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☆ Markets and the economy survived a tough first quarter, but it's not going to get any easier
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Despite peaks and valleys, stocks closed the first quarter on an up note, with the S & P 500 rallying more than 7% and the tech-fueled Nasdaq soaring about 16%. .SPX .DJI YTD line S & P 500 gains so far in 2023 Indeed, the market has lived through a lifetime of scary headlines in the first three months of 2023. Despite repeated protestations from Fed officials that they are taking the higher-for-longer approach on interest rates, markets still expect cuts. AAPL .SPX YTD mountain Apple compared to the S & P 500 Only five of the 11 S & P 500 sectors are positive for the year, despite the substantial rally for the index. The net profit margin for the S & P 500 also is expected to edge lower to 11.2%.

☆ Brace for the US economy to crash-land as the banking turmoil creates a credit crunch, Allianz says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy is going to crash-land into a recession in the second half of 2023, according to Allianz. "Rapidly tightening credit conditions, exacerbated by the banking crisis" will fuel the downturn, Allianz said. Allianz is expecting the turmoil that's rocked the US's regional banks in recent weeks to fuel a credit crunch. The turmoil could leave banks more risk-averse and result in a pullback in lending, according to Allianz. "While credit growth has still held up, a significant decline in bank lending seems inevitable amid the collapse of monetary aggregates."

☆ ECB’s inflation battle has a 550 bln euro problem
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, March 31 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Euro zone lenders have so far weathered the financial storms blowing in from the United States and Switzerland. That has allowed the European Central Bank to keep raising rates to combat inflation. Lagarde has said that euro zone banks are well capitalised and have plentiful liquidity. The MRO – the rate lenders pay for one-week loans from the ECB – is currently set at 3.5%, 50 basis points above the benchmark deposit rate. Follow @guerreraf72 on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSEuro zone banks have to repay 549 billion euros in emergency loans from the European Central Bank by June 28.

☆ The key issue from the banking crisis is a behavioral change in credit, says Apollo's Torsten Slok
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe key issue from the banking crisis is a behavioral change in credit, says Apollo's Torsten SlokTorsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss changes in small bank lending patterns, tighter lending data raising risk of a harder landing, and more.

☆ Analysis: Rate rises pile pain on SME firms in U.S. and Europe
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Chiara Elisei | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Summary SME vulnerability to rate hikes gone under radarUS, European credit conditions tighteningUK SMEs especially vulnerable -analystsLONDON, March 30 (Reuters) - U.S. and European small and medium-sized (SME) firms may be next to feel the pain of rapid interest rate rises, with analysts and investors warily watching for the impact of tighter credit conditions exacerbated by recent banking turmoil. In the U.S. the average rate that small businesses pay on bank loans rose from around 5% to 7.6% in 2022, and is likely to hit about 9.5% by mid-year, Jefferies analysts estimate. British SMEs, hurt by weak growth, double digit inflation and rising Bank of England rates, are seen as particularly vulnerable. "The Government needs to demonstrate that it is on the side of small businesses who are feeling stressed and under huge margin pressure," McTague added. HARD TIMESMeanwhile the rate of small business loan approval at big U.S. banks meanwhile fell in February for nine straight months and business loan approvals at small banks has also fallen, said online financing platform for small businesses Biz2Credit.

☆ U.S. weekly jobless claims still low; corporate profits fall in Q4
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 198,000 for the week ended March 25, the Labor Department said. Claims have remained very low, bouncing around in a tight range despite high-profile layoffs in the technology industry. The so-called continuing claims covered the period during which the government surveyed households for the unemployment rate for March. Continuing claims increased moderately between the February and March survey weeks. The unemployment rate was at 3.6% in February.

☆ Banking turmoil means recession fears are creeping back
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Here's what some closely watched market indicators say about recession risks:1/ CRUNCH TIME? Central bankers are closely monitoring the potential for banking stress, on top of lending conditions that were already tightening, to trigger a credit crunch. European Central Bank boss Christine Lagarde has also said the market turmoil may help fight inflation. Reuters Graphics3/ BANK STOCK ROUTWorld shares down just 0.1% in March and still sitting on gains this year seem to signal little recession risk, but worries are mounting under the surface. Global bank stocks, which had outperformed the MSCI World Stock Index before the turmoil, are down nearly 15% this month (.dMIWO0BK00PUS).

☆ The bank crisis threatens to spark a credit crunch as Main Street banks pull back
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A possible consequence of the banking crisis is that households and businesses may soon find it harder to get a loan from their bank. Around $1 trillion in deposits have been pulled from smaller and mid-sized banks since the Fed began hiking rates last year, with half that fleeing banks since SVB collapsed. "The uncertainty generated by deposit movements could cause banks to become more cautious on lending," JPMorgan strategists wrote in a note. "This risk is heightened by the fact that mid- and small-size banks play a disproportionately large role in US bank lending." This likely could impact the trajectory of the economy, as regional and community banks are a massive source of credit to Main Street borrowers.

☆ Why the struggles of mid-sized US banks could be bad news for the Main Street economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Households and businesses may find it harder to get loans from regional banks as people pull deposits from those lenders. "The greatest vulnerabilities with respect to credit creation going forward lie with non-mortgage bank lending to households and mortgage bank lending for non-financial non-corporate businesses," JPMorgan said. Regional banks are "very important" to the financial system, CFRA's Yokum said. Regional banks can potentially give better service, more customized products, potentially higher deposit rates," he said. Some hefty figures illustrate the "disproportionately large" role small banks hold in lending in the US.

☆ Cramer says a much-needed Fed pause could ignite a stock market rally like we haven't seen in decades
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Fed rate hikes: They were so quick that they left any bank that bought too many longer-duration bonds, in an attempt to pick up a little more yield, heavily underwater. The Powell Fed sees the current problems. The fact is, though, we need a strong banking system and without one, you can forget about getting credit without paying too high a price for it. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

☆ Premarket stocks: Commercial real estate is in trouble. Why you should be paying attention
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Economists are growing concerned about the $20 trillion commercial real estate (CRE) industry. After decades of thriving growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. Before the Bell spoke with Xander Snyder, senior commercial real estate economist at First American, to find out. Before the Bell: Why should retail investors pay attention to what’s going on in commercial real estate right now? So the health of the market has an impact on the larger economy, even if you’re not interested in commercial real estate for commercial real estate’s sake.

☆ Morning Bid: Banks are leaking money
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

There is some relief that First Citizens BancShares Inc (FCNCA.O) is in advanced talks to acquire Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O). There was also some talk the Federal Reserve could expand its new lending programme for banks as another step to reassuring depositors. Money is clearly flowing out of smaller banks toward their bigger siblings and to money market funds, which have seen an inflow of more than $300 billion in the past month to a record $5.1 trillion. Capital Economics points out that deposits across all the banks have fallen by $663 billion in the past year as customers search for higher yield. Deutsche Bank's five-year CDS hit 222 bps on Friday, the highest since late 2018, while UBS CDS shot up to 139 bps.

☆ Euro zone lending slows again in Feb, ECB says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

FRANKFURT, March 27 (Reuters) - Bank lending to euro zone companies slowed for the fourth straight month as an economic downturn and increased caution from lenders appear to be taking their toll, European Central Bank data showed on Monday. Lending to businesses in the 20 nation currency bloc expanded by 5.7% in February after a 6.1% rise a month earlier while household credit growth slowed to 3.2% from 3.6%. Lending has slowed sharply in recent months on an economic downturn and the fastest rate hikes by the ECB on record, with surveys pointing to even weaker lending figures in the months ahead. The monthly flow of loans to companies was a negative 2.6 billion euros after a mere 1.4 billion euro expansion a month earlier. Growth in the M3 measure of money circulating in the euro zone meanwhile slowed to 2.9% from 3.5%, coming below expectations for 3.2% in a Reuters survey.

[1/3] The logo of Swiss bank Credit Suisse is seen in front of a branch office in Bern, Switzerland November 29, 2022. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File PhotoWASHINGTON/FRANKFURT, March 26 (Reuters) - Stress in the banking sector is being closely monitored for its potential to trigger a credit crunch, a U.S. Federal Reserve policymaker said on Sunday, as a European Central Bank official also flagged a possible tightening in lending. "What's unclear for us is how much of these banking stresses are leading to a widespread credit crunch. Meanwhile in Europe, the ECB believes that recent banking sector turmoil may result in lower growth and inflation rates, its vice president Luis de Guindos said. Turbulence among banking stocks on both sides of the Atlantic continued into the end of the week, despite efforts by politicians, central banks and regulators to dispel concerns.

WASHINGTON, March 26 (Reuters) - Recent stress in the banking sector and the possibility of a follow-on credit crunch brings the U.S. closer to recession, Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said Sunday in comments to CBS show Face the Nation. "It definitely brings us closer," Kashkari said. "What's unclear for us is how much of these banking stresses are leading to a widespread credit crunch. "At the same time," he continued, "we've seen that capital markets have largely been closed for the past two weeks. The Fed has rolled out an emergency lending program meant to keep other regional lenders from trouble should deposit withdrawals increase.

☆ Red alert recession signals
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-26 | by ( Matt Turner | Dave Smith | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

On the agenda today:But first: Everyone is back to talking about a recession. This week's dispatchFed Chair Jerome Powell Joshua Roberts/Reuters2023 started with fresh hope that the US could avoid a recession. That has big name investors and market signals predicting a recession, and soon. "Red alert recession signals," Gundlach said. Even Powell's preferred bond-market indicator says a recession is on the way this year.

☆ Bank fears will likely lead to even more market volatility in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Market turbulence could reign supreme once again in the week ahead, as investors worry about the potential for more trouble rippling through the banking system. The broader market was initially under pressure Friday as investors became jittery about Deutsche Bank . "The market is saying: 'You, the Fed, do not appreciate the slowdown that is going to hit us,'" Chandler said. "The market is going to do a lot better and it held onto its gains despite all the things that rocked the market. He added that market concern about banks has risen, and there is concern credit tightening will hurt the economy.

☆ 'Most vulnerable' U.S. banks lost $1 trillion in deposits in a year -JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Nupur Anand | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File PhotoNew YORK, March 23 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co analysts estimate that the "most vulnerable" U.S. banks are likely to have lost a total of about $1 trillion in deposits since last year, with half of the outflows occurring in March following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. The team of JPMorgan (JPM.N) analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou did not name any of the banks they categorized as "most vulnerable" or say how many they included in this group. Of the $17 trillion of total U.S. bank deposits, nearly $7 trillion are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC), the JPMorgan analysts wrote. Rising U.S. interest rates, and banks' sluggish moves to raise the rates they pay depositors, have also contributed to the outflows in the last year, the JPMorgan analysts said. Out of the $1 trillion in deposits that were pulled out of the most vulnerable U.S. lenders, half went to government money market funds, while the other half landed at larger U.S. banks, the analysts wrote.

☆ BofA, UBS trim forecast for Fed funds rate amid banking crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The Fed's benchmark rate stood in the range of 4.75-5% following a quarter percentage point hike on Wednesday. BofA analysts said the consequent unexpected tightening in bank lending standards could substitute for further hikes. BofA and UBS no longer expect an interest rate hike in June and see the Fed funds rate peaking in May at 5-5.25% and 5.25-5.5%, respectively. Goldman Sachs, which expected the Fed to pause on Wednesday, maintained its terminal rate forecast in the 5.25-5.5% range, but now sees rates peaking in June instead of July. Money markets, which priced in a terminal rate close to 6% by September just as early as this month, now see the rate peaking at 4.9% by May.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sought to reassure investors about the soundness of the banking system, saying that the management of Silicon Valley Bank "failed badly," but that the bank's collapse did not indicate wider weaknesses in the banking system. "These are not weaknesses that are running broadly through the banking system," he said, adding that the takeover of Credit Suisse seemed to have been a positive outcome. The Federal Open Market Committee policy statement also said the U.S. banking system is "sound and resilient." The much-anticipated rate cut by the Fed, which had delivered eight previous rate hikes in the past year, sought to balance the risk of rampant inflation with the threat of instability in the banking system. The banking sector has been in turmoil after California regulators on March 10 closed Silicon Valley Bank in the largest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis.

The latest move to restore calm to restive regional bank stocks came as Pacific Western Bank (PACW.O), one of the regional lenders caught up in the market volatility, said it had raised $1.4 billion from investment firm Atlas SP Partners. While that deal brought some respite to battered banking stocks, First Republic (FRC.N) remains firmly in the spotlight. For now, the rescue of Credit Suisse appears to have calmed the worst fears of systemic contagion, boosting shares of European banks (.SX7P) and U.S. lenders (.SPXBK). Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics'HEAD IN SAND'The wipeout of Credit Suisse's Additional Tier-1 (AT1) bondholders has sent shockwaves through bank debt markets. Seeking to boost confidence among investors rattled by its $3 billion Credit Suisse rescue, UBS said on Wednesday it would buy back 2.75 billion euros ($2.96 billion) worth of debt it issued less than week ago.

March 22 (Reuters) - U.S. authorities are set to explore ways to bolster financial stability, along with steps to tackle the problems facing First Republic Bank, as central banks assess whether turmoil in banking makes interest rate rises less pressing. SVB's collapse kicked off a tumultuous 10 days for banks which led to the 3 billion Swiss franc ($3.2 billion) Swiss engineered takeover of Credit Suisse by rival UBS (UBSG.S). While that deal brought some respite to battered banking stocks, U.S. lender First Republic (FRC.N) remains firmly in the spotlight. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics'HEAD IN SAND'The wipeout of Credit Suisse's Additional Tier-1 (AT1) bondholders has sent shockwaves through bank debt markets. For now, the Swiss bank rescue appears to have assuaged the worst fears of systemic contagion, boosting shares of European banks (.SX7P) and U.S. lenders (.SPXBK).

But an unexpected jump in UK inflation last month led investors to bet heavily that the Bank of England will raise interest rates by at least another 25 bps on Thursday. SVB's collapse kicked off a tumultuous 10 days for banks which led to the 3 billion Swiss franc ($3.2 billion) Swiss regulator-engineered takeover of Credit Suisse by rival UBS. While that deal brought some respite to battered banking stocks, U.S. lender First Republic remains firmly in the spotlight. First Republic (FRC.N) shares fell 9% in extended trade on Tuesday, having surged as much as 60% at one stage. For now, the Swiss bank rescue appears to have assuaged the worst fears of systemic contagion, boosting shares of European banks (.SX7P) and U.S. lenders (.SPXBK).

☆ ECB to look for signs of stress but banking crisis unlikely
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary Lagarde says rate hikes are just starting to biteLane says full-blown banking crisis is unlikelyFRANKFURT, March 22 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will watch for signs of stress in bank lending from the ongoing financial turmoil but a full-blown crisis is unlikely for now, the ECB's top brass said on Wednesday. But that's pretty much a tail scenario at this point in time," Lane told a conference on Wednesday. "For inflationary pressures to ease, it is important that our monetary policy works robustly in the restrictive direction," she said. Lane said he expected core prices to ease over time as lower fuel costs filter through to other sectors. Reporting By Francesco Canepa and Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Toby Chopra and Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ As Fed meeting looms, economists see central bank balance sheet in new light
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

BIG NUMBERSFed numbers showed the speed of the shift to a new balance sheet reality. Fed holdings peaked at just shy of $9 trillion last summer. The details of Fed holdings matters greatly in terms of understanding Fed balance sheet dynamics, analysts say. Benson Durham, head of global policy at Piper Sandler, said the key is the composition and not the size of Fed holdings. One factor limiting economists’ interpretation of the balance sheet surge is the fluidity of the factors now driving it.

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