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☆ Critical inflation report could be the key to the week ahead, as the Fed meets
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Inflation and a hawkish Fed "I think the data can influence his press conference and how hawkish he is," said NatWest Markets' John Briggs. "If you get a higher CPI report on the back of that, it could create some significant market instability ahead of the Fed meeting." Recession fears "If you're more worried about recession than inflation, that means you bring in more bond buyers than sellers," he said. Retail sales, industrial production, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey as well as the Empire State manufacturing survey are released Thursday. Import prices 2:00 p.m. Fed statement and projections 2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefing Thursday Earnings: Adobe, Jabil 8:30 a.m.

NO ARCHIVESBEIJING, Dec 1 (Reuters) - China is softening its tone on the severity of COVID-19 and easing some coronavirus restrictions even as its daily case toll hovers near records, after anger over the world's toughest curbs morphed into protests across the country. Health experts warn of widespread illness and death if COVID is let loose before vaccination is ramped up. read moreWhile the recent change in tone over COVID appears to respond to the public discontent with the strictness of the measures, authorities are in parallel seeking out those who were present at the demonstrations. China Dissent Monitor, run by U.S. government-funded Freedom House, estimated at least 27 demonstrations took place across China from Saturday to Monday. Australia's ASPI think tank estimated 43 protests in 22 cities.

☆ China's factory activity shrinks in Nov amid widespread COVID curbs - Caixin PMI
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING, Dec 1 (Reuters) - China's factory activity shrank in November as widespread COVID-19 curbs disrupted manufacturers' output, a private sector survey showed on Thursday, weighing on employment and economic growth in the fourth quarter. But the reading marks the fourth monthly contraction in a row as the 50-point index mark separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. Analysts see mounting downside risks to China's economic growth in the fourth quarter despite a flurry of policies to shore up activity, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and support to rescue the sluggish property sector. Sub-indexes of factory output, employment and new export orders all fell at a sharper pace in November from October, the private Caixin survey showed. The Caixin manufacturing PMI centres on small firms and coastal regions, which includes a number of exporters.

☆ Asia's factory activity shrinks as China lockdown impact widens
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Amid the pandemic curbs, China's factory activity shrank in November, a private survey showed on Thursday. The figure followed downbeat data in an official survey on Wednesday that showed manufacturing activity had hit a seven-month low in November. South Korea's factory activity shrank for a fifth straight month in November but the downturn moderated slightly, possibly suggesting the worst was over for businesses. Lockdowns in China have hit production at a factory there that is the biggest producer of Apple Inc (AAPL.O) iPhones. Vietnam's PMI fell to 47.4 in November from 50.6 in October, while that for Indonesia slid to 50.3 from 51.8, the private surveys showed.

☆ Analysis: Apple supply chain data shows receding exposure to China as risks mount
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Josh Horwitz | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SHANGHAI, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Apple Inc's (AAPL.O) wide exposure to Chinese manufacturing, notable both for its low costs and rising risks, has receded since the COVID-19 pandemic began, company supply chain data shows. "The China supply chain is not going to evaporate overnight," said Eli Friedman, an associate professor at Cornell University who studies labour in China. The Apple supplier data to 2021, however, shows no locations so far that stand out as substantial gainers to match China's decline, according to the Reuters analysis. Apple's annual data covers more than 600 locations among its top suppliers, which represent 98% of Apple's direct spending. While Apple's shift from China is increasingly evident, including in its own supply chain data, so too are the risks from the concentration of operations there.

☆ Political Risk Returns to China and Looks Here to Stay
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Shortly after Chinese leader Xi Jinping reaffirmed his position at the pinnacle of Chinese political power, he faces what could be the biggest test of his tenure. The outcome could reshape how foreign multinationals operate in China, the flow of global manufacturing investment, and China’s relations with developed democracies. What is more, several fundamental factors leading to this moment are unlikely to fade for the foreseeable future.

☆ Political Risk Returns to China, and Looks Here to Stay
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Nathaniel Taplin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

☆ Aggressive central bank easing will return within 18 months, CIO says, naming stocks to buy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Overly loose fiscal and monetary policy during Covid-19 was a "mistake," according to the chief investment officer of asset management firm Antipodes Partners. I think, though, we're probably in a different regime where we have to expect greater volatility around not just inflation but economic growth," he said. So we think there's a fair amount of downside on the S & P EPS [earnings per share] numbers." "The digital industries business is a really good software-hardware factory automation business, and decarbonization is all about reengineering supply chains. So a lot of investment is required, and Siemens I think benefits from that," he said.

The rupee ended unchanged at 81.6850 per U.S. dollar last week. "Markets are sensing a softening of approach from the U.S. Federal Reserve and that's giving legs to risk assets. The benchmark 10-year bond yield finished flat at 7.3012% last week. It is expected to stay within a 7.25%-7.33% band this week, with a break below 7.25% considered highly unlikely, the trader said. Many Asian countries are scheduled to release manufacturing data, with China's factory activity data due Wednesday.

☆ Why the U.S. trails China in phone manufacturing
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-20 | by ( Sydney Boyo | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

It's the most commonly used device by Americans every day, but domestic tech companies don't seem to be investing in making these devices at home. China is the faraway leader in global manufacturing. While many tech companies have opted to manufacture products abroad, one U.S.-based company is defying conventional wisdom and building local. Purism makes the Librem 5 USA model phone, which is the only smartphone in the world with the "Made in USA" stamp. Watch the video to learn more about why the U.S. trails China in phone manufacturing.

☆ Markets are watching for more clues on Fed hikes and the economy in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Investors may be a bit more cautious in the week ahead, with stocks seeking direction in quiet trading and the bond market's warnings about recession getting louder. "That's going to cause its own pressure on markets because markets never look through a profit recession." In the past week, Fed officials maintained their tough tone and some even sounded more hawkish. A rallying stock market is a sign of looser financial conditions. "The stock market is complicating the Fed's objective," said Lyngen.

LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Container freight volumes at the largest U.S. ports were down 3.8% in September compared with the same month a year earlier, confirming the slackening of merchandise trade and downturn in the business cycle. The ports of New York-New Jersey, Los Angeles, Long Beach, Savannah, Houston, Norfolk, Charleston, Seattle and Oakland account for the overwhelming majority of container ocean freight into and out of the United States. Chartbook: U.S. container tradeFreight is reflecting a significant slowdown in consumer spending on merchandise over the last 12-15 months as economies have re-opened after the pandemic and spending has rotated to travel and other services. As the global manufacturing sector contracts, freight volumes are likely to shrink further, which will eventually relieve some of the pressure on diesel fuel supplies. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Oil prices dip on U.S. inventory build, China COVID worries
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Isabel Kua | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude futures fell 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $95.27 a barrel by 0727 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 20 cents, or 0.2%, to $88.71 a barrel. CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said despite tight supply in the physical markets, China's slowdown in demand has a major impact on the oil futures markets. In another bearish sign, API data showed gasoline inventories rose by about 2.6 million barrels, against analysts' forecasts for a 1.1 million drawdown. "In addition to ongoing OPEC+ supply cuts, Russian oil supply should fall as the EU ban on Russian crude and refined products comes into effect," ING commodities strategists said in a note. The EU will ban Russian crude imports by Dec. 5 and Russian oil products by Feb. 5, in retaliation to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Brent crude futures fell 44 cents, or 0.5%, to $94.92 a barrel by 0454 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 53 cents, or 0.6%, to $88.38 a barrel. CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said despite tight supply in the physical markets, China's slowdown in demand has a major impact on the oil futures markets. In another bearish sign, API data showed gasoline inventories rose by about 2.6 million barrels, against analysts' forecasts for a 1.1 million drawdown. Meanwhile, supply concerns remain as a European Union ban on Russian crude looms and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, or OPEC+, cuts output. The EU will ban Russian crude imports by Dec. 5 and Russian oil products by Feb. 5, in retaliation to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

☆ Oil prices fall as China demand, recession concerns outweigh supply woes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Isabel Kua | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Tuesday as recession concerns and worsening COVID-19 outbreaks in China sparked fears of lower fuel demand, outweighing supply worries. Brent crude fell 31 cents, or 0.3%, to $97.61 a barrel by 0434 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 36 cents, or 0.4%, to $91.43 a barrel. COVID cases sharply escalated in Guangzhou and other major Chinese cities, official data showed on Tuesday. A firmer greenback also weighed on oil prices. "This, along with a slowdown in China fuel demand, are reasons for the pull-back in oil futures prices in the past few months."

☆ Morning Bid: Midterms vigil and new crypto wobble
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Tuesday's U.S. mid-term elections held world markets in thrall and investors now assume policy gridlock will emerge as the winner. With a critical U.S. inflation reading due on Thursday, there was some attention on San Francisco Fed research showing credit across the economy is tighter than the Fed's policy rate suggests and financial conditions by September were more reflective of a 5.25% policy rate than the current 3.75%-4%. FTX token , the native token of crypto exchange FTX, plunged 20% amid a range of reports and speculation that dragged the whole crypto complex lower and saw drop 5%. FTX has come under pressure after the head of rival exchange Binance said on Sunday his firm would liquidate its holdings of the FTX token due to unspecified "recent revelations".

☆ Guangzhou's COVID outbreak deepens as more lockdowns loom in China
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The increase was modest by global standards but significant for China, where outbreaks are quickly tackled when they surface. Guangzhou, capital of Guangdong province, reported 2,377 new local cases for Nov. 7, up from 1,971 the previous day. "The lockdown situation has continued to deteriorate quickly across the country over the past week, with our in-house China COVID lockdown index rising to 12.2% of China's total GDP from 9.5% last Monday," Nomura wrote in a note on Monday. "We continue to believe that, while Beijing may fine-tune some of its COVID measures in coming weeks, those fine-tuning measures could be more than offset by local officials' tightening of the zero-COVID strategy." In the southwest metropolis of Chongqing, the city reported 281 new local cases, more than doubling from 120 a day earlier.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)’s authoritative Business Cycle Dating Committee itself uses a two-part classification – “expansion” and “contraction”. Growth in business activity tends to accelerate and decelerate; outright declines in the level of activity are relatively rare. UNDECLARED RECESSIONSThe NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee formally declared only six recessions between 1980 and the end of 2020. They were periods of little or no growth in an otherwise uninterrupted business cycle expansion and tend to be forgotten. Mid-cycle slowdowns also reset the economy by easing capacity constraints and relieving upward pressure on prices and wages.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Tuesday that its manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in October from 50.9 in September. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI stood at 49.2 in October, up from 48.1 in September. The private sector survey was in line with an official PMI released on Monday that showed China's factory activity unexpectedly fell in October. Japan's au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.7 in October from September's 50.8 final, marking the weakest growth since January last year. India was an outlier with factory activity expanding at a stronger pace in October as demand remained solid.

☆ Asia's factory output weakens on global slowdown, China COVID curbs
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The private sector survey was in line with an official PMI survey released on Monday that showed China's factory activity unexpectedly fell in October. Japan's au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.7 in October from September's 50.8 final, marking the weakest growth since January last year. South Korea's factory activity shrank for a fourth month in October as orders for exports fell for an eighth month, the PMI showed. That followed data that showed South Korea's exports fell the most in 26 months with shipments to China, its largest market, extending declines. Factory activity in Indonesia expanded at a slower pace in October with the PMI standing at 51.8, down from 53.7 in September.

☆ China's Oct factory activity shrinks as COVID curbs hit output, demand - Caixin PMI
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) stood at 49.2 in October, up from 48.1 in September and slightly above analysts' expectations for 49.0. In line with China's official PMI, which unexpectedly fell into contraction last month, waning factory activity weighed on the fragile recovery of the world's second-biggest economy amid a deepening property crisis and weakening demand. The softer activity continued to pressure the labour market as the manufacturing employment fell for the seventh month in a row. "In particular, the spread of the coronavirus in many regions significantly restricts both supply and demand," Wang said. The Caixin manufacturing PMI centres on small firms and coastal regions where sit a great number of exporters.

☆ Irish manufacturing sector posts slow growth in October - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

DUBLIN, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Ireland's manufacturing sector posted modest growth in October as demand remained weak, a survey showed on Tuesday. The AIB S&P Global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slipped to 51.4 in October from 51.5 the previous month, hovering above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. Ireland outperformed the wider euro zone's flash manufacturing PMI, which last week slipped to 46.6. The survey showed the output subindex returning to expansion for the first time in five months while the contraction in new orders eased. Writing by Conor Humphries; Editing by Hugh LawsonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ The Fed could lay the groundwork for a year end rally in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The coming week is also the busiest of the corporate earnings season, with about a third of the S & P 500 companies releasing results. "Historically, the market waits for the last Fed rate hike to be introduced and then the market climbs higher. The S & P 500 was up more than 8.8% for the month. The Dow was up 5.7% on the week, the S & P 500 was up 5.7% and the Nasdaq was up 2.2%. The 50-day moving average is 3,841 for the S & P 500, and it was well above it Friday afternoon for the second time in the past week.

☆ GM investing $760 million in Toledo factory to make electric car drive units
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Peter Valdes-Dapena | Cnn Business | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

(CNN) General Motors is investing $760 million in its Toledo Propulsion Systems factory, which builds transmissions for gas-powered vehicles, so that it can make electric drive units for electric vehicles, too. The drive units will be used in GM electric trucks, the automaker said, including the GMC Hummer EV, which is currently in production, and the upcoming Chevrolet Silverado EV and GMC Sierra EV. It will be GM's first US engine or transmission factory adapted for electric vehicle-related production. Electric drive units include an electric motor, one-speed transmission and power electronics that bring power to and from the motor. For the now, at least, the factory will continue building transmissions for front- and rear-wheel-drive gas-powered vehicles along with the electric drive units, GM spokesman Dan Flores said.

☆ GM to invest $760 million to shift Ohio plant to EV-part production
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe new GM logo is seen on the facade of the General Motors headquarters in Detroit, Michigan, U.S., March 16, 2021. REUTERS/Rebecca CookToledo, OHIO/WASHINGTON, Sept 23 (Reuters) - General Motors Co (GM.N) said Friday it will invest $760 million at its Toledo, Ohio factory to build drive units for electric trucks, the automaker's first U.S. powertrain facility repurposed for EV-related production. Congress in August approved significant financial incentives for automakers to convert plants producing parts for gasoline-pore vehicles to electric models. Many autoworkers have expressed concerns about the shift to EVs and if it would impact current auto employment. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by David Shepardson and Joseph White Editing by Nick ZieminskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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