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Morning Bid: Oil-fueled rally turns to Powell
  + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
[1/2] Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell answers a question during a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. And that's hit home by dragging U.S. pump prices down to levels not seen since March. Overall, U.S. 10-year yields remained on the back foot at 4.57% first thing and ahead of Wednesday's auction. Although Asian and European stocks fell back a bit, Wall St stock futures were unchanged before the bell. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Mike Dolan, who's, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Christopher Waller, BoE, Ping, Donald Trump, White, Philip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Lisa Cook, John Williams, Joachim Nagel, Walt Disney, Ralph Lauren, Toby Chopra Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Mike Dolan Wall, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Atlanta, Fed, Chicago Fed, St, Reuters, Ping An Insurance, HK, New York Fed, Warner Bros Discovery, MGM Resorts, Biogen, Energy, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Gaza, Tokyo, Ohio, Kentucky, Brussels, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
A credit card is used on a payment terminal at a shop near Nantes, France, in this illustration picture taken November 6, 2023. The New York Fed report found credit issues are rising, albeit from low levels. The report said increases in credit card delinquency rates were most pronounced for thirtysomething borrowers. “The continued rise in credit card delinquency rates is broad-based across area income and region, but particularly pronounced among millennials and those with auto loans or student loans,” the economist noted. Line chart with data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York show credit card and auto loans delinquencies for over 30 days.
Persons: Stephane Mahe, there's, Donghoon Lee, , Daniel Silver, Morgan, Lisa Cook, Michael S, Andrea Ricci, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York Fed, New, Fed, The New York Fed, New York Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York, Thomson Locations: Nantes, France, The, U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New
"This was an outstanding quarter ... this big blowout number," Waller told an economic data seminar at the St. Louis Fed. So this is something we are keeping a very close eye on when we think about policy going forward." It's clearly calming down," with recent employment gains more in line with the levels seen before the coronavirus pandemic, Waller said. The Fed is in the process of weighing that and other data to determine whether to hike the benchmark policy rate again. However neither Goolsbee nor Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who spoke to Bloomberg Television on Tuesday, ruled out further Fed rate increases.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Louis Fed, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Howard Schneider, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Michael Derby, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, St, Ohio Bankers League, Fed, New York Fed, Atlanta, CNBC, Chicago Fed, Minneapolis, Bloomberg Television, Thomson Locations: U.S
New York Fed economists said Tuesday US credit card balances grew $48 billion in the third quarter. AdvertisementAdvertisementEconomists at the New York Federal Reserve said Tuesday Americans' credit card balances grew by $48 billion in the third quarter, or about 4.7%, with the total amount reaching $1.08 trillion. Credit card debt hit $1 trillion for the first time ever this past summer. "But credit card delinquencies continue to rise from their historical lows seen during the pandemic and have now surpassed pre-pandemic levels." Close to 9.5% of credit card balances were more than 90 days delinquent last quarter, up from 8% in the second quarter and 7.6% during the third quarter of last year.
Persons: Organizations: Service, New York Federal Reserve, New York Federal, New York Fed
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe are going to see delinquencies continue to rise, says LendingTree's Matt SchulzMatt Schulz, LendingTree chief credit analyst, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the jump in delinquency rates from the second quarter, the health of the consumer, and more.
Persons: LendingTree's Matt Schulz Matt Schulz, LendingTree, Steve Liesman
The increases in credit card delinquency were the sharpest among borrowers in the range of 30 to 39 years old, according to the New York Fed. Newly delinquent auto loan balances continued to climb, as well, with transitions into serious delinquencies hitting 13-year highs, survey data showed. Still, thanks mostly to higher-quality mortgage loans, overall delinquencies remain below pre-pandemic levels, New York Fed researchers said. Credit card balances, which in the second quarter surpassed the trillion-dollar mark for the first time, continued to grow at historic rates. This year is on pace to have the lowest origination values since 2014, New York Fed data shows.
Persons: , Donghoon Lee, , Mortgage originations Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, ” New York Fed, Mortgage Locations: Minneapolis, New, New York
"But I would say that an expectation of higher near-term policy rates does not appear to be causing the increase in longer-term rates." The interest rate on the 10-year Treasury bond has risen roughly a percentage point since the summer, breaching the 5% level late last month before dropping in recent days to its current level around 4.64%. The Fed has not raised its policy rate since July. Cook did not comment on her specific view of the Fed's policy rate, focusing instead on an overview of financial stability issues. In her overview of financial stability, Cook said she felt that the banking system had weathered the stresses of last spring, and "remains sound and resilient overall."
Persons: Lisa DeNell Cook, Ken Cedeno, Lisa Cook, Cook, Jerome Powell, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Governors, Federal Reserve System, Banking, Housing, Urban, Capitol, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Rights, Federal, Duke University, Thomson Locations: Michigan, Washington ,, U.S
Photographer: Christopher Dilts/Bloomberg via Getty Images Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesAs holiday shopping season begins, lack of big orders from retailers is the rule amid fears that consumer spending will be weak, according to a new CNBC Supply Chain Survey. At the CNBC Evolve Global Summit last Thursday, Target CEO Brian Cornell said the company is doubling down on its cautious outlook for the holiday season. The CNBC Supply Chain Survey was conducted October 21-October 31 among logistics executives who manage freight manufacturing orders and transportation, including those at C.H. Lunar New Year and order volumes The CNBC Supply Chain Survey underscores an overall climate of uncertainty that is defining the market right now. The freight trucking recession Trucking companies get paid per load, and the low expectations for orders imply potentially lower revenue this holiday season.
Persons: Christopher Dilts, Robinson, Noah Hoffman, Hoffman, Jeremy Barnum, Brian Cornell, Raj Subramaniam, restocking, Kuehne, Nagel, Paul Brashier, Tim Robertson, Robertson, Brian Bourke, Elmer Buchta, Jeff Bezos, Uber, Brashier, Berkshire Hathaway, Alan Baer Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty Images Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC Supply Chain Survey, North American Surface Transportation, CNBC, Global, FedEx, Chain Survey, SEKO Logistics, USA, ITS Logistics, Amazon, Maersk, Logistics, Convoy, Tank Transport, U.S ., Union Pacific, BNSF, Norfolk Southern, CSX Locations: Chicago , Illinois, C.H, U.S, China, United States, Montana, Indiana, Panama, West Coast, U.S . West Coast, Los Angeles, Berkshire, West, East Coast
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAuto loan delinquencies indicate the consumer is falling behind, says PIMCO Co-Founder Bill GrossHosted by Brian Sullivan, “Last Call” is a fast-paced, entertaining business show that explores the intersection of money, culture and policy. Tune in Monday through Friday at 7 p.m. ET on CNBC.
Persons: PIMCO, Bill Gross, Brian Sullivan, Organizations: CNBC
As recently as the summer, respondents had forecast rate cuts in the beginning of next year. The change can also be seen in the outlook for the fed funds rate, the central bank's benchmark for short-term lending costs. It's now forecast on average to end 2024 at 4.6%, assuming about 75 basis points of rate cuts. In June, the year-end 2024 funds rate was forecast at 3.8%, which assumed 125 basis points of cuts. Some 60% of respondents see the Fed hitting its inflation target in 2025 or sometime after that, and 19% don't believe the Fed will ever get there.
Persons: Jerome, Powell, Peter Boockvar, Robert Brusca, Troy Ludtka Organizations: CNBC, Survey, Federal Reserve, Bleakley Financial, Fed, Nikko Securities
Amazon.com Inc | ReutersThe initial third-quarter report on gross domestic product showed consumer spending zooming higher by 4% percent a year, after inflation, the best in almost two years. How is this possible with interest rates on everything from credit cards to cars and homes soaring? But they were below expectations at electric-vehicle leader Tesla , which blamed high interest rates, and at Ford . "And as interest rates rise, the proportion of that monthly payment that is interest increases." At American Express , which saw U.S. consumer spending rise 9%, the mild surprise was the company's disclosure that young consumers are adding Amex cards faster than any other group.
Persons: Bill Ackman, CFRA, Sam Stovall, Ryan Marshall, Wells, Jackie Benson, Tesla, Elon Musk, GM, Mary Barra, Paul Jacobson, John Lawler, Musk, Brian Moynihan, Jeremy Barnum, Sachin Mehra, Zers, Guess they're, Stovall, chargeoffs, John Greene, Morgan Stanley, Ravi Shanker, Spirit, Sundaram, Ethan Allen, they've, Marc Bitzer, Arun Sundaram, Amanda Agati, there's Organizations: Amazon.com Inc, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Coldwell, Ford, General Motors, GM, United Auto Workers, UAW, Cox Automotive, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, MasterCard, American Express, Discover Financial Services, JetBlue, Whirlpool, Amazon, PNC, Federal, Asset Management Locations: Shakopee , Minnesota, U.S, Covid, PulteGroup, Vermont
While the anticipated robust growth pace notched last quarter is probably not sustainable, it would demonstrate the economy's resilience despite aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP likely increased at a 4.3% annualized rate last quarter, which would be the fastest since the fourth quarter of 2021. Others are not too concerned, noting the labor market continues to churn out jobs at a solid clip. Growth last quarter was also seen lifted by a smaller trade deficit, thanks to strong exports and increased inventory investment. But the labor dispute, which is costing auto makers millions of dollars per week, could weigh on growth in the fourth quarter.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Joe Biden's, Sal Guatieri, Luke Tilley, it's, Yelena Shulyatyeva, Brian Bethune, Lucia Mutikani, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, Business, WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, BMO Capital Markets, Consumer, Wilmington Trust, Labor, Labor Department, U.S, Treasury, Financial, Group's, BNP, Boston College, Thomson Locations: Brooklyn , New York City, U.S, Toronto, American, Wilmington, Philadelphia, New York
This holiday season, shoppers who ring up purchases on credit cards will pay more interest if they carry balances from month to month after the Federal Reserve's string of rate hikes. Already, investors and retailers have paid closer attention to credit card payments — and some have cited them as a concern. The company, which has its own branded credit cards, has seen lower revenues from those cards because of costs associated with bad debt and related write-offs. Mitchell said student debt, auto loans and mortgages have all become bigger burdens in a high interest rate environment. For retailer-issued cards, the average interest rate is nearly 30%, a record high, according to data from Bankrate.
Persons: Alexi Rosenfeld, Aditya Bhave, Bhave, Taylor Swift, Wall, Adrian Mitchell, Mitchell, Doug McMillon, Tim Quinlan, Wells, Quinlan Organizations: Getty, Shoppers, Bank of America, Consumers, Walmart, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: New York City, Wells Fargo
Boomers have cash and appear to be weathering rising interest rates better than other generations, according to Bank of America. Because of this, the bank sees stocks particularly exposed to the well-off group that investors of all ages should buy. In contrast, Bank of America found millennials are the only generation with a meaningful amount of mortgage debt incurred after 2021, according to Bank of America. Bank data shows boomers have yet to feel the pinch from higher rates — and the wealthy subsection of the generation is actually benefitting from them. Given apparel is more prominent among millennials, Kwon pointed to Revolve as a short play.
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, septuagenarians, Kwon, Welltower, Kwon's boomer, LSEG, — CNBC's Michael Organizations: Boomers, Bank of America, Bank of America . Bank, American, Service Corporation
In an interview, CEO Larry Culp said the company is aiming for a 20% to 25% year-on-year increase in the engine deliveries in 2024, lower than a revised 40% to 45% annual growth this year. Still, hitting the target will not be easy as it requires quarter-on-quarter improvements in the supply chain, he said. LEAP engines, which GE produces in a joint venture with France's Safran (SAF.PA), power the narrowbody aircraft of Boeing Co (BA.N) and Airbus (AIR.PA). It forced GE to trim the delivery growth target for LEAP engines this year by at least 5 percentage points and push out some of the deliveries into 2024 and 2025. But the demand for both aftermarket services and new engine deliveries is so strong that GE and its suppliers need to do more, Culp said.
Persons: Larry Culp mingles, Alwyn Scott, Larry Culp, France's Safran, delinquencies, Pratt, Culp, airframers, " Culp, Rajesh Kumar Singh, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Electric Co, REUTERS, Rights, General, Reuters, GE, Boeing Co, Airbus, Boeing, Thomson Locations: Tarrytown , New York, U.S
A branch of Barclays Bank is seen, in London, Britain, February 23, 2022. Barclays shares fell nearly 7% in early trading, while shares in rivals Lloyds (LLOY.L) and NatWest (NWG.L) each dipped around 3%. SLUGGISH INVESTMENT BANKThe lender reported pre-tax profit for the July-September period of 1.9 billion pounds ($2.33 billion) on Tuesday, down from 2 billion pounds a year ago but above a consensus analyst forecast of 1.77 billion pounds. Barclays reported a 6% drop in income at its investment bank for the quarter, following a similarly downbeat performance at the half-year results update in July. ($1 = 0.8151 pounds)Reporting By Lawrence White and Iain Withers; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Emelia Sithole-MatariseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Peter Nicholls, Venkatakrishnan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley's, Venkat, Matt Britzman, Hargreaves Lansdown, Jes Staley, Jeffrey Epstein, Staley, Lawrence White, Iain Withers, Kirsten Donovan, Emelia Organizations: Barclays Bank, REUTERS, Barclays, Lloyds, NatWest, JPMorgan, Reuters, Banking, Jefferies, Revenue, Bank of America, Financial, Authority, Thomson Locations: London, Britain
A recession is poised to hit the US economy within the next nine months, according to Raymond James. These are the three big warning signs Raymond James is monitoring ahead of a potential recession. These are the three warning signs he is monitoring ahead of a potential recession. Tailwinds that drove strong consumer spending since the pandemic are ending and excess savings have been nearly depleted. All of these risks should ultimately weigh on consumer spending habits as the crucial holiday season approaches.
Persons: Raymond James, Larry Adam, Adam, Brian Moynihan Organizations: Bank of America, Consumers
The investment firm said it wouldn't be a surprise if the economy showed strong growth right before a recession started. "In the last 12 recessions, the quarter before the economy went into a recession, growth was positive and robust." AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors shouldn't be fooled by strong GDP growth in the next quarter or two, as an economic recession could still be right around the corner. That's based on the fact that prior recessions saw solid economic growth in the quarter right before the recession started, according to data from Raymond James. "In the last 12 recessions, the quarter before the economy went into a recession, growth was positive and robust—registering an average growth rate of 2.6%.
Persons: Raymond James, , Larry Adam, Raymond James Strong, Adam, he's, Bill Gross, Gross, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel Organizations: Service, Atlanta Federal
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe rise in delinquencies is a risk that is impossible to ignore, says iCapital's Anastasia AmorosoLiz Young, Joe Terranova, Anastasia Amoroso, and Steve Weiss join 'Halftime Report' to discuss the relationship between yields and equities, expectations for mega-cap tech earnings, and whether yields are topping out.
Persons: iCapital's Anastasia Amoroso Liz Young, Joe Terranova, Anastasia Amoroso, Steve Weiss Locations: delinquencies
The bank's net interest income - the difference between interest earned and paid - rose nearly 24% to 183.08 billion rupees, while asset quality also improved. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KTKM.NS), the fourth largest Indian bank by market capitalisation, reported a 21% rise in loans for the second quarter, which contributed to a 24% increase in standalone net profit. Indian banks have consistently clocked double-digit loan growth over the past few months due to rising demand for credit, amid increased consumer spending. However, the banking regulator has been concerned about a sharp rise in unsecured loans - mostly personal loans and credit cards. "Although concerns (in the unsecured book) remain, they are not currently significant," said the bank's MD Prashant Kumar.
Persons: Dipak Gupta, Prashant Kumar, Siddhi Nayak, Clelia Oziel, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Yes Bank, Siddhi, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI
A record number of subprime borrowers are behind on auto loan payments by more than 60 days. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementA record number of subprime borrowers are behind on their auto loan payments by 60 days or more, according to figures from Fitch Ratings reported by Bloomberg. More than a third of Americans are considered subprime borrowers, according to an Experian study, meaning they have lower credit scores and are deemed less likely to meet their repayments on loans. AdvertisementAdvertisementFor subprime borrowers, rates for new cars average 11.5% and 18.5% for used autos, according to Experian.
Persons: , Margaret Rowe, Zers Organizations: Fitch, Bloomberg, Service, CNN, Fed, Economic, Cox Automotive Locations: Edmunds
Minneapolis CNN —Ballpark attendance boomed this summer, Barbenheimer revived the box office and a Renaissance of live performances brought concerts into new Eras. However, it also could mean that holiday spending just might look a little different and skewed more toward experiences than it has done in past years. Respondents to KPMG’s 2023 holiday survey said they plan to spend 5% more this season, said Matt Kramer, KPMG’s consumer and retail national sector leader. “What stands out the most is this ‘leaning in’ to holiday travel and wanting to have those experiences with friends and family,” he said. A more comprehensive look at consumer spending will come at the tail end of the month when the Personal Consumption Expenditures data is released.
Persons: Barbenheimer, Everybody, , Keith Gentili, ” Taylor Swift, Allen J, , Ted Rossman, that’s, ’ ”, aren’t, Matt Kramer, Tamara Charm, Elijah Nouvelage, Patrick T, Fallon, Gus Faucher, Nathan Howard, Nancy Vanden Houten, , ” Rossman, Matt Schulz Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, New Hampshire, Los Angeles Times, Getty, Bankrate, McKinsey, Travelers, Hartsfield, Jackson Atlanta International Airport, Bloomberg, Commerce, Apple, PNC Financial Services, Shoppers, canaries, LendingTree Locations: Minneapolis, New, Inglewood , California, splurge, , Los Angeles, AFP, Georgetown, Washington, what’s, Oxford
While bad loans in India's banking sector are at a decade-low, estimated at 3.6% of assets by March 2024 by the central bank, Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said this month the central bank was monitoring some categories of personal loans, without elaborating. What's worrying the regulator is a surge in tiny personal loans, particularly loans of up to 10,000 rupees ($120) taken for three to four months, often for "lifestyle" spending, according to a person familiar with the central bank's thinking. Four people discussed the central bank's concerns with Reuters but declined to be identified as they are not authorised to speak to the media. Ismail Sayyed, a 30-year old cab driver from Mumbai, took his first personal loan of 5,000 rupees this year. Central bank officials "have been ringing the bell", said an official at a large bank that has seen sharp growth in personal loans.
Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, Shaktikanta Das, CRIF, Ismail Sayyed, Kadam, Rajeev Jain, Ira Dugal, Sonali Paul Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, REUTERS, Reuters, Bajaj Finance, UBS, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFifth Third Bank CEO: Our credit metrics have been very well-behaved as delinquencies declinedFifth Third Bank CEO Timothy Spence joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the company's quarterly earnings results, the lower-than-expected credit provisions, and the risks Fifth Third is willing to take going forward.
Persons: delinquencies, Timothy Spence Organizations: Third Bank, Fifth Third Bank
Daniel Bustamante, the hedge-fund CIO who won big in his short bet against shares of Carvana last year, is now betting millions of dollars that the housing market will slow significantly. Bustamante's call for home prices is an outlier in terms of where most Wall Street economists see the housing market headed. ATTOMAnother sign that things may go sour in the housing market is that institutional investors, or "smart money", has increasingly stopped buying residential properties, he said. RedfinAgain, Bustamante sees significant downside to home prices ahead. Recession warnings on Wall Street have become quieter in recent months as jobs and consumer spending data have held up.
Persons: Daniel Bustamante, DR, they'll, Bustamante, Bustamante anecdotally, ATTOM Organizations: Bustamante & Co, KB, Federal, National Locations: Carvana, Maricopa County , Arizona
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