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☆ The banking crisis is having a slow-burn impact on the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

That's a credit hit on Middle America, on Main Street," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. Watching growth aheadIn the immediate future, the reading on first-quarter economic growth is expected to be largely positive despite the banking problems. In fact, the most recent recession was just two years ago in the early days of the Covid crisis. Consumer spending has seemed to hold up fairly well in the face of the banking crisis, with Citigroup estimating excess savings of about $1 trillion still available. [The banking situation] is a headwind, but it's not a gale-force headwind, it's just kind of a nuisance."

Persons: Spencer Platt, Steven Blitz, Stocks, Robert Sockin, it's, Dow Jones, isn't, It's, Moody's, Mark Zandi, headwind, Covid, Jim Baird, Plante, Baird Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, TS Lombard, First, Bank, P Bank ETF, Citigroup, Commerce Department, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Moody's, Financial Advisors Locations: New York City, U.S, America, First Republic, Atlanta

☆ China has an inflation problem. It’s way too low
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

That’s raising the specter of a tailspin of falling prices and wages from which the economy may struggle to recover. “Our core view is that China’s economy is deflationary,” wrote Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at ANZ Research, last week, soon after China released its first-quarter GDP growth figures. Instead of spending money, people are hoarding cash at a record rate. “Even with a conservative estimate, 500 billion yuan in consumption vouchers will drive one trillion yuan in overall consumption, ” Li said in a video posted on his Weibo social media account on Tuesday. In return, the government could receive at least 300 billion yuan through taxes generated by the increase in spending, he said“So it only takes 200 billion yuan in spending for the central government to drive one trillion yuan in consumption,” he said.

☆ Elon Musk spoke about crystal balls, bank lending, self-driving cars and lithium refineries this week. Here are his 10 best quotes from Tesla's Q1 earnings call.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Elon Musk spoke about banks, self-driving cars, crystal balls, and lithium refineries this week. He warned of "stormy weather" ahead and said rate hikes, layoff fears, and bank lending are worries. (Musk was discussing Tesla's Dojo's supercomputer platform, and nodding to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March.) (Musk was hinting at a possible credit crunch if banks, facing deposit outflows and the prospect of further bank runs, pull back on lending.) (Musk was outlining his vision of eventually rolling out autonomous driving to all Tesla vehicles via a software update, allowing them to serve as robotaxis and generate income.)

☆ US bank deposits, loans ticked down in latest week -Fed data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 21 (Reuters) - Deposits at all U.S. commercial banks dropped in the second week of April, though at smaller banks deposits held steady in a sign of stabilization in the financial institutions hardest hit by deposit outflows after last month's failure of two large regional banks. Federal Reserve data released on Friday showed deposits at all commercial banks fell to $17.38 trillion in the week ended April 12, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, from $17.43 trillion a week earlier. The drop was almost entirely at the top 25 banks, the data showed. A drop in deposits can leave banks with less capacity for loans, though there was little to show that in the Fed's data Friday. Loans and leases at all banks ticked down to $12.05 trillion from $12.06 trillion a week earlier.

☆ What to watch for in the markets in the week ahead: Monster tech earnings, then sell in May?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

More than one third (35%) of the S & P 500 reports earnings next week — including megacaps Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Amazon — versus less than 12% in the week just ended and only 2% last week. So far this quarter, S & P 500 earnings are running 4.7% below the same period a year ago, Refinitiv data shows. Back then, the S & P 500 fell 19.4% from its April high to a low on October 3. Meanwhile, next week is the last full trading week before Wall Street's old adage to "sell in May and go away" takes hold. ET: FHFA Home Price index (February); S & P Case-Shiller home price indexes (February) 10:00 a.m.

The survey's flash services sector PMI rose to 53.7, the highest reading in a year, from 52.6 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI falling to 51.5. Flash PMIIn the euro zone, the bloc's dominant services industry saw already-buoyant demand rise too, more than offsetting a deepening downturn in manufacturing. However, the manufacturing PMI fell to 45.5 from 47.3, its lowest since the coronavirus pandemic was cementing its grip on the world three years ago. "The PMI sheds a positive light on the economic performance in the euro zone, as a pickup in service sector activity is boosting growth," said Bert Colijn, senior euro zone economist at ING, noting manufacturing weakness remained a concern.

☆ US bank deposits, loans ticked down in latest week, Fed data show
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

At the same time, hiring remained strong through March, and wages continue growing faster than Fed officials feel is sustainable. The ECI is only released quarterly and includes both worker pay and benefits like healthcare, giving what Fed officials regard as a clearer sense of employment-related cost trends. For Fed officials, it could influence their view of whether the economy and inflation are likely to slow more - perhaps much more - quickly than anticipated. Reuters GraphicsEconomists expect the upcoming survey will show conditions tightening further still, this time alongside data showing credit from banks in decline. "Banks may not be done tightening lending standards, which will restrict access to credit, hurt business investment, reduce business formation, and weigh on job growth and consumer spending."

☆ The credit crunch is here and it could cripple the economy. Here's what Larry Summers, Nouriel Roubini and 7 other experts have said on the emerging threat.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Latest bank lending data suggests the credit crunch "has already started," according to Morgan Stanley strategists. Here's a selection of recent warnings on the emerging threat from experts including Larry Summers, David Solomon, Mike Wilson, Nouriel Roubini and Bill Gross. Apollo Asset Management's Jim Zelter told Bloomberg "it's not a credit crunch" but rather a "transition period" as markets face higher debt costs. "That credit crunch is going to make the likelihood of a recession — a hard landing — much greater than before. "Whether this qualifies as a full-blown 'credit crunch' remains to be seen.

☆ Elon Musk predicts a year of 'stormy weather' for the US economy - and warns Tesla faces a raft of headwinds
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Tesla CEO warns higher interest rates, layoff fears, and tighter bank lending may hit demand. In response to historic inflation, the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates from nearly zero to about 5% over the past 13 months. Higher rates make borrowing more expensive and encourage saving over spending, which can slow the pace of price increases. "Every time the Fed raises the interest rates, that's equivalent to increasing the price of a car," Musk said. "If interest rates are really high, like they are right now, in some cases, people can't get a loan at all."

☆ There's more downside for office REITs as bank lending tightens: Morgan Stanley's Ronald Kamdem
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's more downside for office REITs as bank lending tightens: Morgan Stanley's Ronald KamdemRonald Kamdem, Morgan Stanley REIT analyst, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss his expectations for office REIT earnings, investor interest in commercial real estate, and more.

☆ Federal Reserve has to factor in slower bank lending: Citizens Financial Group CEO
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFederal Reserve has to factor in slower bank lending: Citizens Financial Group CEOBruce Van Saun, Citizens Financial Group CEO, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss insights into the company's deposit flows, why bank margins may be affected by deposit flows, and more.

☆ Banking turmoil isn't over as regional lenders face risk of commercial-property credit losses, JPMorgan strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Regional banks' troubles aren't over and remain "an area of concern", JPMorgan Asset Management's Jonathan Liang said. They are facing increased risks of credit losses in the commercial-property sector, which may come under stress, he said. And so we think that in the coming year or two, there's going to be growing distress in this space, and that will also potentially amount to credit losses for those US regional banks," he added. Many experts have warned the US commercial real-estate sector could face problems as high borrowing costs and tighter credit conditions following the recent banking turmoil complicate matters for big property owners as they seek to refinance loans. Nearly $450 billion in commercial real-estate debt is due to mature in 2023 - meaning a final payment on those loans are due, per data cited from Trepp by JPMorgan.

☆ Analysis: China's 'atypical' deflation cycle gives central bank a headache
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

China GDP"China is entering an 'atypical' deflation cycle, which means deflation amid economic recovery," said Jinyue Dong, senior economist at BBVA research. China's new bank lending hit an all-time high in the first quarter. The central bank cut lenders' reserve requirements ratio (RRR) for the first time this year in March. But analysts say that is largely due to last year's low base caused by COVID-19 curbs that hit consumers the hardest, rather than underlying household demand. Reuters GraphicsNew household loans, mainly mortgages and consumer loans, accounted for 16% of total new loans in the first quarter, despite a jump in mortgages in March, while corporate loans made up for the rest.

☆ Yellen says US banks may tighten lending and negate need for more rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( David Lawder | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

WASHINGTON, April 15 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said banks are likely to become more cautious and may tighten lending further in the wake of recent bank failures, possibly negating the need for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. "Banks are likely to become somewhat more cautious in this environment," Yellen said in the interview, which is scheduled to air on Sunday. But Yellen said she was not yet seeing anything "dramatic enough or significant enough" in this area to alter her economic outlook. Some Fed officials have said the U.S. central bank should adopt a more cautious footing as they expect banks to restrict lending in the months ahead. Asked whether sanctions could erode the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency, Yellen acknowledged potential risks.

☆ Yellen says U.S. banks may tighten lending and negate need for more Fed rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said banks are likely to become more cautious and may tighten lending further in the wake of recent bank failures, possibly negating the need for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. "Banks are likely to become somewhat more cautious in this environment," Yellen said in the interview, which is scheduled to air on Sunday. She said that would lead to a restriction in credit in the economy that "could be a substitute for further interest rate hikes that the Fed needs to make." But Yellen said she was not yet seeing anything "dramatic enough or significant enough" in this area to alter her economic outlook. Some Fed officials have said the U.S. central bank should adopt a more cautious footing as they expect banks to restrict lending in the months ahead.

☆ China's first-quarter GDP growth seen rebounding to 4.0%, 2023 rate seen at 5.4% - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

That would be the fastest growth since the first quarter of last year. The government has set a modest target for economic growth of around 5% for this year, after badly missing the 2022 goal. The government is due to release first quarter GDP data, along with March activity data, at 0200 GMT on April 18. On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to grow 2.2% in January-March, compared with no change in October-December, the poll showed. “We need to maintain the stability and continuity of macro policies to consolidate the economic recovery,” said Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank.

☆ China's Q1 GDP growth seen rebounding to 4.0%, 2023 rate seen at 5.4%: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

That would be the fastest growth since the first quarter of last year. For 2023, growth was expected to pick up to 5.4%, the poll showed, from 3.0% last year - one of its worst performances in nearly half a century due to strict COVID-19 curbs. The government has set a modest target for economic growth of around 5% for this year, after badly missing the 2022 goal. The government is due to release first quarter GDP data, along with March activity data, at 0200 GMT on April 18. Consumer inflation will likely quicken to 2.3% in 2023 from 2.0% in 2022, before steadying in 2024, the poll showed.

The retail sales data provided at least a hint that a pandemic-era spending boom may be nearing an end, though some economists argued that the historically low unemployment rate and rising wages make a sharp drop in consumption unlikely. In separate comments, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he'd seen little evidence yet that the economy was under stress, little progress on inflation, and no reason to call off further rate increases. The current inflation rate is more than twice that target, and progress on getting it to move in that direction has been slow. The data showed households expected inflation to accelerate significantly in the year ahead, reversing months of progress towards them viewing inflation as a receding phenomenon. There won't be much more topline economic data before the Fed's May 2-3 meeting.

☆ Exclusive: ECB policymakers converging on 25-bps rate hike in May - sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The ECB has raised rates by at least 50 basis points each at six successive meetings -- the fastest pace on record -- to fight stubbornly high inflation. The sources said that some are advocating no change in May - mostly the same Southern European policymakers who did not support last month's 50 basis point increase, while others - also a small group - argue for another 50 basis point hike. Klaas Knot of the Netherlands said it was unclear whether 50 basis points would be needed or if 25 was enough. Slovakia's Peter Kazimir said the ECB could perhaps slow down the pace of its increases while Austria's Robert Holzmann meanwhile backed another 50 basis point move. Markets currently price 25 basis point hikes each in May and June, while a third such increase is fully priced in by September.

April 13 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. The Asian/Pacific calendar is pretty light on Thursday, with Chinese trade and Australian unemployment figures for March the main events. Music to investors' - and Fed officials' - ears, but the feelgood factor was snuffed out by the Fed minutes. Fed officials are right to be worried about credit conditions. Recent public remarks from Fed officials suggest they are less worried now.

☆ Exclusive: ECB policymakers converging on 25-bps rate hike in May , sources say
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

☆ Signs that bank lending is decreasing amid rate hikes, ECB policymaker says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSigns that bank lending is decreasing amid rate hikes, ECB policymaker saysConstantinos Herodotou, governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus and European Central Bank policymaker, says there is evidence that bank lending is softening as a result of ongoing interest rate hikes. However, he adds that the terminal rate for ECB hikes remains data dependent.

☆ Don't sell unless you're very tactical and short term: Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDon't sell unless you're very tactical and short term: Wharton professor Jeremy SiegelWharton Professor Jeremy Siegel joins 'Halftime Report' to discuss economic data, bank lending constraints suggesting further economic declines, and when the Fed will cut rates.

☆ Tax refunds are getting smaller, and fit into the picture of a slowing economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

But as pandemic-related tailwinds run their course, another example becoming a thing of the recent past is bigger than typical tax refunds. "Earlier in the quarter, we were seeing taxes, your tax refunds higher year-over-year, during the last probably five or six weeks we've seen that decline. As pandemic-era benefits and tax credit wane, the tax refund data factors into the broader economic picture and the consumer as a source of strength. watch nowAll spending, not just retail spending, will be impacted by lower tax refunds, and that will continue into next quarter. The smaller tax refunds should not be a surprise to businesses — the data has been mounting over the past four to six weeks.

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