement and its fair share of surprises. Last July, for example, the US economy added 568,000 jobs — more than double the 250,000 that economists had expected. Come Friday, the government’s jobs report for this July might not end up being quite so shocking. In fact, it could be relatively humdrum: A slight cooling in job growth, and unemployment holding steady.
Persons: Minneapolis CNN — Fitch, , Daniel Zhao, Refinitiv, Chris Rupkey, That’s, Michael Gapen, Janet Yellen, Glassdoor’s Zhao, ” Zhao, there’s, ” Andy Challenger, Challenger, ” Gus Faucher, they’re, Becky Frankiewicz, Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Glassdoor, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, Business, Conference Board, Fitch, Challenger, “ Companies, Labor Department, , PNC Financial Services Group, CNN, Labor Statistics, BLS, “ Employers, ManpowerGroup Locations: Minneapolis, United States
Other data from the Labor Department on Thursday showed a marked slowdown in labor costs in the second quarter, thanks to a sharp rebound in worker productivity. That added to reports last month showing a significant moderation in annual inflation in June as well as wage growth in the second quarter. Reuters GraphicsWorkers were more productive in the second quarter, which helped to curb growth in labor costs. Nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, increased at a 3.7% annualized rate in the second quarter after declining at a 1.2% pace in the January-March quarter, the Labor Department said in a third report. Unit labor costs - the price of labor per single unit of output - rose at a 1.6% rate in the second quarter.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Bill Adams, Nonfarm payrolls, Sarah House, Lucia Mutikani, Safiyah Riddle, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Comerica Bank, Labor, The Institute for Supply Management, Treasury, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Workers, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Dallas, California, Ohio, Texas, Georgia, Missouri, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina
Right now, Peterson says, the data suggests that consumers are spending across the economy and consumer sentiment has taken a turn for the better. "For most of this year, consumers were saying right now is okay, but we're worried about the future; we think a recession is coming." Peterson's first area of concern relates to the aggressive interest rate hikes made by the Federal Reserve over roughly the past year and a half, 11 rate hikes that have taken its benchmark rate above 5%. The "lagged effects of interest rate hikes will start hitting consumer spending," Peterson said. "Certainly, for the second half of the year, we're going to see slower consumer spending," Peterson said.
Persons: Dana Peterson, Peterson, Kate Rogers, cardholders, Ryan McInerney, Ramon Lagurta, there's, Jamie Dimon, we're, Jerome Powell Organizations: Conference Board, CNBC, CNBC's, PepsiCo, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, U.S . Department of Education
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDespite brighter outlook, most CEOs anticipate an economic downturn, survey findsDana Peterson, The Conference Board chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss a new survey of close to 150 CEOs from Fortune 500 companies, which showed that while CEO confidence is improving, executives are still cautious about the state of the economy.
Persons: Dana Peterson Organizations: The Conference Board, Fortune
Look at the Treasury yield curve and The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, says Rosenberg, who called the 2008 recession. He added: "Even if we could argue about a recession or a soft landing, you have Nirvana priced into the stock market as an asset class right now." 7 places for returns as a recession loomsThe first place Rosenberg said he's bullish on is the Treasury market. Treasury bills have durations of one year or less, while Treasury bonds have durations of 20 years or more. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) is one way to invest in Japanese stocks.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Treasurys, Rosenberg, there's, he's, bullish, underperformance, Warren Buffett Organizations: Treasury, Conference, CNN, Rosenberg Research, Treasury Bond ETF, Regional Banking, Vanguard Utilities, Real, Fidelity MSCI Communication Locations: U.S, Japan
Government data released Tuesday showed that boom continued in June, with spending on manufacturing facilities up nearly 80 percent over the past year. The manufacturing sector as a whole has added nearly 800,000 jobs since Mr. Biden took office and now employs the most people since 2008. Measures by the University of Michigan and the Conference Board suggest consumers have grown happier with the current state of the economy and more hopeful about the year ahead. Hourly wages outpaced price gains in the spring for the first time in two years, giving consumers more purchasing power. National opinion polls still show a sour economic mood — but it appears to be improving slightly.
Persons: Biden, , Joseph Brusuelas Organizations: RSM, University of Michigan, Conference Board, New York Times, Siena College Locations: Siena
David Rosenberg is sticking with his recession call, despite many other experts backing down. In a client memo, he shared some of the extreme pushback he's received for his gloomy forecasts. David Rosenberg, a leading economist who called both the dot-com and housing crashes, remains fully convinced the US economy is headed for a recession. Recession indicators including the inverted yield curve, The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, and the New York Fed's recession model are still flashing red. "The impatience and tempestuousness out there do not surprise me, either, having called the markets and the economy for nearly 40 years," he continued.
Persons: David Rosenberg, he's, Michael Burry, Warren Buffett, Merrill, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Internet, Conference, Biden, North Locations: Wall, Silicon, Houston, York, North American
Economist David Rosenberg told Insider that Fed employees laughed at his recession call in 2007. On October 9, 2007, shortly before the global economy plunged into recession, David Rosenberg delivered a presentation to economists and members of the research team at the Federal Reserve detailing why a downturn was coming. The Treasury yield curve is near its most inverted levels since the early 1980s. Here's the spread between the 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields. Then there's The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which is in recessionary territory, marked by the red lines below.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Mr, Louis Organizations: Federal Reserve, North, Conference, Fed, Federal, Rosenberg Research, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St Locations: North American
Digital ad vultures descend on TV’s carcass
  + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Jennifer Saba | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
NEW YORK, July 28 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The digital advertising hunt is back on. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsAlthough Meta and Alphabet dominate the digital ad market, there’s plenty of money yet to fight for. Comcast (CMCSA.O), for example, said on Thursday that U.S. ad revenue at its NBC Universal media division fell 5% and overall EBITDA was down nearly a fifth. Despite the volatile nature of advertising revenue because of its close links to economic trends, it also typically generates healthy operating margins. It’s no wonder then that Amazon.com (AMZN.O), Walmart (WMT.N), DoorDash (DASH.N) and many more are descending on TV’s carcass.
Persons: Mark Zuckerberg, Jerome Powell, WPP’s, Jeffrey Goldfarb, Sharon Lam Organizations: YORK, Reuters, Meta, Google, Uber Technologies, Netflix, Facebook, YouTube, Conference Board, Federal, PepsiCo, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Comcast, NBC Universal, Walmart, Thomson Locations: New York
Washington, DC CNN —US consumers have been feeling a whole lot better this summer as inflation has continued to slow. That’s a huge improvement from June 2022, when consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level on record and inflation reached a four-decade high of 9.1%. “However, sentiment for lower-income consumers fell.”Indeed, recent data continue to reflect inflation slowing. Consumer spending is the main engine of the economy, accounting for about two-thirds of output, and much of it hinges on the state of the labor market. The Fed certainly wants to see core inflation continue to decelerate, but Powell routinely points to the labor market not being balanced.
Persons: , Joanne Hsu, Lydia Boussour, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Powell Organizations: DC CNN, University of Michigan, University of Michigan’s, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Fed, , Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Washington, EY
See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. Mortgage Rates for Buying a Home30-year Fixed Mortgage Rates Decrease (-0.10%)The current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.40%, down 10 basis points since this time last week. 20-year Fixed Mortgage Rates Go Up (+0.20%)The average 20-year fixed mortgage rate is up from last week and sits at 6.25%. Mortgage Refinance Rates30-year Fixed Refinance Rates Inch Down (-0.07%)The average 30-year refinance rate is 6.76%, which is just 7 basis points lower compared to last week. 15-year Fixed Refinance Rates Fall (-0.22%)The average 15-year fixed refinance rate is 6.20%, a bit lower than it was last week.
Persons: Freddie Mac, homebuyers, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's, you'll, refinance, It's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Conference, Zillow Locations: Chevron
Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.6% in the most recent month. In many states, unemployment is at or near record lows, with the unemployment rate in South Dakota at just 1.8%. Construction spending on manufacturing is soaring, while manufacturing employment recently hit its highest level in 15 years. And the dream scenario for the economy, to get inflation down without a sharp spike in unemployment or a recession, is looking more likely by the day.
Persons: It's Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon, South Dakota
On Thursday, new GDP data will show just how much the US economy grew between April and June. The US has also been experiencing a factory boom, with construction spending on US manufacturing nearly doubling from May 2022 to May 2023. Manufacturing employment recently hit its highest level since 2008, and since Biden took office, around 800,000 manufacturing jobs were added. In the first two quarters of this year, applications to start a business likely to hire employees grew 7% year-over-year. Sectors leading likely employer business applications include accommodation and food services, construction, health care and social assistance, and retail trade.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Joe, Biden, Ellen Zentner, Julia Coronado Organizations: Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Congressional, Investments, Economic, Sectors, National Association for Business Economics, Conference, CPI, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon, , Philadelphia, frastructure, Mississippi, North Carolina
The increase, anticipated by investors with nearly a 100% probability, would raise the benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range. That would bring it to roughly the highest level since the approach to the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession. Far from it, the economy is proving more resilient to rising interest rates than expected, with ongoing growth and an unemployment rate that is currently pinned at a low 3.6%. New data on the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index, will be released on Friday. The Fed will have a larger-than-usual amount of data to assess before its next meeting on Sept. 19-20, some eight weeks away.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Steve Englander, Powell, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Standard Chartered, Data, Conference Board, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, North America
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailElon Musk should not waste his time heading a public company, says Conference Board's Steve OdlandSteve Odland, president and CEO of The Conference Board joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss innovators and operators and which is better for shareholders.
Persons: Elon, Steve Odland Steve Odland Organizations: Conference Board
The Conference Board's consumer confidence gauge just hit its highest level in two years. The Conference BoardAmericans have rosier views of the labor market, the data showed, and more people reported feeling "good" about family finances while fewer reported feeling "bad." "[B]oth indicators are on an upswing as consumers take positive signals from the resilient labor market and receding inflation in recent months," the Barclays analysts wrote. The improving economic outlook reflects easing inflation and the ongoing resilience of the labor market, Peterson said. "This likely reveals consumers' belief that labor market conditions will remain favorable."
Persons: Dana Peterson, Peterson Organizations: Service, Privacy, Conference, Conference Board, Barclays, University of Michigan, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon
Minneapolis CNN —High interest rates aren’t souring Americans’ moods: A key measurement of consumer confidence just shot up to a level not seen since July 2021. The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index hit 117 in July, rising from 110.1 the month before, according to new data released Tuesday. The Conference Board’s confidence index and the University of Michigan’s twice-a-month consumer sentiment index are two leading gauges of consumers’ attitudes toward the current and future strength of the economy. Consumer spending, which is a key driver of US economic activity, has eased somewhat in recent months but remains resilient. The Commerce Department on Friday will release the latest data on consumer spending alongside a critical inflation gauge for the Fed.
Persons: , Dana Peterson, , Nathan Howard, ” Ryan Sweet, Chris Rupkey, FwdBonds, Barbie Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Conference Board, Washington , D.C, Bloomberg, Getty, University of Michigan’s, Oxford Economics, ‘ Times, Commerce Department, Fed Locations: Minneapolis, Georgetown, Washington ,, Michigan, America
Stock rose on Tuesday ahead of earnings reports from Alphabet and Microsoft. Investors are also preparing for another possible rate hike from the Fed on Wednesday. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Tuesday marked the start of the Fed's two-day meeting, which will determine the direction of future monetary policy. Though majority of market observers expect another interest rate hike for July, some view this as a potential conclusion to the bank's tightening cycle.
Organizations: Microsoft, Fed, Service, Federal Reserve, Conference, Here's Locations: Wall, Silicon
Summary Consumer confidence index increases to 117.0 in JulyLabor market differential rises to 37.2 from 32.5 in JuneHouse prices continue upward trend in MayWASHINGTON, July 25 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence increased to a two-year high in July amid a persistently tight labor market and receding inflation, bolstering the economy's prospects in the near term. That supports economists' views that consumer spending was flattening out after rising at its fastest pace in two years in the first quarter. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index increased to 117 this month, the highest reading since July 2021, from 110.1 in June. TIGHT LABOR MARKETThe survey's so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, increased to 37.2 this month from 32.8 in June, a sign labor market conditions remain tight despite job growth slowing. And while more households planned to buy houses, they could run into affordability challenges as tight supply pushes up prices.
Persons: Robert Frick, Dana Peterson, Lisa Sturtevant, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Labor, Conference, Federal Reserve, Consumers, Navy Federal Credit Union, The, Reuters, University of, Conference Board's, Fed, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Bright MLS, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, Vienna , Virginia, U.S
What’s ahead this week for Wall Street and the economy
  + stars: | 2023-07-23 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
Case Shiller house price index for May and consumer confidence for July from the Conference Board. Earnings reports from AT&T, Boeing, Meta Platforms, Mattel, Stellantis and Chipotle Mexican Grill. Earnings reports from Coca-Cola, Mondelez, Honeywell, Keurig Dr Pepper, Royal Caribbean, Anheuser-Busch Inbev, Southwest Airlines and Hershey. Friday: Personal Consumption Expenditures price index for June, Employment Cost Index for the second quarter and University of Michigan consumer sentiment for July. Earnings reports from Procter & Gamble, Chevron and Exxon Mobil.
Persons: Jerome Powell, David Smith, Powell, Christopher Waller, , Dustin Thackeray, Tesla, Chris Isidore, , Case, Dr Pepper Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Fed, Traders, Rockland Trust, Big Tech, Microsoft, Meta, Crewe Advisors, Nasdaq, Netflix, Safety, Health Administration, doesn’t, Biden Administration, Bureau of Labor Statistics —, Ryanair, Federal Reserve, Conference Board, General Motors, Daniels, Midland, Verizon, PacWest, Boeing, Mattel, Honeywell, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Southwest Airlines, Hershey, University of Michigan, Procter & Gamble, Chevron, Exxon Mobil Locations: Rockland, American, United States, PacWest Bank, Royal Caribbean
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