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☆ Home shoppers, don't despair. Bargains are out there, particularly in these pandemic boomtowns.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Pandemic boomtowns like Austin, Texas; Boise, Idaho; and Phoenix are seeing big discounts. Read on for the top 10 cities and how much home prices have declined in the past year. This has led to some robust price cuts, especially in previously hot pandemic boomtowns — like Austin, Texas; Boise, Idaho, and Phoenix — where prices surged and homebuilders have been adding inventory. The company analyzed the median price per square foot in 100 of the largest US metropolitan areas, and considered the change in prices in the year through May. Take Austin, where the median home price has fallen 7.7% since May 2022 but is still $142,751 above the national median of $441,000.

Persons: Realtor.com, —, Mark Zandi, There's, Danielle Hale, Austin Organizations: Service, Phoenix, Moody's Locations: Austin , Texas, Boise , Idaho, Myrtle Beach , South Carolina, North Port , Florida, Myrtle Beach

☆ Americans’ buying power rose for first time since March 2021 amid falling inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Images By Tang Ming Tung | Digitalvision | Getty Images"This is clearly a function of inflation starting to come down," Terrazas said. 'Unprecedented' pay jumps during pandemicWage growth started to spike in 2021 as workers enjoyed the benefits of a hot job market. In some cases, workers' pay growth was strong enough to outrun inflation's impact — especially for those who quit their jobs for higher-paying gigs elsewhere. Meanwhile, wage growth has also declined but at a slower pace — translating to a net boost to Americans' financial well-being in May relative to last year. These data sets are more inclusive than that of wage growth.

Persons: Tang Ming Tung, Terrazas, Julia Pollak, Pollak, Mark Zandi, Aaron Terrazas, Zandi Organizations: ZipRecruiter, CPI, . Bureau, Moody's, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ U.S. National Debt Tops $32 Trillion for First Time
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Alan Rappeport | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

But the debt is on track to top $50 trillion by the end of the decade even after newly passed spending cuts are taken into account. Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said during the standoff in May that spending cuts proposed by lawmakers failed to address the costs of social safety net programs. While avoiding a default would prevent an immediate crisis, he said, the ballooning debt is a persistent problem that needs to be addressed. A failure to pass and reconcile House and Senate bills by Oct. 1 could lead to a government shutdown. At the same time, House Republicans started considering a new round of tax cuts this week.

Persons: Mark Zandi, Mr, Zandi, Biden, Kevin McCarthy Organizations: Congressional, Republican majority’s, Republicans, Federal

☆ Auto insurers are raising rates, even as car prices ease. 'The pandemic has been really disruptive to the auto repair business,' economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

About a third (31%) of U.S. auto insurance customers say they experienced a rate increase during the past year, according to a recent study by J.D. Many factors have conspired to push up the cost of car repairs, which ultimately feeds through to insurance prices, economists said. "The pandemic has been really disruptive to the auto repair business," he said. Auto insurers lost 12 cents on each dollar of customer premiums paid in 2022, on average, according to J.D. Vehicle prices moderate after pandemic-era surgeFurther, vehicle prices began rising at a rapid clip in the first half of 2021.

Persons: Mark Zandi, Power, Zandi, Charlie Chesbrough, Chesbrough Organizations: Moody's, U.S . Department of Transportation, Auto, Cox Automotive, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: ., U.S

☆ A.I. will create winners and losers across the job market: Mark Zandi
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Mark Licea | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Artificial intelligence presents both challenges and opportunities for workers and employees, said Moody's Analytics' chief economist, Mark Zandi. You should be able to command a higher wage and benefit from the fact that AI is lifting everyone's productivity for businesses," said Zandi. However, some employees worry that their job is at risk while companies may leverage the technology to save on labor costs. While advances in AI have the potential to change a lot of business practices, the technology is still in the early stages. It kind of stirs the pot, creates winners and losers," Zandi told CNBC.

Persons: Mark Zandi, Zandi Organizations: CNBC

☆ How A.I. will change the job market: Mark Zandi
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Mark Licea | Lindsey Jacobson | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHow A.I. will change the job market: Mark ZandiThe biggest factors contributing to companies' bottom lines right now are high interest rates and artificial intelligence, says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. In this episode of "The Bottom Line," he discusses key risks for companies including climate change, inflation and whether the U.S. will remain the world's leading economy.

Persons: Mark Zandi Organizations: Moody's Locations: U.S

☆ Why economists say it's a near certainty that housing inflation will soon fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

That gives housing an outsized influence on the overall direction of inflation data. Housing inflation has been stubbornly high for months, according to CPI data. But economists think it has peaked and is on the precipice of a reversal. "I know this with about as high a degree of confidence as one could have," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said of falling housing inflation being near at hand. The latest CPI reading, issued Tuesday, showed a monthly increase in shelter inflation, to 0.6% in May from 0.4% in April.

Persons: Richard Newstead, Mark Zandi, Andrew Hunter, Jason Furman, Obama Organizations: Moody's, Capital Economics, CNBC, Finance, Social Security, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Harvard University, White House Council, Economic Advisers, Twitter, CPI

☆ Strength of the consumer will help the U.S. avoid recession, says Moody's Analytics' Mark Zandi
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStrength of the consumer will help the U.S. avoid recession, says Moody's Analytics' Mark ZandiMark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss economic headwinds, the need for a Fed pause, and the strength of the U.S. consumer.

Persons: Zandi Mark Zandi Organizations: Moody's

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Tech is loving the possible rate pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Hopes for a pause in interest rates helped to send stocks higher Monday. (Higher rates today lower the value of tech's growth tomorrow.) Big Tech stocks mostly rose at least 1%; Apple even hit an all-time high of $183.79 per share. On an average day, 80.6 million shares of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, a tracker of the broad S&P 500 index, are traded.

Persons: Tim Cook, Mark Zandi, Oracle's, That's Organizations: Apple Inc, Apple Vision, Apple Worldwide, Apple, CNBC, Traders, Federal Reserve, Moody's Analytics, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Trust, Tech Locations: Cupertino , California, That's

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Everyone's expecting inflation to slow down
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. (Higher rates today lower the value of tech's growth tomorrow.) Big Tech stocks mostly rose at least 1%; Apple even hit an all-time high of $183.79 per share. The S&P 500 added 0.93%, further adding to the gains it's accumulated over the past few days, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.56%. On an average day, 80.6 million shares of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, a tracker of the broad S&P 500 index, are traded.

Persons: Mark Zandi, Oracle's, That's Organizations: CNBC, Traders, Federal Reserve, Moody's Analytics, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Trust, Tech Locations: That's

☆ Inflation report Tuesday will be critical for the direction of Fed policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Inflation data from May will show that the price increases that have been bedeviling consumers for the past two years are slowing down. Those kinds of numbers could encourage policymakers that inflation is headed in the right direction, after it peaked above 9% in June 2022. "The headline number is going to feel good, it's going to be encouraging, showing inflation is moving in the right direction. More fundamentally, I think inflation is moving in the right direction." After a year of insisting inflation wouldn't last, the Fed in March 2022 began what would be a series of 10 interest rate hikes.

Persons: Dow Jones, Mark Zandi Organizations: Federal Reserve, Moody's Locations: San Francisco , California

☆ The case for a 2023 US recession is crumbling
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Many CEOs, investors and economists had penciled in 2023 as the year when a recession would hit the American economy. But the case for a 2023 US recession is crumbling for a simple reason: America’s jobs market is way too strong. Zandi is growing more confident that 2023 won’t be the year when a downturn will begin. “We’re running out of time for a 2023 recession,” Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan, told CNN. Friday’s jobs report did offer some conflicting signals, especially in the household survey, which economists put less weight on because it tends to be noisier.

Persons: Mark Zandi, won’t, ” Zandi, “, Justin Wolfers, “ We’ve, payrolls, Wolfers, They’ve, ” Wolfers, ” Macy’s, Zandi, Joe Brusuelas, Morgan Stanley Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Moody’s, CNN, University of Michigan, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bank of America, Challenger, RSM Locations: New York, ”

☆ Student-loan borrowers are about to be thrown back into repayment, and the economy will suffer — especially if Biden's debt cancellation is struck down
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-04 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Education Secretary Miguel Cardona has confirmed student-loan payments will resume this year. In March 2020, former President Donald Trump first implemented the student-loan payment pause to give borrowers financial relief during the pandemic. 'We're looking at a pretty severe fiscal contraction'Steinbaum previously told Insider that the economy has been "more than fine" without borrowers' student-loan payments. But they're a weight, it's about 20 million student-loan borrowers that haven't been paying, they'll have to begin paying more or less in September," Zandi said. Democratic lawmakers have been sounding the alarm on the harmful impacts a payment resumption would have without Biden's broad debt relief.

Persons: Miguel Cardona, —, It's, Donald Trump, Trump, Joe Biden, — Biden, We're, Cardona, Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Marshall Steinbaum, Steinbaum, Mark Zandi, haven't, Zandi, that's, it's, Ayanna Pressley, Countess, Ro Khanna Organizations: Supreme, Service, Education, Family Institute, University of Utah, Education Department, Moody's, CNBC, Relief, Getty, Democratic, Massachusetts, Twitter Locations: Washington ,

☆ With these many jobs, do we no longer have to worry about a recession?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-03 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But for every recession alarm bell, the continued strength in the labor market seems to be an answer to those worries. “I think even in a recession environment, we’re going to have a relatively strong job market. “It’s still possible that the case of avoiding a recession is, in my view, more likely than that of having a recession. Jobs market still hot, but coolingThat’s not to say that the jobs market hasn’t slowed down. Powell said he’s not particularly worried about the cooling of the labor market over the last year.

Persons: That’s, ”, Jamie Cox, they’re, Mark Zandi, “, I’ve, we’ve, Dave Gilbertson, Jerome Powell, “ We’ve, ” Powell, It’s, Julia Pollock, Powell, he’s, —, ZipRecruiter’s Pollock, – CNN’s Bryan Mena Organizations: New, New York CNN, Labor Department, Costco, Federal Reserve, Harris Financial Group, Moody’s Analytics, Target, Labor Locations: New York

☆ Measuring inflation can be tricky and quirky. Here are 3 examples
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

HousingRichard Newstead | Moment | Getty ImagesHousing is perhaps the most consequential category in the consumer price index, a key inflation barometer. But Covid-19 warped that dynamic: Housing costs shot up but have slowed and even started to fall in some areas, economists said. Overall inflation is expected to slow sharply during the second half of the year as the CPI incorporates the housing price cooldown, economists said. The government doesn't calculate health insurance inflation by measuring consumers' direct costs, such as monthly premiums. Health insurance inflation readings may flip positive in fall 2023 and persist into 2024 due to this dynamic, Zandi said.

Persons: Housing Richard Newstead, Zandi, Price, Mark Zandi, Andrew Hunter, Hunter, There's, Jordi Mora Igual Organizations: Housing, Capital Economics, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, CPI, Health, Images, Kaiser Family Foundation, Consumers

Analysts say the proposed debt ceiling deal could have only marginal effects on the US economy. "The impacts will be negative but small," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN. Here's what's in the proposed deal and how it would show up in the broader economy:What's in the deal? It would keep non-defense spending relatively flat in fiscal 2024 and then set a cap of 1% in spending increases for fiscal 2025. The debt deal and GDP.

Persons: Mark Zandi, Goldman Sachs, Ian Shepherdson, Gregory Daco Organizations: Moody's, CNN, Internal Revenue Service, Pantheon, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: West Virginia

☆ Investors are losing hope for a Fed pause and bracing for another interest-rate hike instead. Here's what 8 experts have predicted.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Investors are losing hope that the Federal Reserve will pause its interest-rate hikes in June. For example, several market experts have warned the commercial real estate industry is at risk if the Fed keeps raising borrowing costs. "But I do think it's possible they're going to raise a little more. Ed Yardeni, market veteran"The market has been remarkably resilient, mostly because the economy has been remarkably resilient," Yardeni said in a CNBC interview. "So I think they're where they want to be – and I think they're going to keep it here."

Persons: They're, —, Mohamed El, David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, Solomon, It's, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Doom, Roubini, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Mark Nash, Nash Organizations: Federal, Service, Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic, Fed, Erian, Allianz, CNBC's, JPMorgan, CNBC, Bloomberg, NYU Stern, Jupiter Asset Management

☆ Debt ceiling deal won’t have much impact on the US economy, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The US economy is the world’s largest, so the relatively modest effects on growth could be good news for investors who feared the debt ceiling crisis could have posed a greater and more widespread drag. Here’s what’s in the proposed deal and how it would show up in the broader economy. What’s in the debt ceiling dealThe deal would suspend the federal government’s $31.4 trillion debt limit through January 2025. The debt deal and GDPEconomists at Goldman Sachs expect the deal to reduce federal spending by as much as 0.2% of gross domestic product per year over the two years of the deal, compared with their baseline estimate. “Getting this uncertainty out of the way for markets and decision makers has a real impact,” said Mike Skordeles, head of US economics at Truist Advisory Services.

Persons: Joe Biden, Mark Zandi, Biden, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Ian Shepherdson, Gregory Daco, ”, Mike Skordeles, Zandi, ” Michael Reynolds Organizations: DC CNN, House Republicans, Moody’s, CNN, Internal Revenue Service, Congressional, Pantheon, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Truist Advisory Services, Investment, “ Locations: Washington, West Virginia

☆ McCarthy and Biden's debt-ceiling deal could hurt student-loan borrowers and people on food stamps — and cost some Americans their jobs
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Hannah Getahun | Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Biden and McCarthy finally reached a deal to raise the debt ceiling on Saturday night. The deal strengthens work requirements on welfare programs and codifies the end of the student-loan payment pause. The deal also alters Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program work requirements for those between 18-54 who do no not have children and are able to work. The financial intelligence agency added that the new work requirements for income support programs could additionally result in tens of thousands of lost jobs. Still, it's vital a bill to raise the debt ceiling gets signed into law because a default could mean a recessions — and millions more jobs lost as a result.

☆ Lifting pause on student debt repayments will hit consumer spending, says Moody's Mark Zandi
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLifting pause on student debt repayments will hit consumer spending, says Moody's Mark ZandiMark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss ending the pause on student loan debt repayment, the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on President Biden's student loan forgiveness plan, and the resilience of the labor market.

Persons: Mark Zandi Mark Zandi, Biden's Organizations: Moody's

☆ This is the calamity Washington is trying to avoid with a debt ceiling deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( Samantha Delouya | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —At long last, the White House and House Republicans have reached a tentative agreement to raise the debt ceiling. Every day that passes without a bill to raise the debt ceiling, the probability of the United States reaching the critical date that it can no longer meet its financial obligations steadily grows. Absent a bill passed by Congress and signed by Biden, Treasury will likely do everything in its power to avoid a debt default. In contrast to debt payments, government payments like Social Security or federal worker salaries aren’t considered debt instruments, so they are less likely to come into play when the agencies rate the United States’ debt. Though prioritizing debt payments might stave off an even-greater economic collapse, the United States may not emerge unscathed.

☆ Famed economist David Rosenberg says home prices are set to fall further as buyers retreat to the sidelines and a hawkish Fed means stubbornly high mortgage rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

With mortgage rates unlikely to budge and incomes unlikely to grow, prices are due to drop. Housing affordability is calculated by accounting for three variables: home prices, mortgage rates, and incomes. Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics who said in the 2005 that a housing downturn would spark a recession, made the same argument in recent weeks. Now that's quite striking because mortgage rates are no longer at peak, but applications are still falling. This would send interest rates — and therefore mortgage rates, which trade closely with Treasury rates — higher, further hurting demand and affordability, Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi recently told Fortune.

☆ The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge just heated up — and that could mean another rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The closely watched core PCE index — where volatile components of food and energy are excluded — unexpectedly ticked up: The Fed’s go-to gauge was up 4.7% for the year. In March, the core PCE gauge grew by 4.6%. Economists had forecast that core PCE would hold steady at 4.6%, according to Refinitiv. Consumer spending jumped 0.8% in April from March, double what economists had expected. Excluding the effects of inflation, real consumer spending increased 0.5%, reflecting a boost seen from new car purchases, according to the report.

☆ Explainer: How could a US debt ceiling default hit regular Americans?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-23 | by ( Jason Lange | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Americans could quickly notice painful blows to their retirement accounts as stock markets swooned, and within days the lack of federal payments could weigh heavily on doctors' offices, retirees and workplaces throughout the country. At that point, Washington would be under severe pressure to keep making payments on U.S. bonds, which underpin the global financial system. Within days, the financial mayhem would be a principal force putting the economy on the path to recession, Zandi said. More Medicare bills would come due in subsequent days, and because Medicare funds about a fifth of U.S. healthcare, some doctors might not have money to pay staff and other bills. Payments could also stop going out to government contractors, including $1 billion due to defense contractors on June 5.

☆ Analysis: Why we may need a stock market plunge to solve the debt ceiling crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

They know how it ends: with politicians waiting until the last minute before giving in and finally raising the debt ceiling before disaster strikes. On Friday, it looked like the White House and Republicans were getting closer to a deal on the debt ceiling before talks unexpectedly broke down. In 2011, the most serious near-default in American history, markets experienced volatility in the days and weeks before Washington reached a last-minute deal to raise the debt ceiling. None of this is to say markets are completely ignoring the debt ceiling drama today. The debt ceiling is a manufactured crisis that officials could have dealt with months ago.

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