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Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 25 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts over the seven days ending on June 20. The combined position was 346 million barrels (12th percentile for all weeks since 2013) which was essentially unchanged from 350 million barrels on March 28 after the eruption of the U.S. regional banking crisis. Chartbook: Oil and gas positionsIn the most recent week, funds bought Brent (+16 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (+5 million) and European gas oil (+9 million) but sold U.S. gasoline (-2 million) and U.S. diesel (-4 million). The position in crude (268 million barrels, 8th percentile) is basically unchanged since late March and the position in middle distillates (22 million barrels, 29th percentile) is unchanged since early April. But economic growth is decelerating across North America, Europe and China, dampening expected consumption of oil.

Persons: John Kemp, Mark Potter Organizations: U.S, Brent, ICE, U.S . diesel, Funds, Saudi, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Saudi Arabia, distillates, OPEC, North America, Europe, China, U.S

With fewer and smaller hikes from the Fed and decelerating inflation, mortgage rates will likely continue to drop. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThe average 15-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.03% right now, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased significantly in 2022.

Persons: Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Consumer, Federal, Zillow Locations: Chevron

Mortgage rates are holding steady today and remain relatively low compared to where they were earlier this month. This is good news for mortgage borrowers, since it means less upward pressure on mortgage rates. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control.

Persons: Freddie Mac, it's, Fannie Mae, they'll Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, Sky, ARM Locations: Chevron

☆ Top tech execs get ready to meet Modi as China's economy falters
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Seema Mody | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi waves to supporters as he arrives at the Lotte New York Palace hotel in New York City, June 20, 2023. As China's economy falters, top U.S. corporate executives are making it a priority to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his state visit to the White House, including Thursday's dinner. The administration is going all out to give the prime minister a close-to-royal welcome," Frank Wisner, former U.S. ambassador to India, told CNBC. China is one of the agenda items when Modi meets with Biden and U.S. executives Thursday and Friday. With China's economy decelerating and political tensions high, corporate America has taken steps to diversify away from the country.

Persons: Narendra Modi, Tim Cook, Sundar Pichai, Satya Nadella, Raj Subramaniam, Frank Wisner, Tony Capuano, Cummins, Jennifer Rumsey, Safiya Ghori, Ahmad, Atomics, Antony Blinken, Xi Jinping, Modi, Biden, Wisner, Elon Musk Organizations: Indian, Lotte New, Lotte New York Palace, White, Apple, Microsoft, FedEx, White House, CNBC, Marriott, Electric, Hindustan Aeronautics, Atlantic Council, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, U.S, Modi, Tesla Locations: Lotte New York, New York City, India, New Delhi, U.S, Delhi, China, America

The 30-year rates have dipped slightly since last week, while 15-year mortgage rates have gone up a bit. A competitive market can keep mortgage rates high and homes expensive. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control.

Persons: Freddie Mac, Prices, Fannie Mae, they'll Organizations: Zillow, Federal Reserve, Fed, Mortgage, Association, Sky, ARM Locations: Chevron

☆ The Federal Reserve paused its interest-rate hikes after 10 consecutive increases
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The Federal Reserve announced it's pausing interest-rate hikes at its Wednesday meeting. This comes after 10 consecutive interest-rate increases in 15 months. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it's holding interest rates steady at its Wednesday meeting, putting a pause on the central bank's 10 consecutive increases in 15 months. "Without a meaningful downside surprise in both jobs and inflation, a final interest-rate hike remains in the cards for July." Following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank, credit conditions tightened, in part pushing the Fed to skip this month's rate hike amid a lending pullback.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Powell, Seema Shah, Shah, Thomas Simons, Simons, Marta Norton, Kathy Gramling, Gramling, Norton, there's, Price Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Market, Fed, Asset Management, Jefferies, Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Morningstar Wealth's America, EY, Consumer, Morningstar Wealth, Norton

☆ US consumer price increases slow; underlying inflation sticky
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

But food prices rose 0.2% after being unchanged for two consecutive months as fruits and vegetables, nonalcoholic beverages and other food products became more expensive. While the unemployment rate rose to a seven-month high of 3.7%, that was from a 53-year low of 3.4% in April. The so-called core CPI increased 0.4% in May, rising by the same margin for the third straight month. Beyond May, however, overall core inflation is expected to slow, driven by a moderation in rents and resumption in price declines for used cars and trucks. "We expect a more noticeable deceleration in core prices in the coming months," said Michael Pugliese, a senior economist with Wells Fargo in New York.

Persons: Kathy Bostjancic, Joe Biden, I've, Biden, nonfarm, Michael Pugliese, Wells, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, Nationwide, Reuters, Treasury, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, U.S, Ukraine

☆ The message top corporate CFOs are sending directly to Fed presidents isn't a bullish one
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The Fed remains focused on the labor market and cooling wage growth while raising unemployment as the key to bringing hot services inflation down. "I shared with him [a regional Fed president] that they should stop, not pause," said another CFO on the call. "The consumer is being smart," the CFO said, but the Fed focus on bringing unemployment up can break the consumer. "I gave this message to him [a Fed president]: we can manage through this with unemployment below 4%." CFOs said the labor market remains tight and the wage gains, while slowing, have created a higher wage base which can't be turned back.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Drew Angerer, That's, Wall, Randy Kroszner, CFOs, Sara Eisen, Kroszner, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Market, Fed, CNBC, CNBC Fed Survey, Chatham House, Corporations, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Locations: Washington ,

The average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.71%, according to Freddie Mac — this time last year, it was 5.23%. A competitive market can keep mortgage rates high and homes expensive. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control.

Persons: Freddie Mac, Prices, Fannie Mae, they'll Organizations: Zillow, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, Sky, ARM Locations: Chevron

☆ China's state-run banks cut deposit rates to stimulate sluggish economic growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Six Chinese state-run banks cut their deposit rates, Bloomberg reported. On Thursday, institutions such as Industrial & Commercial Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of China lowered rates by 15 basis points for three-year and five-year deposits and by 10 basis points for two-year rates, Bloomberg reported. Additionally, on-demand deposit rates dropped by 5 basis points, falling to their lowest level since 1996, The Financial Times said. By lowering deposit rates, banks can expect reduced costs, leading towards diminished lending rates. But according to Bloomberg, expectations are rising of further policy changes that may incite economic growth.

Persons: — Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Commercial Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of, Financial Times, FT Locations: China, Bank of China

The average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.79%, according to Freddie Mac — this time last year, it was 5.09%. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control. This means that mortgage rates aren't likely to increase significantly any time soon, and they'll likely continue to cool along with prices.

Persons: Freddie Mac, Prices, Fannie Mae, they'll Organizations: Zillow, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, Sky, ARM Locations: Chevron

☆ BuzzFeed is at risk of getting kicked off the Nasdaq because its stock has been performing so badly
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-03 | by ( Nathan Mcalone | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

BuzzFeed could get kicked off the Nasdaq because its stock price is so low. The digital media company has until November 27 to raise its price or face delisting. BuzzFeed has struggled as a public company and is now trying to pivot to AI and creators. BuzzFeed, once the darling of digital media, is now at risk of getting kicked off the Nasdaq because its stock is doing so badly. BuzzFeed has until November 27 to raise its stock price or it could get booted off the exchange.

Persons: BuzzFeed, J, Clara Chan, We've, Jonah Peretti, it's, Peretti Organizations: Nasdaq, Morning, Securities and Exchange Commission, Hollywood, Facebook

Macy's also slashed its full-year earnings and sales guidance, after "demand trends weakened" for discretionary items in March. Dollar General — Shares tumbled 9% after the company reported an earnings and revenue miss for the first quarter. The lingerie retailer reduced its full-year revenue guidance in the low-single digits range from the prior mid-single digit range estimates. Veeva also raised its full-year earnings per share guidance by 26 cents. The company's full-year revenue guidance also topped analysts' estimates.

Persons: Nordstrom, Nordstrom's, Salesforce, Okta, Okta's, Macy's, CrowdStrike's, Refinitiv, Veeva, Macheel, Samantha Subin, Jesse Pound, Michelle Fox Organizations: BMO Capital, Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, Chewy, —, JPMorgan, CSX, UBS, Systems Locations: New York City, Canada

☆ Here are Thursday's biggest analyst calls: Target, Tesla, Toast, Chevron, Meta, Toll Brothers and more
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

JPMorgan downgrades Okta to neutral from overweight JPMorgan Chase said it sees too many macroeconomic pressures for the company. " JPMorgan downgrades Target to neutral from overweight JPMorgan Chase said in its downgrade of the stock it sees a "weakening" consumer. Bank of America initiates Toast as buy Bank of America said the restaurant tech company is "best in class." JPMorgan upgrades Domino's Pizza to overweight from neutral JPMorgan Chase said in its upgrade of Domino's that it's too cheap to ignore. Bank of America reiterates Dick's as buy Bank of America said it's bullish on the company's new store format.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Johnson, it's, Salesforce, JPMorgan downgrades, JPMorgan Chase, we've, Horton, PulteGroup, TOST, BorgWarner, Morgan Stanley, Tesla, XOM, Cowen, Phillips, Wedbush, Macquarie, Dick's, it's bullish, DKS Organizations: AAP, Barclays, JCI, RBC, Chevron, JPMorgan, JPMorgan downgrades Target, Deutsche Bank, " Bank of America, Bank of America, Restaurant Association, BorgWarner Deutsche Bank, Citi, Meta, ExxonMobil, UBS, CSX, Garden Entertainment, Knicks, Rangers, Networks Locations: Europe, New York

The rate hike "skip" has now become jargon for an emerging compromise between concerns inflation is not yet controlled with fears the economy may slow sharply as banks pull back on credit. "I don't really see a compelling reason to pause," Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester said in an interview published Wednesday in the Financial Times. Jefferson acknowledged inflation remains "too high" and that "by some measures progress has been decelerating recently." While Jefferson does not expect a recession, he noted that there are reasons to be careful after 15 months in which the policy rate was raised by 5 percentage points. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao, Nick Zieminski and Daniel WallisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, Jefferson, Jerome, Powell, Krishna Guha, Patrick Harker, Harker, Loretta Mester, Michelle Bowman, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao, Nick Zieminski, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, U.S . Senate, Philadelphia Fed, Cleveland Fed, Financial Times, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington

High mortgage rates have created a lock-in effect for current homeowners who might otherwise be interested in listing their homes on the market. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control. Sky high mortgage rates have pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market, slowing homebuying demand and putting downward pressure on home prices.

Persons: Prices, Selma Hepp, Fannie Mae, they'll Organizations: Zillow, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, Sky, ARM Locations: Chevron

Average 30-year mortgage rates increased to 6.39% this week. Stubbornly high mortgage rates have kept many would-be homebuyers out of the market. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control.

☆ Recalled Peloton treadmills get US regulator approval for repair
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

May 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) on Thursday approved a repair for a rear guard of Peloton Interactive Inc's (PTON.O) recalled 'Tread+' treadmill. "The approved rear guard repair eliminates the potential for entrapment near the rear roller of the treadmill," the safety regulator said in a statement. "The rear guard repair features a breakaway design that pivots away from the treadmill when it comes into contact with a person or object, shutting off power to the unit and decelerating the belt." To date, in addition to the reported death, Peloton has received a total of 351 incident reports of pull-unders, including 90 reports of injuries to consumers, according to the CPSC. Peloton will offer the guard free of charge to all members who own a 'Tread+', the virtual workout company said in a statement on its website.

☆ As Big Cap tech nears new highs and dominates indexes, some stress equal weighting
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

As big-cap tech approaches new highs, some put more emphasis on equal weight. With more than $7 trillion indexed to the S & P 500, this is not an academic debate. With the S & P 500 up 8% this year, the average stock, as represented by the S & P Equal Weight ETF (RSP), is up a measly 0.5%. The RSP has underperformed the market-cap weighted S & P 500 month-to-date, quarter-to-date, and year-to-date. An argument could be made that active managers invest more like an equal-weight index.

☆ Here's what to expect when Club apparel retailers TJX and Foot Locker report this week
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Apparel retailers TJX Companies (TJX) and Foot Locker (FL) are set to deliver quarterly results this week, as consumers continue to be squeezed by a slowing economy and still-persistent inflation. Sneaker retailer Foot Locker reports Friday before the opening bell, with Refinitiv estimates showing revenue should have fallen by 8.3 % annually, to $1.90 billion, with EPS falling 49 % to, 81 cents. Foot Locker is going through a transitionary period as it reinvents itself, so our expectations are low for the first quarter. "Don't expect anything from Foot Locker," Jim Cramer said Monday. Foot Locker Inc. signage is displayed in the window of a store in New York, U.S. Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Mortgage rates started the week somewhat elevated, but they've since dropped significantly. This should take the upward pressure off mortgage rates and allow them to drop. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control.

"Markets reacted positively because they saw the inflation data as a small positive," said Michael Harris, president at hedge fund Quest Partners LLC. The rate-sensitive S&P 500 technology sector index (.SPLRCT) went up 1.22% and the communication services (.SPLRCL) rose 1.69%. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidIndexes were choppy during the session, as investors digested the positive inflation print with concerns about the looming debt ceiling. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 1.32-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.40-to-1 ratio favored advancers. The S&P 500 posted 18 new 52-week highs and 11 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 86 new highs and 152 new lows.

The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.9% in April from a year ago and compared with expectations of a 5% increase. The lower-than-expected inflation data drove the Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) up as much as 1.17% to its highest intraday level in more than eight months. The rate-sensitive S&P 500 technology sector index (.SPLRCT) rose 0.82%, while communication services (.SPLRCL) was up 1.21%. Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.17-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.03-to-1 ratio favored advancers. The S&P 500 posted 14 new 52-week highs and 11 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 71 new highs and 135 new lows.

Cromwell’s rule plays an important formal role in Bayesian statistics but it is important for any exercise in prediction and analysis. SOFT LANDING CONDITIONSI have written elsewhere the global economy is on course for a significant mid-cycle slowdown if not a cycle-ending recession. Multiple conditions would need to be satisfied, and none violated, for a soft landing to occur. The soft landing scenario is so tricky to pull off and therefore so improbable it has been called “immaculate disinflation” by some forecasters. Nevertheless, the probability of a soft landing is far from zero.

☆ Goldman says share buybacks on pace to tumble this year, but 2 stocks are bucking the trend
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Buybacks of stocks within the S & P 500 are down 21% in the first quarter of 2023 compared with the same period a year ago, said Goldman Sachs' Ryan Hammond. For the full year, companies in the S & P 500 are expected to spend a total of $808 billion repurchasing shares in 2023, Hammond said. In total, cash spending from companies in the S & P 500 is expected to fall by a relatively modest 1% in 2023, alongside decelerating earnings per share growth. Of the 10, only Meta Platforms and Microsoft have increased their buybacks in the first quarter of this year. META MSFT YTD mountain Meta and Microsoft Facebook-parent Meta increased its share repurchase authorization to $40 billion.

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