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☆ The US economy is headed into a corporate bankruptcy cycle that will spike unemployment, veteran forecaster says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Booth predicted that the number of large bankruptcies would climb to 25 by the end of June, surpassing the peak of large corporate bankruptcy filings during the pandemic. "When you have these large bankruptcies, liquidations, and what have you, you do have a loss of income. Meanwhile, the economy has lost around a million full time workers over the last 12 months, Booth noted. 10% of small business owners said labor costs were their "single most important problem," according to the latest Small Business Optimism Index. Booth has previously argued that the economy is already in a recession due to weakness in the labor market.

Persons: —, Danielle DiMartino Booth, bankrupcies, Booth, David Lin, Gray Organizations: Service, QI, P, Business, Companies, Challenger Locations: America

☆ Tesla is the biggest stock bubble in history and shares are headed to $15, short seller says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Lekander predicted the EV maker's stock would plunge to $15 a share, implying a 91% decline. Tesla stock represents one of the greatest bubbles in history, he said. Earnings are falling off a cliff," he added, estimating Tesla's earnings could fall as much as 50% this year. Lekander, who has been shorting Tesla stock since 2020, echoed other Tesla bears, who have criticized the stock's lofty valuation and predicted a coming correction. AdvertisementIf the company reports losses for two quarters in a row, the stock could easily see losses in the double-digits, Lekander predicted.

Persons: Lekander, —, Tesla Organizations: EV, Service, Energy, Yahoo Finance

☆ Stocks are in a sweet spot but bears still fear a bubble is near bursting. Here's what 5 forecasters are saying about a potential crash.
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Here's what five forecasters have to say about the latest rally — and why they think the stock market is headed for a fall. In 2009, he wrote a book predicting a stock market crash and ensuing economic depression, which he said could last for 10 years or more. The research firm is predicting the S&P 500 could see a steep correction following a rally to 6,500. Yet, that could end up being an excellent opportunity for investors who are diversified in other areas of the market, Bernstein said. AdvertisementTypically, there are eight warning signs of a market bubble forming, and six of them have already flashed, the bank said.

Persons: Stocks, —, haven't, Harry Dent Stocks, Harry Dent, Dent, John Higgins, Higgins, John Hussman, Hussman, Richard Bernstein, Bernstein Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Apple, Nvidia, Fox Business Network, Stocks, Capital Economics, John Hussman Elite, UBS

☆ Why the Fed's rate-cutting agenda could spark a recession, according to top economist Mohamed El Erian
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewThe Federal Reserve's path of rate cuts could be what ends up causing a US recession, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. Elevated interest rates could cut into economic activity and employment, Powell said at a press conference on Wednesday. At this point, the economy faces a bigger risk of recession than rampant inflation, El-Erian suggested. The recession outlook remains mixed, given the cocktail of tight financial conditions and resilient economic growth so far. According to New York Fed economists, the US has a 52% chance of slipping into recession by May next year.

Persons: —, Mohamed El, Erian, Powell Organizations: Service, Business, Fed, Yahoo Finance, San Francisco Fed, New York Fed, Consumer Locations: El

☆ Why a celebrity broker says some parts of the US could see a 10% home-price correction
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Home prices in the US could fall as much as 10% in some markets, according to Kirsten Jordan. The "Million Dollar Listing" agent said the booming demand seen in some markets during the pandemic is fading. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: Kirsten Jordan, —, Jordan Organizations: Service, Fox Business Network, Business

☆ Recession isn't happening as the US economy is the most dynamic it's been in history, 'The Big Short' investor Steve Eisman says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

A recession isn't going to materialize for the US economy, Steve Eisman said. "The Big Short" investor thinks the US economy is on solid footing. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementDon't count on a recession striking anytime soon as the US economy looks to be the most dynamic it's ever been, according to "The Big Short" investor Steve Eisman. The strength of the economy is evidenced by key investment themes driving the market, Eisman said, which typically doesn't happen when the economy is doing poorly.

Persons: Steve Eisman, —, Eisman Organizations: Service, Business

☆ Longtime Tesla investor says Elon Musk's proposed $56 billion pay package is 'outrageous' amid poor stock performance
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Elon Musk's $56 billion pay package is "outrageous," according to longtime Tesla investor Ross Gerber. Investors are voting on Musk's pay package for the second time on Thursday, after previously approving it in 2018. "The reason the pay package was voted down is because the board of directors at Tesla is an absent board. I just think that they're just creating more problems, and Elon and his board should work on a fair pay package," Gerber said. I'd love to go to my own company and negotiate my own pay package with myself."

Persons: Elon Musk's, Ross Gerber, Gerber, Musk's, Musk, They're, it's, Tesla, Elon Organizations: Service, Business, CNBC, Elon, Tesla's Texas Locations: Delaware, Texas, Tesla's

☆ 'Clear path to a soft landing': Here's what Wall Street sees for Fed rate cuts after May inflation came in cool
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors cheered a soft May inflation report, which could pave the way for Fed easing this year. Rate cuts in September are "overwhelmingly likely," one economist said. AdvertisementSome Wall Street analysts predict the Fed's first cut could come as soon as July, though most see a rate cut in September as the most likely scenario. "But rate cuts starting by September should now be cemented as overwhelmingly likely." Investors are waiting for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to speak later Wednesday afternoon, which should give markets more guidance on the path of rate cuts.

Persons: —, Skyler Weinand, Regan Capital, Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's, Ryan Severino, BGO, Jerome Powell, Weinand, David Russell Organizations: Service, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ Stock market today: US stocks close at record highs after encouraging May inflation and Fed commentary
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks rose to fresh records Wednesday as traders took in cool inflation and Fed comments. AdvertisementUS stocks rose on Wednesday as investors took in cool inflation data and the Federal Reserve's latest guidance on rate cuts, helping the S&P 500 to another record close. The 10-year Treasury fell seven basis points to 6.33%, rising from steeper losses earlier in the day after the central bank updated its outlook to include fewer rate cuts than previously expected. FOMC members said they didn't believe it was "appropriate" to cut rates until they had gained more confidence inflation is trending back to 2%. Fed fund futures show that investors see a 62% chance the Fed will cut rates three times or more by year-end, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Persons: —, FOMC, Powell, Bill Adams Organizations: Service, Federal, Treasury, Fed, Comerica Bank Locations: April's

☆ Home prices will go down this summer as sellers can't postpone listing any longer, Redfin CEO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Home prices will fall this summer as owners cave to selling pressure, according to Redfin's CEO. Homes in Florida and Texas are already beginning to see "major price cuts," the firm said. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementHouse prices will drop this summer as homeowners trying to wait out high mortgage rates are realizing they can't postpone moving any longer, according to Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman. Homes in key metros, like Florida and Texas, are already seeing "major price cuts," Kelman said.

Persons: —, Glenn Kelman, Kelman, Redfin Organizations: Homes, Service, Business Locations: Florida, Texas

☆ Mega-cap stocks are overvalued and risk a big correction, according to a CIO. Here's why that presents a 'monstrous' buying opportunity.
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The stock market's leaders are overvalued and could suffer a big correction, RBA's Richard Bernstein said. The RBA chief investment officer pointed to a discrepancy between the debt and equity markets, which could hint at a soon-to-come market correction. But, only a narrow group of stocks are dominating the equity market, which implies profits aren't expanding for most companies. While large-cap stocks tanked during the lost decade of the 2000s, small-cap, energy, and emerging market stocks did exceedingly well. In a previous note, he said the stock market's shifting leadership from the most-hyped names to underloved equities presents once-in-a-generation opportunity for investors.

Persons: RBA's Richard Bernstein, —, Richard Bernstein, Bernstein, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research Bernstein, Russell Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Apollo, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Research, Nasdaq

☆ Buying a home is probably never getting cheaper as rates aren't coming down and pandemic migration trends persist, 'Shark Tank' investor Kevin O'Leary says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The "Shark Tank" investor predicted high mortgage rates were here to stay. Pandemic migration trends also aren't reversing, which has kept home prices elevated. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe housing market probably isn't ever going to get any cheaper, according to "Shark Tank" star Kevin O'Leary. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: Kevin O'Leary, —, that's Organizations: Service, Fox Business, Business

☆ There's a stock market crash coming in 2025 as the 'bubble of all bubbles' bursts, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US is poised to see an epic stock market crash next year, according to Harry Dent. AdvertisementThe stock market could be in for a steep correction, resulting in a crash even worse than what investors saw during the Great Financial Crisis, according to economist Harry Dent. "Hero" stocks, like chipmaker Nvidia, could drop as much as 98%, he said, implying a multi-trillion market crash. "We've got to see a crash of about 40% to say, okay, the bubble's finally let off the steam. "This is really the second tech bubble version," he added, referring to the dot-com bubble in the 2000s."

Persons: Harry Dent, —, Dent, We've, " Dent Organizations: Service, Harvard Business School, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Fox Business Network

☆ A shortage of young men in the workforce could weigh on housing, Social Security, and growth for years to come
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewAmerica's job market is mysteriously short of young men. Zack Mabel, a research professor at Georgetown University, theorizes that falling labor force participation among young men could impact the economy for at least several decades. AdvertisementStraining the economyThe economy appears to already be feeling the decline in male workforce participation. Besides the years following the pandemic, US workforce participation rate hasn't been that low since the 70s, World Bank data shows. There's no clear answer for how to get young men back into the workforce.

Persons: —, Carol Graham, That's, Graham, They're, Zack Mabel, Mabel, Meredith Whitney, Whitney, they're Organizations: Service, Brookings Institute, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, Georgetown University, World Bank, Bank, Wall, Brookings, Government, Social Locations: Brookings

☆ 3 things homebuyers should do to hack the unaffordable housing market, according to Fannie Mae's chief economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewThe housing market is historically unaffordable, but according to Fannie Mae's lead economist, prospective buyers can do a few things to make things to get a leg up. Have a good credit scoreMortgage rates are elevated, and having a poor credit score makes borrowing costs even steeper, Duncan said. Buyers who shop around tend to score better deals and more affordable rates, Duncan said. AdvertisementPeople betting that mortgage rates or home prices will come down soon are taking a gamble. Some homebuyers can afford to speculate on the market, but most first-time homebuyers cannot, Duncan noted.

Persons: —, Fannie Mae's, Doug Duncan, Duncan, That's, you'll, Charles Schwab Organizations: Service, Business, Yahoo Finance, National Association of Realtors Locations: today's

☆ Nvidia stock has another 24% to climb as it looks poised to dominate the computing market for the next decade, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The bank reiterated its $1,500 price target this week, implying another 24% upside for the stock. Nvidia will continue to dominate the computing market in the next upgrade cycle, the bank said. BofA strategists have a 12-month price target of $1,500 a share, implying another 24% upside from where the stock was trading late Thursday morning. Vivek Arya, a senior semiconductor analyst for the bank, added that he believed the stock would dominate the computer market for the next decade. Nvidia stock undergo a 10-for-1 split on Friday, a move that could be a catalyst for further gains as a lower share price helps draw more attention from retail investors.

Persons: —, Jensen Huang, Vivek Arya, Ayra Organizations: Bank of America, Nvidia, Service, AMD, Intel, Yahoo Finance, Wall Street, Apple

☆ Fed policy hasn't cooled the labor market and a 'serious consumer recession' could strike if services jobs tumble, real estate billionaire Barry Sternlicht says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe Federal Reserve's aggressive inflation fight hasn't worked to cool off the job market, and the central bank risks sparking a "serious" downturn for US consumers, according to real estate billionaire investor Barry Sternlicht. Sternlicht said high interest rates haven't loosened the job market even in the most rate-sensitive areas like construction. Related storiesJobs in the healthcare industry have climbed 1.4 million since March 2022, the month the Fed first began raising interest rates. The Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer risks further weakening the job market. Other Wall Street forecasters have been warning of the risk of recession, especially as interest rates look poised to stay higher for longer.

Persons: —, hasn't, Barry Sternlicht, Sternlicht, Jerome Powell, He's Organizations: Service, Starwood Capital, Business, Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC, Challenger, New

☆ Elon Musk diverting Nvidia chips from Tesla to X shows the EV maker is not his priority, longtime Tesla investor Ross Gerber says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

CNBC reported that Elon Musk diverted Nvidia chips bound for Tesla to X and xAI. Longtime Tesla investor Ross Gerber said the move shows the EV maker is not Musk's priority. AdvertisementTesla isn't at the top of Elon Musk's list of priorities, according to longtime investor Ross Gerber. Musk confirmed the decision in a recent post on X, adding that Tesla "had no place to send the Nvidia chips to turn them on." As an investor, I've done what I've needed to do and I've had to sell a lot of my Tesla stock.

Persons: Elon, Tesla, Ross Gerber, —, Gerber, Musk, I've, Ron Baron Organizations: CNBC, Nvidia, Service, Elon, Twitter, Tesla, Musk's, EV Locations: Tesla, Texas, Austin

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rise as weak private payroll data boosts optimism for rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks rose on Wednesday as investors took in weaker jobs data. Investors are solidly betting on at two rate cuts in 2024, according to the CME FedWatch tool. AdvertisementUS stocks ticked higher on Wednesday as traders took in soft jobs data and revved up their hopes for Fed rate cuts later this year. Meanwhile, annual wage growth remained level at 5% — both promising signs that the job market is coolingWeaker hiring trends are good news for the outlook for rate cuts. Investors are largely expecting the Fed to hold interest rates steady at its next policy meeting, but are still feeling bullish on rate cuts by the end of the year.

Persons: —, 1750,000 Organizations: Service, Treasury, ADP, Bank of America, Investors

☆ 3 signs the US economy is nearing a recession have flashed in the last week, SocGen says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe US economy is edging precariously close to a recession, and it's flashed a handful of warning signs in just the last week that suggest a downturn is on the horizon, according to Société Générale. New manufacturing orders contracted in May, and overall manufacturing activity contracted for the 18th time over the last 18 months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Advertisement"Although many may dismiss the importance of the manufacturing sector for the overall economy, it is undeniable that overall GDP ebbs and flows closely with it. SocGen isn't alone in sounding the alarm, and other economists say that high interest rates are finally working their way through the economy and depressing growth. New York Fed economists see a 52% chance the economy could slip into recession within the next 12 months.

Persons: —, it's, Société, Albert Edwards, " Edwards, Edwards, That's, SocGen isn't Organizations: Service, Business, Fed, Institute for Supply Management, New York Fed

☆ Stock market today: S&P 500 closes at record high as rate cut hopes rise and Nvidia surges
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks jumped on Monday as traders took in an improved outlook for Fed rate cuts. Investors see two rate cuts in 2024, per the CME FedWatch tool. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Expectations for rate cuts have been bolstered by a cooling labor market, which gives the Federal Reserve room to losen monetary policy. "Investors are viewing slow economic data as 'goldilocks,' with growing hope for Fed rate cuts," Mark Hackett, Nationwide's chief of investment research said in a statement on Wednesday.

Persons: —, Nvidia's, Mark Hackett, Nationwide's Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Reserve, Apple, Microsoft, Bureau of Labor Statistics

☆ Home prices could drop for the next 6 months as inventory rises by the biggest margin since the financial crisis, investment strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Home prices could start falling as soon as the end of summer, one strategist predicts. That's due to a sharp rise in unsold homes, with inventory climbing 16% year-per-year in April. That's the highest increase in unsold inventory recorded since the Great Financial Crisis. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . That's according to Brian Nick, a senior investment strategist at Macro Institute, who's calling for a drop in home prices that could take place over the next three to six months.

Persons: —, homebuyers, Brian Nick, Nick Organizations: Service, Macro

☆ Brace for a 10% slide in the S&P 500 as stagflation makes the Fed unlikely to cut rates, Stifel says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is headed for a 10% decline over the next quarter, Stifel analysts warned. AdvertisementThe stock market is headed for a sell-off in the coming months that will see the S&P 500 drop 10%, according to Stifel strategists. When adjusted for inflation, the overall S&P 500 remains below its level at the end of 2021 — something that could be "emblematic of underlying problems" in the market, Stifel said. "We continue to forecast the S&P 500 corrects about -10% to ~4,750 before the end of 3Q 2024 from the recent peak," strategists said in a note on Tuesday. When the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 transitions out of a Secular Bull Market it historically enters a 'Secular Bear Market,' which is a much more treacherous period for investors."

Persons: —, Stifel, Stocks Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Secular

☆ The S&P 500 could climb 23% next year if Treasury yields fall and AI momentum stays strong, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Falling yields and continuing excitement for AI could boost the S&P 500 to 6,500, the firm said. "This expectation that AI hype will increase and that Treasury yields will fall underpins our long-standing forecast for the S&p 500 to hit 6,500 by end-2025." But narrow stock market rallies have the potential to last years, Rielly said, suggesting the stock market run-up could continue for now. Warnings of a market bubble have proliferated as the S&P 500 notched a series of record-highs this year. Capital Economics has also warned of a stock market correction akin to the 1929 and dot-com crashes, which could begin in early 2026.

Persons: That's, —, Reilly, that's, Rielly Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Treasury, Street, NVIDIA, Capital

☆ Home prices are falling at the fastest pace since 2022 as stubborn interest rates slash demand
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Home prices are dropping thanks to high mortgage rates weighing on demand. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up last week, hovering above 7%. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementHome prices are falling at the fastest pace in over a year, thanks to demand plunging amid stubbornly high mortgage rates, according to Redfin. That's the highest percentage of sellers that have slashed prices since November 2022, when the 30-year fixed mortgage rate spiked past 7% for the first time in more than 20 years.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Business

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