Investors deliberating whether the stock rally can continue in the second half of 2024 should keep an eye on the 200-day moving average, according to Stephen Suttmeier, technical research strategist at Bank of America Securities.
The indicator, which is used by chart analysts to determine long-term trends, has been positive during the first six months of the year — as the S & P 500 surged 15% to record levels.
The broad market index did not have a single daily close below its 200-day moving average in the first half.
However, if the S & P 500 falls below its 200-day moving average in the second half of 2024, that will mean weaker returns, the technician said.
"[This] scenario shows average and median returns of 0.60% (SPX 5490) and 2.43% (SPX 5590), respectively," the technician said.
Persons:
Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, Stocks, Donald Trump
Organizations:
Bank of America Securities, U.S, Federal Reserve