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"When you get into higher interest rates ... you look to your collateral," Rodeheaver said in an interview. "We are tightening on price and profitability ... That is going to slow lending a bit." "The economy has started to slow in an orderly fashion" in response to higher interest rates, Jefferson said, calling tighter credit conditions "part of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy." Powell, however, said he felt the impact of the credit shock "remains uncertain," and his own baseline outlook does not include a recession. Bank lending dipped about 1.7% in the two weeks following SVB's collapse, but has risen since then and recouped about a third of the decline.

☆ Betting Against Banks Brings Reward and Backlash
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Matt Wirz | Ben Foldy | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The FDIC seized First Republic Bank in early May and struck a deal to sell the bulk of its operations to JPMorgan Chase. WSJ’s Ben Eisen explains what led to the bank’s failure and what it means for customers, investors and the industry. Illustration: Preston JesseeShort selling is back in vogue on Wall Street, rewarding some who bet against banks while triggering a backlash. Short selling, or betting that securities prices will fall, surged over the past year as many investors braced for market turbulence. The approach helped hedge funds beat major stock indexes last year for the first time since 2008.

☆ PacWest leads losses in regional bank stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 9 (Reuters) - Shares of PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) looked set to lead declines in U.S. regional lenders at market open on Tuesday as investors feared the ongoing banking crisis could deepen. The KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) hit a 30-month low last week after the collapse of First Republic Bank and PacWest's decision to explore strategic options. PacWest and Western Alliance, which have been at the heart of the sell-off in regional banks, saw the steepest decline in deposits in the first quarter after First Republic, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Western Alliance (WAL.N) dropped 1.5%, while First Horizon Corp (FHN.N) and Zion Bancorp (ZION.O) dipped 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, with Arfstrom noting that the pullback in banks shares overall have made their valuations attractive. Wall Street executives and bank analysts last week called on regulators to quickly provide more protection for bank deposits and consider other backstops, arguing only an intervention could stop the crisis.

☆ PacWest, Western Alliance lead slide in regional bank stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 9 (Reuters) - Shares of regional lenders PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) and Western Alliance (WAL.N) resumed their slide in premarket trading on Tuesday as investors feared the ongoing banking crisis could deepen. PacWest dropped 13.6%, a day after the Los Angeles-based lender's decision to cut its quarterly dividend failed to stem worries about its financial stability. The KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) had last week touched 30-month lows after the collapse of First Republic Bank and PacWest's decision to exploring strategic options. PacWest and Western Alliance, which have been at the heart of the banking selloff, saw the steepest decline in deposits in the first quarter after First Republic, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Reporting by Medha Singh in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar; Editing by Arun KoyyurOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Corporate defaults are at their highest level in years, and it's poised to get even worse. Here are the 5 biggest players who went broke in March.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Nidhi Pandurangi | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Corporate default rates are at the highest level in years, according to a bankruptcy report released on April 14 by ratings agency Moody's. In the first quarter of the year, 33 companies rated by Moody's were unable to pay their debts. That's the highest number since the last quarter of 2020, when 47 companies defaulted on their debt, the agency said in the report. The ratings giant expects junk bond defaults could rise to 4.9% by March 2024, thanks to higher interest rates and slower economic growth. This list has been curated to highlight the biggest companies — by impact — that went broke and were unable to honor their debt obligations.

☆ A chief economist who called the 2008 housing crisis says home prices are set to drop another 15% as falling mortgage rates and a recession will create a supply-demand imbalance
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This will drag 30-year mortgage rates — which track closely with 10-year Treasury rates because they typically have a lifespan of around 12 years — down to 6% or lower. One might argue that falling mortgage rates would also stimulate demand enough to meet the rise in supply, holding prices relatively steady. Now that's quite striking because mortgage rates are no longer at peak, but mortgage applications are still falling. Tight monetary policy and a pullback in lending will lead to a cooling labor market, he said, and that's bad for housing demand. Below is the National Association of Realtors' Housing Affordability Index, which takes into account incomes, home prices, and mortgage rates.

☆ Why bank stocks are so unstable
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

New York CNN —The financial sector has been churning in rough water since the shocking collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March. Bank insiders see this and have been buying up shares of regional lenders, according to a report by Timothy Coffey, an analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott. The Oracle of Omaha said he remains cautious about holding bank stocks and that he has reduced his own exposure to the sector. The S&P 500 financial sector, however, is down more than 12% over the same period. Economists were hoping that this year would bring better news, but instead 2023 brought the collapse of three US regional banks and a subsequent lending squeeze.

☆ Warren Buffett Has a History With Banks—as a Critic and Investor
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Ben Eisen | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The FDIC seized First Republic Bank and struck a deal to sell the bulk of its operations to JPMorgan Chase. WSJ’s Ben Eisen explains what led to the bank’s failure and what it means for customers, investors and the industry. Illustration: Preston JesseeWhen there is turmoil in the banking industry, there is an urge to point fingers. Warren Buffett weighed in Saturday: Blame the chief executives of recently failed banks. Blame the board of directors, too, for failing to hold the executives accountable.

For most of the day, stocks struggled for direction amid disappointing earnings from Tyson Foods and Catalent and a short-lived rebound in regional banks. The struggle for a clearer direction comes after a rally on Friday, when U.S. jobs data pointed to a resilient labor market. Producer prices, weekly jobless claims and consumer sentiment data are all lined up for the week. Shares of regional banks tumbled for much of last week on worries tied to the collapse of First Republic Bank. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc's Class B shares rose after posting a $35.5 billion first-quarter profit, boosted by gains from stocks such as Apple.

The struggle for a clearer direction comes after a rally on Friday, when U.S. jobs data pointed to a resilient labor market. Producer prices, weekly jobless claims and consumer sentiment data are all lined up for the week. A rally in regional banks' shares proved short-lived, with PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) rising 5.6% after gaining as much as about 30% earlier in the session after the lender sharply cut its quarterly dividend to boost capital. Shares of regional banks tumbled for much of last week on worries tied to the collapse of First Republic Bank. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc's Class B shares rose 0.9% after posting a $35.5 billion first-quarter profit, boosted by gains from stocks such as Apple.

Producer prices, weekly jobless claims and consumer sentiment data are all lined up through the week. "The bigger picture is inflation will remain higher for longer and that we are heading into a recession. The KBW Regional Banking index (.KRX) fell 2.2% after posting its best single-day performance in seven weeks on Friday. Shares of regional banks tumbled for much of last week on worries tied to the collapse of First Republic Bank. The S&P index recorded 10 new 52-week highs and four new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 47 new highs and 53 new lows.

☆ Premarket stocks: The Fed could be on the verge of repeating its 1970s mistake
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

But Gary Richardson, a Federal Reserve historian, is worried policymakers — now contemplating taking a breather — still risk repeating mistakes from that era. A premature retreat could cause the Fed to lose its handle on the situation, presenting even grimmer options down the road. Quick rewind: The chair of the Federal Reserve at the time, Arthur Burns, hiked interest rates dramatically between 1972 and 1974. Inflation later roared back, forcing the hand of Paul Volcker, who took over at the Fed in 1979, Richardson said. But the comparisons reveal the high stakes for the Federal Reserve at a moment of acute uncertainty.

"Responding to such changes have become a common challenge for countries across the world, including Japan," he said, adding that the topic will be among many issues to be discussed at this week's G7 meeting. "We're watching the situation with a strong sense of alarm, as markets and economies are globally intertwined," he said, adding that Japan's banking system was stable as a whole. Japan would aim to issue a G7 joint communique after the finance leaders' meeting, which may stress the need for authorities to remain vigilant to banking-sector woes, two government sources with direct knowledge of the matter said. The Nikkei newspaper reported on Tuesday the G7 finance leaders will discuss setting up individual emergency plans in case they face digital bank runs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who will travel to Japan, will tell her G7 counterparts that the U.S. banking system remains sound, a senior Treasury official said on Friday.

On the other end, regional banks' shares stretched gains from a rebound on Friday, with PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) jumping 19.9% after the lender sharply cut its quarterly dividend to boost capital. Shares of such banks tumbled for much of last week on worries tied to the collapse of First Republic Bank. "We're in an information vacuum right now, waiting for the next inflation data. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc's Class B shares rose 1.2% after posting a $35.5 billion first-quarter profit, reflecting gains from stocks such as Apple. The S&P index recorded seven new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 31 new highs and 23 new lows.

☆ Fed report shows banks worried about conditions ahead, with focus on slowing economy and deposit outflows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"Banks reported expecting to tighten standards across all loan categories," the report said. At the same time, the survey showed that demand weakened across most categories. In particular, the report showed "tighter standards and weaker demand" for commercial and industrial loans, an important bellwether for economic growth. Also, the report showed the same conditions across commercial real estate categories. Even with the banking troubles, the central bank last week decided to raise interest rates for the 10th time since March 2022.

☆ Fed says banking sector looks set to weather recent turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON, May 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. banking sector overall appears well-positioned to weather recent industry turmoil, but the experience could still weigh on credit conditions in the future, the Federal Reserve said on Monday. In aggregate, it said banks remain well-capitalized. DEBT LIMIT CONCERNSThe Fed released the report shortly after a separate central bank survey found banks were tightening credit standards amid weaker loan demand. Beyond banks, the Fed said pressures on various market sectors remained within historical norms. Banking sector stresses were identified as a risk by more than half of respondents, up from 12% in the November report.

Regional bank shares stretched gains from a rebound on Friday, with PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) jumping 33% premarket after the company announced quarterly dividend. Shares of such banks tumbled for much of last week on worries tied to the collapse of First Republic Bank. ET, Dow e-minis were up 67 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 6 points, or 0.14%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 4.25 points, or 0.03%. Data on producer prices, weekly jobless claims and on consumer sentiment are all lined up through the week. On earnings, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc's Class B shares rose 1.5% after the company posting a $35.5 billion first-quarter profit, reflecting gains from stocks such as Apple.

☆ A Brain Drain Is Hurting the F.D.I.C.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Alan Rappeport | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

The March failures of Signature Bank, which was overseen by the F.D.I.C., and Silicon Valley Bank, which was regulated by the Federal Reserve, threatened to set off runs at regional banks across the country. Biden administration officials and federal regulators have described the recent bank failures as largely the result of poor management. In a report released in late April reviewing the failure of Signature Bank, the F.D.I.C. pointed to its own “persistent” staffing shortages as a problem that has hampered its ability to supervise lenders. It’s always a risk at any regulatory agency.”The F.D.I.C.

☆ Border Cities Strained by Migrant Surge Brace for Title 42 Expiration
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Wall Street Journal | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

First Republic Seized and Sold: Why It Happened and What Comes Next The FDIC seized First Republic Bank early Monday and struck a deal to sell the bulk of its operations to JPMorgan Chase. WSJ’s Ben Eisen explains what led to the bank’s failure and what it means for customers, investors and the industry. Illustration: Preston Jessee

☆ Banks Are in the Grips of Investor Crisis of Confidence
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Telis Demos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

WSJ’s Ben Eisen explains what the bank’s crisis means for customers, investors and the industry. Illustration: Preston JesseeFirst Republic Bank ’s seizure and sale to JPMorgan Chase was supposed to be a cathartic moment for American banks, the denouement of the financial system’s latest crisis of confidence. The relief lasted for barely a day. On Tuesday, shares of regional banks were plunging, with a handful of them dropping by double-digit percentages. At one point on Thursday, the KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index was down by 15% from the prior week, though it rallied back on Friday to finish the week down 8%.

☆ The Week in Business: The 10th Straight Rate Increase
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Marie Solis | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

It was the third consecutive increase of that size and the 10th straight rate increase since last March. This encroaching deadline presents a tricky political problem for Mr. Biden. Republicans are trying to extract concessions from Mr. Biden that would significantly undermine his agenda. He could negotiate spending cuts but divorce those discussions from the debt limit. There is one other possible option: a constitutional challenge to the debt limit, a long-shot plan that would rely on a clause in the 14th Amendment.

[1/9] Investors and guests arrive for the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders' meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, U.S. May 6, 2023. Speaking at Berkshire's annual shareholder meeting, Buffett criticized how politicians, regulators and the press have handled the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank, saying their "very poor" messaging has unnecessarily frightened depositors. At the meeting, Berkshire shareholders reelected all directors and rejected shareholder proposals concerning climate change, diversity and political activities. LIGHTED MATCHBuffett said regulators were right to guarantee depositors of Silicon Valley Bank, saying that not doing so "would have been catastrophic." He also said bank shareholders and executives should bear the risks of mismanagement, with Munger criticizing executives concerned more with getting rich than with customers.

☆ Warren Buffett says Berkshire is cautious on banking sector
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( John Mccrank | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Rachel MummeyNEW YORK, May 6 (Reuters) - Warren Buffett on Saturday said Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N) is cautious around the banking sector, largely because of poor messaging by officials around government-insured deposits, as well as distorted incentives he said were brought on by banking regulation. "The U.S. government and the American public have no interest in having a bank fail and having deposits actually lost by people," he said. Part of the reason for that is that incentives in banking regulation are "so messed up," he said. First Republic Bank, the latest regional U.S. bank to fail, disclosed that it was offering non-guaranteed jumbo-sized mortgages at fixed rates in its annual report. "The incentives in bank regulation are so messed up and so many people have an interest in having them messed up -- it's totally crazy," Buffett said.

Speaking at the annual meeting of his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N), criticized how politicians, regulators and the press have handled the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank, saying their "very poor" messaging has unnecessarily frightened depositors. The meeting featured Buffett, 92, who is Berkshire's chairman and chief executive, and Vice Chairman Charlie Munger answering five hours of shareholder questions. LIGHTED MATCHBuffett said regulators were right to guarantee depositors of Silicon Valley Bank, saying that not doing so "would have been catastrophic." Buffett defended the size of Berkshire's $151 billion Apple investment, saying consumers are less likely to shed their $1,500 iPhones than, for example, their $35,000 second cars. Many recognized it could be one of their last chances to see Buffett and Munger, given their ages.

☆ 'Recession is a done deal': A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns a deep and long downturn will destroy corporate profit margins — setting stocks up for disaster
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

But as data continues to come out in the months ahead, Edwards says to pay attention to details beneath the headline numbers. Sure enough, revisions to February and March numbers reported on Friday paint a picture of a weakening labor market. "I think the recession will lead to a collapse in margins and profits and do a lot of damage." In terms of his view on the labor market, Edwards has company in Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. But bulls do remain, and they're betting on a scenario where inflation continues to come down — it hit 5% in March, down from its 9.1% peak last year — and the labor market remains intact.

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