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NEW YORK, March 22 (Reuters) - JPMorgan (JPM.N) Chief Executive Jamie Dimon is scheduled to meet with Lael Brainard, the director of the White House's National Economic Council, during the executive's planned trip to Washington, according to a person familiar with the situation. The CEOs of major banks gathered in Washington for a two-day scheduled meeting which started on Tuesday, sources familiar with the matter previously said. The quarterly meeting of the Financial Services Forum included Dimon and Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) CEO Brian Moynihan, who head the nation's two largest lenders, the sources said. The banks were aiming to work out details for what needs to be done for First Republic within the coming 24 hours, another source said. Eleven lenders, including the eight members of the Financial Services Forum, threw First Republic a lifeline of a combined $30 billion in deposits last week.
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Fees on concert tickets, airfares, hotels and other so-called junk fees cost Americans tens of billions of dollars every year, often obscuring the full price of purchases from consumers, top economic experts said at the White House on Tuesday. Biden also called on state legislators to address junk fees at a March 8 virtual meeting with the White House. The eradication of junk fees is also a bipartisan issue with positive benefits for the economy, Brainard will say. She says recent surveys show 75% of consumers support cutting junk fees, "with strong support across party lines." "As an economist, I know that regulating junk fees has a strong foundation in decades of scholarship.
Yellen heads to the White House, Brainard meets with her staff and holds Zoom calls in her wood-paneled office in the West Wing. Treasury staff hustle to get Yellen on CBS News' "Face the Nation" program on Sunday, in an attempt to reassure markets. White House officials draft news releases with various scenarios, uncertain until shortly before 6 p.m. if an acquisition can still happen. As he leaves Delaware to return to the White House, Biden tells reporters he will make a statement on Monday. Treasury and White House officials reach out to members of Congress and their staffs throughout the evening to explain the plan, with discussions continuing into Monday.
Bank-rule pendulum swings back to 'safety first'
  + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The crisis that struck the U.S. banking system over the weekend had many causes. After the 2008 crisis, Congress bound up the financial system with rules to prevent bank death spirals. The major financial authorities – the Fed, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency – applied the lighter touch. The Fed was permitted to retain tough rules for banks with assets over $100 billion, but decided not to. There are, after all, only 17 banks with assets between $100 billion and $250 billion – two fewer than last week.
In praise of American finance’s regulatory mess
  + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
NEW YORK, March 9 (Reuters Breakingviews) - There are many issues on which China and the United States are far apart. The People’s Republic this week proposed combining financial regulatory functions into a new super watchdog to govern its financial sector more effectively. China’s proposed new National Financial Regulatory Administration is roughly in this mold. Since 2008, officials in Beijing have criticized the United States’ financial excesses and its “warped conception” of financial discipline. The new National Financial Regulatory Administration would sit directly under the State Council, which serves as China’s cabinet.
[1/2] Signage is seen at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) headquarters in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 14, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew KellyWASHINGTON, March 8 (Reuters) - Top White House officials and the head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) on Wednesday will urge states to expand their efforts to crack down on surprise fees consumers are forced to pay on everything from rental housing to cable bills. The push is part of President Joe Biden's government-wide effort to reduce or eliminate so-called "junk fees" that jack up costs for consumers. loadingIt will also release a new guide that maps out actions states can take. "These junk fees, which are often not disclosed upfront and only revealed after a consumer has decided to buy something, obscure true prices and dilute the forces of market competition that are the bedrock of the U.S economy," the guide said.
"If corporate profits were to decline from the extremely high levels that we saw recently, would it be possible to sustain" growth in workers' benefits "even as we get inflation down to the target of 2%?" Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen asked Powell during the Fed chief's semi-annual testimony before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. "Wages affect prices and prices affect wages," Powell said, associating current earnings growth to the current ultra-low unemployment rate of 3.4%, and suggesting the labor market may need to weaken at least somewhat for inflation to fall. SHORTAGESUltimately, Powell said he felt profits would likely moderate on their own as the U.S. economy moves beyond the pandemic. "What we're seeing in the economy is pretty much about shortages ... supply chain blockages," Powell said.
"It's clear that profit expansion has played a larger role in the European inflation story in the last six months or so," said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. "The ECB has failed to justify what it's doing in the context of a more profit-focused inflation story." Instead, national accounts and earnings reports from listed companies are being used as proxies to paint the inflation picture. "The main story of the risks going forward is still that there's a looming wage-price spiral which should make the central bank even more aggressive in hiking interest rates." loadingloadingEven inside the ECB, labour representatives demanding higher pay for central bank staff have distanced themselves from what they described as the institution's "anti-worker bias".
"What Biden and his advisers are doing is solving problems that exist in the economy. They are pushing forward an agenda aimed at building things in America again ... and taking on corporate power," he said. A Department of Energy provision in the act requires companies to focus on workforce training, ensure diversity and engage "environmental justice" communities in planning. Key provisions on universal child care and better working conditions for child care workers were stripped out of bills last year. Julie Su, just tapped to be labor secretary, launched a campaign against "wage theft" by employers as a labor activist.
Elon Musk has weighed in on the Fed, in a reminder of his worries its policy could crush stocks' value. "A bad Fed decision affects the lives of everyone," he tweeted in a discussion about the next Fed vice chair. "A bad Fed decision affects the lives of everyone." He warned in January that its aggressive rate hikes could crush the value of the entire stock market by discouraging investors from dipping into them. The Fed's rate hikes are seen as a drag on stocks, as parking money in a interest-bearing investment instead becomes more attractive.
Fed bank directors generally stay out of the limelight, but many U.S. central bankers view them as a critical resource. "I think the probabilities are far higher of achieving that gentle transition, that smoother transition," San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Reuters in an interview. This year, of the 108 spots on the 12 Fed bank boards, 44% are filled by women, and 41% by people of color, a review of the data shows. Still, a majority of the Fed's economists are white men, as are its top two monetary policymakers: Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. Hispanics and Latinos, Menendez notes, are a fast-growing segment of the population but are underrepresented at the Fed at all levels, including on Fed bank boards.
The two-day meeting ended on Feb. 1 with the central bank raising its target interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, a return to a more standard rate hike size after a year of sequential three-quarter point and half-point increases. The Fed uses the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index in setting its 2% inflation target. Since the meeting, some Fed officials have acknowledged they had pushed to continue with larger half-point rate increases at the last meeting, while investors have boosted their own outlook for where the Fed may end up. Most do not see the Fed returning to larger half-point increases now that they have slowed. While the minutes released today are particularly dated, given the jobs and inflation numbers released since then, policymakers will update their views next month with new economic and interest rate projections issued after the Fed's March 21-22 meeting.
All that extra cash should support strong spending through February and perhaps March, said Bank of America analysts. That means the Fed may use the strong data as an excuse to keep hiking interest rates. Recession risk may be deferred, but it certainly hasn’t dissipated.”PPI, housing starts and bald spots: What investors are watching today▸ Thursday morning brings two big data releases: The January Producer Price Index and housing starts. ▸ Housing starts, a measure of new home construction, have declined every month since August. Housing starts are expected to decline slightly.
Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, attends the Bank of England Monetary Policy Report Press Conference, at the Bank of England, London, Britain, February 2, 2023. Pool | ReutersLONDON — A tight labor market and comparatively slow return to earth for inflation means the Bank of England is likely to press ahead with a further interest rate hike in March, economists suggest. "However food prices remain a major driver of U.K. inflation, continuing their upwards march in January with an eye-watering 16.8% increase. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey last week urged workers and employers to consider the expected downward inflation trajectory when negotiating pay settlements. "The cocktail of a tight labour market and inflation failing to cool off quickly will remain a cause of concern for Bank of England policymakers, which may mean the Bank's aggressive strategy stays in place," Carter added.
Biden takes aim at Republican spending cuts plan
  + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
At issue is Republicans' refusal to raise the statutory $31.4 trillion U.S. debt limit unless Biden agrees to spending cuts. The White House has said such measures will only be discussed after the debt ceiling is lifted. In a speech at a union hall in suburban Maryland, Biden accused Republicans, who now control the House of Representatives, of pushing him to agree to spending cuts, while their own plans would add $3 trillion to the debt. Republicans argue that federal spending is too high and will fuel inflation while raising the U.S. debt level. They also plan a separate news conference on Wednesday aimed at highlighting House Republicans' planned budget cuts.
The decision, announced after financial markets closed, gives Biden a pair of trusted Washington insiders to steer economic policy as the risk of recession fades but inflation lingers. Big fights also loom with the Republican-controlled House of Representatives over raising the debt ceiling. The shakeup comes as the White House tries to tackle what officials view as a frustrating disconnect between relatively strong economic data and weak public sentiment. The White House has refused to discuss spending cuts without a debt ceiling vote first. Bernstein last week conceded that the White House's early description of inflation as "transitory" had missed the mark.
President Biden’s reshuffle of his economic team could have its most immediate economic impact on the Federal Reserve, with the departure of the central bank’s vice chair, Lael Brainard , for the White House. Ms. Brainard’s move to lead Mr. Biden’s National Economic Council means the Fed will lose an influential top official who has advocated for a marginally less aggressive approach to raising interest rates than Fed Chair Jerome Powell .
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNEC Director Brian Deese is confident in Lael Brainard's capacity to take overBrian Deese, National Economic Council Director, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss Lael Brainard stepping in as his successor, bipartisan opportunities in the legislative agenda, and more.
Morning bid: When meeting expectations isn't enough
  + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
That sent the S&P down but the Nasdaq index ended up, while two-year Treasury yields rose to 3.799, the highest since January. It looks like markets are still unable to make up their minds on the data's long-term impact. Officials said the U.S. central bank would need to keep gradually raising interest rates to beat inflation. After the inflation data, traders of interest rate futures now see the Fed raising borrowing costs three more times, bringing the policy rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range by July, if not June. Meanwhile, investors turned more optimistic about the global economy in February, flocking to emerging market stocks and cutting their cash holdings to levels last seen before the war in Ukraine, a BofA survey of global investors showed on Tuesday.
Two-year Treasury yields hit their highest in three months at 4.65%, now on par with the current Fed policy rate. Morgan Stanley's Matthew Hornbach described the payrolls as a "mood changing" print that's seen markets chase rates higher as if gripped by a sort of reverse FOMO - fear of missing out. Reports circulated last week of swaps and options market activity on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that bet on market rates touching 6%, or at least hedging against that possibility. If that's true, the battle over the terminal rate may now be overtaken by how long the Fed can keep rates higher to achieve its goals. BofA chart on peak rates from fund manager surveyInflationThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
Morning Bid: Interminable anxiety
  + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The about-turn in rates markets in just two weeks has been extraordinary - with Fed funds futures pricing moving from a terminal rate as low as 4.8% to 5.26% on Wednesday. Two-year Treasury yields soared to a 3-month high of 4.64% on Tuesday - where current Fed rates sit - and only gave back a fraction of that on Wednesday. U.S. stocks held up remarkably well on Tuesday - helped by hopes recession fears are easing even as rate speculation intensifies. Sterling slipped as UK inflation fell faster than expected last month, even though the annual inflation rate remains in double digits. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
At issue is Republicans' refusal to raise the statutory $31.4 trillion U.S. debt limit unless Biden agrees to spending cuts, while the White House has said such measures will only be discussed after the debt ceiling is lifted. With his own approval ratings now at 36%, despite 53-year low unemployment and rising consumer sentiment, Biden will seek to flip the script and point the finger at a Republican agenda that he says will amount to "a massive giveaway to the super-rich, big corporations and Big Pharma," the White House said. By contrast, Biden says his administration's plans will cut U.S. debt by another $2 trillion on top of $1.7 trillion in reductions already made. Republicans argue that U.S. federal spending is too high and will fuel inflation while raising the U.S. debt level. Republican have discussed repealing the stock buyback tax entirely, which the White House says would add $74 billion to the federal debt.
In her more than eight years as a Federal Reserve official, Lael Brainard was an influential voice, particularly for the side that favored keeping monetary policy loose and interest rates low. "Brainard's departure from the Fed leaves a dove-sized hole in its monetary policy," Beacon Policy Advisors wrote in its daily newsletter Wednesday. Indeed, Brainard's influence only accelerated the longer she served as a Fed governor. Her subsequent appointment in 2022 as vice chair solidified her influence, installing her as part of the "troika" of policy-directing power that includes current Chairman Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. Some candidates outside the Fed ranks, according to Guha, include Karen Dynan, Jason Furman, Janice Eberly and Christina Romer, all of whom served under former President Barack Obama (and his vice president, Biden).
What Lael Brainard's departure means for the Fed
  + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWhat Lael Brainard's departure means for the FedAlan Blinder, former Federal Reserve vice chairman and Princeton University professor, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the move to transition Lael Brainard from the Fed to the National Economic Council, the gesture to push out dovish sentiment from the Fed, and more.
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