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☆ Fed Chair Jerome Powell is once again the center of attention for markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Monday's 1.5% haircut for the S & P 500 was largely attributed to the unrest in China, but several traders brought up Fed Chair Jay Powell's Wednesday's speech at the Brookings Institution. Those comments, along with other hawkish sounding statements from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, have everyone convinced Powell will pull another Jackson Hole on Wednesday. Indeed mortgage rates are already lower: A 30-year fixed rate mortgage has gone to 6.81% today from 7.24% on November 11th, according to Bankrate. That is 200 points lower than were the S & P sits today. The issue is, how many times is Powell going to reiterate this theme before it gets old?

Market betting has been swinging between a 50- and a 75- basis-point increase when policymakers meet on Dec. 15. "It's extremely exciting but predicting the ECB for a market participant has become impossible," Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, said. That saves it from more painful changes of tack after ECB President Christine Lagarde went from all but ruling-out rate hikes this year to presiding over the steepest tightening cycle in the euro's history. But Lane said in a blog post on Friday it may "overstate" how persistent inflation may be. "Inflation is being driven by factors they can't control," he added, citing energy prices, geopolitical tensions and supply-chain disruptions as some of them.

☆ The window is closing on corporate 'greedflation.' It's another sign that inflation is cooling off.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

"US profit margins surged after the recession. "Greedflation" — the idea that companies are using inflation as an excuse to raise prices and boost profits — could be part of the explanation. But they have also taken advantage of circumstances to expand profit margins," said UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan. To what extent soaring corporate profits are to blame for high inflation remains uncertain, but as inflation slows down, the negative CEO sentiment suggests some companies' profits are set to fall as well. In September, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said retailers' profit margins "have risen significantly more than the average hourly wage that retailers pay workers."

☆ Fed offers more rate hike clues
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

At its November 2 meeting the Fed raised rates by three-quarters of a percentage point — its fourth straight hike of such a large magnitude. But Fed chair Jerome Powell suggested at a press conference that the Fed may soon begin to slow the pace of hikes. The minutes from that meeting showed that several other Fed policymakers agreed with Powell’s assessment. The job market remains relatively healthy as well, although the most recent jobless claims figures ticked up from a week ago. But as long as the labor market remains firm and inflation pressures continue to ebb, the Fed will likely pull back on the magnitude of its rate hikes.

☆ The week in review, the week ahead — Nov. 18, 2022
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

It certainly gave the market some pause in the back half of the week. Looking ahead, we remind members that markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and will close early at 1:00 p.m. Also Thursday, initial jobless claims for the week ending Nov. 12 came in at 222,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the prior week and below expectations of 228,000. Below are some other earnings reports and economic numbers to watch in the week ahead. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ Stocks fall as fears of more big Fed rate hikes resurface
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The Dow was off about 30 points, or 0.1%, in midday trading following comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard about the possibility of much bigger interest rate hikes. Jefferson didn’t comment specifically about how much higher he thinks rates need to go though in order to get inflation in check. In addition, Bullard has a vote on rate hikes at the Fed’s next meeting in December, but he does not have a say on interest rates in 2023. The seven Fed governors and the New York Fed president are always on the FOMC. The St. Louis Fed president doesn’t get a vote again until 2025.

☆ Elizabeth Warren slams the Fed for risking 'pushing our economy off a cliff': 'There is a big difference between landing a plane and crashing a plane'
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Sen. Warren slammed the Federal Reserve for risking "pushing our economy off a cliff." She disagreed with the Fed's strategy to aggressively hike interest rates to fight inflation. Continuing to raise rates could push the economy into a recession and cause job losses, Warren said. The Fed needs to slow down on these extreme rate hikes and remember its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. But, as Insider previously reported, lower interest rate hikes could be on the horizon as the economy continues to recover from the pandemic.

That came on the heels of last week's report that October consumer prices rose less than anticipated, and Fed officials have signaled they are likely done with the three-quarter-point rate increases approved at the central bank's last four meetings. "Tech companies may have over-extrapolated the rapid growth they experienced during the pandemic and are now correcting for over-hiring," the Goldman economists wrote. Job growth through October remained strong but was moderating from its pre-pandemic highs, and Fed officials said they saw some initial signs that wage growth was beginning to cool. Curbing demand is one aim of Fed rate increases that have come at the fastest pace in 40 years on the expectation that less consumption will translate into less inflation. "You'd actually expect more competitive pressure to start bringing those costs down," Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said Monday at a Bloomberg event.

☆ Premarket stocks: Wall Street bonus outlook is grim
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN Business —Ferragamo belt-buckles are being tightened across Wall Street as bankers prepare for a gloomy bonus season. “This is a canary in the coalmine for the economy, if the canary dies that’s not good for anybody,” said Johnson. In recent years, Amazon has gradually been growing its footprint in the health care sector. Earlier this year, Amazon agreed to acquire One Medical, a membership-based primary care service, for $3.9 billion. The big picture: Amazon isn’t the only Big Tech company attempting to cash-in on a chunk of the health care industry.

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2022. Home Depot Inc (HD.N) left its annual forecasts unchanged, but the home improvement chain's results exceeded Wall Street expectations and shares rose 1.6% amid a jump in shares of retailers. Among the S&P 500 sectors, consumer staples was up (.SPLRCS) 1.2%, while the consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) index jumped 1.9%. Atlanta President Raphael Bostic echoed the views, saying he sees little evidence that the central bank's aggressive monetary policy tightening is slowing inflation. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 5.30-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 2.80-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The Producer Price Index measures inflation at the firm level, showing the change in prices paid for the supplies, materials and services that businesses use, and for the final goods that retailers resell. Prices for final goods less volatile commodities and shipping costs rose 0.2% in October, continuing a slow pace for those "core" items. The model shows the Fed rate now rising only to 4.75%-5.00% in March, whereas a week ago it showed the Fed rate likely exceeding 5% by then. The breakeven-inflation rate on the 5-year Treasury Inflation Protected Security slid to the lowest in a month at 2.38%. Shepherdson has been focused on the producer price index as more important than usual because of market distortions driven by the pandemic, and said that a drop in the index's margin components would influence the direction of consumer prices going forward.

☆ Treasury yields dip as traders await key inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.3677% after declining by four basis points. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday as markets awaited the release of October's producer price index figures and digested U.S. Federal Reserve speaker commentary. Markets are hoping that the data will provide more clarity on whether overall inflation is cooling, after consumer inflation figures released on Thursday hinted at this. He also indicated that the Fed would consider slowing rate hikes, but a pause to them is not imminent. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard also hinted at a potential slowdown of rate hikes in remarks made on Monday.

☆ European markets head for mixed open as investors guage economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

European markets are heading for a mixed open on Tuesday as investors guage the economic outlook in the region and wider global economy. The mixed sentiment comes after a choppy session in the United States on Monday, after comments from Federal Reserve leaders Lael Brainard and Chris Waller about interest rate hikes. While Brainard said the central bank could ease rate increases, Waller said the market was overly optimistic and should brace itself for higher rates. Shares in the Asia-Pacific were mostly higher on Tuesday following the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden. Global markets will be watching events at the Group of Twenty summit in Bali, Indonesia, that kicks off on Tuesday.

☆ Gold hovers near 3-month high on hopes of smaller Fed hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. Spot gold was steady at $1,770.70 per ounce, as of 0122 GMT, after hitting its highest since Aug. 17 in the previous session. The dollar index rose 0.3% against its rivals, making gold more expensive for other currency holders. The Fed will likely soon slow its interest rates hikes, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard signaled on Monday, but emphasized the central bank still had more work to do. SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.03% to 910.41 tons on Monday from 910.12 tons on Friday.

☆ Citadel boss Ken Griffin likens Fed rate hike policy to taking a course of antibiotics, says taking the foot off the brake now would be a 'mistake'
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed needs to stay on the course with its monetary policy, Citadel founder and CEO Ken Griffin said. Griffin said the Fed should not veer from its path of rate hikes until inflation is conquered. Lower-than-expected inflation in October prompted some experts to nudge the Fed into slowing its rate hikes. Doing so would be "the absolute worst mistake the Fed could possibly make" and could cost the Fed its credibility, Griffin added. His comments followed a lower-than-expected inflation rate of 7.7% in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

☆ Futures rise on U.S.-China talks, inflation data in focus
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

U.S.-listed shares of Chinese firms Alibaba Group Holding Ltd , Baidu Inc , Pinduoduo Inc (PDD.O) and JD.Com Inc climbed between 5.7% and 11.2%. Biden and Xi agreed to allow senior officials to renew communication on climate, debt relief and other issues, according to the White House. ET, which is expected to show producer prices rose 8.3% annually in October after advancing 8.5% in September, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, the producer prices index is expected to have increased 7.2% last month, in line with September's gains. ET, Dow e-minis were up 156 points, or 0.46%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 30.5 points, or 0.77%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 143.5 points, or 1.22%.

☆ Dollar rebounds as Fed officials say hikes to continue; yen slumps
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index , which measures the currency against six counterparts including the yen, euro and sterling, edged 0.03% higher to 107.00 early in the Asian day. The index held onto gains made on Monday when it rebounded from a three-month low of 106.27 hit on Friday. The dollar gained 0.34% to 140.40 yen , adding to its 0.84% overnight rebound from a 2 1/2-month low of 138.46. The euro was little changed at $1.03215 following its retreat from a three-month high of $1.0364. The offshore Chinese yuan was little changed at 7.0461 per dollar, after hitting a more than five-week high of 7.0200 in the previous session.

☆ Inflation is cooling, and Wall Street loves it
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Investors are hoping that the cooling inflation pressures will lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by smaller amounts in the next few months, following four consecutive historically large hikes. But it’s the good news on the inflation front that is giving investors the biggest cause for jubilation. Those comments soothed investors, who were spooked by remarks from another Fed official about inflation and interest rates. The Fed is clearly still more concerned about inflation than it is the possibility its aggressive rate hikes will slow the economy. That means the market should get used to the notion that interest rates are going to keep climbing and may stay elevated for some time.

☆ Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in October, less than expected, as inflation eases
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Wholesale prices increased less than expected in October, adding to hopes that inflation is on the wane, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly increase equaled September's gain of 0.2%. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the index also rose 0.2% on the month and 5.4% on the year. Hopes that inflation is at least slowing spiked last week when the CPI showed a monthly gain of 0.4%, lower than the 0.6% estimate. The central bank has hiked its benchmark borrowing rate six times year for a total of 3.75 percentage points, its highest level in 14 years.

☆ Morning Bid: Detente and dollars
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Nupur Anand | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. As investors closely monitor shifting economic sands, signs of some easing of this year's tense geopolitics adds a tailwind to the yearend market bounce. The dollar's ongoing retreat, amid hopes of a downshift in U.S. interest rate rises next month that Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard encouraged late Monday, also riffs off a defusing of at least some extreme political risks. JPMorgan cut its full-year 2022 China growth forecast to 2.9% from 3.1% previously and its 2023 forecast to 4% from 4.5%. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ The US dollar has fallen to a 3-month low after easing inflation in October dampened expectations for more big rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US Dollar Index dropped to a three-month low on Tuesday, dipping below 106. The Fed will likely slow rate hikes in December but a full-on Fed pivot remains elusive. The US Dollar Index fell by as much as 1.2% to 105.34, the lowest print since August 11. This builds on expectations that the Fed will slow the pace of rate hikes," Fiona Cincotta, senior financial markets analyst at City Index, wrote in a note. "I would instead look at these readings as a reason for the overall pace of US interest rate hikes to slow because inflation expectations are still at a sustained high level."

☆ How the crypto fallout could affect you
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN Business —The crypto industry is still reeling from last week’s shocking death spiral of digital currency exchange FTX. While these funds say they had limited exposure to FTX, their inclusion points to a growing but alarming trend that could affect you even if you’re not a buyer of crypto yourself. What’s happening: Pension funds are increasingly investing in alternative assets in search of bigger returns. In the United States, public pension funds are facing serious challenges that threaten the retirement plans of millions of state and local government employees. It’s not just a trend that’s happening in the United States.

The surge in stocks and bonds, and steep dollar slide last week sparked one of the biggest loosening of financial conditions in decades. "We see this as another example of the inherent challenges that come from trying to slow the pace of hikes without easing financial conditions." chartchartEvery time investors and traders begin to price a Fed 'pivot', market conditions loosen, and inflationary pressures rise. Policy decisions affect financial conditions immediately, but the full effects of changing financial conditions on inflation are felt much later, Powell told reporters. Related columns:- Fed 'pivot' draws closer, but the word has had its day (Nov. 11)- China reopening may add inflation headache (Nov. 9)- Hedge funds capitulate on Fed pivot (Nov. 6)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ We just got another strong sign inflation is cooling off
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Producer Price Index data out Tuesday shows another sign that inflation is cooling. October's rise marks another month of PPI for final demand falling below the previous year-over-year increase; October's year-over-year increase of 8.0% falls below the 8.4% increase seen in September. Looking at month-over-month data, PPI increased 0.2% over the month in October, like it did in September, based on seasonally adjusted figures. With both showing signs of cooling, PPI and CPI data together show that the worst of inflation could be over. The Dow also saw a massive rise on November 10, the day of the release of October's CPI data.

☆ Fed’s Brainard Says Rate-Rise Pace Can Slow Soon
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

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