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The former Treasury Secretary told Bloomberg TV that the central bank's interest rate strategy has largely succeeded, even though Fed officials made a major blunder by first underestimating pandemic-era inflation. In 2021, the Fed mischaracterized inflation as "transitory," citing that COVID supply chain disruptions would eventually blow away. Once central bankers grew to understand that inflation needed an interest rate response, the Fed initiated the most aggressive policy-tightening campaign in recent history. In that period, Summers often showcased skepticism that the Fed could clamp down on inflation this way without economic consequences. AdvertisementNow, the main question is how far interest rates could fall during the Fed's September meeting.
Persons: , Larry Summers, Summers, I've, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business, Fed
And so does the broader US economy: Economic growth this year has been solid and the Atlanta Fed is projecting that growth hasn’t slipped. “The labor market is cooling, but it’s not getting soft. A slowing job market is also playing a role in nudging the Fed to ease borrowing costs. Translation: The recent weakness in the job market could result in American shoppers curbing their spending more than expected. A big question mark is the future of America’s job market, which is a key driver of the US economy.
Persons: Washington CNN —, , Jerome Powell, , “ Powell, Seema Shah, hasn’t, ” Tom Porcelli, it’s, Powell, cooldown, ” Powell, aren’t, they’re, , “ There’s, Elizabeth Renter Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Fed, Markets, Asset Management, Atlanta Fed, Treasury, CNN, Walmart, America’s Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, nudging
Read previewDealmakers have always been the stars of private equity. AdvertisementKevin Desai, partner and private equity sector leader at PwC PWCBut in the current climate, portfolio-operations professionals are gaining esteem. AdvertisementPrivate equity 3.0Rising interest rates nearly two and a half years ago ushered in a new economic reality that hit private equity firms right in the pocket. Since private equity relies on debt to boost returns, the first option is off the table. These people are taking their talents to private equity firms to manage smaller companies using an already proven playbook for technological transformation.
Persons: , you've, Marc Rowan, Rowan, Kevin Desai, Desai, I've, What's, they're, quants, we've Organizations: Service, Business, PricewaterhouseCoopers, University of Chicago, Walmart, Nike, Harvard Business Locations: dealmaking
It appears to have taken a few weeks for current homeowners to realize mortgage rates had dropped dramatically. Applications to refinance a home loan surged 35% last week, compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index. While rates dropped just 1 basis point last week, they were down 33 basis points in the past four weeks. They were also 62 basis points lower than the same week a year ago. Mortgage rates started this week essentially flat, but that could change with the release of the government's monthly inflation report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Persons: Joel Kan, Matthew Graham Organizations: Woodland, Lifestyle Homes, Mortgage, FHA, Index, Mortgage News Locations: Cold Springs , Nevada
That waiting game has only intensified with a potential interest rate cut in sight. "What our customers tell their pros is, 'Everything I read tells me interest rates will be lower in three to six months,'" McPhail said. An interest rate cut could help move the needle for Home Depot as sales slow. The Federal Reserve has dropped hints that an interest rate cut could come soon. Even with an interest rate cut, Decker said, "people still might pause a little bit until some of this gets sorted out."
Persons: Richard McPhail, McPhail, Ted Decker, Jerome Powell, Decker, , Diana Olick Organizations: Federal, CNBC, Depot, Mortgage News Locations: El Cerrito , California
As the Fed lowers its benchmark rate, mortgage rates are expected to decrease further. This would likely remove a substantial amount of upward pressure off of mortgage rates. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates fell to 5.63% last week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates increased dramatically over the last two years, but they're expected to go down at some point this year.
Persons: they're, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Traders, Zillow Locations: Chevron
Oil prices were little changed in early Asian trading on Monday, holding on to most of last week's more than 3% gains, supported by geopolitical tensions and better economic data. Oil prices were little changed in early Asian trading on Monday, holding on to most of last week's more than 3% gains, supported by geopolitical tensions and better economic data. "Traders remain mindful of simmering tensions in the Middle East," ANZ analysts said in a note. Brent ended last week up more than 3.5% on the week, while WTI gained more than 4%, on supportive economic data and increased hopes of a U.S. interest rate cut. China's consumer prices rose faster than expected in July, and U.S. weekly jobless claims fell more than expected last week.
Persons: Ismail Haniyeh, Fuad Shukr, Israel, Brent, WTI Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, ANZ, Gaza Civil Emergency Service, Federal Reserve Locations: Iran, Gaza, U.S
Five years after the series finale of "Game of Thrones," Kit Harington is reflecting on his time with the massively popular series — and he thinks that season eight could have gone a bit better. In a GQ profile tied to his role in "Industry," which returned on Sunday, Harington also reflected on his time with "Game of Thrones." "Everyone is entitled to their opinion," Harington told GQ. Harington told GQ that HBO came to him about the prospect of a spinoff. And so I understand some people thought it was rushed and I might agree with them," Harington told GQ.
Persons: Kit Harington, Harington, GQ, Jon Snow, Jon Snow's, that's, I'm Organizations: Service, Apple, Business, Sunday, HBO Locations: London
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Deutsche Bank upgraded Eli Lilly to a buy from hold rating on Monday after a blowout quarterly earnings report last week. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Eli Lilly, We've, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Federal, The Club, Management, Amazon Web Services, Deutsche Bank, Novo Nordisk
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street.
Persons: Jim Cramer, It's, Blackwell, Nvidia's, Eaton, Paulo Ruiz, Ruiz, Craig Arnold, Arnold, We're, Stanley Black, Decker, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Treasury, Nvidia, UBS, Club, Fed, PPI, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: York
Yen slips, markets brace for U.S. inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Last week ended calmer, with Thursday's stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data leading markets to pare bets for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. "It's more a case of market squaring up a little bit ahead of the U.S. inflation data," said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore. The dollar was trading at 146.87 yen , up 0.2% from late U.S. levels on Friday. The Aussie was barely up at $0.6577 on Monday, while the New Zealand dollar stayed below last week's three-week high of $0.6035. Implied volatility on the yen, measured in yen options, has also subsided.
Persons: Bank of Japan's hawkishness, Jackson, Christopher Wong, J.P, Morgan Organizations: Bank of Japan's, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, OCBC Bank, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Bank, Japan, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission Locations: U.S, Singapore, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Joe Raedle | Getty ImagesThe president has no direct control over interest ratesAs it stands, the president exerts no direct control over interest rates. The Federal Reserve sets interest rates, and it operates independently of the White House. Last month, Trump said that if elected he would "bring interest rates way down." Now, however, Trump has cautioned against the Fed lowering rates shortly before the presidential election in November. "I think he's going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates."
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Raedle, Brett House, Trump, Fed Trump, Jerome Powell, Trump's, reappoint Powell, Powell, Greg McBride, Wells Fargo Organizations: Federal Reserve, White, Fed, Columbia Business School, Reserve Act, Republican, National Association of Black Journalists, Markets, U.S, Bloomberg Businessweek, Fox Business, Barclays Locations: Lago, Palm Beach , Florida, Chicago
Commodity prices have tumbled over the past month, signaling underlying weakness in the global economy despite the U.S. stock market bouncing back from recession fears. But commodity markets may be telling a different story about the global economy. The Invesco DB Base Metals Fund is down more than 7% over the past month, while crude oil futures dropped 14% from July 5 through Aug. 5. @HG.1 YTD mountain Copper futures, YTD Weakness in China, the world's second-largest economy, is weighing on copper and oil in particular, Melek said. OPEC on Monday lowered its global oil demand growth forecast this year by 135,000 barrels per day as expectations in China have softened.
Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Bart Melek, DBB @HG, We've, Melek, I'm Organizations: U.S, Investors, Invesco DB Base Metals, Wolfe Research, TD Securities, DBB, Metals, Copper, CNBC, Global, Beijing, European Union, World Trade Organization, Federal Reserve, Securities Locations: U.S, China, Beijing, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Mortgage rates are down today compared to where they've been in recent weeks, with 30-year mortgage rates hovering in the low 6% range, according to Zillow data. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesLast week, average 15-year mortgage rates were 5.63%, a 36-basis-point decrease from the previous week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates have been elevated for most of 2024, but they've been trending down in recent months. Once the Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates should fall even further.
Persons: they've, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: July's, CPI, Federal Reserve, Zillow Locations: Chevron
Looking back, quarterly earnings also played a key role in big stock moves for the portfolio. Looking ahead, we'll see an update on some key inflation data, plus a closer look at the state of the housing and retail sectors. ET: Producer Price Index Earnings: Home Depot (HD), Pandora (PANDY), Nu Holdings (NU), Sea Limited (SE) Wednesday, August 14 8:30 a.m. ET: Consumer Price Index Earnings: Tencent Holdings (TCEHY), Cisco (CSCO), UBS (UBS), JD.com (JD) Thursday, August 15 8:30 a.m. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Walt, Jim Cramer, we've, JD.com, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow, Nasdaq, Walt Disney, Microsoft, Ford Motor, Wynn Resorts, DuPont, Devices, Procter, Gamble, Club, Abbott Laboratories, Federal, Traders, Sun Life, Nu Holdings, Sea, Tencent Holdings, Cisco, UBS, Philadelphia Fed, Walmart, Materials, Deere & Co, Ross Stores, Lenovo, Housing, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: U.S, Dover, Wells Fargo, Nextracker, Eaton
Mortgage rates fell dramatically this week, with 30-year mortgage rates even briefly dipping below 6% for the first time since early 2023, according to Zillow data. This should remove a lot of the upward pressure off of mortgage rates and allow them to ease. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. As inflation slows and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are expected to drop.
Persons: they've, Fannie Mae Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, ARM Locations: Chevron
JPMorgan's message has become the talk of Wall Street as everyone from recruiters to junior bankers tries to figure out what it might mean for them. Here are 4 ways JPMorgan's missive could impact Wall Street, from private-equity recruiting to junior bankers who fear of losing their jobs and more. But JPMorgan's warning that coming forward could get one fired leaves junior bankers in a damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don't scenario. Advertisement"I think probably the biggest impact is going to be on current bankers and prospective bankers," he said. Do you work on Wall Street?
Persons: , Chase, it's, JPMorgan, It's, Anthony Keizner, who's, Keizner, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, I'd, Emmalyse, Reed Alexander Organizations: Service, Business, JPMorgan, Wall, Search, Bankers, BI, Citigroup, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Barclays Locations: Instagram, New York
The recent unwinding of the yen "carry trade" could remain a long-term headwind amid already turbulent markets. JPY= YTD mountain The Japanese yen's appreciation against the U.S. dollar marked the unwinding of the so-called carry trade. "There's still quite a significant yen short position out there," Osborne said. He estimates that there is still a roughly $15 billion yen short position through July 30, still to be covered. In other words, that short position could drive more strength in the yen as that position is covered.
Persons: , Shaun Osborne, Osborne, Everyone's, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, FedWatch, Ben Emons Organizations: Bank of, U.S, Scotiabank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Wolfe Research, Swiss Locations: Bank of Japan, Japan
Global inflation could see a resurgence as the Olympics and Taylor Swift concerts drive demand. Mega-events tend to spike hotel and transportation costs, UBS said. Inflation in Europe and the US has cooled, but central bankers are still wary. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementGlobal inflation could see a fresh resurgence thanks to a spending spree fueled by Taylor Swift concerts and the Olympics, UBS said.
Persons: Taylor Swift, Organizations: UBS, Service, Olympics, Business Locations: Europe
Average 30-year mortgage rates dropped 26 basis points to 6.47%, their lowest level since May 2023, according to Freddie Mac. If today's mortgage rates are lower than the rate you're currently paying, refinancing could be worth it. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowToday's refinance ratesMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. Now that inflation has decelerated and a Fed cut is looking more likely, mortgage rates have trended down. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
Persons: Freddie Mac, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's, you'll, Fannie Mae Organizations: Zillow, Mortgage, Association, Sky Locations: Chevron
After 2 seasons under the radar, 'Industry' is poised for its breakout seasonHarper (Myha'la) has a new role in season three of "Industry." With the "Summer of the Finance Bro" in full swing, could this be the season "Industry" finally cuts through the noise? AdvertisementWorking in finance didn't prepare the 'Industry' cocreators for running a TV setMickey Down and Konrad Kay on the set of "Industry" season three. But they were delighted to hear from some cast and crew members who told them how much they enjoyed working on season three. "I really credit finance with pushing me towards it, because it's the polar opposite of finance in some respects," Down says.
Persons: , Mickey Down, I'm, Harper, Simon Ridgway, Konrad Kay, thrums, Bro, Kay, didn't, Jami O'Brien, They're, Yasmin, Marisa Abela, inflicts, Indy Lewis, Kenny, Conor MacNeill, Henry Muck, Kit Harington, intertwines, HBO Rich, you'd, who's, Jamie O'Brien Organizations: Service, Business, HBO, Rotten, Venetia Locations: London
The Federal Reserve is gearing up to cut interest rates as soon as next month, which could bring relief to people with mortgages, credit cards and car loans. Certificates of deposit — fixed-rate bank accounts with term limits — are a go-to when interest rates are high. With interest rates coming down, the idea is just pay and save as much as you can right now. There’s no bad time to do that, but when the central bank lowers interest rates, it can be even more valuable. “It’s tempting to say, ‘Well, when interest rates go down, stocks are going to do well, because people are switching from low-return to higher-return assets,’” she said.
Persons: Mark Hamrick, , , Hamrick, Rodney Lake, Laura Veldkamp, Veldkamp, Jude Boudreaux, now’s, ” Jude Boudreaux, you’re, ” Boudreaux, ” DON’T, Jonathan Smoke, Cox, Edmunds, Ivan Drury Organizations: Federal, GW Investment, George Washington University School of Business, Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business, Chipping, Columbia Business, Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, Fed Locations: U.S, Orleans, New Orleans, Edmunds
Financial-services firms risk the wrath of the Securities and Exchange Commission if their employees make campaign contributions to state or local officials such as Walz. Donating to the campaign would violate the regulator's "pay-to-play" rule, which keeps firms from trying to sway politicians for favors such as managing their state's pension fund. Those employees are also required to get permission to donate to the Harris-Walz campaign. It is possible to sidestep the pay-to-play rule by donating to PACs or Super PACs that aren't directly tied to the relevant candidate. "The Pay-to-Play Rule, although well-intentioned, imposes unique, unquantifiable costs on individuals by impeding their ability to participate in the political process."
Persons: , Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Tim Walz, Walz, Harris, Donald Trump's, Wells, Mike Pence, Pershing, Patricia Crouse, Crouse, aren't, Hester Peirce Organizations: Service, Street, for Responsive, Democrat, Minnesota Gov, Financial, Securities and Exchange Commission, Business, Citigroup, Citi, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Trump, Pershing, SEC, University of New Locations: Wells Fargo, Indiana, Massachusetts, Tallahassee , Florida, University of New Haven
Gross domestic product for the second quarter of this year came in better than expected, with the economy growing at an annualized rate close to 3%. Republicans and DemocratsIt’s not fair to lay all the blame for the state of the economy on one party when both have contributed. While neither can be fully blamed for the pandemic itself, their handling of it has had significant ramifications for the economy. Oh, here’s an idea, let’s just leave interest rates really high.” That’s not to say that politicians necessarily wanted to make Americans’ lives more difficult either. Yet all the calculus they perform to determine what the ideal interest rate level is at any given point in time is complicated by fiscal spending that’s entirely out of their control.
Persons: Democrats It’s, Trump, Biden, , It’s, , Massachusetts Democratic Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Jerome Powell “, “ He’s, let’s, ” That’s, don’t, they’ve, They’ve Organizations: New, New York CNN, Gross, Republicans, Democrats, MIT, State, , Massachusetts Democratic, Fed Locations: New York, Ukraine, , Massachusetts
Mortgage interest rates dropped last week to the lowest level since May 2023, causing a surge in mortgage demand from both homebuyers and especially current homeowners. Total mortgage application volume rose 6.9% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index. "Despite the downward movement in rates, purchase activity only saw small gains, with an increase in conventional purchase applications offset by decreases in government purchase applications. "This is how things often play out when the bond market forces a quick move to extreme rate levels. For example, several of the biggest drops in daily mortgage rates have followed quick moves to long-term highs," wrote Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily.
Persons: Joel Kan, Matthew Graham Organizations: Mortgage, Federal Reserve, Mortgage News Locations: Hawthorn Woods , Illinois
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