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☆ Small business owners could be poised for a 1990s-like boom
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( John Towfighi | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

This has spiked the interest rates small business owners are paying on new mortgages, credit, and loans. Related storiesPowell said that small business owners are poised to benefit regardless of the size of the cut and should remain hopeful about future growth. According to the National Federation of Independent Businesses, small business confidence dipped in August. AdvertisementHe said small businesses tend to be more credit-constrained, so changes in interest rates are particularly influential for business owners' management decisions. Are you a small business owner who has experienced a recent change in sales or hiring?

Persons: —, Phil Powell, it's, Powell, Jerome Powell, Sean Higgins, Higgins Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Indiana Business Research Center, Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Federal Open Markets, Treasury Department, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rise as stocks whipsaw after inflation-fueled decline
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks traded mixed as traders reacted to a mixed inflation report. Core consumer prices rose more than expected, reducing chances of a 50 basis-point rate cut. AdvertisementUS stocks traded mixed on Wednesday, with investors staging a recovery after taking in a mixed inflation report. Odds for a 50 basis-point cut have been slashed by more than half to just 15%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Markets will assess August producer price inflation data and weekly jobless claims on Thursday and fresh retail sales data next Tuesday.

Persons: —, Bill Adams, Jensen Huang, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Traders, Comercia Bank, Bank of America, Tech, Nvidia, Here's

☆ Treasury yields move lower ahead of key consumer inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was nearly 2 basis points lower at 3.625%, with the 2-year Treasury yield down 2 basis points at 3.586%. Treasury yields dipped on Wednesday as investors awaited the release of U.S. inflation data for clues on the size of a potential interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week. The reports come ahead of the Fed's Sept 17-18 meeting, with traders widely expecting a rate cut. Others have described such a move as one that would be "very dangerous" for markets, pushing instead for the Fed to deliver a quarter-point rate cut instead. Traders are currently pricing in a 67% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut, with 33% expecting a 50-basis-point rate reduction, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: U.S

☆ Markets get nervous over high core inflation and see the Fed cutting slowly
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stubbornly high core inflation virtually cemented the likelihood of a quarter percentage point cut from the Federal Reserve, which historically has avoided larger moves unless absolutely necessary. Shelter inflation is putting a floor under the CPI and likely keeping the Fed from reducing interest rates by more 25 basis points. "History back to 1990 supports the idea that an initial Fed rate cut of 50 basis points signals an imminent recession (2001 and 2007). "Their first cut will almost certainly be 25 basis points," Colas said. But the Fed, which targets inflation at 2%, prefers core readings as a better longer-term gauge for inflation.

Persons: Dow Jones, —, Nick Colas, Jerome Powell, Colas, That's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, CPI, Fed, Traders, Open Market, PCE

☆ Wall Street mounts a comeback, and Honeywell finally hints at what may be next
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Jensen Huang, Goldman Sachs, Vimal Kapur, Morgan, Kapur, We've, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Club, Nvidia, Broadcom, Nvidia's, Technology Conference, Honeywell, Laguna Conference, Signet Jewelers, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Kroger

☆ Steve Eisman of 'Big Short' fame not worried about banks or economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Steve Eisman of "The Big Short" fame said he's unfazed by the weakness in bank stocks as well as any uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's next easing cycle. To Eisman, there's nothing to worry about. Eisman shot to fame by shorting collateralized debt obligations to profit from the demise of subprime mortgage loans before the 2008 financial crisis. Wednesday's data showed the consumer price index , a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, increased 0.2% in August , in line with the Dow Jones consensus. The economy Concerns about lower-income consumers have also increased recently, but Eisman said they are not indicative of a systemic issue endangering the wider economy.

Persons: Steve Eisman, he's, Neuberger Berman, shorting, Michael Lewis's, Eisman, Dow Jones Organizations: Federal, JPMorgan, Ally Financial, Dollar Locations: U.S

☆ The inflation report dashes hopes of a jumbo rate cut next week
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

You can opt-out at any time by visiting our Preferences page or by clicking "unsubscribe" at the bottom of the email. The consumer price index, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increased 2.5% over the year from August 2023 to this past August, matching the forecast of 2.5% and below July's 2.9% rate. The new data will factor into the Federal Open Market Committee's interest-rate decision next week, with the hot core figure decreasing the odds of a jumbo 50-basis-point cut. Softening but still relatively strong labor market data will also weigh on the Fed's decision. "If that test is met, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September."

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, Federal

See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 30-Year Mortgage Rates TodayAverage 30-year mortgage rates are down slightly and are hovering around 5.75%, according to Zillow data. 15-Year Mortgage Rates TodayAverage 15-year mortgage rates have inched down this week and are hovering just above 5%, according to Zillow data. Last month, 30-year refinance rates averaged 6.59%, while 15-year refinance rates were around 5.90%. Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile.

Persons: they've, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's, They'll, refinance Organizations: Reserve, Zillow, Fed Locations: Chevron

☆ Treasury yields rise ahead of final inflation prints before Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 2 basis points higher at 3.721%, with the 2-year Treasury yield also up by 2 basis points at 3.691%. Treasury yields rose early Tuesday ahead of the final major inflation prints before the Federal Reserve's September meeting. Treasury yields have stablized after tumbling through last week when a series of labor market releases missed estimates. Debate has erupted over whether the Fed could opt for a 50 basis point rather than a 25 basis point interest rate cut during the Sept. 17-18 meeting.

Organizations: Treasury, Investors Locations: July's

☆ Goldman says watch out for more drawdowns, but the risk of a bear market is still low
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

For investors who just weathered a bout of summer turbulence, Goldman Sachs said expect more patchiness in stocks, but believes the bull market will remain intact. "However, we think the risk of a bear market remains low with relatively low recession risk, helped by a healthy private sector and central bank easing." The stock market benchmark has since recouped much of the losses, recently trading some 3.4% below its July 16 all-time high. A bear market represents at least a 20% decline from the S & P 500's record high, while even a correction would amount to a 10% drawdown. … Encouragingly, though … we are not staring at a severe slowdown," Bank of America said in a note to clients on Tuesday.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Christian Mueller, Goldman, Mueller, Glissmann, … Organizations: U.S, Bank of America, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ Stock futures are little changed as traders brace for August consumer inflation report: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures were little changed Tuesday night ahead of the August consumer inflation report due Wednesday morning. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both dipped 0.1%. Traders are anticipating a key economic report Wednesday morning: August's consumer price index. The CPI report and Thursday's producer price index could help determine the size of a widely expected rate cut at the end of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting on Sept. 18. Fed funds futures trading suggests a 69% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut and a 31% likelihood of a 50-basis-point reduction, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Persons: Dow, Dow Jones, CME's, Kristina Hooper, Hooper Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, GameStop, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Nvidia, JPMorgan, CPI, Federal

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rise as traders eye debate and upcoming inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors are gearing up for August's consumer price index report to release on Wednesday. Tuesday's presidential debate could also impact investor sentiment. This week, investors are bracing for the incoming consumer price index report, scheduled for release on Wednesday morning. Before the inflation print, investors will first tune into Tuesday evening presidential debate between candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Later in the week, the producer price index and the latest jobless claims will be published on Thursday.

Persons: Stocks, —, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, David Bahnsen Organizations: Service, Bahnsen Group, Here's

☆ No bear market for stocks in sight even as macro and policy uncertainty threaten further volatility, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Higher valuations, a mixed macro outlook, and policy uncertainty raise the risk of further declines for stocks. Yet, odds of a bear market are low amid a strong private sector and coming rate cuts, Goldman Sachs says. AdvertisementMacro and policy uncertainty have raised warning signs for further volatility for stocks in recent weeks, but the risk of a steeper correction into bear market territory looks remote, Goldman Sachs analysts said. According to the bank, there's an elevated risk that investors pullback amid lofty valuations, a mixed macro outlook, and policy uncertainty. The firm's outlook comes as indexes have been rattled in recent months by volatility stemming from weaker-than-expected macro data.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, — Organizations: Service, Fed

As the Fed lowers its benchmark rate, mortgage rates should continue to go down. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. FHA Interest RatesFHA interest rates were 5.03% last month, and they've been a bit lower in recent weeks. 5-Year Mortgage Rate TrendsHere's how 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates have trended over the last five years, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile.

Persons: they've, Freddie Mac Organizations: Federal Reserve, Traders, Zillow, ARM, Federal Housing Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs Locations: Chevron

☆ Money market funds hit another record high — but experts warn it's time to move out of cash. Where they see opportunity
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-09 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Assets in money market funds hit $6.3 trillion the week that ended Wednesday, another record high, according to the Investment Company Institute . The annualized 7-day yield on the Crane 100 list of the 100 largest taxable money funds is currently 5.08%. History shows that when investors do move out of money market funds, they move into fixed income over equities, he said. Institutional investors will also continue to move into money market funds as the Fed cuts rates because any cash they have in direct money market investments, such as Treasury bills, will be hit by rate cuts quicker than money market funds, explained Peter Crane, founder of Crane Data, a firm that tracks the industry. Once you have the appropriate cash needs set aside, consider moving any excess funds into fixed income, Jenkin said.

Persons: Mark Cabana, Peter Crane, Crane, Ted Jenkin, Jenkin, Leslie Falconio, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, Falconio Organizations: Investment Company Institute, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Institutional, Crane, CNBC, American Express, Bread Financial, UBS, U.S . Locations: UBS Americas

☆ Citi says buy this boat dealer because Fed rate cuts will increase affordability
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-09 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

MarineMax is a smart pick for investors looking for beneficiaries of lower interest rates, according to Citi. Analyst James Hardiman upgraded shares of the boat dealer to buy from neutral and upped his price target by $4, or 10%, to $44. Key to Hardiman's upgrade is the idea that the stock can get a boost when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. After holding interest rates steady at 5.25% to 5.50% for more than a year, the long-awaited first cut may come as soon as next week. Shares briefly popped more than 7% in early Monday trading, a reprieve after a tough 2024, when MarineMax shares have tumbled more than 21%.

Persons: James Hardiman, CME's, Hardiman Organizations: Citi, Federal Reserve

☆ US employers have good reasons not to hire more workers now
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-08 | by ( Bryan Mena | Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

That’s because employers might be putting some of their hiring plans on hold — and for good reason. Businesses consider many factors when deciding to hire, but across a wide spectrum of industries, the economic outlook carries always great deal of weight. Both those factors are prompting employers to think twice about hiring more workers now, according to economists and recent comments from businesses around the country. But she’s proposing raising the corporate tax rate to 28%. So when interest rates are as elevated as they are right now, monthly debt payments could be too costly for many firms.

Persons: there’s, ” Kathy Bostjancic, Reserve Banks, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Trump, Harris, ”, Sean Snaith, Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s, ” Pollak, “ It’s, Pollak Organizations: CNN, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Nationwide, “, Reserve, Trump, America, Economic, of New, Institute for Economic, University of Central, Fed, Treasury Locations: China, of New York, University of Central Florida

☆ Fed Governor Waller backs interest rate cut at September meeting, open to larger move
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Friday backed an interest rate cut at the upcoming central bank policy meeting in less than two weeks, and indicated he’d be open to a substantial reduction if necessary. Other policymakers recently have advocated easing policy soon, but this is one of the clearest indications it will happen at the Sept. 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. “Determining the pace of rate cuts and ultimately the total reduction in the policy rate are decisions that lie in the future,” Waller added. With inflation and employment near our longer-run goals and the labor market moderating, it is likely that a series of reductions will be appropriate,” he said. Futures market pricing following the jobs report tilted toward a greater likelihood of a quarter percentage point rate reduction this month.

Persons: Christopher Waller, ” Waller, Waller, verbiage, Jerome Powell, —, nonfarm, Dow Jones, ” Organizations: Federal, Council, Foreign Relations, Labor Department, Dow Locations: New York

☆ Deep rate cuts are necessary because the Fed's unprecedented hikes actually made inflation worse, Nobel-winning economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-06 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Nobel-prize-winning economist called on the central bank to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its approaching policy meeting. AdvertisementFriday's weaker-than-expected reading did not completely ease concerns, putting pressure on the Fed to ease policy quickly. But Stiglitz, speaking ahead of the data's release, told CNBC that he would pursue deeper rate cuts regardless of Friday's report. Builder confidence also tanked to a December bottom, though experts anticipate that falling interest rates should eventually boost sentiment. AdvertisementMeanwhile, homebuyers appear sidelined as they wait for interest rate cuts to ease mortgage rates.

Persons: —, Joseph Stiglitz, Stiglitz, homebuyers Organizations: Service, CNBC, Business

☆ JPMorgan top economist says the Fed should cut rates by a half point this month
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-05 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist of JPMorgan Securities, listens during a Bloomberg Television interview in New York on March 6, 2018. The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting, according to JPMorgan's Michael Feroli. "We think there's a good case for hurrying up in their pace of rate cuts." "While inflation is still a little above target, unemployment is probably getting a little above what they think is consistent with full employment. This follows the unemployment rate inching higher to 4.3% in July, triggering a recession indicator known as the Sahm Rule.

Persons: Michael Feroli, JPMorgan's Michael Feroli, CNBC's, you've, Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan Securities, Bloomberg Television, Federal Locations: New York

☆ Weak manufacturing measures raise specter of U.S. economic slowdown
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. factories remained in slowdown mode in August, fueling fears about where the economy is headed, according to separate manufacturing gauges. Demand continues to be weak, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative," said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. While the index level suggests contraction in the manufacturing sector, Fiore pointed out that any reading above 42.5% generally points to expansion across the broader economy. Another weak economic reading raises the probability the Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates by at least a quarter percentage point later this month. "A further downward lurch in the PMI points to the manufacturing sector acting as an increased drag on the economy midway through the third quarter.

Persons: Dow Jones, Timothy Fiore, Fiore, Stocks, Chris Williamson Organizations: Institute for Supply Management, Dow, ISM Manufacturing Business Survey, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, PMI, P Global Market Intelligence Locations: U.S

☆ Tom Lee, who's been correctly bullish, turns cautious and sees 7%-10% pullback
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-03 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Equity strategist Tom Lee expects the stock market will run into some turbulence over the next eight weeks, though he expects a pullback could be a buying opportunity for investors. Lee stocks could pull back by 7% to 10%, as investors navigate what's historically the weakest month of the year. The Stock Trader's Almanac shows the S & P 500 has averaged a 0.7% loss every September in data going back to 1950. "I think investors should be cautious for the next eight weeks," Lee told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Tuesday. Lee was one of the first on Wall Street to turn bullish on stocks during the depths of the pandemic and was correctly bullish heading into 2024 as well.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, CNBC's, Market's, He's Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ September's poor history is hard to ignore, but market has many things on its side including the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-03 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The good news outweighs the bad Seasonality aside, the market is riding a wave of momentum, and with good reason: 1) The market "broadening" trend is very real. At Jackson Hole, chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that the Fed had shifted its attention from fighting inflation to the job market. S&P 500 in September: It's been ugly recently (rounded) 2023: down 5%2022: down 9%2021: down 5%2020: down 4% The elections are another wildcard. Two-thirds of the S&P 500 was up in August. Most importantly, the Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) modestly outperformed the S&P 500 in August and closed Friday at an historic high.

Persons: Frank Gretz, Wellington Shields, Robert Hum, It's, Consumer Staples, Jerome Powell, David Smith, Brendan McDermid Organizations: Dow, NASDAQ, Russell, NYSE, Megacap Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Consumer, Estate, Technology, American Association of, Bulls, PCE, Fed, Rockland Trust, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange Locations: Wellington, Meta, Rockland, New York City, U.S

☆ The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator increased 0.2% in July, as expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core PCE also increased 0.2% for the month but was up 2.6% from a year ago. Core prices less housing, another key metric for the Fed, increased just 0.1% on the month. Elsewhere in the report, the department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said personal income increased 0.3%, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate, while consumer spending rose 0.5%, in line with the forecast. Markets reacted little to the news, with equity futures pointing to a slightly higher open on Wall Street and Treasury yields higher as well. In recent days, policymakers such as Chair Jerome Powell have expressed confidence that inflation is progressing back to the Fed's 2% goal.

Persons: Dow, Joseph Brusuelas, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Dow Jones, Fed, department's, BEA, Treasury, RSM

☆ Americans just got the biggest confirmation yet of an interest rate cut next month — but the job market hangs in the balance
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

He offered details on the Fed's thinking as the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting approaches in September, with all eyes on the first interest rate cut since the pandemic began. AdvertisementIt's all but certain that the Fed will cut rates in September. That leaves the big question of how much — not if — the Fed will cut rates, and the upcoming jobs report will likely shed some light on that question. "Today, the labor market has cooled considerably from its formerly overheated state. "But the inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Jackson, precarity, Austan Goolsbee, we've Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, CME, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Democratic, Chicago Fed

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