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☆ The S&P 500 could climb 23% next year if Treasury yields fall and AI momentum stays strong, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Falling yields and continuing excitement for AI could boost the S&P 500 to 6,500, the firm said. "This expectation that AI hype will increase and that Treasury yields will fall underpins our long-standing forecast for the S&p 500 to hit 6,500 by end-2025." But narrow stock market rallies have the potential to last years, Rielly said, suggesting the stock market run-up could continue for now. Warnings of a market bubble have proliferated as the S&P 500 notched a series of record-highs this year. Capital Economics has also warned of a stock market correction akin to the 1929 and dot-com crashes, which could begin in early 2026.

Persons: That's, —, Reilly, that's, Rielly Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Treasury, Street, NVIDIA, Capital

☆ Home prices are falling at the fastest pace since 2022 as stubborn interest rates slash demand
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Home prices are dropping thanks to high mortgage rates weighing on demand. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up last week, hovering above 7%. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementHome prices are falling at the fastest pace in over a year, thanks to demand plunging amid stubbornly high mortgage rates, according to Redfin. That's the highest percentage of sellers that have slashed prices since November 2022, when the 30-year fixed mortgage rate spiked past 7% for the first time in more than 20 years.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Business

☆ 2 Yale researchers are pulling back the curtain on Russia's sanctions-stricken economy — and it's landed them on a list of Putin's enemies
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewJeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian, two researchers at the Yale School of Management, have been targeted for their views on Russia's economy since the war in Ukraine began. Soaring prices and ailing consumer sentiment have hit key sectors in Russia's economy, and Moscow is paying a huge cost to keep its war machine running. Steven Tian Courtesy of Steven TianAt that time, Tian and Sonnenfeld began noticing cracks forming in Russia's economy. "Putin has no grand strategy other than to hope Trump wins and cuts a favorable deal with Russia," Tian said. Positive forecasts on Russia's economy are based on a lack of visibility, Sonnenfeld and Tian say.

Persons: —, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Steven Tian, they've, Vladimir Putin's, Tian, Putin, he'd, Sonnenfeld, I've, Biden, Steven Organizations: Service, Yale School of Management, Business, Yale, IMF, Trump Locations: Ukraine, Moscow, Russia

☆ There's a 'buy' signal flashing for investors in the stock market right now as the long-term bull market pushes on, market vet says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The stock market is in a great spot for investors to jump in, Ed Yardeni says. The market vet still thinks stocks are in the midst of a long-term bull market that could last through 2030. AdvertisementThe latest pullback in stocks could represent a big "buy" signal for investors, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. Consumers have pulled back on goods spending, but they're spending more money on services, which is propping up the economy, Yardeni noted. Yardeni has been making the case for months that stocks are still in a long-term bull market and could soar through the rest of the decade.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Stocks, Yardeni, —, he's Organizations: Service, Yardeni, Dow, Bloomberg, Fed, Dow Jones

☆ Why one analyst sees a 20% drop for Nvidia stock in the next 18 months
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Nvidia stock can't keep climbing forever, according to DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria. The Wall Street veteran sees a decline of as much as 20% in Nvidia stock in the next few years. That trend will falter, Luria predicts, and he says he's anticipating a double-digit decline for the chip maker's stock within the next 18 months. Advertisement"My estimates for 2026 are the lowest on the Street," Luria said. AdvertisementLuria has warned of a long-term decline for Nvidia stock for months, though investors are still feeling pretty bullish.

Persons: Gil Luria, —, who's, Luria, It's, Tesla Organizations: Wall Street, Nvidia, Service

☆ From more inventory to lower prices, here are 3 signs the housing market may be getting better for buyers
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-23 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewThe housing market may be starting to turn a corner, offering frustrated buyers a chance to jump back into the market after a long stretch of dismal prospects. "We think the housing market is going to improve over the next half of a year," Glenn Kelman, the CEO of Redfin, in a recent interview. Inventory is risingMore inventory is finally trickling into the housing market, which could help push prices down. Elevated mortgage rates are a key problem in today's housing market, as they deter both buyers and sellers from making deals. Rates dropping to 5%-6% would make the housing market "explode," but even a 6.5% 30-year mortgage rate would be enough to make the housing market "very strong," Reffkin said.

Persons: —, Glenn Kelman, That's, Robert Reffkin, Reffkin, Freddie Mac, Redfin's Kelman, Kelman, Compass's Reffkin Organizations: Service, Business, National Association of Realtors, CNBC Locations: Reffkin, Texas, Florida

☆ Stock market today: Indexes slip as traders await Nvidia's earnings report
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-22 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks traded lower as investors waited for Nvidia's first-quarter earnings report after the close. Investors also took in comments from Fed officials, which suggested rate cuts weren't imminent. AdvertisementUS stocks slid lower on Wednesday as traders took looked ahead to Nvidia's highly anticipated first-quarter earnings report and took in the latest commentary from Federal Reserve speakers. All three benchmark indexes traded lower, while bond yields ticked higher. Markets have been dialing back their expectations for Fed rate cuts all year.

Persons: Nvidia's, —, Susan Collins, Loretta Mester Organizations: Investors, Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Boston, Cleveland Fed, Fed, Here's

☆ Trump's proposed tariffs would cost Americans $500 billion a year, think tank says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Trump's proposed tariffs could cost Americans $500 billion annually, a think tank estimated. The cost of tariffs is often passed onto consumers as producers raise prices. A 10% tariff on imports could cost households an extra $1,500 a year, researchers say. Researchers at the Peterson Institute warned Trump's planned taxes on imports could end up being a huge burden on working-class Americans. That's about five times the cost of Trump's tariffs in 2018, when he imposed taxes on imports of steel, aluminum, and other goods.

Persons: Trump's, —, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Washington DC, Peterson Institute, Business

☆ De-dollarization is 'a myth,' and there's no big shift taking place away from the US currency, commodities expert says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Practically no one is phasing out the dollar for trade or foreign reserves, he said. No one is dumping dollars," Christian said of de-dollarization in a recent presentation. Its closest competitor, the euro, accounted for just 19% of all central bank reserves in 2022, down from around 29% several decades ago. Advertisement"There has been a diversification of central bank foreign exchange holdings, but it's not at the expense of the dollar, and it's not away from the dollar," Christian said. "Clearly people are buying dollars in a much greater volume than they are selling dollars," Christian said.

Persons: Jeffrey Christian, —, Christian, it's, Chris Wallace, Wallace Organizations: CPM, Service, Bank of International Settlements, Monetary Fund, Federal Locations: Russia, China

☆ The US is reportedly rethinking plans to ban Russian diamonds amid industry pushback
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US is considering reducing efforts to enforce a ban on Russian diamonds, Reuters reported. AdvertisementThe US is rethinking restrictions on Russian diamonds after a wave of pushback from the industry and nations heavily involved in the diamond trade, Reuters reported on Monday. That's a step up from the initial sanctions, which previously allowed the trade of Russian diamonds that were polished in other countries. The government has received pushback from firms and nations heavily involved in the diamond trade. De Beers, one of the world's largest diamond miners, said it supported a ban on Russian diamonds but wants diamonds to be verified at the source of production, rather than in Belgium.

Persons: —, That's, crimp, Virginia Drosos, De Beers Organizations: Reuters, Service, European Union, White House, US, Signet, De Locations: European, Belgium, Russia

☆ The stock market will inflate another 20% before the bubble bursts, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock has another 20% rise left in it before the bubble deflates, Capital Economics predicted. That's because stocks tend to inflate rapidly right before the end of a bubble, the firm said. AdvertisementInvestors on the lookout for signs of a bubble should expect the stock market to be pumped up by another 20% before correcting, Capital Economics researchers said. According to John Higgins, Capital Economics' chief market economist, stocks look like they're in a late-stage bubble, meaning equities are in for a steep rally before the bubble eventually bursts. I think that it's a simple one really that involves a bubble inflating in the stock market," he said, pointing to the excitement for big tech.

Persons: —, John Higgins, There's, I'm, we've, Higgins, Bubbles Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Capital, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq

☆ It's shaping up to be a tough summer for the stock market, but Nvidia could help salvage things
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-20 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we examine how this summer is shaping up to be tough for the stock market . Stocks are on track to either remain flat or turn negative going forward , according to two market vets Jennifer spoke to. The pessimism about stocks' future is due to a few factors. Some Nvidia employees are considered to be millionaires SOPA ImagesThere is, however, one company that could salvage things: Nvidia. As the key chipmaker in the space, a win for Nvidia is a win for everyone betting on AI being the future.

Persons: —, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Jennifer Sor, Stocks, Jennifer, It's, Jerome Powell, BI's Linette Lopez, Warren Buffett Scott Morgan, Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, Goldman Sachs, Michael Burry, John Paulson, Alyssa Powell, Gen Zers, Instagram, Vincent Sandoval, Getty, Henrik Sorensen, Tyler Le, Larry Ellison, it's, aren't, Cash, Bill Lee, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, New York Knicks, NBA, Business, Getty, Fidelity, Hamptons, Nvidia, Reuters, Berkshire, JPMorgan, Meta, Sciences, Apple, The Locations: Montauk, Berkshire, New York, London

☆ It's going to be a long summer for the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The stock market is headed for a disappointing few months. And I think we should also be prepared to see some nasty aggressive selloff along the way," Morrison said. "Political volatility is, in itself… going to trip over stock market volatility," McGough warned. More extreme forecasters have predicted a market crash as steep as 65%, as equities mirror previous bubbles. You're probably going to come back without the material move one way or the other," McGough said.

Persons: there's, —, David Morrison, Morrison, Will McGough, McGough Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Business, Trade, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal Reserve, Prime Capital Investment Advisors, Fed, New York Fed, Treasury

☆ Investors and economists are getting worried about more bank failures as interest rates stay high
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Fears of a potential banking crisis are on the rise as interest rates stay elevated. Interest rates are now at their highest levels since 2001 as the Fed keeps an eye on inflation. Markets have already seen 1 regional bank fail this year, according to FDIC data. According to Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, the longer interest rates stay high, the more the Fed risks damaging the economy. "That's the kind of thing I'm worried about in the context of persistently high interest rates."

Persons: —, Mark Zandi, That's, Barry Sternlicht, Sternlicht, Daniel Pinto Organizations: Fed, Service, Analytics, Yahoo Finance, Bank, Regulators, First Bank, Fulton Bank, Stanhope Capital, Bloomberg Locations: Philadelphia, America

☆ The Fed needs to cut interest rates before inflation comes down, BlackRock's bond chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The Fed has a strong case to lower interest rates, according to BlackRock's Rick Rieder. The bond chief said high rates may stoke inflation, as the economy has shifted to being a net creditor. "I would lay out an argument that actually, if you cut interest rates, you bring down inflation," Rieder said. In an interview with Bloomberg TV, BlackRock's bond chief Rick Rieder argued that the Fed needs to loosen monetary policy before inflation falls. That's partly because high interest rates may actually be stoking inflation, thanks to the huge transfer of money in the economy from borrowers to lender, Rieder said.

Persons: BlackRock's Rick Rieder, Rieder, —, Rick Rieder Organizations: stoke, Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Business

☆ The consumer slowdown is here and its flashing a recession warning for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Consumer spending is slowing, and it's a warning shot for the US economy as it navigates the approach to a soft or a hard landing. Meanwhile, March retail sales were revised downward, with spending rising 0.6% instead of the initially reported 0.7%. The retail sales number was sluggish with a capital 'S,'" economist David Rosenberg said in a note this week. A hard landing has been postponed partly because of the strength of consumer spending in 2023, he wrote previously. The New York Fed sees a 50% chance that the economy will tip into recession by April 2025.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Primerica, Danielle DiMartino Booth, who's, Booth, Schwab, I've Organizations: Service, Business, Conference, New, Fed Locations: American, York

☆ Interest-rate cuts could be coming this fall, adding another wrinkle to an election set to focus on the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

In today's big story, inflation is cooling just in time for a US presidential election that will likely focus heavily on the economy . This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The big storyThe economy and the electionAnna Moneymaker/Getty, Anna Moneymaker/Getty, Tyler Le/BISometimes, the biggest surprise is when there isn't one at all. AdvertisementOn Wednesday, Biden and Trump agreed to face off in two debates, the first coming in June . Now he has 18 direct reports, according to an internal org chart seen by Business Insider.

Persons: —, Anna Moneymaker, Tyler Le, haven't, Insider's Madison Hoff, they're, Jennifer Sor, Ed Yardeni, Jerome Powell hasn't, Powell, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, Biden, Trump's, Alyssa Powell, Keith Gill's, Jim Simons, Shaw, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Sameer Samat, Sundar Pichai, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Biden, White, Democratic, Renaissance Technologies, Sigma, Bloomberg, Android, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Walmart Locations: New York, London

☆ Stock market today: S&P 500 closes at a record high as stocks rise on cooler April inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks soared on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 notching an all-time high. The benchmark index surpassed 5,300 for the first time after April inflation came in cooler than expected. AdvertisementUS stocks surged on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 breaking its all-time record as traders took in cooling inflation numbers. On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.3% in April, less than 0.4% in March. Slower economic activity helps lower inflation, though it could also indicate a slowdown in economic growth.

Persons: —, Preston Caldwell, Morningstar, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, LPL

☆ Nvidia's rally will run out of steam next year as the chip giant's customers become competitors, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The DA Davidson analyst has predicted as much as a 20% decline in Nvidia stock by the end of the year. Nvidia's largest customers could turn into competition as they develop their own AI chips, Luria warned. AdvertisementMost of Nvidia's business comes from its five largest customers, Luria said, which include Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Tesla. And while some of Nvidia's customers are stockpiling its GPUs, demand is bound to run out eventually, Luria previously told Bloomberg, as firms can only accumulate so many chips. AdvertisementLuria has among few forecasters who are bearish on Nvidia stock.

Persons: Gil Luria, Davidson, Luria, —, BNN, That's Organizations: Service, Nvidia, BNN Bloomberg, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, Apple, Bloomberg

☆ Why investors shouldn't be clamoring for rate cuts this summer
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

AdvertisementThe market should be careful what it wishes for when it comes to rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Ed Yardeni, a longtime market veteran, has warned of a stock market "meltup" if the Fed were to cut interest rates this summer. High interest rates on risk tipping the economy into recession, but lowering rates too quickly risks a resurgence in inflation, which could slam American consumers. Fed officials have said they're looking for more evidence inflation is on track to fall to its 2% price target before mulling rate cuts. AdvertisementFor the most part, investors aren't expecting interest rates to come down before September.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, meltdowns, Yardeni, —, they're Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Yardeni, Fed

☆ Stock market today: Stocks jump on cooler April inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks rose as traders took in slightly cooler inflation figures. Consumer prices rose 3.4% year-per-year in April, down from the prior month's 3.5% increase. Still, investors have muted expectations for Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. AdvertisementUS stocks jumped on Wednesday as traders took in the latest inflation report, which showed prices cooled slightly in April. Falling inflation has fueled some hope the Fed is set to issue several interest rate cuts this year, which is bullish for stocks.

Persons: —, Seema Shah, Sonu Varghese Organizations: Service, Treasury, Asset Management, Traders, Carson Group

☆ 2 brothers were just charged by the Justice Department over a $25 million crypto heist that took 12 seconds
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Two brothers were arrested and charged with pulling off a $25 million crypto heist in seconds. The DOJ said the Peraire-Bueno brothers tampered with the ethereum blockchain and funneled money to private accounts. AdvertisementTwo brothers were arrested and charged with a major crypto heist, the Department of Justice said on Wednesday. The pair stole around $25 million worth of crypto in a heist that took about 12 seconds. The Peraire-Bueno brothers were arrested on Tuesday and are set to appear in two separate courts Wednesday afternoon.

Persons: Bueno, —, Anton Peraire, James Peraire, Damian Williams, they've Organizations: DOJ, Service, Department of Justice, New, IRS, Southern, Justice Department Locations: Boston, New York

☆ 'The economy and stock market have never seen anything like this': There's an unprecedented number of recession signs flashing, veteran strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The US economy and stock market are on a clear path to recession, according to Paul Dietrich. The B. Riley Wealth Management CIO pointed to a handful of warning signs that suggest a downturn is on the horizon. The final blow to the economy could be the US pulling back on stimulus spending, he warned. AdvertisementThere's a large number of warnings flashing for the US that suggest the economy is on a near-certain path to recession, according to B. Riley Wealth's chief investment strategist Paul Dietrich. In a recent note, he pointed to a cluster of warning signs in the economy, such as hotter-than-expected inflation throughout the first quarter and greater volatility in the market.

Persons: Paul Dietrich, —, Riley Wealth's, Dietrich Organizations: Riley Wealth, Service, Wall Street, Business

☆ Russia's economy can't avoid a crisis forever and it's becoming more vulnerable to shocks, think tank researcher says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewRussia's economy is fragile and policymakers won't be able to stave off a crisis for very long, a think tank researcher argued in a post on Tuesday. AdvertisementRussia's economy has flashed key signs of weaknesses since the West first began imposing sanctions on the nation in 2022. And high interest rates, necessitated by all that inflation, stifle investment in productivity and further distort the economy," Kolyandr said. AdvertisementOther experts have noted that Russia faces a dilemma as it juggles managing its economy and prolonging its war against Ukraine. According to one European economist, the nation has become dependent on war for economic growth, and it can't afford to win or lose the war.

Persons: —, Alexander Kolyandr, Kolyandr, Putin Organizations: Service, Centre for, Kremlin, Business Locations: Russian, Ukraine, Central, Russia, West, Europe

☆ Meet the group preparing for a Soviet Union-type collapse of the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at the people preparing for the collapse of the financial system . The big storyPreparing for the worstAdobe; Chelsea Jia Feng/BIOpinions fluctuate on the economy, but one group has a decidedly strong take. In the subreddit r/economiccollapse, users are preparing for a Soviet Union-type fall of the US economy , writes Business Insider's Jennifer Sor. Further down the economic totem pole, ALICEs (asset limited, income constrained, employed) are struggling to make ends meet . 3 things in techAlex Wong/Getty Images, STR / Contributor/Getty Images, Stephane De Sakutin/Contributor/Getty Images, Abanti Chowdhury/BIHow Mark Zuckerberg turned against the news.

Persons: —, Chelsea Jia Feng, Jennifer Sor, Jennifer, aren't, Tyler, there's, Neil Dutta, Jim Simons, annualized, Alex Wong, Stephane De Sakutin, Abanti Chowdhury, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Rupert Murdoch, Sam Altman, Alyssa Powell, Rick Doblin, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: Service, Business, Chelsea, Macro, Renaissance Technologies, Big Tech, Apple, FDA, FOX Locations: Soviet Union, China, Washington, Beijing, New York, London, Chicago

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