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download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe vast majority of economists see a recession as unlikely in the next year, according to the latest survey from the National Association of Business Economics. New results out Monday showed 91% now assign a probability of 50% or less for a slowdown in the next 12 months. AdvertisementOnly 9% of respondents reported a recession being more likely than not, down from 18% in the previous survey. Since 1968, the recession indicator has gone eight for eight in preceding a recession.
Persons: , Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, Campbell Harvey Organizations: Service, National Association of Business Economics, Business, The University of, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department
An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession since 1969. When the yield curve inverted in November 2022, he said it was a false signal. AdvertisementWall Street has ramped up its soft-landing calls for 2024, but a renowned economic expert who popularized the most famous recession indicator in markets says to expect a downturn this year. He said the inverted yield curve, in one sense, is a self-fulfilling prophecy as it signals to companies and investors that a slowdown is looming, which then alters spending and business behavior and ultimately leads to less activity. Advertisement"It makes the yield curve causal," Harvey said.
Persons: , Campbell Harvey, Harvey, Jack Farley, he's Organizations: Service, Duke University, Federal Locations: Canadian
Read previewThe housing market is coming off its weakest year of home sales since 1995, according to data out Friday from the National Association of Realtors. For the full 12 months, total existing home sales hit 4.09 million units, and sales were lower across all regions in the US year-over-year. Related stories"The latest month's sales look to be the bottom before inevitably turning higher in the new year," NAR economist Lawrence Yun said. AdvertisementTotal existing home sales, year-over-year. "Despite sluggish home sales, 85 million homeowning households enjoyed further gains in housing wealth," Yun said.
Persons: , Lawrence Yun, Freddie Mac, Yun Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors, Business, NAR Locations: homeownership
By Greta Rosen Fondahn(Reuters) - Some 160 people who applied for asylum at Finland's eastern border last year have since disappeared, amid a sudden surge of asylum seekers arriving via Russia, Finland's immigration authority said. Finland closed its eastern border with Russia late last year amidst a growing number of arrivals from countries including Syria and Somalia. Now 160 people are missing from reception centres, most with unknown whereabouts, Migri's Director of the Asylum Unit, Antti Lehtinen told Reuters. Earlier in January, Finland extended the closure of its border with Russia until Feb. 11, saying it was likely that the inflow of asylum seekers would restart if the border opened. "Smuggling activities have taken advantage of the border security disruptions on the eastern border," the coast guard said in a statement.
Persons: Greta Rosen Fondahn, Migri, Antti Lehtinen, " Lehtinen, Lehtinen, Sauli Niinisto, Greta Rosen, Anne Kauranen, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Kremlin, Asylum Unit, Reuters, EU, Finnish Border Guard Locations: Russia, Finland, Syria, Somalia, Moscow, Netherlands, Belgium, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, Switzerland, EU
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment gauge surged in January to 78.8, the highest since July 2021. Year-ahead inflation expectations softened to 2.9%, hitting the lowest since December 2020. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment gauge jumped to 78.8 in January, the highest mark since July 2021. "Encouragingly for the Federal Reserve consumer inflation expectations fell in January, with 1-year inflation expectations falling to a 3-year low in January." Long-run inflation expectations eased to 2.8%, below the 2.9%-3.0% range seen for 26 of the last 30 months, the survey noted.
Persons: , Sam Millette, Sal Naro, headcount Organizations: of, Service, University of, Commonwealth Financial Network, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Commerce Department, Downside, Busines
Sam Brown, whose backing in Washington, D.C., and formidable 2022 campaign have made him a fundraising juggernaut above the crowded primary field. “Don’t vote for Sam Brown. “Nevada Republicans are uniting behind Donald Trump and Sam Brown because they are the only conservative champions who can defeat Biden and Rosen in November.”Former U.S. The last GOP primary debate between Florida Gov. Two years ago, Brown was a longshot Senate candidate who criticized Republican front-runner Adam Laxalt for agreeing only to a pre-recorded debate instead of a live, prime-time broadcast.
Persons: Sam Brown, Brown, , , Bill Conrad, Brown’s, Donald Trump, Jacky Rosen, Biden, Rosen, Iceland Jeff Gunter, ” Gunter, Jim Marchant, Tony Grady, Stephanie Phillips, Ronda Kennedy, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Adam Laxalt, ” Brown, Mitch McConnell, Laxalt, Catherine Cortez Masto, Democratic Sen, ” Kennedy, ___ Stern, Stern Organizations: — Seven, Republican U.S, Washington , D.C, Army, , “ Nevada Republicans, ” Former U.S, Air Force, Florida Gov, Republicans, Republican, GOP, Democratic, Associated Press, America Statehouse News Initiative, America Locations: RENO, Nev, Nevada, Reno, Washington ,, U.S, Modesto , California, “ Nevada, ” Former, Iceland, Washington
Read previewFormer President Donald Trump winning the White House in 2024 would create a "nightmare" for China, especially with president-elect William Lai Ching-te at Taiwan's helm, an analyst on China said. Advertisement"Beijing's real nightmare scenario is not necessarily watching Lai Ching-te winning the presidency of Taiwan, but it's the combination of Lai Ching-te and perhaps Donald Trump coming back into the White House," Daniels said. "He was a transactional president," Rosen said. Trump followed up by suggesting that the US may one day abandon its agreement to the "one China policy," Beijing's red-line stance that Taiwan is part of China. Cross-strait tensions soared, but just two months later, Trump called Xi and agreed that the US would uphold the "one China policy."
Persons: , Donald Trump, William Lai Ching, Lai, it's Trump, Rorry Daniels, Lai Ching, Daniels, Trump, Mike Pompeo, Pompeo, Xi Jinping's, Stanley Rosen, It's, Rosen, Tsai Ing, Wen, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley Organizations: Service, White House, Business, Democratic Progressive Party, Foreign Affairs Ministry, Lai's, Asia Society, Center for, Nikkei, Taiwan, University of Southern, China Institute, Xi, GOP, Iowa Republican Locations: China, Taiwan's, Beijing, Taiwan, Center for China, Nikkei Asia, University of Southern California's US, Hong Kong, Taipei, Iowa
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewHackers are getting smarter and increasingly keen on infiltrating JPMorgan, according to Mary Callahan Erdoes, the bank's asset and wealth management chief. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. A 2023 KPMG survey of bank executives found that more than two-thirds of respondents considered cybercrime a top concern moving forward. Net interest income, or the ratio of what banks earn on loans and pay back on deposits, helped fuel those lofty numbers thanks to a surge in interest rates and higher revolving credit card balances, the company said.
Persons: , Mary Callahan Erdoes, Erdoes Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Business, Economic, Bloomberg, KPMG Locations: Davos
Nik Shah, a housing expert who was spot-on in his forecast for last year, said prices could climb 7% in 2024. "Barring a black swan event, we predict that the housing market in 2024 will appreciate more than 2023," Shah told the real estate outlet. Related storiesFor reference, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index notched a 4.8% annual gain up to October 2023, in line with Shah's estimate. At the same time, aging boomers will lead to an uptick in housing supply, which will should help ease prices. Meanwhile, findings from a separate Zillow survey suggest that the housing market could be breaking free from the "rate lock" phenomenon that froze activity last year.
Persons: Nik Shah, ResiClub, , Shah, hasn't, Gen Z Organizations: Service, metros, Owners Locations: Austin, Boise, Denver
Listen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | SpotifyArrowhead Stadium, the home of the Kansas City Chiefs, the N.F.L.’s defending champions, is a very loud place. telecast, “Sunday Night Football,” arrived at Arrowhead to prepare for that evening’s game against the Detroit Lions. Kickoff game, traditionally hosted by the winner of last season’s Super Bowl. There would be speeches, fireworks, a military flyover, the unfurling of a championship banner. “It can present some problems.”Broadcasting a football game on live television is one of the most complex technical and logistical challenges in entertainment.
Persons: Brian Melillo, , ” Melillo, Jody Rosen Organizations: Spotify, Kansas City Chiefs, NBC Sports ’, Detroit Lions, ” Broadcasting Locations: Arrowhead
As of September, US credit-card delinquency rates were at the highest rate in a decade. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said 3.2% of card balances were at least 30 days past due. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In the second quarter of 2021, credit card delinquency rates were at historic lows.
Persons: Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Service, Philadelphia, Business
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Automakers Geely and Great Wall Motor similarly saw a sharp uptick in car sales to Russia. A combination of soaring prices, weak consumer sentiment, and dwindling supply has sent domestic car sales crashing to roughly a quarter of pre-war times. "Russians are just buying less cars, period," researcher Steven Tian said in an interview with Business Insider at the time.
Persons: , Geely, BYD, Steven Tian Organizations: Service, Wall, Business, China Passenger Car Association, Chery, Elon Musk's, Yale Locations: Ukraine, Moscow, China, Japan, Russia
The value of the housing market across the nation's 50 largest metro areas has hit $23.48 trillion, LendingTree said. New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco are the metro areas with the most valuable housing markets. AdvertisementThe US housing market has soared in value over the last few years. A new LendingTree report found that the total value of owner-occupied housing units across the biggest 50 metro areas in the US has reached $23.48 trillion. In 2020 and 2021, many Americans secured mortgage rates of about 3% for a 30-year fixed rate loan.
Persons: LendingTree, Organizations: Service, Business Locations: New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco
One market strategist doesn't expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2024. The strategist added soaring prices and shipping delays are set to surprise the Fed and markets. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Tracy Schuchart, chief executive and chief energy and materials strategist at Hightower Resource Advisors, told Fox Business on Monday that she doesn't expect the Fed to cut interest rates at all in 2024.
Persons: doesn't, , Tracy Schuchart Organizations: Federal Reserve, Shipping, Service, Resource Advisors, Fox Business, Business
The national office vacancy rate has hit a record 19.6%, according to Moody's Analytics. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAmerica's offices are trending in the wrong direction, even as the broader US economy looks to be on solid footing. According to a report from Moody's Analytics, which described the US office market as being in "uncharted territory" in a report on Monday, the national office vacancy rate climbed 40 basis points last quarter to a record-breaking 19.6%.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Moody's, Capital
The state of the US housing market in 5 charts
  + stars: | 2024-01-05 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
Read previewThe US housing market is facing historic unaffordability and it's kept countless Americans sidelined or forced to face hefty monthly home payments. This lock-in effect has created a tale of two markets: those who have been crushed by high mortgage rates and those who have mostly gotten by unaffected. Many Americans secured lower mortgage rates during the pandemic. AdvertisementBut in 2023, that dearth of supply for existing homes was a boon for homebuilders — and Wall Street took notice. William BlairFreddie Mac Multi-family Home Serious Delinquency Rate William Blair, Freddie MacUltimately, in 2024 William Blair forecasts supply to improve, mortgage rates to fall, and existing homeowners to return to the market out of necessity.
Persons: , it's, William Blair, Richard de Chazal, homebuilders, William Blair's, de Chazal, William Blair Freddie Mac, Freddie Mac Organizations: Service, Industry, Business, National Association of Realtors, Federal, Wall, Bloomberg
Here's what the real estate firm expects for the housing market over the next 12 months. AdvertisementSoftening lock-in effectIn the last two years, homeowners have been unwilling to sell their homes because of the lower mortgage rates they secured previously. AdvertisementNo housing market crashLow rates could spark some additional homebuying, but demand will ultimately stay muted and the market will "continue to move sluggishly," according to LendingTree. A separate November survey from LendingTree found that 41% of Americans at the time expected the housing market to crash in 2024. At the same time, LendingTree maintains that the housing market will stay "prohibitively expensive" for Americans, regardless of how rates move.
Persons: , Jacob Channel, LendingTree Organizations: Service, Business, Federal
Markets are betting the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as soon as early 2024. AdvertisementWall Street largely anticipates that the Federal Reserve has finished its interest rate-hiking cycle, and markets are betting central bankers will begin easing policy soon. Tom Barkin, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond president, November 29: "If inflation comes down naturally and smoothly, awesome. Mary Daly, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco president, November 30: "I'm not thinking about rate cuts at all right now. John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of New York president, November 30: "My assessment is that we are at, or near, the peak level of the target range of the federal funds rate."
Persons: Jerome Powell, , CME's, Christopher Waller, Tom Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Mary Daly, John Williams, Williams Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, ING, Barclays, Federal Reserve Bank, Richmond, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal
US job openings in October fell to their lowest level since 2021. In October, available job openings fell to 8.7 million from a downwardly revised 9.4 million in September. Driven largely by the retail sector, the number of job openings dipped from a downwardly revised 9.4 million job openings in September, to 8.7 million by the end of October, below the consensus forecast among economists surveyed by Bloomberg, and the lowest level since early 2021. AdvertisementThe latest job opening figures reinforce the case for a soft-landing scenario — job openings are moving higher yet the unemployment has remained relatively low. "By that ratio, a measure of labor market tightness often cited by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the labor market has slackened substantially in recent months."
Persons: It's, , Julia Pollak, Jerome Powell, Pollak, CME's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, Fed, ING, Barclays
LAS VEGAS (AP) — A planned high-speed rail line between Las Vegas and the Los Angeles area got a Biden administration pledge on Tuesday of $3 billion to help start laying track, Nevada elected officials said. But Rosen said electric-powered trains could be carrying passengers by the time Los Angeles hosts the Summer Olympics in 2028. “Connecting Las Vegas and Southern California by high-speed rail will create tens of thousands of good-paying union jobs, boost our Southern Nevada tourism economy, and finally help us cut down on I-15 traffic," Cortez Masto said Tuesday in a statement. Calls for a high-speed rail line whisking tourists through the Mojave Desert to Las Vegas date at least to 2001, said U.S. Rep. Dina Titus, a Democrat who represents the Las Vegas Strip. Other places where high-speed trains have been proposed include the 240 miles (386 kilometers) in Texas between Dallas and Houston, and a 500-mile (805-kilometer) system linking Los Angeles and San Francisco that has faced swelling costs, funding questions and other delays.
Persons: Sen, Jacky Rosen, Rosen, , ” Wes Edens, Joe Biden, Catherine Cortez Masto, Biden, Cortez Masto, Dina Titus Organizations: LAS VEGAS, Brightline, Angeles, Nevada -, U.S, Rep, Democrat, Las, Brightline Holdings Locations: Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Nevada, U.S, Florida, California, Victorville , California, San Bernardino County, Rancho Cucamonga, Nevada - California, Southern California, Southern Nevada, Florida's, Miami, Orlando, Texas, Dallas, Houston, San Francisco
WASHINGTON (AP) — Prosecutors pushed back Monday against Hunter Biden's move to subpoena documents from Donald Trump and former Justice Department officials in the firearms case filed against the president's son. They argued that Hunter Biden doesn't have enough evidence to support his claims of potential political interference in the criminal investigation against him and urged a judge to reject the subpoena requests. The investigation into Hunter Biden’s taxes and a gun purchase began in 2018, while Trump, a Republican, was still president. The charges against Hunter Biden allege he broke laws against drug users having guns in 2018. No new tax charges have yet been filed, but the special counsel overseeing the case has indicated they are possible in California, where Hunter Biden lives.
Persons: Hunter Biden's, Donald Trump, Hunter Biden doesn't, , Leo Wise, Hunter, Trump, weren’t, Wise, Maryellen Noreika, William Barr, Jeffrey Rosen, Richard Donoghue, Barr, Hunter Biden Organizations: WASHINGTON, — Prosecutors, Justice Department, Republican, U.S, District, Trump, U.S . Capitol, Democrat Locations: California
Behind the Scenes of the Most Spectacular Show On TV
  + stars: | 2023-12-02 | by ( Jody Rosen | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +4 min
On the possession that followed the Lions’ touchdown, the Chiefs stalled, punting with 5:07 left. And then drama turned to farce, as Mahomes’s receivers let him down and penalties pushed the Chiefs backward. Mahomes took the snap, rolled left and launched a throw that arced across the line to gain, reaching the fingertips of the receiver Skyy Moore, who couldn’t clasp it. On the air, Tirico said: “The Detroit Lions are right there.” In the truck, Hyland’s pronouncement was less circumspect. One measure of the success of “Sunday Night Football” is how “Sunday Night Football”-ish the competing broadcasts are looking.
Persons: ” Collinsworth, Campbell, Tirico, , Jawaan Taylor, Skycam, Hyland, Esocoff, , Mahomes, Skyy Moore, Chiefs weren’t, Gaudelli, “ There’s, Tom Brady, Peyton, Eli, refigures Organizations: Lions, Chiefs, , NBC, doleful Chiefs, Detroit Lions, CBS, Fox, Fox Sports, bros, NFL Locations: Detroit
LAS VEGAS (AP) — A federal grand jury has indicted a Las Vegas man arrested last month on suspicion of making antisemitic threats against U.S. Senator Jacky Rosen and her family, along with the family of another U.S. senator, according to court records. Rosen, a Democrat from Nevada, is Jewish and has maintained a vocal pro-Israel stance, including support for U.S. aid to Israel. Miller is also accused of threatening the family of another unnamed U.S. senator, according to court records. “Senator Rosen trusts the U.S. Attorney’s office and federal law enforcement to handle this matter.”Miller's trial is scheduled for January, and he is currently in custody.
Persons: Jacky Rosen, Rosen, John Miller, Miller, Biden, Organizations: LAS VEGAS, , U.S, Democrat, Associated Press, Defamation Locations: Las Vegas, Nevada, Israel
U.S. oil company Phillips 66 headquarters in Houston, Texas, U.S., September 27, 2020. REUTERS/Gary McWilliams/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 30 (Reuters) - U.S. oil refiner Phillips 66 (PSX.N) has retained two top financial and legal advisers for its duel with activist investor Elliott Investment Management, according to a person familiar with the matter. Elliott wants two board seats to be filled by executives with refining experience and faster action on restructuring the fourth-largest U.S. oil refiner to improve its lagging financial performance, the New York activist said on Wednesday. Phillips 66 is relying on financial and legal advice from Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, the person familiar with the matter said. A Phillips 66 spokesman declined to comment on the advisers or whether it has new meetings scheduled with the activist.
Persons: Gary McWilliams, refiner Phillips, Elliott, Phillips, Goldman Sachs, Lipton, Katz, Tudor Pickering Holt, Matthew Blair, Blair, David French, Chizu Organizations: Phillips, REUTERS, Elliott Investment Management, New, Wachtell, Rosen, Tudor Pickering Holt & Co, Chevron, Thomson Locations: Houston , Texas, U.S, New York, Houston, CPChem
Talking About the 10 Best Books of 2023
  + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
It’s that time of year: After months of reading, arguing and (sometimes) happily agreeing, the Book Review’s editors have come up with their picks for the 10 Best Books of 2023. On this week’s podcast, Gilbert Cruz reveals the chosen titles — five fiction, five nonfiction — and talks with some of the editors who participated in the process. Here are the books discussed on this week’s episode:“The Bee Sting,” by Paul Murray“Chain-Gang All-Stars,” by Nana Kwame Adjei-Brenyah“Eastbound,” by Maylis de Kerangal“The Fraud,” by Zadie Smith“North Woods,” by Daniel Mason“The Best Minds,” by Jonathan Rosen“Bottoms Up and the Devil Laughs,” by Kerry Howley“Fire Weather,” by John Vaillant“Master Slave Husband Wife,” by Ilyon Woo“Some People Need Killing,” by Patricia EvangelistaWe would love to hear your thoughts about this episode, and about the Book Review’s podcast in general. You can send them to books@nytimes.com.
Persons: Gilbert Cruz, Sting, , Paul Murray “, Nana Kwame Adjei, Maylis, Zadie Smith, Daniel Mason “, Jonathan Rosen, Kerry Howley, John Vaillant “, Ilyon Woo, Patricia Evangelista Locations: Woods
Total: 25