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☆ Russia is likely to claim a big victory in Bakhmut as 1-year anniversary of its invasion approaches, regardless of the reality on the ground, UK intel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Joshua Zitser | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia is under increasing political pressure to capture Bakhmut by February 24, UK intel said. It's "likely" that Russia will claim victory there regardless of the reality on the ground, it said. Analysts say that Russia will struggle to seize Bakhmut by the first anniversary of the Ukraine war. "It is likely that Russia will claim that Bakhmut has been captured to align with the anniversary, regardless of the reality on the ground," the MoD said. The UK intelligence update added that Russia is continuing to pursue several offensive axes in eastern Ukraine, with casualties reportedly remaining high in Bakhmut.

☆ 30,000 Wagner Group fighters have been killed or injured in Putin's invasion of Ukraine, says White House spokesman
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-18 | by ( Bethany Dawson | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

More than 30,000 Wagner Group fighters have been killed or injured, according to US officials. John Kirby said that half of the Wagner fighters who perished in the war have died since mid-December. Kirby stated that, according to US intelligence, 90% of the Wagner Group soldiers killed in the last two and a half months were convicts. While the Wagner Group has made limited advances in Bakhmut, Kirby said this gain has come at a "devastating cost that is not sustainable." According to British intelligence, 40-60,000 Russian soldiers and Wagner Group fighters have been killed since February 2022.

☆ Senior US diplomat underwhelmed by Russia's new offensive in Ukraine: 'If this is it, it is very pathetic'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Russia's new offensive in Ukraine so far appears to be "pathetic," a senior US diplomat said. Victoria Nuland said that Russia has made little progress and was underestimating Ukraine. Both sides are still "grinding," and Ukraine hasn't started its fightback yet, she said. It's likely that Russia will increase its efforts, throwing more troops and weapons at Ukraine. Nuland, who said Ukraine is planning its own counteroffensive for later on, attributed Russia's poor performance to President Vladimir Putin underestimating Ukraine and how much the West would support it.

☆ Some Russian units have suffered up to 80% losses in the east, Ukraine claims
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Some Russian units in the east have had 80% casualties, Ukraine's deputy defense minister said. This includes NATO intelligence that says Russia is losing 2,000 men for every 100 yards it gains. Hanna Maliar said in a statement on Thursday that up to 80% of personnel had been incapacitated in some Russian army units, including units of the Wagner paramilitary group. But other reports, accounts by Russian soldiers, as well as Western intelligence updates have all pointed to high losses within Russia's army, particularly in recent weeks. Meanwhile, the UK Ministry of Defence said on Friday that up to 200,000 Russian soldiers had likely been killed since the invasion started in February 2022.

☆ A Russian marine who survived bitter fighting in Vuhledar says soldiers left alive are being treated like deserters: 'It would have been better if I had been captured'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A Russian marine who survived a major battle in Vuhledar said survivors are treated as deserters. There were just eight survivors in one company, he told Russian media outlet 7x7. The marine, part of the 155th Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, told Russian media outlet 7x7 that "it would have been better if I had been captured and never returned." So far things have not gone to plan, according to Russian military bloggers, Ukrainian officials, and reports of the battle. Ukrainian military drones have also captured the scenes of chaos, including Russian tanks running into minefields and being blown up, CNN reported.

☆ Russia has spent 9 months bleeding troops to try to capture a city with limited strategic value, experts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Russia has spent nine months trying to capture Bakhmut in a slow and brutal campaign. Experts say the city does not even have that much strategic value. Ukrainians fighting in the city say it has been a "living hell" for months, while commanders on both sides have called the battle a "meat grinder." But ultimately, experts say, the city may not be important enough to justify the effort and expense Russia has put into it. A map showing the location of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.

☆ Russia has likely suffered its highest rate of casualties since the beginning of the war in the past 2 weeks, UK Defense Ministry says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-12 | by ( Alia Shoaib | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

In the last 2 weeks, Russian casualties are likely the highest since the war began, the UK said. The Ukrainian General Staff estimated that the mean average for the last seven days was 824 Russian casualties. While it is difficult to accurately track the death toll of the war, Western officials estimate that Russia could be approaching nearly 200,000 casualties. A Ukrainian soldier fires towards Russian positions outside Bakhmut, Ukraine, on November 8, 2022. Although Prigozhin does not speak for the Russian military, his comments provide insight into Russian expectations of the war.

☆ After months of stalemate, it looks like Russia's long-feared new offensive in Ukraine has begun
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Mia Jankowicz | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia's threats of a renewed assault on Ukraine are already coming to pass, a military chief said. Multiple reports indicate a flurry of Russian attacks along the front line in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine says Russia hasn't had much success so far but "fighting has intensified," one soldier said. Ukrainian politician Anton Geraschenko tweeted on Wednesday that the Russian offensive is already taking place. Officials and analysts have been predicting for months that a new Russian offensive would begin in the spring, with the country likely to commit hundreds of thousands of additional soldiers to the fight.

☆ Russia has lost at least 1,500 tanks since the start of the Ukraine war, more than half of its invasion force: report
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

More than 1,500 Russian tanks have been lost since it invaded Ukraine, a monitoring group found. That's over half of the operational tanks Russia likely started its invasion with, the group said. It also said that it was able to confirm 79 additional Russian tanks as damaged, and 65 that it could confirm as abandoned. Reports of Russian tanks destroyed and Ukrainian troops seizing tanks from Russian forces have been widespread since the invasion began. Germany is sending Ukraine its Leopard 2 tanks, with other European countries also planning to send tanks to Ukraine.

☆ Russia's top prosecutor criticizes mass mobilization, telling Putin to his face that more than 9,000 were illegally sent to fight in Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Russia's prosecutor general told Putin more than 9,000 mobilized troops were called up illegally. In a face-to-face meeting, he said their health was why many shouldn't have been sent to fight in Ukraine. In September, Russia announced a partial mobilization of 300,000 troops, which it said was completed in October. Putin said in December that 150,000 of those troops had been sent to serve in Ukraine, with the rest still in training in Russia. Widespread issues related to Russia's mass mobilization have long been reported, including a lack of training and equipment.

☆ Russia is preventing migrant workers from leaving the country as authorities consider more military call-ups, UK intel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Joshua Zitser | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Russia is keeping dual-citizen migrant workers from leaving the country, UK military intel says. It cited a report that said Kyrgyz workers were stopped by border guards as they tried to leave. Russia is "keeping open the option" of another round of military call-ups, per the update. The UK defense ministry said these reports come as Russian authorities are "keeping open the option" of another round of military call-ups. But this latest UK military update said that Russia's leadership is "highly likely" to continue looking for ways to meet the huge numbers of personnel required to launch any future offensive in Ukraine.

☆ Russia dismissed a successful commander as power struggles grip its top ranks, UK intelligence says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Russia dismissed a top general who had been praised for his performance in Ukraine, the UK MOD said. The MOD said there are "continued divisions" in the Russian military since the shake up. Ukrainian news agency Ukrinform reported on Tuesday that Teplinsky "cursed at" Gerasimov during a meeting and was "immediately dismissed." Other Russian military figures have also been given new roles as part of the reshuffle. The UK ministry suggested earlier this month that Russia had been using almost all deployable VDV troops as ground-holding troops up until November.

☆ Russia's new top general in Ukraine is fixated on getting soldiers to shave more often, sparking derision among its military, UK intel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia's new Ukraine general is fixated on soldiers' shaving habits, the UK defense ministry said. Valery Gerasimov's focus is drawing the ire of other military factions, it added. The UK defense ministry said that Gerasimov's focus on grooming is drawing the ire of officials in Russia-occupied areas, who see it as a pointless distraction. The UK defense ministry said that Gerasimov's focus on aspects like shaving means he's yet to prove his critics wrong where it counts: on the battlefield. Washington-based think-tank the Institute for the Study of War, meanwhile, said this month that the new Russian focus on personal habits may have a purpose, Insider's Jake Epstein reported.

☆ Drone footage shows Ukrainian forces trapping fighters from Russia's Wagner Group in a lethal crossfire
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-14 | by ( Bethany Dawson | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Drone footage shows the Ukrainian troops annihilating a unit of Wagner fighters in Soledar. The video shows soldiers — who the State Border Service of Ukraine identified as Wagner Group fighters — being monitored by a drone. The soldiers then come under fire from Ukrainian fighters using large-caliber machine guns, resulting in a number of injuries, according to the border force. In a Telegram post, the State Border Service of Ukraine described the events. "Although the enemy has concentrated its greatest forces in this direction, our troops – the Armed Forces of Ukraine, all defense and security forces – are defending the state."

☆ As shelling over Ukrainian cities continue, Putin claims he's ready for talks that could end the war. Others says he's bluffing or growing weary.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-25 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A leading think tank says Russian forces are growing weary in their offensive attacks. The Russian president has previously made comments about wanting to end the war. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank, suggested that Russian war efforts are weakening. The ISW suggested that the developments could lead Russian forces to initiate a tactical or operational pause. In an effort to break from Russian traditions, some Orthodox Ukrainians celebrated Christmas on December 25, as opposed to January 7 in line with the Russian Orthodox Church.

☆ Russia is considering plans to expand its military by around 30%, to 1.5 million troops, says British intelligence
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Putin was given a plan to boost Russia's military by 30%, to 1.5 million personnel, the UK MOD said. It is not clear when Russia would have these new troops and how it would get them, the UK MOD added. Sweden and Russian neighbor Finland applied to join NATO in May, citing Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and are close to the end of the process. Russia's army has struggled since its invasion of Ukraine, with widespread reports and intelligence updates highlighting poor training and low morale among its troops. In September, Russia announced a partial mobilization of an additional 300,000 troops, which it said was completed in October.

☆ Russia’s army is so ineffective it will probably not be able to take much territory in Ukraine for ‘the next several months’, UK intel says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The UK MOD said Russia looked unlikely to make any big gains in Ukraine for months. It's highly unlikely that Russia can generate an effective striking force in the coming months, it said. Ukraine, meanwhile, predicted an increase in its offensive moves once the ground freezes. The British defense ministry said in an intelligence update on Monday that "Russian ground forces are unlikely to make operationally significant advances within the next several months." On December 3, Avril Haines, the US National Intelligence Director, said that winter conditions are expected to slow the war, and that there was already a "reduced tempo."

☆ Russia is likely removing nuclear warheads from cruise missiles and firing them into Ukraine, the UK says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-26 | by ( Alia Shoaib | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Russia is likely firing cruise missiles with nuclear warheads removed into Ukraine, UK's defense ministry said. The defense ministry said that open source imagery appeared to show an AS-15 KENT air-launched cruise missile that had been shot down in Ukraine. Russian warship launching a cruise missile. US officials previously said that Russia is likely struggling to replenish its stockpiles due to sanctions and supply chain disruptions, the Associated Press reported. Russia has not provided any information about its missile supplies, and there is no data to assess it independently.

☆ Russia mined Kherson as it retreated, trying to turn it into a 'city of death,' says Ukraine official
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

One official said Russia laid mines to make a "city of death." The UK Ministry of Defence also said Russia likely laid mines as it withdrew. Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said on Thursday that Russia "wants to turn Kherson into a 'city of death.'" He said Russia "mines everything they can: apartments, sewers." The UK Ministry of Defence also said on Thursday that Russian troops likely laid mines as they moved back.

☆ Drafted Russians were deployed to Ukraine without weapons and expected to dig trenches with their bare hands, relative says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Kit Gillet | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Hundreds of drafted Russians are already dead in Ukraine, Russian media reported. Earlier reports have highlighted the lack of training and equipment given to Russian soldiers. Hundreds of recently mobilized Russian soldiers have died on the front line in Ukraine's Luhansk region, according to Russian news outlets, following three days of shelling by the Ukrainian army. They were given four grenades, they dug the ground with their hands," Ekaterina Brazhnikova, the sister of a different mobilized soldier, told the news outlet. Earlier reports have highlighted the seemingly lack of training and equipment for Russian soldiers.

☆ Russia has likely deployed units meant to shoot its own retreating soldiers, UK intel says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia is likely using "blocking units" to threaten to shoot retreating soldiers, UK intel said. A UK intelligence briefing ascribed the move to "low morale and reluctance to fight." "These units threaten to shoot their own retreating soldiers in order to compel offensives and have been use in previous conflicts by Russian forces," it added. The defense ministry said that the tactic of shooting deserters "likely attests to the low quality, low morale, and indiscipline of Russian forces". Russian President Vladimir Putin has actively intervened to stop his troops retreating.

☆ Russian officers and medics evacuated from Kherson region leaving inexperienced soldiers to defend the annexed city from advancing Ukrainian forces, says think tank
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-23 | by ( Bethany Dawson | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

"Russia's poorly trained, newly mobilized reservists are very unlikely to stand and resist a Ukrainian counterattack if Ukrainian forces chose to attack them and chase the withdrawing forces," it said. STRINGER/AFP via Getty ImagesKherson, which had a prewar population of 280,000, is the only regional capital to be captured by Russian forces. On Saturday, The UK Ministry of Defense said that Russian forces had built a barge bridge alongside the damaged Antonovskiy bridge in Kherson and forecasted it would become a critical crossing point for retreating Russian forces. The ISW also said that Russian forces are removing patients from the Kakhovka Hospital on the Dnipro's left bank to clear space for anticipated Russian casualties. The reported Russian retreat comes amidst reports of Putin's military faltering in Ukraine, losing momentum, men, and equipment.

☆ A month after Putin started drafting Russians to fight in Ukraine, some are already coming home in body bags
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Some, Putin said, are trained for as little as 10 days, leading commentators to conclude they were effectively cannon fodder. In Western armies, it would likely be impossible to die within a month of enlistment, because training lasts much longer than that. Radio Free Europe, the US-funded outlet, also reported deaths among newly-mobilized men, swiftly returned to Russia in body bags. Alberque said the mobilized troops probably could not fight effectively — and may never have been meant to. David Betz, a professor in the War Studies department, also at King's said that so few mobilized troops had arrived that their effective casualty rate was "zero."

☆ A Russian fighter jet fired off a missile while shadowing a Royal Air Force recon plane on patrol over the Black Sea, UK says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Jake Epstein | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A Russian fighter jet recently released a missile near a Royal Air Force reconnaissance aircraft. The UK's Ben Wallace said the plane was patrolling over the Black Sea when the engagement happened. He said Thursday that Moscow delivered a response earlier in October that blamed the incident on a technical issue with the fighter jet after conducting an investigation. "The UK Ministry of Defense has shared this information with allies, and after consultation, I've restarted routine patrols — but this time escorted by fighter aircraft," Wallace said. This wouldn't be the first instance where a fighter jet fired a missile when it wasn't supposed to.

☆ China is headhunting former British pilots to train its forces, and the UK military is desperate to stop it, officials say
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Jake Epstein | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The UK says its military pilots are being recruited by China to help train Beijing's army. According to British media reports, pilots are making as much as $270,000 a year for their help. According to the BBC, China wants to use the pilots to deepen its understanding of Western planes and their operators. To warn military personnel against these efforts, the defense ministry's defense intelligence service even issued a "threat alert" on Tuesday, the report said. The UK defense ministry spokesperson referred to the situation as a "contemporary" security issue in a statement to Insider and said the country is trying to clamp down on security legislation.

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