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☆ Sen. Daines’s Twitter account suspended after posting profile picture of himself hunting
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Brian Fung | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Washington CNN —Twitter has suspended Montana Republican Sen. Steve Daines’s account for violations of the company’s sensitive media policy. Daines’ Twitter profile currently displays messages indicating that the account is “temporarily unavailable because it violates the Twitter Media Policy.”According to an aide to the senator, Daines’ account was suspended due to his profile picture, which had shown Daines and his wife posing while hunting. A separate campaign account for Daines with a different profile picture was unaffected. In a statement, Rachel Dumke, a spokesperson for Daine, called the suspension “preposterous” and said Twitter had informed Daines’ office that the suspension would last until the profile picture was removed. Daines’ profile picture had included an animal showing what appeared to be small flecks of blood on its coat, and that were difficult to discern without expanding the image.

☆ Australia’s central bank signals more tightening ahead after hiking rates to decade high
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Markets were surprised by the hawkish tone of the RBA which shattered any expectations of an imminent pause to the tightening campaign. Three-year government bond yields jumped 15 bps to 3.254% while ten-year yields also surged 15 bps to 3.615%. There are signs that consumers are finally pulling back on spending as the cost of living surges and rate increases bite. “High inflation makes life difficult for people and damages the functioning of the economy. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be very costly to reduce later,” warned Lowe as he signaled the bank’s intention to extend the tightening cycle.

☆ GOP Sen. Steve Daines says Elon Musk personally called him after photo with dead antelope got his Twitter account suspended
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Bryan Metzger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

GOP Sen. Steve Daines' Twitter account was suspended Tuesday for violating the site's rules. His profile photo, showing him posing with a dead antelope, violated rules prohibiting graphic imagery. Daines, whose account was reinstated hours later, told reporters that Elon Musk called him. "The rest of the country benefits from the acceptance of diverse thoughts and values, including Montana values." Musk tweeted, apparently in reference to the Daines incident, that Twitter "will be broadly accepting of different values."

☆ Euro zone can afford to keep fiscal taps running
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

If they don’t overdo it, governments can also ease the blow of the European Central Bank’s efforts to tame inflation. But euro zone leaders like Germany’s Olaf Scholz, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni face pressure from economic policymakers to curb the handouts. The Commission estimates that the euro zone aggregate deficit will be 3.7% of GDP in 2023. As the ECB keeps a lid on growth to slay inflation, European governments can keep the fiscal taps open. Follow @guerreraf72 on TwitterloadingCONTEXT NEWSThe European Central Bank is putting pressure on euro zone governments to rein in fiscal spending.

☆ 7 shot dead at Jerusalem synagogue as violence spirals in region
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Aina J. Khan | Paul Goldman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Israeli security forces deploy at the site of a reported attack in a settler neighborhood of Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem, on January 27, 2023. At least seven people were shot dead in a synagogue in east Jerusalem on Friday, Israeli police said, as violence escalated following an a raid in the occupied West Bank city of Jenin. The attack, among the deadliest for Israelis in years, occurred in east Jerusalem, which was annexed by Israel in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, and came after the deadly Israeli raid in the West Bank. The violence comes amid tensions over the Palestinians' long campaign for an independent state in the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem, which were captured by Israel in 1967. Responding to the Israeli raid Thursday, the State Department said the U.S. was "deeply concerned by the escalating cycle of violence in the West Bank."

WASHINGTON — Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego announced Monday he will run for the Arizona U.S. Senate seat currently held by centrist Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party in December to become an independent. In his statement Monday, Gallego said: “The problem isn’t that Senator Sinema abandoned the Democratic Party — it’s that she’s abandoned Arizona. Karrin Taylor Robson, who narrowly lost to Lake in the 2022 primary after spending $20 million of her family’s money, is seriously considering a Senate run, a source close to her said. And Mark Lamb, the Pinal County sheriff, is also considering a Senate run in 2024, said an Arizona Republican source. A Gallego adviser said he's prepared for a two-way race if Sinema steps aside or a three-way race if she chooses to run.

"That would be a problem for any central bank." TUG OF WARLagarde's commitment also puzzled ECB-watchers because the central bank had previously said it wouldn't make such public predictions - known as forward guidance - anymore, but instead take each decision based on incoming data. This of course leads to a tug of war between the ECB and the markets on the narrative," he added. ING's Brzeski said the ECB lacked a clear thought-leader on its Governing Council who could steer markets like Lagarde's predecessor, Mario Draghi. "The cacophony of diverging voices and the lack of clarity on who is the leading voice keeps hurting the ECB," Brzeski said.

☆ ECB must keep raising rates to fight off inflation, Lane says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"We need to raise rates more," the FT quoted Lane said on Tuesday. Lane also said that euro zone governments, which are spending too much on subsidies now, will have to take on a bigger role in fighting off inflation. "The question is how do you get from mid-threes at the end of 2023 to the 2% target in a timely manner," Lane said. For most of the past decade the ECB fought excessively low inflation and some have argued that the underlying conditions have not changed so ultra low price growth could eventually return, forcing the ECB into retreat. But Lane appears to dismiss this argument, saying that the expectations are now adjusting to a higher, healthier level of price growth.

☆ Natural gas prices haven’t been this low since Russia went to war
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

London CNN —Natural gas prices in Europe and the United States have tumbled to levels last seen before Russia sparked a global energy crisis by invading Ukraine. Even so, European gas prices are still historically high, and could rise again this year if demand from China picks up or supplies are disrupted. Wholesale prices were already shooting up in the months before the war as economies reopened from pandemic lockdowns. “It will take a bit [of time] for the fall in the wholesale prices of natural gas to [feed into] into the retail prices,” he said. That will keep Europe at a competitive disadvantage to the United States, where gas prices are about five times lower.

☆ Central banks ramp up rates again but the pace slows
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Central banks in Britain, Norway, Switzerland, the euro zone and the United States have all raised interest rates this week. The central bank raised its forecast for its peak interest rate to 5.5%, up from a previous forecast of 4.1%. Money markets moved after the statement to forecast UK interest rates will top out at around 4.5% in August. Markets anticipate an 80% chance of a 50 bps hike when the Riksbank meets next in February. But market players do not expect any significant change from the world's lone major central bank dove.

[1/2] Signage is seen outside the European Central Bank (ECB) building, in Frankfurt, Germany, July 21, 2022. After being wrong-footed by sudden price rises, the ECB has been raising rates at an unprecedented pace. Inflation has soared since economies reopened after the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by supply bottlenecks and then surging energy costs following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "We judge that interest rates will still have to rise significantly and at a steady pace," Lagarde told a news conference following its rate announcement. Money markets immediately moved to price in a peak deposit rate of just over 3% by July, compared to 2.75% before the meeting.

☆ ECB's Lagarde offers back-to-back rate hikes to woo dissenters
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, Dec 15 (Reuters) - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde offered fellow policymakers back-to-back interest rate hikes worth 50 basis points each to secure a majority for Thursday's policy decision, four sources told Reuters. The stalemate ended when Lagarde offered to signal more 50-basis-point rises and a hawkish message on inflation during her press conference, convincing enough policymakers to back the proposal. The compromise helped her secure a majority for the decision although 8-10 policymakers out of 25 remained sceptical - an unusually high proportion. At a press conference after the decision, Lagarde said that, based on current data, she anticipated another 50 basis-point rise at the ECB's next meeting on Feb 2 "and possibly at the one after that, and possibly thereafter". This clashed with the ECB's promise to take decisions "meeting-by-meeting" and depending on the data.

[1/2] Signage is seen outside the European Central Bank (ECB) building, in Frankfurt, Germany, July 21, 2022. Economists polled by Reuters expected the ECB to raise the rate it pays on bank deposits to 2% on Thursday before pushing it to 2.5% by March and 2.75% by June. The ECB was also due to lay out plans to stop replacing maturing bonds in its 5 trillion-euro portfolio, reversing years of debt purchases that have turned the central bank into the biggest creditor of many euro zone governments. The ECB will announce its policy decisions at 1315 GMT, followed by a news conference of President Christine Lagarde at 1345 GMT. "The counterpart of slower rate hikes will be hawkish guidance on the terminal rate ... accompanied by earlier or faster 'passive' QT."

Headline inflation slowed in November for the first time in 1-1/2 years, to 10%, raising hopes that sky-high price growth has passed. ECB President Christine Lagarde will likely be careful about calling a peak after last year's "big mistake" of insisting surging prices were "transitory," said Pictet's Ducrozet. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane reckons wages would be a "primary driver" of price inflation even after energy price shocks fade. Closely-watched business activity data points to a mild recession and latest forecasts should show how the ECB views the coming slowdown. Lane believes record price growth will start to subside next year.

EARLY WARNING SIGNSAfter years of tame inflation, Fed officials and other central bankers say they have faced a chain of disruptive events beyond their control ranging from the COVID-19 pandemic to the Ukraine war. The central bank has made conservative estimates on inflation despite Russia cutting gas supplies to Europe in response to Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. Even as some economists say an inflation peak could now be in sight, central bankers remain far from taming inflation. The concern among some central bankers is that politicians will respond by raising public spending and so aggravate the inflation pressure that their rate-hike cure is intended to heal. If that were to happen, central bankers “would have to reverse course to prevent the debt market from becoming more disorderly," Goodhart told Reuters.

☆ Morning Bid: Hat-trick
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

For the euro zone, commentary by officials is hinting at a peak in rates but anaemic growth and stubbornly high inflation are haunting investors. ECB policymaker Constantinos Herodotou said on Tuesday that interest rates will go up again but are now "very near" their neutral level. Markets will focus on industrial output data due from Germany, while euro zone third-quarter GDP and employment numbers, and UK house prices are among the other economic indicators for the day. Euro zone government bond yields dropped for the first time in three days on Tuesday in the run-up to a raft of major central bank decisions next week. The central bank has made conservative estimates on inflation despite Russia cutting gas supplies to Europe in response to Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine.

☆ Gold struggles for momentum as investors await further Fed cues
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. Gold prices struggled for momentum in early Asian trade on Wednesday as investors looked to next week's U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting for clues on the pace of rate hikes. U.S. gold futures were flat at $1,783.10. Fed fund futures are now pricing in a 91% chance of 50-basis point (bps) rate increase in the December meeting. SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.3% to 906.06 tons on Tuesday.

☆ Analysis: Europe's inflation problem will linger for years to come
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Government stimulus measures are working against the ECB's policy tightening, and too much of the energy price rise has seeped into the broader economy through second-round effects, fuelling underlying price growth. "The core inflation rate is unlikely to peak until mid-2023 and will only fall slowly thereafter," Commerzbank economist Christoph Weil said. "Against this backdrop, the ECB's goal of pushing the inflation rate back to just under 2% on a sustainable basis seems a long way off." The ECB's new projections, due out next week, are set to show inflation above target through 2024 and only falling to 2% in 2025. But it is not evident that after a few years of above-trend growth, wage-setting will fall back in line with the ECB's target.

☆ Morning Bid: Five Alive
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

And given that investors are overwhelmingly positioning for peak rates by mid year and Fed rate cuts after that, the 'good news is bad news' reactions re-emerged on Monday. Futures markets pushed their implied Fed 'terminal rate' next May back above 5% - from as low as 4.85% shortly after Fed Chair Jerome's peculiarly dovish speech last week. There were further signs that China's COVID restrictions are being lifted gradually - though that's ambiguous for global inflation outlooks more generally. There will also be attention later on the U.S. Senate runoff in Georgia - although Democrats have control of the Senate regardless. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ ECB needs more rate hikes but inflation close to peak, chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will have to raise interest rates several more times to tame price pressures, even if headline inflation is now close to its peak, ECB chief economist Philip Lane told the Milano Finanza. "We do expect that more rate increases will be necessary, but a lot has been done already," the paper quoted Lane as saying on Tuesday. "I would be reasonably confident in saying that it is likely we are close to peak inflation." Lane did not explicitly endorse a 50 bps move over a bigger increase but repeated his case for a slowdown. "Given the significant increase in (natural gas) prices, I don’t rule out some extra inflation early next year," Lane said.

SYDNEY, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank on Tuesday raised interest rates to a 10-year high and stuck with its projection that more hikes are needed, a stance taken as slightly hawkish by markets that were looking for signs of a pause in the near term. "The size and timing of future interest rate increases will continue to be determined by the incoming data and the Board's assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market." Some economists had been looking for a change in the forward guidance by the central bank this time. A top central banker said in November that the board was nearer to the point where it might pause on rates. The central bank had previously indicated it wanted to slow down and assess the drastic moves' effects on consumer spending, especially with a global recession looming.

☆ Morning Bid: Powell clears the decks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Intended or not, investors clearly read Wednesday's keynote speech by the Federal Reserve chair as a green light for a yearend relief rally in beaten down assets. On the face of it, Fed chief Jerome Powell merely confirmed what most had already assumed - that the Fed would downshift the size of its interest rate rises to half a point next month. The upshot is that markets have dragged their implied peak Fed rate next year back below 5% and continue to price up to half a point of cuts by the end of 2023. Core PCE inflation numbers are due later and another barrage of Fed speakers to hold Powell's take up to the light.

☆ Euro zone yields drop as Fed chair signals smaller hikes ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Prior to Powell's speech, markets had been pricing in a peak in interest rates at 5.05%, according to data from Refinitiv. Jefferies interest rate strategist Mohit Kumar said Powell's appearance on Wednesday was dovish compared to his last post-decision press conference. "The dovish element was his view that the terminal rates would be 'somewhat' higher than the September projections, while the market has been viewing terminal rates as substantially higher than the September dot plot of 4.4%," Kumar added. Germany's 10-year yield, the benchmark for the euro area, dropped 11 basis points (bps) to 1.839%. Italy's 10-year yield was down 15 bps to 3.74%, pushing the closely watched spread between Italian and German 10-year yields tighter by around 8 bps to 189 bps.

☆ Don't expect any interest-rate cuts in 2023 with inflation set to remain above central banks' targets, Credit Suisse says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Inflation is seen staying above central banks' targets in 2023, according to Credit Suisse. That will likely prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates next year, the bank said. Still, "it will remain above central bank targets in 2023 in most major developed economies, including the USA, the UK and the Eurozone." "We do not forecast interest-rate cuts by any of the developed market central banks next year," they added. The bank expects the first half to be defined by high interest rates, which will likely support value stocks.

☆ ECB at risk of not doing enough to fight inflation, Knot says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"My worry is still inflation, inflation, inflation," Knot, an outspoken policy hawk told a conference. "As long as the risks to our inflation outlook are so clearly tilted to the upside, I think the risk of us doing too little is clearly more pronounced than us doing too much," he added. For now, the ECB is still providing accommodation, Knot argued, and the next step will be to get into a territory that restricts growth. "We will get weaker growth, that's for sure. But we also need weaker growth to bring inflation back to target."

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