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☆ ECB warns of hit to top European banks if funds run into trouble
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The biggest risk it identified was that shadow banks withdrew their funds from banks, such as deposits and repurchase agreements. These account for 13% of all traditional banks' liabilities -- or more for larger banks. This could happen if the shadow banks -- or non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFI) in the regulators' jargon -- were themselves hit by outflows or lost confidence in a bank. Other spillover channels included forced sales of assets by shadow banks, which would cause losses at traditional banks because their portfolios often overlap or are correlated, the ECB said. It added that distress at systemically important lenders would also spell trouble for shadow banks.

☆ Inflation rose 0.4% in April and 4.7% from a year ago, according to key gauge for the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Price increases were spread almost evenly, with goods rising 0.3% and services up 0.4%. On an annual basis, goods prices increased 2.1% and services rose by 5.5%, a further indication that the U.S. was tilting back toward a services-focused economy. The report showed that spending jumped 0.8% for the month, while personal income accelerated 0.4%. Including food and energy, headline PCE also rose 0.4% and was up 4.4% from a year ago, higher than the 4.2% rate in March. Still, Citigroup economists expect the Fed to raise its forecasts for inflation and GDP when it releases its updates at the June meeting.

☆ India's note withdrawal to improve liquidity, ease short-term rates - analysts
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Siddhi Nayak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, May 22(Reuters) - The Indian central bank's decision to withdraw its highest denomination currency note from circulation is likely to improve banking system liquidity, bringing down recently elevated short term rates, analysts and bankers said. Kotak Institutional Equities estimates that liquidity could improve by around 1 trillion rupees, depending on the behaviour of depositors, while QuantEco Research pegs the potential liquidity impact at 400 billion rupees to 1.1 trillion rupees. ICICI Securities Primary Dealership estimates the liquidity surplus could increase to 1.5-2 trillion rupees. India's banking system liquidity surplus has averaged above 600 billion rupees in May. About 2.5-3 trillion rupees of banking sector liquidity leaks out as currency in circulation each year, wrote Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC.

"With loan terms tougher and tighter, the option for private credit providers is on steroids," said Drew Schardt, head of investment strategy at Hamilton Lane, one of the largest investment firms in private markets. Pietrzak sees "attractive" assets in auto and consumer lending. POISED TO GAIN SHAREInvestors providing private credit comprise 12% of the $6.3 trillion U.S. commercial credit market, according to Fitch Ratings. "The tightening of lending standards creates opportunities for private credit to gain share," said Lyle Margolis, Fitch's head of private credit. While private credit funds have grown swiftly, the risks they pose to the financial system appear limited, the Federal Reserve wrote in a report this month.

☆ Oil slips as U.S. debt caution offset supply concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Florence Tan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Companies Baker Hughes Co FollowSINGAPORE, May 22 (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped on Monday as caution around the U.S. debt ceiling talks and concerns about demand recovery in China offset support from lower supplies from Canada and OPEC+ producers. The resumption of U.S. debt ceiling negotiations later on Monday will remain a key driver for crude and risk sentiment this week, IG's Sydney-based analyst Tony Sycamore said. "If the housing market continues to fall and policymakers fail to respond, the risk of a double-dip China slowdown increases, which spells bad news for crude oil consumption and demand," Sycamore said. Last week, both oil benchmarks gained about 2%, their first weekly gain in five, after wildfires shut in large amounts of crude supply in Alberta, Canada. Total exports of crude and oil products from the group plunged by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) by May 16, JP Morgan said, adding that Russian oil exports will likely fall by late May.

The G7, the European Union and Australia agreed to impose a $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil and also set an upper price limit for Russian oil products to deprive Moscow of revenues for its invasion of Ukraine. The IEA, which provides analysis and input to the G7 on energy, does not see the enhanced enforcement of the price caps affecting the global oil and fuel supply, Birol told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of the summit. According to Birol, the price cap reached two main objectives: it did not trigger tightness in the markets as Russian oil continued to flow but at the same time Moscow's revenues were reduced. But there are some loopholes, some challenges for the better functioning of the oil price cap," Birol said. "There is no determination of any time frame there, but I think the main issue is because of the reliance of especially European countries on Russian gas almost for decades.

☆ Deep in the Amazon, scientists race to find unknown bat viruses
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Some scientific studies have found that deforestation causes stress in bats, and stressed bats carry more viruses and shed more germs in their saliva, urine and feces. It spiked following the highway’s construction, making the Amazon in the early 1980s a rallying cry for the global environmental movement. When examining spillover risk, scientists use the number of bat species in a given area as a key variable. When humans encroach on their habitat, and bat species commingle, the viral cocktail intensifies. “Odds of it being documented are very slim,” said Caio Graco Zeppelini, an ecologist and bat researcher at the Federal University of Bahia.

☆ Bats carry killer viruses. Scientists suggest ways to cope.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

“I have to think on a landscape scale.”Research in Australia also is deepening scientists’ understanding of bats. Flying foxes travel long distances in search of food, dispensing seeds and pollinating trees along the way. As deforestation destroyed habitats and further disrupted the food supply, the bats have increasingly formed year-round roosts near people, they noticed. Native gums flowering around Gympie lured the flying foxes away from horse paddocks and more urban areas. In fact, the most dangerous areas for spillover aren’t rare, pristine habitats absent of humans, scientists say.

☆ 'He lied to us about what he was doing and who he was': Anthony Scaramucci reflects on the top 3 lessons he wants all investors to learn from his experience with Sam Bankman-Fried.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Anthony Scaramucci's investment firm SkyBridge Capital had a rough run in 2022 after being burned by the collapse of the bankrupt crypto exchange FTX. Scaramucci told Insider that the amount of leverage in the system and the tax-loss selling in December depressed their overall performance. Still, there are spillover effects — and lessons — from last year's debacle with FTX that Scaramucci and SkyBridge are working through. Lessons learned from the FTX debacleLast year, Sam Bankman-Fried through FTX, the crypto exchange he founded, bought 30% of SkyBridge for $45 million. And finally, as the majority shareholder of the firm, Scaramucci holds the right of refusal to reject any transfer of the shares.

☆ China, birthplace of COVID, lays tracks for a new global health crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

Bat viruses have been the source of multiple health crises besides those related to coronaviruses, including recent outbreaks of Ebola, Nipah, and Marburg. Partners in risk The total area at high risk for bat viruses to infect humans more than doubled in size in Laos between 2002 and 2020. The animals, known to be susceptible to bat viruses, included raccoon dogs, bamboo rats and porcupines. As China boomed in recent decades, global demand for rubber also skyrocketed, leading to further development and deforestation here. Already, scientists have found local bats bearing viruses closely related to those responsible for the 2003 SARS and COVID-19 pandemics.

☆ Analysis: Amgen's antitrust woes spur wider pharmaceutical deal fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( David Carnevali | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Even shares of drug companies that do not have pending deals but are seen by analysts and investors as potential acquisition targets were hit. FTC officials did not respond to a request for comment on whether they planned to challenge any other pharmaceutical acquisitions. "We could see similar challenges to the Pfizer/Seagen deal" BMO analysts wrote in a note, arguing that the FTC could target other major drug companies with the resources to engage in bundling. UNDER THE RADARConversely, investors and analysts are hoping that smaller pharmaceutical acquisitions will continue to fly under the radar of regulators. Reporting by David Carnevali in New York; Editing by Greg Roumeliotis and Jamie FreedOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ How a deadly bat virus found new ways to infect people
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +16 min

Scientists found bats with Nipah virus roosting near Sabith’s home. A search of the neighborhood led to a colony, near their house, of flying foxes, a common fruit bat. NETTING NIPAH: Researchers in Bangladesh use nets to catch bats and collect samples to find the Nipah virus in the wild. REUTERS/Mohammad Ponir HossainWhether Sabith ate contaminated fruit or somehow came into direct contact with a bat, the virus entered his cells. REUTERS/Mohammad Ponir HossainA year later, Chua’s team found the same strain of Nipah virus in flying foxes.

These areas, which we've dubbed " jump zones ," span the globe, covering 6% of Earth's land mass. That's 57% more people living in jump zones than two decades earlier, increasing the odds that a deadly bat virus could spill over. The world's jump zones have lost 21% percent of their tree cover in almost two decades' time, double the worldwide rate. Almost one-third of that expansion would be in existing jump zones, where spillover risk is already high. Though those countries require mining companies to assess potential environmental harms that new concessions might cause, none require companies to evaluate spillover risk.

☆ How Reuters pinpointed bat-virus risk zones worldwide
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +12 min

Areas where conditions are similar are more prone to spillover, scientists say. The Reuters analysis, which assessed spillover risk through 2020, has proven to have some predictive power. Similar statistical models are used widely to analyze data in ecology, and researchers use them to understand spillover risk. More than one of every five people on the planet is living in areas where the risk is highest for spillover. Using epidemic modeling software called GLEAMviz, the news agency simulated a worldwide pandemic originating from the spillover of a theoretical novel virus.

☆ We may never know where the COVID pandemic originated
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

LONDONIt’s the enduring mystery of the COVID-19 pandemic: Where did the virus come from? They also mostly agree that many of the earliest known infections and deaths clustered around a wildlife market in Wuhan, China. Others suspect the pathogen somehow leaked from a Wuhan laboratory, 27 km from the market, where researchers study bat viruses. One concentration of jump zones includes a region of mountains and lakes about 175 km southeast of the Wuhan market. In late 2002, the SARS-CoV-1 virus emerged in Guangdong province, in southern China, and became the SARS pandemic of 2003.

☆ Bat lands worldwide are besieged, seeding risk of a new pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +16 min

This collision – bats and humans competing for resources on territory long the domain of the bats – could trigger the next pandemic. As people destroy bat habitats worldwide, they are unwittingly helping bat-borne viruses mutate, multiply, and infect other species, including homo sapiens. For millennia, bat viruses lurked across the forests of West Africa and in other undisturbed parts of the world but posed little threat to humanity. They’re potent proliferators: Some roost tightly together and in close quarters with other bat species. Each of the bat viruses analyzed by Reuters has epidemic potential, according to the World Health Organization.

☆ What’s a President to Do When a Nation’s Capital Is Sinking? Move It.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Hannah Beech | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +38 min

A new capital city for a place with such disparities and diversity presents both a challenge and a chance for reinvention. Moving the Seat of Power From Java to Borneo Detail area Malaysia Nusantara Borneo Java Sea Indonesia Jakarta Java Indian Ocean Detail area Malaysia Nusantara Borneo Java Sea Indonesia Jakarta Java Indian Ocean Indonesia’s new capital, Nusantara, will be about 800 miles from the current capital, Jakarta. It cannot be overnight, it’s not like Aladdin comes with his genie,” said Bambang Susantono, the head of the Nusantara Capital City Authority. We have to prove that this will be a self-propelling city.” — Bambang Susantono, head of the Nusantara Capital City AuthorityCritics of I.K.N. Indonesia’s capital city faces sinking land and rising seas.

☆ US regional banks rise in attempt to shake off crisis of confidence
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

... Read moreMay 15 (Reuters) - Shares of U.S. regional lenders gained on Monday led by a rebound in PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O), as investors tried to look past the crisis of confidence brought on by the collapse of three banks in a span of two months. PacWest rose 8.4%, while Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB.O), Comerica Inc (CMA.N) and KeyCorp (KEY.N) were up between 2% and 6%. The KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX), which had lost 13.7% so far this month, rose 2%. Then in May First Republic collapsed, creating a vicious cycle that put pressure on regulators to intervene. However, investors have remained wary of any reassurances from analysts and regulators on the stability of the regional banks despite deposits rising.

☆ Military object found in Polish forest was Russian missile - media
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WARSAW, May 10 (Reuters) - The military object found in a Polish forest in April was a Russian CH-55 missile, Polish private media outlets RMF FM and Polsat News reported on Wednesday, citing unnamed sources. The area where the object was found is hundreds of kilometres from Poland's borders with Ukraine, Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. Private broadcaster RMF FM reported on Wednesday without naming its sources that the preliminary findings of Poland's Air Force Institute of Technology was that the object was a Russian CH-55 missile. Private broadcaster Polsat News also reported without naming its sources that the object was a CH-55 missile. A Polish government spokesman and the Air Force Institute of Technology could not immediately be reached for comment.

☆ Fed says banking sector looks set to weather recent turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON, May 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. banking sector overall appears well-positioned to weather recent industry turmoil, but the experience could still weigh on credit conditions in the future, the Federal Reserve said on Monday. In aggregate, it said banks remain well-capitalized. DEBT LIMIT CONCERNSThe Fed released the report shortly after a separate central bank survey found banks were tightening credit standards amid weaker loan demand. Beyond banks, the Fed said pressures on various market sectors remained within historical norms. Banking sector stresses were identified as a risk by more than half of respondents, up from 12% in the November report.

☆ Take Five: Sell in May?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The services component of the price data can gauge demand, but consumer and producer price data broadly paint a picture of deflation. April inflation data is out Thursday. At 10.1%, UK inflation is the highest in Western Europe. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics4/ SELL IN MAYConventional wisdom has it that May is the ideal point to take profit on equities and lay low until later in the year. "Sell in May and go away" is based on the premise that the best six-month period of the year for stock market returns is November to April, while the leanest is May to October.

☆ IMF sees uncertainty over Japan's monetary policy, spillover globally
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While most Asian central banks must keep tightening monetary policy, Japan remains an exception with inflation still moderate - though this could change. "There is uncertainty around the direction of monetary policy in Japan, amid a rise in inflation," Srinivasan said. "Changes in Japan's monetary policy that lead to further increases in government bond yields could have global spillovers through Japanese investors, who have large investment positions in debt instruments abroad," Srinivasan said. With inflation exceeding its 2% target, markets are rife with speculation the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could modify its bond yield control policy in coming months. The BOJ kept ultra-low interest rates on Friday but announced a plan to review its past monetary policy moves, laying the groundwork for new governor Kazuo Ueda to phase out his predecessor's massive stimulus programme.

☆ Opinion | Why Does Bad Science on Covid’s Origin Get Hyped?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( David Wallace-Wells | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

This pattern does not apply only to research purporting to show evidence of a natural origin. Perhaps, if you staked a lot on that initial raccoon-dog report, it does make sense to turn your dial a bit in the opposite direction. Across a pandemic in which the public was desperate for new information, we have probably gotten too used to treating hurriedly prepared reports as definitive science. “It is really important to try to understand the origin of Covid-19,” Bloom says. I think part of science, and part of critical thinking in general, is supposed to be a high level of comfort with uncertainty and unknowns.

☆ IMF raises Asia's economic forecast on China recovery, warns of risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Asia and Pacific will be the most dynamic of the world's major regions in 2023, predominantly driven by the buoyant outlook for China and India," the IMF said its regional economic outlook report. "As in the rest of the world, domestic demand is expected to remain the largest growth driver across Asia in 2023." Asia's economy is expected to expand 4.6% this year after a 3.8% increase in 2022, contributing around 70% of global growth, the IMF said, upgrading its forecast by 0.3 of a percentage point from October. "The costs of failing to bring inflation below target are likely to outweigh any benefits from keeping monetary conditions loose," the IMF said. "Insufficient tightening in the short term would require disproportionately more monetary tightening later to avoid high inflation becoming ingrained, making a larger contraction more likely."

☆ Premarket stocks: Why a US recession is probably coming
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

That would catapult the United States into recession during the second half of 2023 (Europe and the UK will feel it even earlier). It’s possible that the economy sees disinflation in a way that it hasn’t in previous cycles.”Has the gig economy peaked? So is the height of the gig economy behind us? “It hasn’t changed anything about the odds of a recession,” the chief executive said in response to a question from CNN during a press call. “Down the road, rates going way up, real estate, recession — that’s a whole different issue.

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