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☆ Cautious calm returns to bank stocks as focus shifts to regulation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Focus is also shifting to the possibility of tighter regulation in the U.S. banking sector, particularly for mid-tier banks like SVB (SIVB.O) and New York-based Signature Bank, whose collapses last week roiled financial markets. Investors had been particularly concerned about the huge bond holdings, particularly in U.S. Treasuries, of Japanese lenders. However, Japanese finance minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Wednesday differences in the structure of bank deposits, meant local banks wouldn't face incidents similar to SVB's collapse. In an attempt to avert a similar crisis down the line, the Federal Reserve is also considering tougher rules and oversight for midsize banks similar in size to SVB. "A year after starting to raise interest rates, the Federal Reserve is still chasing evidence that higher borrowing costs are slowing the U.S.

☆ Britain to bolster the City after Silicon Valley Bank collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] A person walks over Millennium Bridge amidst early morning fog, as the sun rises beyond the City of London financial district in the background, in London, Britain, February 8, 2023. Following the collapse of its parent company in the United States, Silicon Valley Bank's UK arm was sold to HSBC over the weekend to avoid disrupting its customers in Britain. Hunt said he would make a statement in the autumn on how the UK financial system would be strengthened. City Minister Andrew Griffith has said that an accounting rule for pension funds has become a "performance penalty" which holds back investment in Britain. The financial sector has called for faster implementation of the proposals after Amsterdam overtook London as Europe's biggest share trading centre.

Big hedge funds including Marshall Wace and Odey Asset Management added to short positions against Europe's banks, regulatory filings seen by Reuters and data from Breakout Point showed. Marshall Wace held the largest disclosed number of short positions against banks, public filings from Austria, Italy, Sweden, Britain, Spain and Poland analysed by Breakout Point showed. The banks included BAWAG (BAWG.VI), FinecoBank (FBK.MI), Handelsbanken (SHBa.ST), CaixaBank (CABK.MC), NatWest Group (NWG.L) and PKO Bank Polski (PKO.WA). BNP Paribas shares fell by as much as 12% on Wednesday before recovering to show a loss of 9%, while Deutsche Bank shares fell almost 9%. In the week to Wednesday, some 120 billion euros ($126 billion) had been wiped off the value of European bank shares.

LONDON, March 14 (Reuters) - Britain's NatWest (NWG.L) has imposed new limits on the daily and monthly amount customers can send to cryptocurrency exchanges, seeking to protect consumers from "crypto-criminals", the bank said on Tuesday. From Tuesday customer transfers to cryptocurrency exchanges will be limited to 5,000 pounds ($6,088) per 30-day period, with no more than 1,000 pounds per day, NatWest said. Regulators around the world have warned of the risks of scams and fraud in the largely unregulated world of crypto trading. In June 2021 NatWest introduced some daily caps on customers' crypto transfers to crypto exchanges, including top platform Binance, with the limits varying in size depending on the platform in question. Santander said in November last year that it would block customers from sending real-time payments to cryptocurrency exchanges some time this year.

☆ SVB contagion fears hammer banks, roil markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Tokyo Stock Exchange banks index (.IBNKS.T) fell more than 7%, setting it on course for its steepest drop in nearly six months. Banks shares in Singapore and Australia fell. Heavy selling hit U.S. regional bank stocks overnight and traders raced away from bets on U.S. rate hikes, reckoning the instability would turn policymakers cautious. "Bank runs have started (and) interbank markets have become stressed," said Damien Boey, chief equity strategist at Sydney-based investment bank Barrenjoey. "Bank stocks had run up (when) it was thought that monetary policy might normalise a bit," said Jamie Halse, who manages a Japan-focused fund at Platinum Asset Management in Sydney.

☆ Bank slide deepens as SVB contagion fear rattles markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Tokyo Stock Exchange banks index (.IBNKS.T) fell more than 5%, setting it on course for its steepest drop in nearly six months. Banks shares in Singapore and Australia fell. Heavy selling hit U.S. regional bank stocks overnight and traders raced away from bets on U.S. rate hikes, reckoning the instability would turn policymakers cautious. "Bank runs have started (and) interbank markets have become stressed," said Damien Boey, chief equity strategist at Sydney-based investment bank Barrenjoey. "Bank stocks had run up (when) it was thought that monetary policy might normalise a bit," said Jamie Halse, who manages a Japan-focused fund at Platinum Asset Management in Sydney.

☆ Japanese banks slide as SVB contagion fear rattles markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Bank runs have started (and) interbank markets have become stressed," said Damien Boey, chief equity strategist at Sydney-based investment bank Barrenjoey. "Fear has started to feed on itself, and higher uncertainty by itself has triggered its own de-leveraging and de-risking dynamics." Overnight the VIX (.VIX) volatility index, nicknamed Wall Street's "fear gauge", shot higher and other indicators of market stress showed early signs of strain. In Tokyo, Resona Holdings (8308.T) led losses with a 9% slide, followed by Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8306.T), down 8%. U.S. inflation data due later in the day is likely to inject more volatility, even if investors see the Fed prioritising financial stability.

☆ As hawkish Fed pricing goes away, bullish dollar calls fade
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The moves come as investors rush for safe havens and adjust for a less aggressive Fed in the wake of the bank failures. “The market is basically saying that the Fed is done here,” said Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities in New York. Some banks, including Goldman Sachs and NatWest Markets, have also said they no longer expect the Fed to raise rates this month. Traders are also pricing for the Fed to cut rates this year, with the fed funds rate expected to fall to 3.80% in December, from 4.57% now. “From a dollar perspective, that’s very important because the resetting of Fed expectations ever higher was a big part of the dollar rally we had seen before these moves,” he added.

March 13 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields tumbled on Monday as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) sent investors rushing into safe-haven assets and caused traders to bet on a smaller rate hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday. SVB's collapse sparked a massive rally in European and global bond markets on Monday. The German 2-year bond yield was last down 34 basis points (bps) at 2.746%, on track for its biggest one-day drop since 1995. Market pricing showed traders thought a 25 bp hike is now the more likely outcome, despite 50 bps appearing almost certain last week. The European Central Bank is not planning an emergency meeting of its banking supervisory board on Monday after the collapse of SVB, a senior source told Reuters.

☆ US stock futures rally as Fed acts to stabilise banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The moves came as authorities took possession of New York-based Signature Bank (SBNY.O), the second bank failure in a matter of days. Analysts noted that, importantly, the Fed would accept collateral at par rather than marking to market, allowing banks to borrow funds without having to sell assets at a loss. Investors reacted by sending U.S. S&P 500 stock futures up 1.2%, while Nasdaq futures rose 1.3%. Fed fund futures surged in early trading to imply only a 17% chance of a half-point hike, compared to around 70% before the SVB news broke last week. The dollar eased 0.4% on the Swiss franc , while the euro firmed 0.4% to $1.0690 as short-term U.S. yields dropped.

☆ The bond market's recession warning has gotten more urgent
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The bond market is sending a more urgent recession warning and also signaling that the Federal Reserve may have to pause raising interest rates — giving up its fight against inflation. The sharp move in the 2-year yield also resulted in a rapid steepening of the yield curve. "The steepening always starts to happen because the market expects the Fed to cut rates in response to that recession." DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach also said the "aggressively steepening" of the Treasury yield curve after inversion is "highly suggestive of imminent recession." The 2-year yield jumped above 5% after he spoke.

Meanwhile, extremely wide forecasts for new public borrowing requirements make the outlook for government bonds uncertain. Here are the main budget predictions for UK stocks, gilts and the pound. However NatWest analysts flagged that the OBR will likely revise down growth forecasts for the next five years, making the outlook for interest rates finely balanced. Hunt will likely keep the budget "reasonably dull" after Truss's "mini-budget" sent sterling to its lowest on record, she added. Investors in UK stocks are already grappling with a wide valuation gap with U.S. equities.

☆ Consumer inflation may have cooled in February but only slightly
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Consumer inflation may have cooled off a little in February, but economists expect it is still running at a high pace. The consumer price index, expected Tuesday morning, is forecast to show headline inflation rose 0.4% last month, or 6% from the prior year, according to economists polled by Dow Jones. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is expected to be higher by 0.4% and the annual pace is expected to be 5.5%. Tom Simons, money market economist at Jefferies, expects the Fed to stick with a quarter-point rate hike in March. By stopping here, it exposes them to risk of inflation expectations reaccelerating," said Simons.

With assets of around 5.5 billion pounds and deposits of around 6.7 billion pounds, SVB UK is a minnow compared to HSBC. The situation was urgent because SVB UK had lost almost half of its deposits in the 48 hours leading up to its rescue, the source said. Officials from the Bank of England and Treasury along with board members from SVB UK were then locked in talks. HSBC also plans to inject 2 billion pounds of liquidity into SVB UK, a spokesperson for HSBC said. Advisory firm Rothschild, which advised SVB UK according to sources, also declined to comment.

☆ Stock futures, bonds rally as U.S. acts to stabilise banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-12 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The moves came as authorities took possession of New York-based Signature Bank (SBNY.O), the second bank failure in a matter of days. Investors reacted by sending U.S. S&P 500 stock futures up 0.9%, while Nasdaq futures rose 1.1%. Fed fund futures surged in early trading to imply only a 28% chance of a half-point hike, compared to around 70% before the SVB news broke last week. That, combined with the shift to safety, saw yields on two-year Treasuries dive 47 basis points on Thursday and Friday to stand at 4.58%, a long way from last week's 5.08% peak. Treasury 10-year bond futures added another 6 ticks on Monday, having been up over 20 ticks at one stage in hectic early trade.

[1/2] A notice hangs on the door of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) located in San Francisco, California, U.S. March 10, 2023. "Silicon Valley Bank cannot be allowed to fail given the vital community it serves," Bank of London co-founder and CEO Anthony Watson said. But an executive at a major UK bank said it was unlikely a high street lender would buy SVB UK because its credit products would not be a good fit for a mainstream bank. EXISTENTIAL THREATMore than 250 UK tech firm executives signed a letter addressed to Hunt on Saturday calling for government intervention and warned of an "existential threat" to the UK tech sector, a copy seen by Reuters shows. Sunak has said he wants to turn Britain into the "next Silicon Valley".

☆ UK races to minimise SVB fallout amid reports of potential buyers
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-12 | by ( Andrew Macaskill | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/2] A notice hangs on the door of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) located in San Francisco, California, U.S. March 10, 2023. SoftBank-owned lender OakNorth Bank is weighing a bid to buy Silicon Valley Bank UK Ltd, a person with knowledge of the talks told Reuters, confirming a Sky News report. EXISTENTIAL THREATMore than 250 UK tech firm executives signed a letter addressed to Hunt on Saturday calling for government intervention and warned of an "existential threat" to the UK tech sector, a copy seen by Reuters shows. Hunt reiterated comments by the BoE that overall, Silicon Valley Bank had a limited presence in Britain and did not perform functions critical to the financial system. Sunak has said he wants to turn Britain into the "next Silicon Valley".

UK banks (.FTNMX301010) dropped to an eight-week low, spooked by a brutal rout in U.S. bank SVB Financial (SIVB.O) following a share sale. The FTSE 100 (.FTSE) slipped 1.9% to a five week low, while the more domestically focused mid-cap index (.FTMC) gave up 2.1% to hit a two-month low. The FTSE 100 is set to the end the week down about 2.8% in what could be its worst week since September, as worries around hawkish central banks sapped risk appetite. Next week, investors will be watching for UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's spring budget. Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'Souza and Saumyadeb ChakrabartyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Historic move in Treasury yields signals high inflation but maybe not a recession anytime soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

An inverted yield curve is considered a forewarning for recession, and the already-inverted yield curve stretched even wider this week to its most inverted level since 1981. The yield curve becomes inverted when short-duration yields rise above longer duration yields, as in the case of the 2-year Treasury yield and the 10-year yield. 10Y2YS 1Y line inversion Recession or a sign of inflation? The current shape of the yield curve tells you more about sticky inflation." Golub said the outcome of the inverted curve's recession warning has been different in periods of high inflation versus low inflation.

☆ Dollar treads water ahead of Powell testimony; Aussie slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, March 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was tentative on Tuesday ahead of testimony before Congress by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while the Aussie slid after the Reserve Bank of Australia hinted that it might nearly be done with monetary tightening. Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar index , which measures it against six major rivals, was flat at 104.24, having slipped 0.26% overnight. "We suspect he will sound noncommittal for now and take his cues from the looming upcoming key data," said Cummins, who expects the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 76% probability the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its March meeting. OCBC currency strategist Christopher Wong said Powell's testimony will be one of the last instances of Fed officials speaking before the black-out period commences ahead of the FOMC meeting.

☆ Dollar subdued ahead of Powell testimony; Aussie slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, March 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was tentative on Tuesday ahead of testimony by U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, while the Aussie slid after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points but tempered hawkishness in its statement. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index , which measures it against six major rivals, fell 0.077% to 104.170, having slipped 0.26% overnight. The Japanese yen was mostly flat at 135.94 to the dollar ahead of the final policy meeting for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday and Friday. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 76% probability the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its March meeting. They also expect interest rates to peak at 5.48% in September and still be above 5% at the end of the year.

☆ Dollar subdued ahead of Powell testimony
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, March 7 (Reuters) - The dollar was subdued on Tuesday ahead of testimony by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, which investors will focus on for cues of the path the U.S. central bank is likely to take in tackling sticky inflation. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major rivals, was 0.067% higher at 104.31, having skidded 0.26% overnight. The Australian dollar rose 0.01% against the U.S. dollar at $0.673 ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decision later in the day where a quarter-percentage point rate hike is widely expected. The Japanese yen weakened 0.15% to 136.14 per dollar ahead of the final policy meeting for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday and Friday. They also expect interest rates to peak at 5.48% in September and still be above 5% at the end of the year.

☆ Asia stocks rally, bonds tense for U.S. rate tests
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Japan's Nikkei (.N225) climbed 1.0% to a three-month top, while South Korean stocks (.KS11) added 0.6% helped by a softer reading on inflation. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.1% and Nasdaq futures 0.2%, after rallying on Friday as bond yields eased back a little. Futures imply a 72% chance the Fed will go by 25 basis points at its meeting on March 22. The BOJ jolted markets in December when it unexpectedly widened the allowed trading band for 10-year bond yields to between -50 and +50 basis points. Friday's pullback in bond yields helped gold recover some ground and it was trading at $1,855 an ounce .

LONDON, March 2 (Reuters) - Britain's Nationwide Building Society has restricted customers' ability to buy cryptocurrencies, the lender said in an email to its members on Thursday. Nationwide said it will not allow payments to crypto exchanges using credit cards and will limit adult current accounts to 5,000 pounds ($5,995) of purchases per day. The building society said the move was in response to regulatory concern over the risks of buying digital currencies. Cryptocurrency prices surged in 2020 and 2021 before sharp declines last year as rising interest rates prompted investors to ditch riskier assets. In November, as part of measures to protect customers from scams, Santander (SAN.MC) introduced limits on the amount customers could transfer to cryptocurrency exchanges and said it would soon block UK customers from sending any real-time payments to cryptocurrency exchanges.

☆ British lawmakers ramp up pressure on banks over savings rates, exec pay
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Iain Withers | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Treasury Committee noted profit margins at the four biggest British banks - Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L), NatWest (NWG.L), HSBC (HSBA.L) and Barclays (BARC.L) - increased in 2022 earnings published last month, while some also bumped up boardroom pay. The committee has asked the four banks to justify why they offer less than 1% interest on easy access savings accounts, despite the Bank of England benchmark rate rising to 4%. Banks reported robust profits for 2022 in earnings last month, but warned margins could already have peaked as competition steps up. Analysts have questioned whether political pressure could have been a factor in banks outlining cautious guidance on their future earnings potential. Reporting by Iain Withers; editing by Sinead Cruise, Kirsten DonovanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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