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☆ Australia employment unexpectedly drops, reinforcing rate pause bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SYDNEY, May 18 (Reuters) - Australia employment unexpectedly dipped in April after two months of outsized gains, and the jobless rate also ticked up in a sign the red-hot labour market might be cooling, bolstering the case for a pause in interest rate hikes next month. The jobless rate ticked up to a three-month high of 3.7% from a near 50-year low of 3.5%, when analysts had expected no change. Markets reinforced bets of a rate pause next month but were pricing in some risk of a move in August or September. "We expect to see a gradual softening in labour market conditions over 2023 as the impact of interest rate increases to date start to bite," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia. "NAB's view is that there will likely be at least one further rate increase, but we remain close to the peak of this interest rate cycle."

☆ Australia wage growth hits decade-high, quarterly gains miss forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed its wage price index rose 0.8% in the March quarter from the previous quarter, just under forecasts of a 0.9% increase. Annual pay growth, however, accelerated to 3.7%, from a revised 3.4% the previous quarter, compared with forecasts of 3.6%. The central bank has flagged more rate rises might be required, saying a rise in productivity growth, which has slumped to the lowest since the 1970s, would be needed to ensure wage growth remains consistent with inflation target. Annual wage growth is expected to peak at 4.0% at the end of this year before easing back to 3.7% by mid-2025. The ABS data showed wages in the public sector picked up to an annual rise of 3.0% while growth in private sector wages increased 3.8%.

☆ Australia's c.bank hiked in May due to inflation risks, more raises may be required
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, May 16(Reuters) - Australia's central bank decided to hike at its May meeting due to inflation risks from weak productivity growth, persistently high services inflation and faster-than-forecast rental increases, saying more rate rises may be required. Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's May 2 policy meeting released on Tuesday said board members also considered a pause, but that the inflation risks warranted a 25 basis point increase, after holding rates steady in April. "Members also agreed that further increases in interest rates may still be required, but that this would depend on how the economy and inflation evolve." Inflation is not expected to decline to the top of the Bank's 2-3% target range until mid-2025, leaving little room for upside risks, the May minutes said. Governor Philip Lowe has warned that the central bank cannot take too long to being inflation to heel.

☆ Wall Street advances, Treasury yields rise as debt-ceiling debate rolls along
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"It feels like there's some optimism regarding talks on the debt ceiling," said Joseph Sroka, chief investment officer at NovaPoint in Atlanta. "Part of that may be political gamesmanship, but it's helping the market a little bit today." European stocks ended the session higher as investors eyed ongoing U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and Turkey's impending election runoff. Emerging market stocks rose 0.54%. Gold edged higher in opposition to the weakening dollar as the ongoing debt ceiling standoff stoked fears of a global economic slowdown.

☆ Tech lifts Nasdaq, Treasury yields gain as debt ceiling debate plods on
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 11, 2023. "It feels like there's some optimism regarding talks on the debt ceiling," said Joseph Sroka, chief investment officer at NovaPoint in Atlanta. European stocks ended the session higher as investors eyed ongoing U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and Turkey's impending election runoff. Emerging market stocks rose 0.53%. Gold edged higher in opposition to the weakening dollar as the debt ceiling standoff wore on, and investors clung to hopes of interest rate cuts by year-end, despite comments from Fed officials.

☆ Wall Street wavers, Treasury yields gain as debt ceiling debate plods on
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 11, 2023. European stocks pared initial gains and were last nominally higher as investors eyed ongoing U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and Turkey's impending election runoff. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.12% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.14%. Emerging market stocks rose 0.39%. Gold edged higher in opposition to the weakening dollar as the debt ceiling standoff wore on.

☆ Asian shares inch up as investors brace for China data, Fed speakers
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The guarded optimism is set to extend to Europe when markets open, with pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2%. Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were mostly flat. China is due to report monthly industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment data on Tuesday. "However, with China's data throwing up a few concerns of late - we've seen poor import, PPI, and loan data - China's growth is very much at the heart of market moves," said Weston. U.S. crude futures fell 0.6% to $69.61 per barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 0.6% to $73.68 per barrel.

☆ Asian shares on edge for China data, Fed speakers
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

On Monday, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) wobbled between losses and gains and was last up 0.1%. China is due to report monthly industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment data on Tuesday. Very much on investors' mind was the uncertainty about lifting the U.S. debt ceiling and the return of bank worries. The yield on benchmark 10-year notes was little changed at 3.4588%, after rising 6 basis points on Friday, and two-year yields eased 2 basis points to 3.9830%, having also jumped 10 basis points in the previous session. U.S. crude futures eased 0.5% to $69.71 per barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 0.6% to $73.74 per barrel.

☆ Asian shares braced for China data, Fed speakers
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Investors are keenly awaiting China's central bank rate decision on Monday. Market watchers polled by Reuters expect the medium-term policy rate to be left unchanged despite disappointing data last week that fuelled concerns about a global slowdown. The country is due to report monthly industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment data on Tuesday. Very much on investors' mind was the uncertainty about lifting the U.S. debt ceiling and the return of bank worries. Oil prices were trying to find a footing after tumbling nearly 2% last week on demand concerns.

☆ Trump Revives Election Lies and False Boasts in CNN Town Hall
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Linda Qiu | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Mr. Trump then repeated his lie that the 2020 election was rigged. Mr. Trump was referring to the events of Jan. 6, 2021, when his loyalists stormed the Capitol in a bid to stop the certification of Mr. Biden’s election victory. Mr. Trump also claimed that the acting defense secretary at the time, Christopher C. Miller, backed up his account. Vanity Fair reported in 2021 that Mr. Trump had floated the 10,000 figure to Mr. Miller the night of Jan. 5. Nor did a Pentagon inspector general report on the breach, which instead referred to suggestions by Mr. Trump that his rally on Jan. 6 had been conducted safely.

☆ Australia to deliver first budget surplus in 15 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia is set to deliver its first budget surplus in 15 years on Tuesday, as its coffers bulge with tax windfalls from higher commodities prices and wages, giving it room to dole out cost-of-living relief amid an inflation squeeze on households. FILE PHOTO: Tourists walk around the forecourt of Australia's Parliament House in Canberra, Australia, October 16, 2017. REUTERS/David GrayHowever, fiscal challenges loom large with resource prices well off their peaks and the domestic economy slowing thanks to high interest rates. That is a huge turnaround from a projected deficit of A$36.9 billion in October, although underlying structural pressures are seen keeping the budget in the red in years ahead. “This will be a responsible Budget, which focuses on people doing it tough,” said Chalmers in an interview with ABC Radio on Monday.

☆ Australia business activity robust in April, cost pressures still a challenge
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, May 8 (Reuters) - Australian business conditions remained sturdy in April, supported by robust sales and labour market strength despite high inflation and rising interest rates, while cost pressures were still posing a challenge for firms. The survey from National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) (NAB.AX) released on Monday showed its index of business conditions fell two points to +14 in April, but stayed well above its long-run average. The volatile measure of confidence edged up to 0, compared with March's -1, suggesting that an equal share of firms were optimistic as pessimistic. The still strong business activity showed why the Reserve Bank of Australia stunned markets last week by lifting rates to an 11-year high of 3.85%, when traders had looked for an extended pause, and warned that more tightening might be needed. Cost growth remained a challenge, with the measure of labour costs steadying at a quarterly rate of 1.9% and purchase costs picking up to 2.3%, compared with 1.9% in March.

☆ Alabama Discriminated Against Black Residents Over Sewage, Justice Dept. Says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Linda Qiu | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The Justice Department said it had reached an interim agreement with the health departments of Alabama and one of its rural counties over practices found to discriminate against generations of Black residents. Under the agreement announced Thursday, the Alabama Department of Public Health and the Lowndes County Health Department said they would improve wastewater infrastructure, measure the health risks associated with raw sewage exposure, and stop penalizing residents who cannot afford adequate treatment systems. The agreement represents “a new chapter for Black residents of Lowndes County, Ala., who have endured health dangers, indignities and racial injustice for far too long,” said Kristen Clarke, the assistant attorney general for the Justice Department’s civil rights division. Catherine Coleman Flowers, an environmental activist who grew up in Lowndes, said that residents of the county, like those in many other rural communities, use wastewater systems installed on the grounds of homes and businesses rather than a centralized sewage treatment plant operated by a local government. But the county stood alone in penalizing residents for sanitation issues that were outside their control, she added.

☆ Australia's exports to China hit record highs as barriers ease
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SYDNEY, May 4 (Reuters) - Australia's exports to China surged to record highs in March as the Asian giant sucked in more iron for its steel industry and lowered barriers to thermal coal shipments amid thawing diplomatic relations. Data out on Thursday showed exports of Australian goods to China hit A$19 billion ($12.71 billion) in March, a rise of 31% from a year earlier and pipping the previous peak from mid-2021. The jump helped lift Australia's total trade surplus to its second-highest on record at A$15.3 billion, a boon to mining profits and tax receipts. Shipments of thermal coal to China surged 125% by volume in March from February, offsetting a drop in exports to Japan. ($1 = 1.4952 Australian dollars)Reporting by Stella Qiu and Wayne Cole; Editing by Simon Cameron-MooreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Why the 14th Amendment Is Being Cited in the Debt Ceiling Debate
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Linda Qiu | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Some have argued that the clause, outlined in Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, bars anyone who has “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” from holding public office. Now, the standoff over the national debt has renewed debate over Section 4 of the amendment, known as the public debt clause. After the Civil War and the assassination of President Abraham Lincoln, lawmakers sought to set out the terms of the Confederacy’s surrender and the rebellious states’ re-entry into the Union. The 13th Amendment’s formal abolition of slavery also meant that the size of delegations from former Confederate states would increase, even as the states passed discriminatory “Black codes” and prevented former slaves from voting. Reconstructionist Republicans in Congress sought to address these issues by passing the Civil Rights Act of 1866, which guaranteed citizenship and equal protection for former slaves.

☆ Currencies in limbo awaiting packed week of central banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, May 1 (Reuters) - Currencies were in limbo on Monday as holidays in most of Asia made for thin trading, while traders braced for a packed week of central bank meetings that would offer the latest guidance on future rate hikes across continents. Activity in the foreign exchange markets was subdued due to the Labour Day holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong and mainland China. The Japanese yen slid 0.2% to 136.67 per dollar on Monday, extending its post-BOJ slump. The currency fell 1.1% last week to a seven-week low of $0.6573, but has found strong support at the March trough of $0.6564. The New Zealand dollar lost 0.3% to $0.6172, giving back some of the impressive rally last week.

☆ Asian shares sink on banking jitters, US economic concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) were 0.3% lower on Thursday, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) lost 0.4%. Data showed that new orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods fell more than expected in March, suggesting that business spending on equipment was likely a drag on economic growth in the first quarter. Wells Fargo lowered its forecast for U.S. GDP growth by 100 basis points to a 0.8% rise. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, dropped to 101.4 on fresh concerns over a U.S. slowdown. U.S. crude futures edged up 0.3% to $74.5 per barrel, while Brent crude futures rose 0.5% to $78.09 per barrel.

☆ Fact-Checking the Kickoff to Biden’s Re-election Campaign
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Linda Qiu | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Moreover, Mr. Biden’s first two years in office followed historic job losses wrought by the coronavirus pandemic in Donald J. Trump’s presidency. Mr. Biden was born in November 1942 at St. Mary’s Hospital in Scranton, Penn., according to biographies. Mr. Finnegan died at St. Mary’s Hospital, but in May 1957, when Mr. Biden was a teenager, not before he was born. What Mr. Biden Said“My first two years in office I’ve lowered the deficit by a record $1.7 trillion.”This needs context. But much of that decline can be attributed to the expiration of pandemic-era spending, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which presses for lower levels of spending.

☆ New box jellyfish species found in Hong Kong's waters -study
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

HONG KONG, April 19 (Reuters) - A Hong Kong university team said it has discovered a new species of box jellyfish in the city's Mai Po Nature Reserve, the first discovery of the venomous species in China's waters. Baptist University (HKBU) together with WWF-Hong Kong, Ocean Park Hong Kong and University of Manchester said on Tuesday that the team collected jellyfish samples from a brackish shrimp pond over 2020-2022 and found they contained a new species. Box jellyfish "are poorly known in Chinese marine waters. Our discovery of Tripedalia maipoensis in Mai Po - a relatively well-studied area in Hong Kong - highlights the rich diversity of marine life in Hong Kong and even the whole of China," he said. Box jellyfish, scientifically known as class Cubozoa, includes some of the highly venomous marine animals that are widely known in tropical waters, the study said.

In February, the first full month since China's border reopened, Australia recorded 40,430 short-term visitors from China, government data showed. Government marketing body Tourism Australia declined to comment. Trade promotion office Austrade said Tourism Australia's managing director visited China in March to meet strategic partners such as airlines and the body would "continue to work closely with its key distribution partners in the market to realise tourism opportunities between Australia and China". China was Australia's biggest source of foreign students until 2019, but students of other nationalities have filled its foreign student ranks since Australia reopened its border in 2021. "When Chinese tourists return en masse, I'm worried that the supply will not catch up with demand," he said.

☆ Australia's robust March employment suggests RBA may hike again
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Steven Saphore/File PhotoSummary Strong employment, jobless near 50-year lows keep RBA on alertFull-time employment surges, positive for household incomeData suggests strong Q1 inflation, see RBA hike again -analystSYDNEY, April 13 (Reuters) - Australia employment blew past expectations for a second month in March while the jobless rate held near 50-year lows, an unambiguously strong report that suggests the central bank's tightening campaign may not be over yet. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday net employment rose 53,000 in March from February, when they rebounded by a steep but slightly downwardly revised 63,600. The jobless rate stayed at 3.5%, when analysts had looked for a nudge up to 3.6%. Full-time employment surged by 72,200, after a hefty increase of 74,900 the previous month, an encouraging sign for household income. Reporting by Stella Qiu and Wayne Cole; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Australia pauses rate hikes to assess tightening impact, Q1 inflation in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Wrapping up its April policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) did warn that "some further tightening of monetary policy may well be needed" to ensure that inflation returns to target. Markets had been wagering on a pause, while analysts were split on whether the bank would hike again given the still high level of inflation. Three-year bond futures were up 9 ticks to 97.14, with futures now also leaning towards a pause in May, implying hikes are essentially over. "The Board recognises that monetary policy operates with a lag and that the full effect of this substantial increase in interest rates is yet to be felt." Bill Evans, chief economist at Westpac, said there isn't sufficient evidence for the bank to change its terminal rate forecast of 3.85%, after Tuesday's pause.

Chinese demand is helping boost Singapore property prices, Chinese students are snapping up apartments in Sydney and Melbourne, and agents say Chinese interest is ticking up in Thailand. But they indicate that in the wake of the pandemic, Chinese families are looking to relocate assets, and even themselves, overseas. Home purchases in Singapore, where Chinese are the top foreign buyers, cooled early in 2023 from last year's torrid pace - but only slightly despite a steep rise in real estate stamp duties. The Singapore American School has "seen significant interest from Chinese families looking to enrol," it said in a statement responding to Reuters questions. Canada, another real estate market popular with Chinese investors, has put a two-year ban on foreign purchasers.

☆ Shares and bonds ride high after soothing euro zone data
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Government bonds have gained as much as 5%, gold is 8% higher, while oil is down and the dollar has barely budged. The euro zone inflation numbers showed consumer prices rising 6.9% in March after an 8.5% increase in February, representing the sharpest deceleration since Eurostat started collecting data in 1991. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) also jumped 1% on Friday，as inflation data for the capital Tokyo highlighted broadening price pressures. The euro , which hit a one-week high against the dollar overnight on sticky German inflation data, dipped back under $1.09 again after the euro zone data but was still set for a 3% monthly rise. U.S. crude futures were flat at $74.40 per barrel, while Brent crude futures slipped 0.1% to $78.52 per barrel.

☆ Asian shares ride high in Q1 but keep vigil on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The buoyant mood is likely to run into resistance in Europe, with caution setting in ahead of the euro zone inflation data. The pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures was flat, while S&P 500 futures eked out a gain of 0.2%. It is on course for a quarterly gain of 3.6%, after surging 12% in the three months that ended in December. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) also leaped 1%，as inflation data for the capital Tokyo highlighted broadening price pressures. That compared with an overwhelming bet on a 25 basis point hike a month ago before the banking volatility started.

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