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☆ Futures subdued as investors eye bank earnings, Fed cues
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures up: Dow 0.07%, S&P 0.10%, Nasdaq 0.01%April 17 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were largely flat on Monday as investors awaited more bank earnings and views from Federal Reserve policymakers that could shape expectations around when the central bank will pause its monetary policy tightening. Wall Street ended lower on Friday as a barrage of mixed economic data appeared to affirm another Fed interest rate hike in May, dampening investor enthusiasm after a series of big U.S. bank earnings launched the first-quarter reporting season. U.S. central bank officials including New York Fed President John Williams and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester are scheduled to speak later this week. ET (1230 GMT) is expected to show business conditions in New York state improved in April after slumping in the previous month. ET, Dow e-minis were up 24 points, or 0.07%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 4.25 points, or 0.10%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 1 point, or 0.01%.

Fed bank directors don't vote on monetary policy, but they do express their views through non-binding votes on the discount rate, which is what the Fed charges to commercial banks for emergency loans. Fed bank presidents say their directors provide key information on the state of the economy. Despite their boards' preference for something different, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari joined other Fed policymakers in a unanimous vote last month to lift the benchmark overnight interest rate to the 4.75%-5.00% range. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester do not cast policy votes this year. Fed meeting minutes never specify which policymakers made which comments.

But overall bank credit has been stalled at about $17.5 trillion since January. The response - less lending, tighter credit standards and higher interest on loans - was already taking shape. Hard data on bank lending and credit will come into play, augmenting topline statistics like unemployment and inflation that the Fed is focused on. Reuters GraphicsSENTIMENT WEAKENINGThe survey of large and small banks asks high-level questions - Are lending standards tighter or looser? A Dallas Fed bank conditions survey, conducted in late March after the two bank failures, indicated lending standards in that Fed regional bank's district have kept tightening, with loan demand falling.

☆ Key inflation data and earnings reports loom as labor market signals a slowing U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Fed officials have been pointing to the tight labor market as an area of concern for inflation, using it as evidence that it hasn't tightened rates enough. After months of strategists and investors complaining that earnings estimates are too high, they've started to fall — but with a catch. If the trough in earnings is close, then the stock market could be in for a big year. ET - Producer price index Friday: Earnings: UnitedHealth, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Citigroup, PNC Financial 8:30 a.m. ET - Fed H.8 data on assets and liabilities of U.S. commercial banks

☆ Gold slips on firmer dollar ahead of US payrolls data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] Gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File PhotoApril 6 (Reuters) - Gold prices fell on Thursday as the dollar firmed ahead of a much awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls report, as investors sought clarity on whether the Federal Reserve might take a breather on its monetary tightening path. * Investors now await Friday's non-farm payrolls report for March, with economists polled by Reuters expecting new jobs of about 240,000. * Markets see a 54.2% chance of the Fed standing pat on interest rates in May, according to the CME FedWatch tool. * While gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates dim non-yielding bullion's appeal.

☆ Gold off one-year highs as dollar firms ahead of U.S. payrolls data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices slipped from one-year highs on Thursday as the dollar regained some ground, while investors awaited the U.S. non-farm payrolls report to gage the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy. The economic data points this week were major components supporting gold prices, he added, while also noting some profit-booking ahead of the Good Friday holiday. Wednesday's data showed the U.S. services sector slowed more than expected in March. While gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, higher interest rates dim non-yielding bullion's appeal. Markets see a 53.8% chance of the Fed standing pat on interest rates in May, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

If the fed funds rate is discounted by core PCE inflation, the real interest rate is currently a positive 0.275%, and rising. Using annual headline PCE inflation of 5% in February, the real fed funds rate is only -0.125%. Real policy rates were positive for at least two decades up until 2002. For its part, the Fed sees the real fed funds rate ending this year around +180 bps, based on its median fed funds and PCE inflation projections of 5.1% and 3.3%, respectively. Bank of America rates strategists think this is far too optimistic, and real policy rates will be much lower.

☆ More signs are pointing to an imminent slowdown in the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US economy is showing signs of a sudden slowdown after a year of tightening financial conditions. "Expectations of tightening lending standards contributed to the market's concern that an economic slowdown is unfolding in real time," LPL said. A potential economic slowdown is also starting to show up in retail sales growth, which fell 0.4% in February. Mester's comments "contributed to the market's increasing concern that an economic slowdown is unfolding in real time," LPL's chief global strategist Quincy Krosby told Insider. First-quarter earnings season kicks off next week with the bank stocks, while the March jobs report will be released this Friday, when the stock market is closed for Good Friday.

The slew of soft economic data has added to fears of an impending recession in the world's largest economy, putting a lid on risk appetite and sending traders in search of some safe haven assets. The U.S. dollar index was up 0.1% at 101.95, having slid to a two-month trough of 101.40 in the previous session. The Japanese yen also found some support from safe haven bids and was last roughly 0.2% higher at 131.01 per dollar. "Weak economic data continues to weigh in on investor sentiment, triggering a flight-to-safety bid," analysts at Westpac said in a note to clients. The soft data sent U.S. shares lower on Wednesday STX/ while Treasuries advanced, which saw the benchmark 10-year yield falling to its lowest since September .

☆ NY Fed index shows global supply chain pressures eased further in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The bank said that as of March, its Global Supply Chain Pressure index moved to a reading of -1.06, versus the revised -0.28 seen in February. "Global supply chain conditions have largely normalized after experiencing temporary setbacks around the turn of the year," the bank said in its report. The index has seen extended periods of below-average supply chain stress and was in negative territory during the summer of 2019, ahead of the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. There was also an extended period of below-normal supply chain stress between roughly 2011 and 2016. But price pressures driven by non-energy service factors stripped of housing are "having the most trouble" abating, Williams said.

The underlying trend though for the dollar remained tilted to the downside and Wednesday's U.S. private sector jobs numbers affirmed that. The ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in March, suggesting a cooling labor market. Private employment increased by 145,000 jobs last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 200,000. Another report on Wednesday also indicated continued economic weakness, this time in the services sector.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets labor under recession cloud
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. If the tight U.S. labor market is finally unwinding, markets suspect the Federal Reserve's job may well done after all - but at the cost of a looming recession. With Wednesday's private sector jobs reading for March and Friday's national payrolls report ahead, U.S. interest rate markets were jolted again on Tuesday by surprisingly soft data on job vacancies that suggested cooling demand for staff. More decisively, the two-year Treasury yield plunged more than 20 basis points intraday to hover just above 3.8% on Wednesday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Dollar mired near two-month low; Kiwi gains on RBNZ surprise
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The kiwi rallied 1% to touch a two-month high of $0.6383 after the decision. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six peers, eased to a fresh two-month low of 101.43, after dropping 0.5% overnight. Markets were pricing in a 43% chance of Fed not raising interest rates a day earlier. "And the Fed may have to perhaps do more and keep rates high for longer." The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 1.3 basis points to 3.350%, having slipped 9 basis points overnight.

☆ Morning Bid: Jolted markets fret about economy, Fed rate path
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The JOLTS report on Tuesday showed that U.S. job openings dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years in February, with traders wagering that the Fed is just about done with its interest rate hikes. And yet, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said that the U.S. central bank likely has more interest rate rises ahead amid signs the recent banking sector troubles have been contained. A surprise 50 basis point hike from New Zealand's central bank shocked the Asian market, with kiwi-dollar scaling a two-month peak. Twenty-two of 24 economists in a Reuters poll had forecast the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would raise rates by just 25 basis points. A Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists showed that the U.S. dollar will weaken against most major currencies this year as the interest rate gap with its peers stops widening.

☆ Dollar struggles on weak data; Kiwi surges on RBNZ surprise
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The kiwi rallied 1% to touch a two-month high of $0.6383 after the decision. Elsewhere, data overnight showed U.S. job openings dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years in February, suggesting that labour market conditions were finally easing. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six peers, eased to a fresh two-month low of 101.43, after dropping 0.5% overnight. In the U.S. bond market, the two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 2.6 basis points at 3.860%, after sliding 14 basis points on Tuesday. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 1.8 basis points to 3.355%, having slipped 9 basis points overnight.

☆ Fed's Mester says rate target will need to go over 5%
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

April 4 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said on Tuesday that the U.S. central bank likely has more interest rate rises ahead amid signs the recent banking sector troubles have been contained. The decision was haunted by banking sector troubles that led policymakers to say that a tightening in financial conditions would likely weigh on economic activity. "I was very comfortable with moving ahead” with the rate rise, given that authorities had taken steps to manage risks coming from banking sector troubles, Mester said in remarks following her speech. At the policy meeting, officials also penciled in a single additional rate rise for this year, as the Fed continues to boost the cost of short-term borrowing in a bid to lower inflation. Mester expressed confidence that banking sector woes should ultimately prove contained.

☆ Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the stock market Wednesday: New dawn for JNJ, Disney push, Meta upgrade
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Meta Platforms (META) price target raised to $250 from $225 at Jeffries. Federal Realty (FRT) price target lowered to $111 from $118 at Piper Sandler. Bank of America raises price target for Apple to $168 from $158, keeps a neutral rating on shares. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2022. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up by almost 1.3 basis points at 3.349% near 2 a.m. ET, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond saw an uptick of half a basis point to 3.599%. Job data released Tuesday showed vacancies fell below 10 million in February for the first time in nearly two years, pressuring Treasury yields as investors considered whether the information could deter the Fed from further rate hikes. The Fed is next scheduled to meet in early May, when the policy rate will likely rise by a further 25 basis points, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

☆ Gold at over one-year peak as weak U.S. data buoys demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday to touch their highest levels since March 2022 after weak U.S. economic data spurred safe-haven demand and expectations that the Federal Reserve might loosen its monetary policy trajectory. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,022.09 per ounce, as of 0355 GMT. Gold prices rallied 2% to cross $2,000 per ounce on Tuesday after another round of weaker U.S. economic data pointed to a slowing economy. Data showed U.S. job openings in February dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years, suggesting the labor market was cooling. Gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, but higher interest rates dim the appeal for non-yielding bullion.

☆ Gold hovers near 2020 record highs on softer dollar, weak US data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Alexander ManzyukApril 5 (Reuters) - Gold prices hovered near record highs seen in 2020, trading steady above the key $2,000 level on Wednesday, as the dollar eased after weak U.S. economic data fanned expectations that the Federal Reserve might loosen its monetary policy trajectory. FUNDAMENTALS* Spot gold held its ground at $2,020.39 per ounce, as of 0123 GMT. * Data showed U.S. job openings in February dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years, suggesting the labor market was cooling. * While gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, higher interest rates dim the appeal for non-yielding bullion. * Spot silver eased 0.1% to $24.99 per ounce, while platinum was 0.2% higher at $1,020.47 and palladium edged up 0.1% to $1,458.51.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Mounting recession concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 31: Skyscrapers loom over downtown Manhattan on March 31, 2022 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. We're seeing more signs that the U.S. economy is indeed slowing down following nine straight Federal Reserve rate hikes. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Dollar struggles near 2-month low on weak data, focus on RBNZ
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar was stuck near two-month lows on Wednesday as weak economic data bolstered views that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its monetary tightening cycle. The kiwi rose 0.08% to $0.632 ahead of a policy decision from Reserve Bank New Zealand later in the day. The central bank is expected to slow the pace of monetary tightening, raising rates by just 25 basis points. In the U.S. bond market, the two-year Treasury yield , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 1.4 basis points at 3.848%, after sliding 14 basis points on Tuesday. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 1.1 basis points to 3.348%, having slipped 9 basis points overnight.

☆ Fed will buckle and start cutting rates before year ends, says Komal Sri Kumar
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed will buckle and start cutting rates before year ends, says Komal Sri KumarKomal Sri Kumar, Sri-Kumar Global Strategies president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss how Sri Kumar takes Loretta Mester's recent comments on the federal funds rate, what the yield curve is telling investors and more.

☆ Futures edge higher as tech and growth stocks gain; focus on jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday, with investor attention shifting to demand trends and the impact of higher prices on the global economy. Energy firms Chevron Corp (CVX.N), Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) and Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY.N) were set to extend gains, rising between 0.5% and 0.9% premarket. Among stocks, Virgin Orbit Holdings Inc (VORB.O) tanked 25% after the satellite launch company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on failing to secure long-term funding. Etsy Inc (ETSY.O) gained 3.8% after Piper Sandler upgraded the consumer e-commerce platform's stock to "overweight". Reporting by Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets brush off OPEC as factories stall
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanRelatively calm world markets have brushed off OPEC's latest twist and focussed more squarely on stalled global manufacturing and edgy U.S.-China relations. Crude oil prices held much of Monday's pop higher on the surprise weekend production cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. But Brent crude remains below levels seen just before the Silicon Valley Bank bust last month and is still tracking year-on-year declines of 20%. Strikingly, both short and long-term inflation expectations embedded in the Treasury markets , have barely budged since the OPEC news. McCarthy, the third-most-senior U.S. leader after the president and vice president, is due to host a meeting in California on Wednesday with Tsai.

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