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As doubts grow about the strength of its economic recovery, foreign money has left China's markets and the currency has fallen 4% against the dollar since late January. Analysts at Nomura and Societe Generale say the yuan could soon head for 7.3, which as last plumbed in November. Reflecting that, the trade-weighted CFETS basket against which the People's Bank of China (PBOC) manages the currency, has dropped to 99 from 100 in February. THE CHEAP CURRENCYBecky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, expects the yuan will continue to depreciate. "The interest rate gap remains wide, so many hedge funds continue to use yuan as a funding currency," Liu said.

LONDON, May 17 (Reuters) - Planisware is working with investment bankers on strategic options, including a stock market listing of the French software group, four people familiar with the matter told Reuters. Rothschild (ROTH.PA) is acting as financial adviser to Planisware, two of the people, who declined to be named, said. BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) and Citigroup (C.N) have been lined up to arrange a possible initial public offering (IPO), one person added. Private equity group Ardian, which holds an undisclosed stake in Planisware through its growth capital arm, declined to comment. In France, IPO volumes plunged in 2022 to levels similar to the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

"A longer timeframe shows that foreign investors have been net sellers of Japanese equities by a considerable margin. We think long-term investors remain lightly positioned," they wrote last week in a note "Upside risks in Japanese equities". Non-residents sold nearly $4 billion of Chinese stocks in April, according to the Institute of International Finance, the first outflow in six months. Bank of America's monthly fund manager surveys show that "long" Chinese equities was the most crowded global trade in January. That has been scaled back significantly and investors have reduced their net overweight position in Chinese stocks, but they are still comfortably net overweight.

☆ 'Foreign investors are back': Japan stocks surge to their highest since 1990
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The firm noted that foreign investors bought a net 2.1 trillion yen ($15.4 billion) worth of Japanese stocks in April – adding that Japan's corporate sector remains the largest net buyer of Japanese stocks, with a volume of 1.1 trillion yen year-to-date. Central bank focusSociete Generale strategists added that their overweight position on Japanese equities remains unchanged. The Japanese yen traded at slightly weaker levels to 136.43 against the greenback on Wednesday. "Keep an overweight position on Japan equities, unhedged, and biased to banks, financials, and value," they wrote. "Specifically, we note the solid fundamentals compared with stocks on overseas markets, and we also think that expectations for structural changes/reforms could push Japanese equities up even further," wrote Japan equity strategist Kazunori Tatebe.

LONDON, May 17 (Reuters) - U.S. crypto firm Ripple has bought Switzerland-based crypto custody firm Metaco for $250 million, in its first major acquisition, Ripple said on Wednesday. Investor interest in crypto assets has cooled following a drop in cryptocurrency prices in 2022 and series of collapses at major crypto firms, including U.S. exchange FTX. Investors have become increasingly cautious about where and how crypto assets are stored, after crypto platforms freezing withdrawals left them facing large losses. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said he expected increased demand from institutional investors for crypto custody services. More than half of the $250 million acquisition was paid for in cash, and the rest in equity, Ripple said.

☆ Crypto firm Ripple buys Swiss startup as SEC crackdown forces companies to consider overseas moves
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Ryan Browne | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse speaks during the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, on Oct. 19, 2021. "This is the largest deal we've seen in the last year," Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, told CNBC on a call Tuesday. Garlinghouse said last week that the firm will have spent $200 million in total defending itself against the SEC lawsuit. Numerous crypto industry insiders have been calling for a clear regulatory framework from the U.S. Congress to help give companies clarity over how they can operate in a way that's legally sound. WATCH: Ripple will have spent $200 million fighting SEC lawsuit, CEO says

☆ A 31-year market vet who called the current bear market warns an impending credit crunch and recession will sink stocks by 45% as valuations remain higher than dot-com bubble levels
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Indicators like initial and continuing unemployment claims and loan demand show weakness. A recession paired with high valuations spells trouble for stocks, he said. For example, the number of initial unemployment claims is starting to jump at a recessionary pace, Wolfenbarger said. The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims has risen 29% over the last eight months. Hussman FundsWhat others are sayingMany market onlookers have highlighted high stock market valuations in recent weeks.

☆ SocGen beats estimates as bond trading offsets retail banking slump
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

General view of the logo outside a branch of French bank Societe Generale in Paris. French bank Societe Generale posted better than expected quarterly earnings on Friday after turmoil in bond and currency markets boosted its trading business. The trading windfall cushioned a slump in SocGen's French retail division, where earnings were curbed by stricter interest rate caps on mortgages and other loans. "Performance is tracking well in all the divisions, but the main issue is French retail," JPMorgan said in a note to clients. "We think the market will focus on French NII (net interest income), taking the shares down," it said.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed 0.4% higher, with banks higher by 0.8% and oil and gas stocks gaining 1.5%. European stock markets closed higher Friday despite a downbeat week, as investors assessed the state of play across first-quarter earnings and economic data. France's Societe Generale beat first-quarter earnings estimates, as its shares climbed as much as 2%. Shares of the financial services provider closed 0.5% higher. Asia-Pacific markets closed mixed on Friday, while U.S. stocks were flat by the European close.

☆ Slowing growth could make long-dated bonds attractive this summer, SocGen's head of fixed income says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSlowing growth could make long-dated bonds attractive this summer, SocGen's head of fixed income saysGuy Stear, head of fixed income research at Societe Generale, discusses credit market opportunities and the interest rate outlook.

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 4, 2023. Investors fear a government default as early as June 1 if Congress fails to resolve the deadlock. Our calculation shows she's not incorrect," said Steven Ricchiuto, U.S. chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA LLC in New York. "Treasury yields I would argue came down too much too soon." The dollar edged higher against major currencies, with the dollar index up 0.168%.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidTOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - A gauge of global equities fell on Tuesday after weak Chinese trade data sparked concerns about China's domestic demand recovery, while the impasse over the U.S. debt ceiling sparked a sharp sell-off in short-dated Treasury bills. Investors fear a government default if Congress fails to resolve the debt ceiling deadlock as early as June 1. Longer-dated Treasury yields were little changed as investors waited for key U.S. consumer price inflation data on Wednesday. The dollar edged higher against major currencies, with the dollar index up 0.256%. Gold prices edged higher as some investors sought cover from economic uncertainty, including the debt ceiling deadlock.

☆ Asian stocks edge lower amid gloomy China data as US CPI looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - Asian stocks eased back from more than two-week highs on Tuesday as traders squared positions heading into a key U.S. inflation report, while gloomy Chinese trade data also kept risk sentiment in check. Mainland Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) turned lower after early gains, with the benchmark CSI 300 dropping 0.8%. "So when you have some trend data which is not as good as people expect, it raises doubts," he said. "The surprise lies on the downside" for the inflation data, particularly the risk of a drop below 5%, said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG markets. Brent crude was down 30 cents at $76.71 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 26 cents to $72.90.

☆ 'Recession is a done deal': A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns a deep and long downturn will destroy corporate profit margins — setting stocks up for disaster
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

But as data continues to come out in the months ahead, Edwards says to pay attention to details beneath the headline numbers. Sure enough, revisions to February and March numbers reported on Friday paint a picture of a weakening labor market. "I think the recession will lead to a collapse in margins and profits and do a lot of damage." In terms of his view on the labor market, Edwards has company in Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. But bulls do remain, and they're betting on a scenario where inflation continues to come down — it hit 5% in March, down from its 9.1% peak last year — and the labor market remains intact.

ECB chief Christine Lagarde said the central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro was not pausing. "This is a very restrictive policy and it will turn into credit tightening and that will bring a recession." The ECB has now increased its key deposit rate by some 375 bps since last July, from -0.5%. U.S. rates have jumped 500 bps, with the Federal Reserve hiking again on Wednesday while opening the door to a pause. Gareth Rudd, a European equity fund manager at Chelverton Asset Management, said he was negative on European bank stocks because regulators will want them to conserve capital instead of paying dividends.

☆ The Fed will cut rates in the fall as banking turmoil puts credit conditions in a 'tight vise', economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed will finally cut interest rates in the fall, former PIMCO economist Paul McCulley predicted. That's because banking turmoil will put credit in a "tight vise," slowing the economy, he warned. Economists have flagged the risk of recession over the past year as the Fed aggressively hiked rates. Economists have been flagging the growing odds of recession over the past year, as the Fed raised interest rates over 1,700% to combat inflation. "We have this chronic condition that I think is a really tight vise on MainStreet lending," McCulley warned.

☆ There isn't a banking crisis, the problem is banking supervision, says Milken's William Lee
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere isn't a banking crisis, the problem is banking supervision, says Milken's William LeeHarris Financial Group's Jamie Cox, Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa and Milken Institute's William Lee, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the looming Fed meeting, where another 25bps rate hike is expected.

☆ Watch CNBC’s Fed panel full interview ahead of the Fed decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s Fed panel full interview ahead of the Fed decisionHarris Financial Group's Jamie Cox, Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa and Milken Institute's William Lee, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the looming Fed meeting, where another 25bps rate hike is expected.

A flood of inflation data releases were also mixed. The International Monetary Fund called on the ECB on Friday to keep raising interest rates until the middle of 2024 to help bring down high inflation. Versus the yen , the euro briefly rose to its highest level since December 2014 at 149.50. It was last up 1.2% at 149.35 yen after the BOJ left its ultra-easy monetary policy unchanged even as it scrapped a pledge to keep interest rates low. However, the central bank removed a pledge to keep interest rates at "current or lower levels" and said it would "conduct a broad-perspective review of monetary policy".

☆ Resolving Credit Suisse: an alternative history
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Liam Proud | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Reuters GraphicsThe market shock will be all the more extreme because Credit Suisse doesn’t obviously need more capital. It seems perverse to put taxpayer money on the line while leaving the Credit Suisse bonds untouched. Of the 30 global lenders classed as systemically important by the Financial Stability Board, Credit Suisse is the third-smallest by total assets. It also enables the Swiss National Bank to offer Credit Suisse an open-ended credit line, hopefully ending the bank run. Credit Suisse is suffering from a crisis of confidence brought on by years of mismanagement, rather than a system-wide meltdown.

The Swedish crown weakened sharply after the country's central bank was less hawkish than expected, while the euro rebounded 0.65% from losses on Tuesday when jitters over U.S. regional banks buoyed the safe-haven dollar. But the market expects further rate hikes from the European Central Bank, a difference with the Fed that is driving currency moves. The euro rose 1.05% against the crown to a high of 11.426, set for its biggest one-day gain since early March. Sterling was last trading at $1.2462, up 0.44% on the day, while the yen strengthened 0.28% at 133.34 per dollar. Investor attention will firmly be on the slate of central bank meetings in the next few weeks with the Bank of Japan, under the new Governor Kazuo Ueda, holding its policy meeting later this week.

☆ 'The equity market is poised to struggle in the weeks and months ahead': Comerica Bank's CIO says the S&P 500 is primed for a 15% drop as weak earnings, high valuations, and a hawkish Fed all work aga
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 8%. Plus, when the Consumer Price Index is between 4-6% like it is now, it usually dictates that the S&P 500 trades at a lower multiple than it is. "For example, at the current S&P 500 P/E of 19, the earnings yield for stocks is 1 divided by 19, or ~5.2%. While he sees 15% downside in the months ahead, he also believes the S&P 500 will return to current levels by the end of 2023. Morgan StanleyWilson has also repeatedly warned of an earnings recession ahead, and recently said that the pullback in lending from banks strengthens his case.

☆ Recession fears set stocks on course for weekly drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Overnight figures showed more Americans filing claims for jobless benefits and manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region slumping to its lowest level in nearly three years. Leading Economic Index, a gauge of future economic activity, also dropped to its lowest level since November 2020 overnight and it is signalling a recession starting mid-2023. Tesla (TSLA.O) shares tumbled 9.7% after the electric vehicle maker posted its lowest quarterly gross margin in two years. The yen hovered at 134.11 to the dollar, though the New Zealand dollar nursed losses at $0.6162 after Thursday's softer-than-expected inflation data. In the oil market, at $80.79 a barrel, Brent is also below its 50-day moving average for the first time since oil producers unexpectedly announced extra production cuts two weeks ago.

☆ Renault chooses banks for planned listing of electric car unit Ampere - source
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

PARIS, April 20 (Reuters) - French carmaker Renault (RENA.PA) has picked BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA), Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and JPMorgan (JPM.N) among the investment banks slated to work on the planned listing of its electric car business, Ampere, a source close to the matter said on Thursday. The three banks will act as joint global coordinators on the initial public offering (IPO) of Ampere, the source said. Renault aims to list Ampere in Paris this year, depending on market conditions. Renault's management has not yet given a valuation for the unit, saying it was up to the market to do so. Renault declined to comment on the names or roles of the banks picked for the planned listing.

☆ OVHcloud cuts sales growth target citing economic conditions
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 19 (Reuters) - French cloud services provider OVHcloud (OVH.PA) on Wednesday trimmed its forecast for full-year revenue growth, citing the macroeconomic context and delays in certain projects. The company now sees organic revenue growth between 13% and 14% in 2023, against a previous outlook of growth in range of 14%-16%. Societe Generale analyst Derric Marcon earlier this week pointed to an interview this month where Amazon's (AMZN.O) CEO suggested a continued slowdown in AWS, the U.S. company's cloud services arm. OVHcloud updated its adjusted core profit (EBITDA) margin target for full-year 2023, forecasting that it will be above 36%, against a previous forecast for it to be in line with the 39.0% posted in 2022. It reported half-year sales of 439 million euros ($481.41 million), broadly in line with the 437.3 million expected on average in a company-provided poll.

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