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☆ Watch Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speak live on monetary policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks Friday at the "Perspectives on Monetary Policy" panel at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference the central bank is hosting in Washington, D.C. The remarks come with markets suddenly divided on where the Fed goes from here. Market pricing Friday morning indicated about a 35% probability the Fed might approve another interest rate hike when it meets in June, according to the CME Group. The Fed next week will release minutes from its meeting earlier in May at which it approved its 10th interest rate hike since March 2022. Read more:Dallas Fed President Logan says current data doesn't justify pausing rate hikes yetFed Governor Philip Jefferson named as new vice chair to succeed Lael BrainardFed increases rates a quarter point and signals a potential end to hikes

SINGAPORE, May 17 (Reuters) - The dollar rose on Wednesday, benefiting from its status as a safe-haven amid the risk of a U.S. debt default and as traders trimmed bets on imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts following solid consumer spending data in the United States. Against a basket of peers, including the euro, yen and sterling, the dollar index rose 0.3% to 102.96, to its highest since early April. Expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts any time soon were dampened by the solid increase in April consumer spending, and by comments from Fed officials. "A rate hike is possible this year, though the hurdle is high." The New Zealand dollar was broadly steady at $0.6232, with investors looking ahead to a 25 bp interest rate hike next week and perhaps one more after that.

☆ U.S. debt drama and data hoist dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar hit a two-week peak of 136.69 yen overnight and hovered just below that at 136.54 in the Asia day. Expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts any time soon were dampened by the solid increase in April consumer spending, and by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. "We expect some modest further increases in the dollar as markets continue to take out pricing for rate cuts," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso. "A rate hike is possible this year, though the hurdle is high." The New Zealand dollar was broadly steady at $0.6244, with investors looking ahead to a 25 bp interest rate hike next week and perhaps one more after that.

☆ Data and debt ceiling hoist dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Data showed U.S. consumer spending appeared to have increased solidly in April, which together with hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials weighed on bonds and against expectations that interest rate cuts are coming soon. Interest rate futures pricing implies no chance of a rate cut in June, down from about a 17% chance seen a month ago. "Market participants continue to lower pricing for near term rate cuts by the FOMC," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso. "We expect some modest further increases in the dollar as markets continue to take out pricing for rate cuts. The New Zealand dollar was broadly steady at $0.6239, with investors looking ahead to a 25 bp interest rate next week and perhaps one more after that.

☆ Wall Street closes lower after Home Depot outlook, US retail sales
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 0.4% in April, short of the estimate for an increase of 0.8%. That slowing along with recent negotiations over the U.S. debt ceiling has focused attention on when the central bank will pause hiking, or cut interest rates. While the market is currently pricing in a rate cut by the end of the year, recent comments from Fed officials suggested they are not ready to cut rates soon. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she does not think the central bank can hold interest rates steady yet. (This story has been corrected to say 'a rate cut,' instead of 'a rate hike,' in paragraph 8)Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Treasury yields mixed as investors weigh U.S. economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by close to two basis point to 3.5301%. Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury yield was last trading over one basis point higher at 4.0886%. U.S Treasury yields were mixed on Wednesday as investors assessed what could be next for the economy amid concerns about the debt ceiling and a recession. On Wednesday, investors will be following further Fed speaker comments, as well as the release of building permit and housing starts data for April.

☆ The Fed could enact a 'substitute' interest rate hike at its June meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Federal Reserve officials could talk tough enough at their June meeting that it would amount to a de facto interest rate hike. "All Fed officials are being careful not to exclude a June hike with more data to come and we would not completely exclude this either," he added. A "substitute" hike could see the rhetoric out of the June meeting reasserting the Fed's stern commitment to fighting inflation and disinclination toward easing anytime soon. But some taming in the inflation data , stronger economic signals and repeated statements from central bankers that cuts are not in their forecast have caused a shift. Fed fund futures contracts are implying a 4.585% funds rate by the end of the year, from the current 5.08%.

☆ Indian rupee to resume decline as yuan slides to 7/dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, May 17 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to decline on Wednesday after the Chinese yuan dropped to its lowest level this year to the U.S. dollar. Non-deliverable forwards indicate that the rupee will open at around 82.28-82.30 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 82.2050 in the previous session. The offshore yuan, bogged down by the resurgent dollar, dropped below 7 to the dollar for the first time this year. U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% month-on-month in April, with control retail sales up by a robust 0.7%. 15** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $43.2mln worth of Indian bonds on May.

☆ Morning bid: Fed rates to stay higher for longer, debt drama goes on
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee told Bloomberg on Tuesday that it was "too premature" to be discussing interest rate cuts. Loretta Mester, the President at the Cleveland Fed, said they're not at the point where rates can be kept on hold. The chance of a rate cut as early as June has also disappeared, according to the pricing of interest rate futures, having stood at almost 20% a month ago. DEBT CEILING OPTIMISMWith just over two weeks until a possible U.S. debt default unless Congress votes to raise the debt ceiling past its $31.3 trillion limit, talks appear to be heading toward a positive outcome. Biden, who will be travelling to Japan on Wednesday, is set to cut his trip short and skip stops in Australia and Papua New Guinea amid the debt ceiling stand-off.

☆ S&P 500, Dow fall, dragged by Home Depot outlook, US retail sales
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Home Depot (HD.N) shed 1.73%, the biggest drag on the Dow Industrials and among the heaviest weights on the S&P 500 after the home improvement retailer cut its annual sales forecast and projected a steeper-than-expected decline in profit. The Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 0.4% in April, short of the estimate for an increase of 0.8%. That slowing along with recent negotiations over the U.S. debt ceiling has focused attention on when the central bank will pause hiking, or cut interest rates. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she does not think the central bank can hold interest rates steady yet. The S&P 500 posted 10 new 52-week highs and 12 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 42 new highs and 163 new lows.

The Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 0.4% in April, at half the pace against an expected increase of 0.8%. "The retail sales data has been positive in several months, but it's still weak," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. You are probably seeing the end of the decline in retail sales, but it's not going to be a smooth ride from here." Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) component Home Depot (HD.N) shed 1.4%, hitting its lowest level in over six months after the company lowered its annual sales forecast. Shares of Capital One Financial Corp (COF.N) jumped 2.4%, rising the most on the S&P 500, after Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) on Monday disclosed it has begun investing in the consumer lender.

☆ Treasury yields fall as investors weigh Fed rate policy path
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Tuesday as investors assessed what could be next for Federal Reserve interest rates following a slew of comments from central bank officials. Investors looked to comments from Fed officials and economic data as they weighed what could be next for interest rate policy and whether the U.S. economy is likely to contract. That comes after last week's inflation data, which was slightly below expectations, led many investors to hope for rate cuts in the second half of the year. Concerns about elevated rates dragging the U.S. economy into a recession have grown louder in recent weeks.

☆ Morning bid: Biden, Republicans set for debt ceiling face-off
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Samuel Indyk. President Joe Biden and senior Republicans, including House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, are to sit down on Tuesday in an attempt to thrash out a deal to raise the debt limit and avoid a catastrophic default. That relative calm has been reflected in the latest Bank of America fund manager survey for May. Equity allocations rose to a five-month high, while a vast majority (71%) expect the U.S. to agree on a deal to raise the debt ceiling before the so-called "X-date". Away from the debt ceiling and the Federal Reserve's data dependency will be tested with the latest retail sales and industrial production figures.

☆ Fed's Mester says not yet at point where it can 'hold' rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Padraic Halpin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, May 16 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said on Tuesday that she does not think the U.S. central bank is at a point yet where it can hold interest rates steady for a period of time, given how stubborn inflation is. However, four U.S. central bankers on Monday signaled they see interest rates staying high and, if anything, going higher, given inflation that may be slow to improve and an economy showing only tentative signs of weakness. "When we get the policy to that rate, I think we're going to be holding for a while in order to make sure that the interest rate is coming back down. So I don't put it in terms of a pause, I put it in terms of a hold. At this point, given the data we've gotten so far, I would say no."

The Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 0.4% in April, at half the pace against an expected increase of 0.8%. "The retail sales data has been positive in several months, but it's still weak," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. You are probably seeing the end of the decline in retail sales, but it's not going to be a smooth ride from here." The S&P 500 retail index (.SPXRT) lost 0.6%. Shares of Capital One Financial Corp (COF.N) jumped 5.4%, rising the most on the S&P 500, after Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) on Monday disclosed it has begun investing in the consumer lender.

☆ Retail sales rose 0.4% in April, less than expected as consumers struggle with inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Consumers barely kept up with inflation in April, as retail sales increased but fell short of expectations, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The advanced sales report showed an increase of 0.4%, below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.8%. Excluding auto-related figures, sales increased 0.4%, which was in line with expectations. As the numbers are not adjusted for inflation, the headline increase equaled the 0.4% monthly rise in the consumer price index. Miscellaneous store retailers led gainers with a 2.4% increase, while online sales rose 1.2% and health and personal care retailers saw a 0.9% rise.

☆ Fed Set to Raise Interest Rates to 16-Year High and Debate a Pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

In projections released after their March meeting, most Federal Reserve officials thought the central bank would need to make one last quarter-point rate increase before moving to the sidelines. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty ImagesFederal Reserve officials are on track to increase interest rates again at their meeting this week while deliberating whether that will be enough to then pause the fastest rate-raising cycle in 40 years. “We are much closer to the end of the tightening journey than the beginning,” Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said April 20.

☆ Jim Cramer: This is what I learned from the real first week of earnings season
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-23 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

"Simply stated we're in a freight recession." That line, uttered last Monday by Shelley Simpson, president of J.B. Hunt (JBHT), the fourth-largest trucking company in the United States, was the most memorable of the real first week of earnings season. If so, it would know that we're dealing with much more than a freight recession. It's not enough to offset the immense deflationary pressure emanating from the regional banks and the freight recession described by J.B. Hunt. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

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☆ Gold prices ease with Fed rate trajectory in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,001.75 per ounce, as of 0342 GMT, after rising 1% on Thursday. Gold prices have been moderating in the absence of real incoming news flow and "we really need to see some bigger pieces of information to give it that directional conviction", said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive. "Gold pushed back above $2,000/oz as the weaker economic outlook is enticing safe-haven buying," ANZ said in a note. Rate hikes raise the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold. Spot silver dipped 0.3% to $25.22 per ounce, while platinum was flat at $1,093.33 and palladium rose 0.5% to $1,594.26.

☆ Fed's Mester sees policy rate over 5% and 'soft landing' on horizon
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Mester, who does not have a vote on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year, spoke less than two weeks before the Fed's May 2-3 policy meeting. The central bank is widely expected to hike rates a final time at that meeting, lifting its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 5.00%-5.25% range. Noting a need to be "prudent" with policy, Mester said this possible change in financial conditions "would work in the same direction as tighter monetary policy," which the Fed will need to take stock of "to help us calibrate the appropriate path of monetary policy going forward." Mester said she expects the unemployment rate, which is currently 3.5%, to rise to between 4.5% and 4.75%. "The 'soft landing,' of course, is what we're aiming for," Mester said, referring to a scenario in which monetary tightening slows the economy, and inflation, without triggering a recession.

☆ Morning Bid: Oil price relapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Although oil prices have not yet reversed all their gains from OPEC move, Brent is down more than 5% over the past week and the year-on-year deflation in oil prices is running at 24%. And there's also signs oil loading from Russia's western ports this month is rising to the highest since 2019 -= despite Moscow's pledge to cut output. Tesla (TSLA.O) shares dropped 2% after the electric-vehicle maker's sixth U.S. price cut this year. Helped by the oil price retreat, 2-year U.S. Treasury yields fell back almost 10 basis points to 4.19%. VIX and bear marketsShare price performance, earnings and sales for TeslaReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

☆ Inflation is still too high: Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation is still too high: Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta MesterCNBC's Scott Wapner joins 'Halftime' with breaking news from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester about Fed policy moving into further restrictive policy.

☆ Treasury yields fall as investors weigh interest rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday as investors awaited economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials that could provide hints about the central bank's monetary policy plans. Investors assessed what could be next for Fed policy, especially regarding interest rates. Many are expecting the central bank to announce another 25 basis point interest rate hike after its next meeting on May 2-3. That fueled investor concerns about further interest rate hikes, and rates staying elevated for longer — a prospect which Fed officials, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, have also hinted at. On Thursday, investors will be scanning remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester for fresh policy hints.

☆ Stock futures are slightly down as investors parse corporate earnings: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures are modestly lower Wednesday night as investors appraised the latest batch of corporate earnings. S&P 500 futures shed 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures slipped 0.3%. "Earnings reports have been mixed thus far, with individual stocks responding to specific company results relative to expectations rather than broad index directionality," he said. Investors will watch Thursday for more earnings reports, including releases before the bell from Alaska Air and AT&T . Beyond earnings, investors will keep an eye on morning data on jobless claims and existing home sales.

SINGAPORE, April 17 (Reuters) - The dollar climbed to a one-month high against Japan's yen on Monday as traders eyed up another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, while the Bank of Japan stuck to its easy money policies. Expectations of higher interest rates relative to global peers tend to boost a currency by making investments there look more attractive, and vice versa. Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, pricing in derivatives markets shows traders think there's a roughly 84% chance the Fed will hike rates again by 25 basis points in May, up from around 69% last week . It hit a one-year high of $1.108 on Friday, with traders expecting further interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank even as the Fed nears a pause. Foley expects one more 25 basis point rate hike from the Fed in May before it holds rates steady for the rest of the year.

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