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☆ Fed's new instant payments system to launch in July
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

March 15 (Reuters) - The U.S. central bank will launch its "FedNow" instant payment service in July, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday, with certification and testing for early adopters starting in the first week of April. Announced in 2019, FedNow will allow banks to instantly transfer payments across the financial system. Reporting by Ann Saphir, Editing by Rosalba O'BrienOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed rate hike campaign in question as bank stocks swoon
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Financial markets now expect interest-rate cuts as soon as May or June, with the Fed policy rate seen ending the year a full percentage point lower than it is now. Trader bets and actual Fed policy decisions often diverge, and analysts caution against taking the market view as gospel. Interest rates should pause until the degree of demand destruction can be evaluated.”WILD SWINGSExpectations for the U.S. central bank’s next move have swung wildly in recent days. Now, with the banking crisis seemingly rekindled and banking stocks again under pressure, traders are looking for one more Fed rate hike if that, and then a string of interest-rate reductions, with the rate ending this year in a 3.5%-3.75% range. “It’s conceivable that we’ve seen the peak in market interest rates this cycle,” said John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management.

☆ Fed seen delivering quarter-point rate hike next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

March 14 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is seen raising its benchmark rate a quarter of a percentage point next week and delivering another hike of the same size in May, as a government report showed U.S. consumer prices rose solidly in February. Prices of fed funds futures reflected about a 90% chance of a quarter-percentage point rate hike this month with about a 10% chance seen of no change. Until late last week financial markets had been pricing in a half-point rate hike at the Fed's March 21-22 meeting to stem high inflation. Rate futures contracts pricing now points to the Fed reversing course with rate cuts starting as early as June, with rates seen ending this year below where they are now. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrew Heavens and Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

By May the benchmark rate is seen rising further to a range of 5.00%-5.25%. Until late last week financial markets had been pricing in a bigger half-point rate hike to stem persistently high inflation. Meanwhile the Labor Department's inflation report showed a 6% rise in the consumer price index last month from a year earlier. "The recent string of regional bank failures likely closed the door on a 50 (basis point) rate hike, but today's data suggests that the Fed is going to remain on-track for a 25 (basis point) hike on March 22." Fed policymakers will publish their own rate path expectations next week.

The U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6% in February as more workers entered the labor force, and wage gains slowed to 0.2% from 0.3% in January, the Labor Department's report showed. "This report screams soft landing and looks to be a pretty good one for the Fed," said Omair Sharif of Inflation Insights. After the report, futures tied to the Fed policy rate pointed to a quarter-point rate hike as the most likely outcome of the central bank's meeting this month. Traders also slashed expectations for the Fed to ultimately raise rates any higher than 5.5%. "However, the February CPI report will also weigh heavily in the Fed’s deliberations of whether to raise rates 25bps or 50bps.

"We have two or three more very important data releases to analyze before the time of the FOMC meeting," Powell told the Senate Banking panel Tuesday. "Powell didn’t open the door to a 50-basis-point rate hike without intending to follow through with that outcome at the March FOMC meeting," Duy said. The Fed's rate hikes are designed to slow demand and spending by consumers and businesses. The survey will next publish on the Friday before the Fed meeting, and could again prove key. If inflation continues, Powell said Tuesday, at some point both individuals and businesses "will come to expect high inflation, and that will make it more self-perpetuating."

"We have not made any decision," Powell said, but will be looking closely at upcoming jobs data on Friday and inflation data next week in deciding whether rate hikes need to shift back into a higher gear. Recent inflation data was worse than expected, and revisions to prior months showed the Fed had made less progress than expected in returning inflation to its 2% target from current levels that are more than double that. At the margins, however, some of the data did move in ways consistent with the softer job market the Fed hopes will develop. In their last set of projections, in mid-December, the median estimate of the high point of the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate was between 5.00% and 5.25%, versus the current 4.50%-4.75% range. Reporting by Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir and Lindsay Dunsmuir; Writing by Dan Burns and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ US businesses see moderation in inflation ahead, Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

But after some softening late last year, the economy has since rebounded and price increases have reaccelerated. But there were also hopeful signs, with supply chains easing further and price increases moderating in many of the Fed's regional districts. "Looking ahead, contacts expected price increases to continue to moderate over the year," the report said. That said, inflation remained "widespread" according to the survey, and in the labor market "finding workers with desired skills or experience remained challenging." Fed policymakers have made clear that there would have to be some easing in labor market shortages in order for wage pressures to ease.

☆ Odds of 50-basis-point Fed rate hike rise after Powell testimony
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 7 (Reuters) - Traders of futures tied to the Federal Reserve's policy rate were pricing in a half-percentage-point hike in interest rates at the U.S. central bank's March 21-22 policy meeting after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that continued strong inflation data could require tougher measures. That was up from the 30% chance seen before Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Futures briefly showed more than a 50% chance of a 50-basis-point (bp) hike immediately after Powell's remarks. The futures contracts pricing also points to firming expectations for the policy rate to rise to a 5.25%-5.50% range by June. Powell's testimony on Tuesday marked a stark acknowledgement that a "disinflationary process" he spoke of repeatedly in a Feb. 1 news conference may not be so smooth.

☆ Fed's Daly: tighter policy, for a longer time, 'likely' needed
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The acceleration of inflation in January "suggests that the disinflation momentum we need is far from certain," Daly said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Princeton Economic Policy Symposium. "In order to put this episode of high inflation behind us, further policy tightening, maintained for a longer time, will likely be necessary." Coming from Daly, whose views are typically in line with Fed leadership, the remarks may add to expectations that Fed policymakers will lift rates higher in coming months than the 5.1% that most of them had penciled in December. Fed policymakers will publish fresh projections for policy and the economy at the close of their upcoming March 21-22 meeting. Daly did not use her prepared remarks to offer a view on how big March's rate hike ought to be, or exactly how high rates should go.

☆ Fed's Barkin says he could see rates at 5.5%-5.75%
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

PALO ALTO, California, March 3 (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that he could envision a scenario where the central bank pushes the U.S. benchmark policy interest rate to the 5.5%-5.75% range that some in financial markets are now betting it will. Barkin said it's "entirely possible" that inflation cools faster than he expects, which would imply a shallower rate path. "But I think it's entirely possible that it persists, which would require us to do more," he added. By this time next year, Barkin said, he does not expect the Fed to have started any rate cuts. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Leslie Adler and Alistair BellOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed's Barkin says he doesn't see case for a rate pause now
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

PALO ALTO, California, March 3 (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that he does not understand the case for pausing interest rates now, although delivering rate increases in smaller increments means that if the Fed does end up going too far it won't have gone much too far. Rates are currently restrictive, meaning that they are slowing the economy, but the Fed still needs to "feel" its way to a level of rates that is high enough to bring inflation back down, Barkin said at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed's Barkin calls for deliberate rate hikes to fight 'exhausting' inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Policymakers have forecast "additional rate increases" and have been clear "we don’t anticipate rate cuts this year," he said. Inflation by the Fed's preferred year-over-year gauge was 5.4% in January, an increase from the 5.3% pace in December. The Fed's target is 2% inflation. Barkin said he is not sure that the strength in spending that bolstered inflation is sustainable. That's putting some upward pressure on inflation, he said, as workers ask for more pay.

"It could be that progress has stalled, or it is possible that the numbers released last month were a blip," he said. The current policy rate is set in a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. Bostic also said he was ready to raise rates higher if upcoming data did not show inflation "clearly" heading back towards the central bank's 2% target from its January level of about 5.4%. But he also felt the impact of Fed rate increases so far may only be getting started, a reason to be careful in deciding on further rate hikes lest the central bank overstep. Fed rate increases "should bite through the spring ...

☆ Fed's Waller: if data stays hot, policy rate should go above 5.1%-5.4%
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

At the time Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited recent economic data as evidence that a "disinflationary" trend had begun, suggesting the policy rate was nearing a restrictive-enough level. The Fed targets a 2% inflation rate. Fed policymakers will publish revised projections for the rate path at their upcoming meeting on March 20-21. Traders have also been pricing in a more aggressive policy path, with futures contracts tied to the Fed's policy path now reflecting expectations for another full percentage point of rate hikes by September, bringing the policy rate to a 5.5%-5.75% range. Waller signaled he was open to the possibility that the apparent recent stall in progress on inflation was a "bump" in an otherwise welcome trend downward.

March 2 (Reuters) - A virtual event with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller was canceled on Thursday after the Zoom video conference was "hijacked" by a participant who displayed pornographic images. It is an incident we deeply regret," said Brent Tjarks, executive director of the Mid-Size Bank Coalition of America (MBCA), which hosted the event via a Zoom link. "We have been deeply upset to hear about these types of incidents, and Zoom strongly condemns such behavior," Zoom spokesman Matt Nagel said in a statement. The service has come under fire over privacy and security issues, including incidents of "Zoom bombing" in which uninvited users entered and disrupted meetings. The Fed said the event, which was to feature a speech by Waller as well as a question-and-answer session, was canceled due to "technical difficulties."

Kashkari, a voter on Fed rate policy this year, said he had not made a final call yet on a new projection for the target federal funds rate. But "at this point...I lean towards continuing to raise further," beyond the 5.4% level that he previously thought would be adequate to lower inflation. Fed officials will submit new projections at a meeting in three weeks, and analysts and investors expect the median rate seen by officials for the end of 2023 will move perhaps a quarter point higher than the 5.1% anticipated as of December. The federal funds rate is currently set in a range from 4.5% to 4.75% after a rapid set of rate increases last year lifted it from a near zero level. The jump in inflation in January, however, has not prompted a universal call to respond.

☆ Fed seen likely to raise policy rate above 5.5% by September
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

March 1 (Reuters) - Traders of futures tied to the Federal Reserve's policy rate added to bets on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank will raise its benchmark rate to a range of 5.5%-5.75% by September, as a widely-followed report signaled some upward price pressures in manufacturing last month. The rate-futures contracts currently are pricing in a high likelihood of interest-rate hikes at each of the Fed's next several meetings, and a receding chance of any rate cuts later this year. The fed funds rate is currently 4.5%.4.75%Reporting by Ann SaphirOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed should not rely too much on market reaction to guide policy, Goolsbee says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Feb 28 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve must supplement traditional government data and readings from financial markets with real-time, on-the-ground observations of economic conditions if it is to make good policy, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday. "It is a danger and a mistake for policymakers to rely too heavily on market reactions" like stock and bond market gyrations that "tell us which way the markets want the Fed to move," he said. That's slightly higher than where Fed policymakers in December signaled they would need to take the policy rate. Fed policymakers will provide updated projections on the rate path and economy at the end of their March 21-22 meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier this month said one of the U.S. central bank's most important resources is the "haul" of information on local economies and communities gleaned from regional Fed banks like the one that Goolsbee now heads.

☆ Analysis: With record diversity on their boards, Fed bank chiefs see lower chances of policy error
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Fed bank directors generally stay out of the limelight, but many U.S. central bankers view them as a critical resource. "I think the probabilities are far higher of achieving that gentle transition, that smoother transition," San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Reuters in an interview. This year, of the 108 spots on the 12 Fed bank boards, 44% are filled by women, and 41% by people of color, a review of the data shows. Still, a majority of the Fed's economists are white men, as are its top two monetary policymakers: Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. Hispanics and Latinos, Menendez notes, are a fast-growing segment of the population but are underrepresented at the Fed at all levels, including on Fed bank boards.

"It's going to take more effort on the part of the Fed to get inflation on that sustainable downward path to 2%." She is among the minority of Fed policymakers who back in December thought they would need to lift the policy rate to 5.4% to stop inflation, while most believed 5.1% would suffice. Similarly none of the other Fed policymakers who spoke Friday, including the normally hawkish Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, focused on the fresh inflation data to argue for a more muscular Fed response, though all continued to signal more rate hikes would be required. And traders largely erased what had been consistent bets on Fed rate cuts towards the end of the year, pricing in a year-end Fed policy rate of 5.26%. "It looks like the Fed will have to be more aggressive," said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas.

☆ Fed is 'absolutely' committed to 2% inflation target, Williams says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

Feb 22 (Reuters) - New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams on Wednesday said the U.S. central bank is "absolutely" committed to bringing inflation back down to its 2% target over the next few years, by bringing demand down in line with constrained supply. "Our job is clear: our job is to make sure we restore price stability, which is truly the foundation of a strong economy," Williams said at a conference hosted at the bank. He noted that with global supply chains still disrupted, goods prices may not continue their recent decline, and inflation in core services excluding housing continues to be far too high, driven by too much demand relative to supply. Reporting by Ann Saphir Editing by Chris ReeseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The Fed's policy rate is currently in a 4.50%-4.75% target range. By the Fed's preferred measure, inflation is still running at a 5.0% annual rate. Harker last week flagged the prospect of rate cuts in 2024 should inflation continue to ease. However, following the CPI release on Tuesday, traders of interest rate futures now see the Fed raising borrowing costs three more times, bringing the policy rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range by July, if not June. "My own view is that, given the risks, we shouldn't lock in on a peak interest rate or a precise path of rates," she said.

☆ Fed must be ready to hike rates for longer than now expected, Logan says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed last year lifted interest rates further and faster than any time since the 1980s to fight inflation that, by the central bank's preferred measure, has run for two years at about triple its 2% target. Key to that, Logan said on Tuesday, will be substantial further slowing in wage growth and better "balance" in what is now an "incredibly strong" labor market. Logan also said she will need to see "convincing" signs that inflation is dropping sustainably and in a timely manner toward the 2% target. There are also risks, she said, of going too far and weakening the labor market more than necessary in pursuit of slowing inflation. "My own view is that, given the risks, we shouldn't lock in on a peak interest rate or a precise path of rates," she said.

☆ Fed's Waller says cryptocurrency buyers could lose their entire investments
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Feb 10 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Friday had a pair of warnings for those involved in cryptocurrency assets, telling buyers they could lose their investments, and banks that they must guard against bad actors and risks to the financial system. U.S. regulators including the U.S. central bank have told banks they need to be more careful about fraud risk. "If people want to hold such an asset, then go for it," Waller said. "However, if you buy crypto assets and the price goes to zero at some point, please don't be surprised and don't expect taxpayers to socialize your losses." Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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