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☆ Asian shares ride high in Q1 but steel for U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Japan's Nikkei (.N225) also gained 1%，as inflation data for the capital city Tokyo highlighted broadening price pressures. A slower than expected decline in German inflation has raised the stakes for U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, tracked by the Federal Reserve for monetary policy, later in the day. Economists are expecting the PCE index to ease to 0.4% in February from January when it rose 0.6%. "With central banks still mindful of inflation risks, interest rates will stay at their peaks for several months. That compared with an overwhelming bet on a 25 basis point hike a month ago before the banking volatility started.

☆ National Australia Bank lowers peak rate call for Australia to 3.85%, from 4.1%
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

SYDNEY, March 30 (Reuters) - National Australia Bank said on Thursday it expects Australian interest rates to peak at 3.85%, down from a previous estimate of 4.1%. NAB added it still expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its official cash rate by 25 basis points in April for a final time, beginning rate cuts in the first half of 2024. "We continue to see rate cuts in H1 2024 bringing the cash rate back to 3.1% as the economy slows and unemployment rises," the bank's chief economist Alan Oster said in a statement. Fellow Australian bank Westpac also cut its peak rate forecast to 3.85% earlier this month. Reporting by Stella Qiu in Sydney Editing by Alasdair PalOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Australia's inflation slows to 8-month low in Feb, adding to rate pause case
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, March 29 (Reuters) - Australian inflation slowed to an eight-month low in February, thanks in part to a sharp retreat in holiday travel and accommodation, adding to the case for a pause in interest rate hikes next month. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed its monthly consumer price index (CPI) rose 6.8% in the year to February, the slowest since June last year. Prices excluding volatile fruit, vegetables and fuel rose 6.9% in the year to February, down from 7.5% in January. While many analysts still think the RBA will hike at least once more, some believe it might pause in April before moving in May following inflation data for the first quarter. Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Australia retail sales level off in Feb as shoppers rein in spending
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SYDNEY, March 28 (Reuters) - Australian retail sales levelled off in February after wild swings around the year-end holidays, suggesting consumers are reining in spending in the face of higher living costs and rising interest rates. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Tuesday showed retail sales rose just 0.2% in February, compared to a revised 1.8% rise in January. Sales of A$35.14 billion ($23.48 billion) were 6.4% higher than a year earlier. The figure beat median forecasts of a 0.1% rise, pushing the local dollar higher to $0.6674 , up 0.4% for the day. Australia employment rebounded strongly in February, the jobless rate eased back to near 50-year lows, and business conditions remained resilient.

☆ Australia retail sales growth slows to 0.2% in February
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

SYDNEY, March 28 (Reuters) - Australian retail sales eked out a meagre gain in February after wild swings around year-end holidays, indicating shoppers are reining in spending in the face of higher costs of living and rising interest rates. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Tuesday showed retail sales rose 0.2% in February from January, when they picked up a revised 1.8%. Sales of A$35.14 billion ($23.42 billion) were 6.4% higher than a year earlier. The result was just a touch above median forecasts of a rise of 0.1%. ($1 = 1.5004 Australian dollars)Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Christopher CushingOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ World stocks gyrate as bank contagion fears bite
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Koh Gui Qing | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The growing sense of unease about the global banking system is heightening volatility in stock markets around the world," said Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere Group, a financial advisor. The failure of U.S. regional banks Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) and Signature Bank (SBNY.O) this month triggered fears of a banking contagion and prompted U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday to pledge action to safeguard bank deposits. JP Morgan Chase (JPM.N) dropped 1.52%, the S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) was down 0.33%, while the KBW regional bank index (.KRX) climbed 2.92%. "I don't expect this volatility (in bank stocks) to subside anytime soon," said Peter Doherty, head of investment research at private bank Arbuthnot Latham in London. Doherty said issues of "contagion risk within the U.S. banking sector" were undoubtedly weighing on appetite for bank stocks elsewhere.

☆ Asian markets take breather from banking turmoil, capping tumultuous week
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.9% on Friday, erasing earlier losses this week. S&P 500 futures eased 0.1% and Nasdaq futures were flat after major U.S. stock indices rallied hard on easing fear of a global banking crisis. This is a theme other central banks are likely to echo," said James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities. Yields were, however, headed for the steepest weekly decline since February 2020 when markets were thrown into chaos by COVID-19 fear. "The past week has provided an unwelcome reminder of the inherent fragility of banking systems," said analysts at Capital Economics in a note to client.

☆ Australia report calls for tax, migration reforms as productivity stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SYDNEY, March 17 (Reuters) - Australia's Productivity Commission called on the federal government on Friday to improve tax and migration systems, remove import tariffs and secure net-zero carbon emissions at the lowest cost to boost stalling economic productivity. The report titled "Advancing Prosperity" and produced once every five years, made 71 recommendations, while warning that the country's low productivity growth, which has hit the slowest since the 1970s, would curtail long-term prosperity. "Lifting Australia's productivity growth will involve a combination of economy-wide and structural reforms, in addition to targeted policies in particular sectors to push Australian industries closer to the global frontier," said the report. "The Albanese government takes the productivity challenge seriously which is why we've committed to a range of productivity-enhancing investments and reforms," said Chalmers in a statement on Friday. Chalmers said the government would not be taking up every single recommendation from the report, but that government plans are aligned with the proposed themes.

☆ Australia employment rebounds in Feb, jobless drops back to near 50-yr lows
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, March 16 (Reuters) - Australia employment rebounded strongly in February after two months of declines, while the jobless rate fell back to near 50-year lows, suggesting the country's labour market remained tight amid a slew of interest rate hikes by the central bank. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Thursday that net employment rose 64,600 in February from January, when they fell a revised 10,900. The jobless rate dropped to 3.5%, from 3.7%, when analysts had looked for a dip to 3.6%, while hours worked jumped by 3.9% in another signal of resilience. Full-time employment soared by 74,900 jobs in February, compared with a drop of 43,300 the previous month. That prompted investors to price out any chance of another rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

☆ Asian shares stutter, dollar buoyant as data supports hawkish Powell
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) eased 0.2% on Thursday, extending a drop of 1.4% the previous session. S&P 500 futures eased 0.1% and Nasdaq futures were off 0.3%Inflation data out of China showed on Thursday that domestic demand still remained tepid. The U.S. dollar index, measuring the greenback's value against a basket of major peers, hovered close to a three-month top at 105.6. The central bank on Wednesday left its key overnight interest rate on hold, becoming the first major central bank to suspend its monetary tightening campaign. On Thursday, the two-year Treasury yields held close to its 15 year highs at 5.0553%, while the benchmark 10-year yields were steady at 3.9775%.

☆ Australia's central bank says closer to pausing on rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, March 8 (Reuters) - The head of Australia's central bank on Wednesday said it was closer to pausing its aggressive cycle of rate increases as policy was now in restrictive territory, and suggested a halt could come as soon as April. "At what point it will be appropriate to pause will be determined by the data and our assessment of the outlook." The dovish message saw markets scale back the likely peak for rates to 4.10%, compared to 4.35% a week ago. "More fundamentally, the combination of cost-of-living pressures, higher interest rates and the decline in housing values is weighing on consumption." Reporting by Wayne Cole and Stella Qiu; Editing by Chris Reese and Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Australia central bank tempers hawkish outlook after hiking rates to over decade high
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In a dovish step, the central bank dropped a reference to further rate "increases", saying instead that "further tightening" would be needed, suggesting that just one more hike might be enough. Rates have already gone up by a whopping 350 basis points since last May, easily the most aggressive tightening campaign by the central bank in modern history. Speculation was rife that the central bank could temper the forward guidance given recent softer data with unemployment rising, economic growth disappointing and wages not climbing as fast as feared. Gareth Aird, economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, sees a risk of the RBA could pause in April. "The reference to assessing 'when' means that the RBA Board has not yet made their mind up around increasing the cash rate in April," Aird said.

☆ Australia c.bank raises rates to more than decade high, tempers hawkishness
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Wrapping up its March policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said wages growth was still consistent with the inflation target and recent data suggested a lower risk of a cycle in which prices and wages chase one another. In a dovish step, the central bank changed a reference to further rate "increases", saying instead that "further tightening" would be needed, suggesting that it might be nearing the end of its hike cycle. This was the tenth increase since last May, lifting rates by a total of 350 basis points, easily the most aggressive tightening campaign by the central bank in modern history. Markets reacted by pushing the local dollar down 0.3% to $0.6714 while three-year government bond yields slumped 10 basis points to 3.37% . Australia's economy grew at its weakest pace in a year last quarter, with a quarterly growth of just 0.5%.

☆ Asian stocks rally sputters as China pulls back, higher U.S. yields weigh
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. futures erased earlier gains, with the S&P 500 stock futures falling 0.5% and Nasdaq futures down 0.7%. Tesla shares (TSLA.O) slumped 5.5% in after-hour trading, after the Tesla Investor Day failed to excite investors. On Thursday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hit a fresh four-month high of 4.0160%, after hitting 4% overnight. In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar index, measuring the greenback's value against a basket of major peers, gained 0.2% to 104.6. Oil prices were largely steady on Thursday, having risen by 1% the previous day due to optimism over China's recovery.

[1/3] Students walk past stalls during the orientation week at The University of Sydney, in Camperdown, Australia February 15, 2023. 'BIG RUSH'The shortage has meanwhile jumpstarted one of the few subsets of Australian residential property, the student accommodation sector, that languished during COVID. Before 2020, Chinese students accounted for about 40% of the A$40 billion ($27 billion) Australia made educating foreigners annually. But China's reopening has raised the issue about the availability of beds in a "welcome sign" for investors, said Brad Williams, managing director of AMP Capital's diversified infrastructure trust, Australia's third-largest owner of purpose-built student accommodation. Tomas Johnsson, CEO of UniLodge Australia, the country's biggest operator of purpose-built student accommodation, said some developers were even paying more to speed up construction.

☆ Asian markets breathe sigh of relief amid Ueda hearing
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] The Japanese government's nominee for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda attends a hearing session at the lower house of the parliament in Tokyo, Japan, February 24, 2023. Ueda's confirmation hearing in the lower house comes as markets renew their attack on YCC, taking bets on a near-term interest rate rise. Japan's five-year government bond yield fell a little to 0.235%, from the previous close of 0.240%. The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bonds eased as far as 3.8590%, compared with the previous close of 3.8810%. The two-year bond yield was hovering at 4.6810%, compared with the previous close of 4.6930%.

[1/3] A man wearing a protective mask is seen inside the Shanghai Stock Exchange building, as the country is hit by a new coronavirus outbreak, at the Pudong financial district in Shanghai, China, February 28, 2020. REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoNEW YORK/SINGAPORE, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Many large money managers are steering clear of Chinese assets, missing out on the nation's post-COVID stock market rally in the latest example of strategic concerns trumping juicy returns. "For our investors who might have that concern, there are plenty of other opportunities away from China." The concern flagged by some is whether this is part of a structural downgrade for Chinese assets, said Will Malcolm, a Singapore-based portfolio manager at Aviva Investors. That could attract cash in a hurry, but the behaviour of large investors so far suggests that a large sentiment shift will be needed.

☆ Australia advertises job on central bank's policy-setting board
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Australia's government is advertising a job on the policy-setting board of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the first time the powerful position has been thrown open to all comers amid a push for more diversity at the central bank. "The Reserve Bank of Australia is committed to creating a diverse and inclusive workplace, and the Government is committed to ensuring that Australia's institutions appropriately reflect the diversity of our community," said the ad on Australian Public Service. The Reserve Bank Board comprises nine members, with three ex officio members – the Governor, the Deputy Governor and the Secretary to the Treasury – and six non-executive members, who are appointed by the Treasurer. Australian Treasurer Chalmers said he would receive the RBA review on March 31 and would make a decision towards mid-year about whether to extend Governor Philip Lowe's term by another three years. The review, announced by Chalmers in July, is assessing issues such as how the RBA communicates with the public and which inflation targets to follow.

☆ Nvidia results show its growing lead in AI chip race
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Chavi Mehta | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, shows the Drive Pegasus robotaxi AI computer at his keynote address at CES in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S. January 7, 2018. AI has emerged as a bright spot for investments in the tech industry, whose slowing growth has led to widespread layoffs and a cutback on experimental bets. SPECIALIZED CHIPSGraphics processing units are designed to handle the specific kind of math involved in AI computing very efficiently, while generic central processing units (CPUs) from Intel can handle a broader range of computing tasks with less efficiency. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O), whose shares also rose after Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, is the second-biggest player in the GPU industry, with a market share of roughly 20%. Nvidia's strength in the AI industry has also attracted the attention of venture capitalists and startups, which are investing billions of dollars and promising improvements such as lower electricity consumption.

☆ Australia's central bank abandoned pause option for Feb rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank, startled by the risk that inflation could prove stickier than previously thought, abandoned all thought of pausing at its February policy meeting and signalled more rate hikes would be needed in the months ahead. Minutes of the Feb. 7 policy meeting out on Tuesday showed the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Board only discussed two options - hiking by 50 basis points or 25 bps. A pattern of upward surprises on inflation and wages had argued for the larger move, the minutes showed. In particular, underlying inflation surprised to the upside in the December quarter. The RBA expects wage growth to top 4.2% by the end of this year.

☆ China Fudan University team apologises after ChatGPT-style platform crashes hours after launch
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Eduardo Baptista | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING, Feb 21 (Reuters) - A team from China's Fudan University apologised on Tuesday after a ChatGPT-like chatbot platform they developed crashed hours after it launched to the public, due to a sudden surge of traffic. The team's announcement on Monday of the platform they called MOSS instantly went viral on Chinese social media, generating tens of millions of hits on China's Twitter-like Weibo. State media described it as the first Chinese rival to OpenAI's hit ChatGPT platform. While the Fudan University team had on Monday initially described MOSS as a conversational language model like ChatGPT, on Tuesday they played down the comparison, saying they had much to improve. "MOSS is still a very immature model, it is still has a long way to go before reaching ChatGPT.

☆ Analysis: Why China's reopening isn't inflationary
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

However, economists see no challenge to global inflation, pointing instead to Chinese President Xi Jinping's new blueprint for self-sufficiency, broader prosperity and a socialist ideology as checks on big-ticket shopping. The slack in China's labour markets and Beijing's growth priorities will also take the edge off inflation, they say. "I don't think China's recovery or the reopening will cause any significant global inflation," said Chi Lo, senior market strategist for Asia Pacific at BNP Paribas Asset Management. BNP's portfolio managers are positioning for China's rebound to boost regional tourism, but not export price rises for manufactured goods. "I'm very much of the view that (China's reopening) will be positive for the world in terms of either not being too inflationary, but more widely having deflation in some key new goods and services," Westpac senior economist Elliot Clarke said.

☆ Australian central bank governor warns against failing to contain inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SYDNEY, Feb 15 (Reuters) - The head of Australia's central bank on Wednesday warned of dire consequences of not containing inflation, which is running at three-decade highs. Appearing before members of parliament, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said one risk was that the bank might not have done enough on interest rates. "Raising interest rates has always been unpopular ... but our job is to make sure inflation comes down and hopefully preserve the gains of employment that we have made." It's corrosive, it hurts people, it damages income inequality and it if stays high it leads to higher interest rates and more unemployment." Since the central bank began raising interest rates last year, its policy rate has already risen 325 basis points to a decade high of 3.35%.

☆ Asian Shares track Wall Street's inflation optimism, yen recoups losses
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 1.2%, while the Nasdaq (.IXIC) rallied 1.5% and Dow Jones (.DJI) was up 1.1%. Treasuries rallied a little, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year government bonds easing 2 basis points to 3.6940%. The two-year bond yields also eased from their three-month highs to hover at 4.5090%, compared with the previous close of 4.5340%. It weakened 0.2% against the Japanese yen to 132.13 yen, after gaining 0.8% the previous day. On Tuesday, the Japanese government is expected to name academic Kazuo Ueda as its pick to become next central bank governor.

☆ Australia's top central banker to face lawmaker ire over rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Australia's top central banker will face a grilling at parliamentary hearings this week after surprising many with a hawkish turn on interest rate hikes that are adding to already punishing cost of living pressures. After the latest rise last week, the central bank compounded the blow by flagging yet further increases would be needed to contain inflation, which is running at three-decade highs. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers highlighted the broader issue in the review about how the bank communicates the context for its decisions on Sunday. Chalmers said he would receive the review on March 31, and the government would make a decision about Lowe's re-appointment towards mid-year. The review, announced by Chalmers in July, is assessing issues such as how the RBA communicates with the public and which inflation targets to follow.

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