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☆ 'Recession is a done deal': A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns a deep and long downturn will destroy corporate profit margins — setting stocks up for disaster
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

But as data continues to come out in the months ahead, Edwards says to pay attention to details beneath the headline numbers. Sure enough, revisions to February and March numbers reported on Friday paint a picture of a weakening labor market. "I think the recession will lead to a collapse in margins and profits and do a lot of damage." In terms of his view on the labor market, Edwards has company in Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. But bulls do remain, and they're betting on a scenario where inflation continues to come down — it hit 5% in March, down from its 9.1% peak last year — and the labor market remains intact.

☆ PacWest Stock Surges 80%, Regional Banks Recover After Selloff
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Gina Heeb | Joe Wallace | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The FDIC seized First Republic Bank early Monday and struck a deal to sell the bulk of its operations to JPMorgan Chase. WSJ’s Ben Eisen explains what led to the bank’s failure and what it means for customers, investors and the industry. Illustration: Preston JesseeShares of under-fire regional banks surged to recover some of their lost ground on Friday, though many were still on track to end the week nursing hefty losses. Bankers and government officials hoped the sale of First Republic Bank to JPMorgan Chase on Monday would draw a line under upheaval from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March. But investors continued to hunt for weak links for much of the week, dumping shares of midsize and smaller banks.

☆ First Republic Bank Will Be Missed…For Its Free Umbrellas
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Annamaria Andriotis | Ben Eisen | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Ed Beardsworth got a tall box in the mail about two years ago. Inside was a sturdy umbrella with a First Republic Bank logo on it. The gift, showered upon him for opening his accounts, put a pep in his step. Carrying it around “makes me feel like a proper Englishman,” said Mr. Beardsworth, who lives in Palo Alto, Calif.

☆ PacWest Stock Surges 82%, Regional Banks Recover After Selloff
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Gina Heeb | Joe Wallace | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The FDIC seized First Republic Bank early Monday and struck a deal to sell the bulk of its operations to JPMorgan Chase. WSJ’s Ben Eisen explains what led to the bank’s failure and what it means for customers, investors and the industry. Illustration: Preston JesseeShares of under-fire regional banks surged to recover some of their lost ground on Friday, though many still ended the week nursing hefty losses. Bankers and government officials hoped the sale of First Republic Bank to JPMorgan Chase on Monday would draw a line under upheaval from the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March. But investors continued to hunt for weak links for much of the week, dumping shares of midsize and smaller banks.

☆ Biden’s Big Bank Contradiction
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Today the roles have reversed, with Democrats refusing to negotiate, preferring to smear the 'MAGA Republican' opposition as 'extreme.' Images: Zuma Press/AFP via Getty Images Composite: Mark KellyRegional banks took another market drubbing on Thursday, as the financial panic rolls on despite regulatory assurances that all is well. The turmoil wasn’t helped Thursday when midsize TD Bank and First Horizon Bank called off their merger, blaming regulatory impediments. The merger cancellation followed the Biden Administration’s decision on Monday to give JPMorgan a sweetheart deal to acquire failed First Republic Bank . It’s good to be a really, really big bank these days.

☆ First Republic Bank executives' trading probed by SEC investigators - Bloomberg News
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

May 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating the conduct of First Republic Bank executives before the government seizure and sale to JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), Bloomberg News reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. The SEC is looking into whether any members of the then-executive team of First Republic improperly traded on inside information, according to the report. Senator Elizabeth Warren accused First Republic executives of "mismanagement" in a letter to its former CEO Micahel Roffler and raised questions on the failed lender's risk management as well as pay and bonuses. Regulators seized troubled First Republic Bank and JPMorgan agreed to buy majority of its assets earlier this week, marking the largest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. JPMorgan declined to comment, while First Republic and SEC did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment.

☆ PacWest and Other Regional Bank Stocks Rise Premarket
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Shares of under-fire regional banks recovered a little lost ground in premarket trading Friday, though they were still on track to end the week nursing hefty losses. Bankers and government officials hoped the sale of First Republic Bank to JPMorgan Chase would draw a line under the crisis that began with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

☆ Premarket stocks: This is how the banking crisis ends
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

London CNN —US regional bank stocks look set to rebound Friday but are still down sharply this week, accentuating fears that federal regulators have not yet contained a crisis in the sector that could shake the financial system. Breaking it down: Wall Street is on the hunt for any signs of vulnerability in the banking system after the high-profile demise of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank in a matter of weeks. While authorities stepped in to protect depositors at those banks, investors were left with stocks that were suddenly worthless. “I believe it really only ends after we get some type of government intervention,” Michaud told me. The value of short positions in regional bank stocks reached $15.1 billion in mid-April, up from about $13.7 billion one year ago, according to data from S3 Partners.

☆ Fed's Goolsbee: 'way too premature' to expect June rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

"We know that credit conditions like the ones we are seeing now in the past have been correlated with recessions, credit crunches," Goolsbee told Fox News. "It's way too premature to know what to do with monetary policy." Goolsbee voted with all other Fed policymakers on Wednesday to raise the Fed's policy rate by a quarter point to 5.00%-5.25%. Goolsbee on Friday said he is paying particular attention to credit conditions, given the recent failure of First Republic Bank and the troubles of other regional banks. "It has to give you some pause" about raising rates, he said, because tighter credit conditions are likely to slow the economy.

The latest case in point: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) chose JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) as the winning bidder in an auction to buy collapsed lender First Republic Bank on Monday. FDIC officials, however, say would-be buyers risk losing out if they allow the value of an acquisition target to deteriorate over time while waiting for an FDIC receivership. SWEETENERSU.S. bank mergers were already sluggish as interest rates rose and recession loomed, analysts at Raymond James wrote in an Apr. The first quarter was the quietest opening to a year for bank deals in a generation, they said. Market volatility stops bank buyers from pulling together enough money to cover writedowns on struggling assets, which would be triggered by a traditional acquisition, said David Sandler, co-head of financial services investment banking at Piper Sandler Companies (PIPR.N).

☆ Banking 'cancer' may be spreading as otherwise healthy firms seem vulnerable and credit gets pulled from the economy, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Banking sector "cancer" is starting to spread, Mohamed El-Erian said. Other regional lenders have shown signs of weakness after First Republic Bank failed this week. Widespread contagion would turn the banking situation into a true crisis, El-Erian warned. "The cancer within them is starting to spread, and we've got to keep an eye on that," he added. Credit conditions are also beginning to tighten, and the risks of further contraction go up as banking contagion spreads.

☆ US regional lenders eke out gains after brutal sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 5 (Reuters) - Shares of U.S. regional lenders rose in premarket trading on Friday following a brutal sell-off during the week that saw First Republic Bank collapse and peer PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) explore strategic options. The KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) has plunged about 31% this year as the sector grapples with deepening investor concerns with billions in market value wiped in recent weeks. PacWest, whose shares have plummeted 86% this year, said late on Wednesday it was in talks with potential partners and investors as it weighs strategic options. Shares of the bank plunged to close down 33%. Reporting by Manya Saini in Bengaluru; additional reporting by Amruta Khandekar Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ U.S. bankers urge SEC to probe short sales, reduce 'abusive' trading
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"We urge the SEC to consider all its existing tools and to take measures to reduce the avenues for abusive trading practices and restore investor confidence," the group said. "These measures include, at a minimum, a clear message and appropriate enforcement actions against market manipulation and other abusive short selling practices." Short sellers raked in $378.9 million in paper profits on Thursday alone from betting against certain regional banks, according to analytics firm Ortex. ABA President and CEO Rob Nichols told Gensler that short selling could be a legitimate financial tool, but his group was "unalterably opposed to short selling practices that distort the markets through manipulation and abuse." He called on Gensler to send a clear message to market players and take appropriate enforcement action against market manipulation and other abusive short selling practices.

☆ Mario Gabelli, John Rogers, and 3 other Warren Buffett experts just weighed in on the banking turmoil, pressure on house prices, and some of the investor's biggest bets. Here are their 10 best quotes.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Five experts on Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway spoke ahead of this year's annual meeting. Mario Gabelli, John Rogers, Chris Bloomstran, Adam Mead, and Todd Finkle discussed the conglomerate. Todd Finkle, the author of "Warren Buffett: Investor and Entrepreneur," emphasized the unique nature of Berkshire's yearly gathering, which attracts tens of thousands of people from around the world. Meanwhile, Adam Mead, the author of "The Complete Financial History of Berkshire Hathaway," touted the underlying value of Berkshire Hathaway Energy, and the savvy structure of Buffett's conglomerate. "Berkshire Hathaway Energy is going to become a powerhouse over the next decade.

☆ The stock market could become 'untouchable' if the regional banking crisis continues to spiral, Fundstrat says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market could become "untouchable" if the regional banking crisis continues to spiral out of control. "This raises too many tail risk issues including credit tightening, commercial real estate, and wide economic implications," Lee said. Lee's cause for concern about the banking crisis and the chilling effect it could have on the stock market is based on the type of risks that could percolate if the instability continues. "This raises too many tail risk issues including credit tightening, commercial real estate and wide economic implications," Lee explained. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF surged more than 6% on Friday, suggesting that the regional banking crisis could ultimately be contained without spilling over into a bigger problem for the stock market.

☆ Take Five: Sell in May?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The services component of the price data can gauge demand, but consumer and producer price data broadly paint a picture of deflation. April inflation data is out Thursday. At 10.1%, UK inflation is the highest in Western Europe. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics4/ SELL IN MAYConventional wisdom has it that May is the ideal point to take profit on equities and lay low until later in the year. "Sell in May and go away" is based on the premise that the best six-month period of the year for stock market returns is November to April, while the leanest is May to October.

☆ How the April Jobs Report Could Change Inflation and Recession Fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Dion Rabouin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

E63First Republic’s Failure and What to Watch This Week What’s next as First Republic Bank is sold to JPMorgan? Also, the Fed meets two days before the latest U.S. nonfarm payrolls report and right in the middle of a slew of earnings reports. WSJ's Dion Rabouin explains. Photo: Brendan McDermid/Reuters

☆ Stocks Rally to Cap Tumultuous Week
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Jack Pitcher | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Shares of online used-car seller Carvana surged after it posted results. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesStocks ripped higher Friday on the back of an upbeat jobs report, capping a tumultuous week that saw regional bank stocks buckle even after JPMorgan Chase swooped in to buy failing First Republic Bank and the Federal Reserve chairman said the banking system was sound. Risk appetite returned after Apple , the largest U.S. company by market value, reported first-quarter results that exceeded analyst expectations after the closing bell Thursday. Apple shares rallied 4.7%, helping to snap the S&P 500’s four-day losing streak.

☆ Shares rise, dollar weakens on bank sector fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, May 5 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose, the dollar eased and gold hovered around its record highs on Friday, as jittery investors remained nervous about the U.S. banking sector following another rout in shares of regional lenders. Wall Street ended lower on Thursday after Los Angeles-based PacWest Bancorp's (PACW.O) move to explore strategic options deepened fears about the health of U.S. lenders as pressure grows on regulators to take more steps to shore up the country's banking sector. Shares of U.S. regional banks sank this week in the wake of the collapse of First Republic Bank over the weekend that has brought back fears of a financial sector crisis. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates by 25 basis points, but hinted that its marathon hiking cycle may be ending. China shares (.SSEC) rose 0.21%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) was up 0.6%, helping lift the region's shares.

☆ PacWest and Other Regional Bank Stocks Soar in Early Trading
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Shares of under-fire regional banks recovered some of their lost ground in early trading Friday, though they were still on track to end the week nursing hefty losses. Bankers and government officials hoped the sale of First Republic Bank to JPMorgan Chase would draw a line under the crisis that began with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

☆ US officials are looking into possible market manipulation of regional bank stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US and state officials are assessing whether market manipulation is driving volatility in regional bank stocks, Reuters reported. A banking association is asking the SEC to stop short-bets on bank stocks. The Securities and Exchange Commission calls market manipulation "intentional or willful conduct designed to deceive or defraud investors by controlling or artificially affecting the price of securities." The American Bankers Association is urging the SEC to stop short bets in regional bank stocks. Short sellers pulled in nearly $400 million on Thursday from the sell-off in regional bank stocks, according to data from financial analytics platform Ortex.

☆ PacWest and the Bank Confidence Genie
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Aaron Back | Telis Demos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The FDIC seized First Republic Bank early Monday and struck a deal to sell the bulk of its operations to JPMorgan Chase. WSJ’s Ben Eisen explains what led to the bank’s failure and what it means for customers, investors and the industry. Illustration: Preston JesseePacWest Bancorp is the latest lender to face an investor panic. What is becoming clear is that investors aren’t willing to give some banks much credit beyond the bare minimum. The immediate trigger for Thursday’s selloff in PacWest and other regional bank stocks appeared to be a Bloomberg story Wednesday afternoon saying the California lender is looking at “strategic options,” including a sale or breakup.

☆ Regional-Bank Shares Dive as Investors Fret About Contagion
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Gina Heeb | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

WSJ’s Ben Eisen explains what led to First Republic Bank’s failure and what it means for customers, investors and the industry. Illustration: Preston JesseeRegional-bank stocks tumbled Thursday morning despite assurances from the Federal Reserve that the banking system is on solid footing. PacWest Bancorp , which has been hit hard since regional banks started wavering in March, fell a record 42% after the market opened. The stock started falling in after-hours trading Wednesday evening, after a report that it was considering selling itself.

May 4 (Reuters) - Canadian lender Toronto-Dominion Bank Group (TD.TO) has called off its deal to acquire First Horizon Corp (FHN.N) for $13.4 billion on Thursday, sending the U.S. bank's shares down 44.5% in premarket trading. As part of the termination, TD will pay $200 million to First Horizon in addition to a $25 million fee reimbursement, the banks said. TD first agreed to buy First Horizon in February last year to expand its presence in the United States. Since then, the lender has acquired New York-based boutique investment bank Cowen Inc for $1.3 billion this year. ORTEX data from early last month showed the second-largest Canadian lender was the world's most shorted banking stock.

☆ US regional bank PacWest says in talks with potential partners, investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

May 4 (Reuters) - PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) said on Thursday that it has been approached by several potential partners and investors, and that those talks are ongoing as it continues to evaluate all options to maximize shareholder value. The Los Angeles-based lender said it has explored strategic asset sales, including moving its $2.7 billion lender finance loan portfolio to held-for-sale. PacWest said its cash and available liquidity remains "solid" and has exceeded its uninsured deposits, representing 188% as of May 2. The bank said it has not experienced out-of-the-ordinary deposit flows following the sale of First Republic Bank to JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N). PacWest's core customer deposits increased since March 31, with deposits totaling $28 billion as of May 2, the company said in a statement.

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