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☆ Why millennials say they need more than double the salary of other generations to be happy
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Millennials said in a recent survey that they need $525,000 a year to be happy. It's likely due to high debt loads millennials hold, along with childcare and housing costs. The average respondent said they think they need a $284,167 annual salary to be happy, and for millennials, that amount was much higher at $525,000. As Business Insider recently reported, millennials' financial well-being has plummeted, according to Morning Consult's latest iteration of its well-being index. Big debt loads are a contributor to millennials' financial well-being right now.

Persons: Millennials, —, Gen Z, Gen X, millennials, Fannie Mae, it's, Jimmy Gomez, Joe Biden Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Consumer Financial, Federal, New York Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, National Association of Realtors

☆ The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates 6 times in 2024 as the economy shows clear signs of cooling down, ING says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates six times in 2024, according to ING Economics. AdvertisementAn economy that is showing clear signs of decelerating means the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least six times in 2024, according to a Thursday note from ING Economics. Knightley expects the interest rate cuts to extend into 2025 with at least four 25 basis point interest rate cuts. And it might not break if the Fed can successfully ease interest rates lower before the economy enters a recession. UBS expects the Fed to cut interest rates by a whopping 275 basis points next year in response to a recession.

Persons: —, James Knightley, Knightley Organizations: Federal, ING Economics, Service, Reserve, ING, Fed, UBS Locations: 1,841k

☆ Price hikes and spending cooled last month, Fed’s preferred inflation gauge shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The core PCE price index is at its lowest annual rate since April 2021, marking another step toward the Fed’s target of 2% inflation. When including gas and food prices, the overall PCE index was unchanged last month. Consumer expenditures increased 0.2% last month, a marked pullback from the 0.7% jump seen in September. When taking out inflation, however, the 0.2% real spending in October was down only slightly from September’s 0.3% gain. Holiday uncertaintyThe spending patterns last month align with the ongoing trend of people spending their money more on experiences.

Persons: Bharat Ramamurti, Kayla Bruun, Jill Renslow, Bruun, ” Ramamurti, ” Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, The Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, PCE, National Economic Council, CNN, Consumers, Morning, of, National Retail Federation Locations: Minneapolis, of America, Bloomington , Minnesota

☆ Market vulnerabilities and a possible U.S. recession: Strategists give their cautious predictions for 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The market is now largely pricing a peak at the current Fed funds target range of 5.25-5.5%, with interest rate cuts to come next year. watch now"At the outer edges of the economy there is obvious stress that is likely to spread in 2024 with rates at these levels. So it's easy to see how bad levered investments could have been made that would be vulnerable to this higher rate regime." Recession risk 'delayed rather than diminished' In a roundtable event on Tuesday, JPMorgan Asset Management strategists echoed this note of caution, claiming that the risk of a U.S. recession was "delayed rather than diminished" as the impact of higher rates feeds through into the economy. "I think the the key conclusion here is that interest rates do still bite, it's just taking longer this time around," she said.

Persons: Victor J, Jim Reid, David Folkerts, Landau, Reid, Folkerts, GSAM, Karen Ward, it's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Blue, Bloomberg, Getty, Monetary, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Global Economics, Research, Silicon Valley Bank, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, European Central Bank, Fed, ECB, JPMorgan, Management Locations: New York, Washington, U.S, Canada, Brazil, Chile, Hungary, Mexico, Peru, Poland

After declining for three straight months, American consumer confidence ticked up in November as the all-important holiday shopping season kicks into high gear. The Conference Board, a business research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose to 102 this month from 99.1 in October. However, it was the third straight reading below 80 for future expectations, which historically signals a recession within a year. Consumer spending accounts for around 70% of U.S. economic activity, so economists pay close attention to consumer behavior as they take measure of the broader economy. Though they continue to spend, inflation, geopolitical conflicts and higher interest rates remain at the forefront of American consumers’ minds.

Organizations: Conference Board

☆ Americans broke a record for spending on Black Friday, but it's just hiding a bigger problem for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Cork Gaines | Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Many are delaying the cost as buy now, pay later programs are expected to have their biggest month ever. Many are paying via "buy now, pay later" platforms such as Klarna or Afterpay, which let shoppers pay in installments every week or month. Buy now, pay later also allows people to borrow less expensively as they get the pricing interest-free if paid off in time. Indeed, the Fed's "2022 Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking" found that 83% of respondents paid off their buy now, pay later programs on time. Compounding the problem is that people tend to spend more when using buy now, pay later programs, suggesting an overconfidence in what they can afford.

Persons: —, Salesforce, Beryl Tomay, Klarna, Mark Luschini, Janney Montgomery Scott, Maria Bartiromo, Luschini, Michael Landsberg, Landsberg Bennett, Kraig, Foreman Organizations: Black, Service, Adobe, Mastercard, CNBC, Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Household Economics, Social Science Research Network, Wealth Management Locations: Landsberg

☆ Americans broke a record for spending on Black Friday, but it is just hiding a bigger problem for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Cork Gaines | Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

☆ A default cycle has started amid the Fed's high interest rates, economists say. These 4 charts explain how severe it is.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A default cycle has started, spurred by high rates and debt costs, economists at Apollo Management said. Data on default rates and bankruptcy filings show just how severe the situation is. Advertisement"A default cycle has started with bankruptcy filings rising, and default rates will continue to rise over the coming quarters, impacting in particular middle market companies," they added. US Speculative grade default rates Apollo Management"The ongoing rise in default rates is not just a 'normalization.' AdvertisementUS bankruptcy filings Apollo ManagementWeekly bankruptcy filings for companies with at least $50 million in liabilities Apollo ManagementSløk has previously said that the Fed's rate hikes were to blame for higher bankruptcies.

Persons: —, Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Apollo Management Sløk, Nicholas Colas, Moody's Organizations: Apollo Management, Service, HY, Apollo, DataTrek, Management Locations: Moody's, Europe

☆ Why American consumers may finally slow their spending, in charts
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-26 | by ( Christopher Hickey | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Some experts think the combination of high housing costs, rising credit card debt and shrinking savings could mean the end of post-Covid splurges, maybe even as soon as this year’s holiday shopping season. Here are the pressures consumers are facing that could cause a spending slowdown. Keeping up with high prices not only has led to more credit card debt, but also more consumers are falling behind on the payments. Since the first quarter of 2022, the rate of newly serious delinquent credit card debt has risen roughly 90%. And that would mean Americans may be forced to finally pull back on their post-Covid spending spree.

Persons: “, ”, Erik Lundh, Freddie Mac, ” Lundh, Lundh, they’ve Organizations: Conference, Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, New York Federal Reserve, Social Security Administration, San Francisco Federal Reserve, SF Fed, New York Fed, Covid Locations: people’s

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns stock valuations are near their most elevated levels ever — and lays out why a 63% decline in the S&P 500 would be consistent with 10
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-25 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Right now, it shows the S&P 500 at levels higher than during the dot-com bubble. According to Hussman's model, the S&P 500 will underperform Treasurys by about 7.5% over the next 12 years, the lowest projection since the 2000 and 1929 bubbles. Actual S&P 500 performance tends to follow Hussman's projections closely. Here's the Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500, which averages valuations over the prior 10 years. Much of those gains are thanks to the so-called "Magnificent 7" stocks, the S&P 500's biggest seven stocks by market cap.

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, Here's, Adam Turnquist Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Treasury, Federal, LPL Financial Locations: it's

☆ US commercial property loan activity to drop off in Q4 after Q3 pickup -DBRS
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Matt Tracy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The third quarter saw roughly $3 billion in new collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) backed by CRE loans, according to a Friday report by DBRS. This marks a significant turn from the second quarter, which saw less than $1 billion in CRE CLO issuance. Office-backed loans represented almost half of all CRE delinquencies in the third quarter, according to DBRS. An overall 3.27% delinquency rate for CRE CLOs in the third quarter was roughly in line with the second quarter rate, according to DBRS. There were $2.67 billion in delinquent CRE CLO loans as of September, a $20 million increase from the second quarter.

Persons: Marco Bello, DBRS Morningstar, CLOs, Loans, CRE CLOs, CRE, Matt Tracy, David Gregorio Our Organizations: U.S, DBRS, CRE, Thomson Locations: Miami, Biscayne Bay, Brickell, Downtown, Miami , Florida, U.S, DBRS, delinquencies

☆ Morgan Stanley: These are the best 65 stocks to buy in 2024 as investors face macroeconomic headwinds, lower growth, and restrictive monetary policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-19 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Here's how Morgan Stanley thinks the stock market will move in 2024, the economic warning signs investors should watch for, and which stocks are best positioned to outperform next year. A stronger stock market in 2024You'd think with the myriad problems stocks are facing right now that the market is in for a difficult year ahead. Wilson believes that earnings growth will accelerate as the year progresses. Morgan StanleyBeyond strong earnings growth for individual companies, Wilson expects that increased spending in a variety of industries will provide fiscal support across the market. Guided by the themes above, Wilson polled Morgan Stanley analysts for their top stock picks heading into 2024.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley Wilson, Wilson, Jerome Powell Organizations: Business, Reserve, Walmart, Target, Fed, White House Locations: headwinds, bailouts

☆ Get ready for a blowout Black Friday
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Hayley Peterson | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Black Friday and holiday sales might be bigger and better this year. Retailers may need to offer steeper discounts than last year to entice tepid shoppers to spend. AdvertisementGet ready for some killer sales on holiday goods. All of this could be adding up to a perfect storm for some blowout Black Friday and holiday sales. But the biggest winners of all in a blowout Black Friday, of course, would be shoppers.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Walmart, Adobe Analytics, Target

☆ Stocks to outperform fixed income in 2024, says Barclays
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Caitlin Ochs/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 16 (Reuters) - Global equities are set to outperform core fixed-income assets next year, as threats of a global economic slowdown have declined, Barclays strategists said in a note on Thursday. We think stocks will benefit from a fairly benign bottom to this business cycle and look through near-term earnings disappointments," said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chairman of research at Barclays. "We now turn overweight (on) global equities over core fixed income." Barclays expects mid-to-high single-digit equity returns in both the U.S. and Europe next year, even as bond yields stay elevated. JP Morgan had recommended commodities over stocks and bonds.

Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Goldman Sachs, J.P.Morgan, JP Morgan, Roshan Abraham, Susan Mathew, Janane Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Barclays, Treasury, U.S, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, Bengaluru

The Wall Street sign is pictured at the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., March 9, 2020. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 16 (Reuters) - U.S. bank profits are expected to shrink in the coming months, but the industry has regained its footing after the biggest bank failures since the 2008 financial crisis, analysts said. "Nobody wants to own a lot of bank stocks, whether it's large cap, mid cap, ahead of a credit crunch, ahead of a recession." Michaud, CEO of KBW:"There are a lot of healthier banks, I think, that would look to acquire the banks that have low credit performance. Reporting by Lananh Nguyen, Nupur Anand and Pete Schroeder in New York Editing by Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Thomas Michaud, Keefe, Erika Najarian, Morgan Stanley, We're, Eugene Ludwig, Ludwig, Mitch Eitel, Sullivan, Cromwell, " Michaud, Lananh Nguyen, Nupur Anand, Pete Schroeder, Mark Potter Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, delinquencies, UBS, Ludwig Advisors, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, New York

☆ Morning Bid: Ebbing oil sustains economic glow
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Word "Oil" and stock graph are seen through magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. That drop, which takes annual producer price inflation as low as 1.3%, was driven largely by falling gasoline prices. And that meets news that China's oil refinery throughput fell back in October as industrial fuel demand weakened. The overall energy and inflation picture is helping buoy consumption and stokes the 'soft landing' narrative investors are betting on. The picture in overseas markets, where the economic picture is cloudier, was more mixed.

Persons: magnifier, Dado Ruvic, Mike Dolan, stokes, Mary Daly, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Xi, Biden, Washington, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, John Williams, Michael Barr, Loretta Mester, Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos, Andrea Enria, Dave Ramsden, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Walmart, Federal, San Francisco Fed, Treasury, U.S . Senate, Philadelphia Fed, Kansas City Fed, Applied, Ross Stores, Federal Reserve, Lisa Cook , New York Fed, Cleveland Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, New York Federal Reserve, Insider Intelligence, Reuters Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, United States, China . U.S, Target, San Francisco, Taiwan, China, Kansas, Treasuries, Lisa Cook , New, Franciso, Reuters Graphics China

REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBENGALURU, Nov 16 (Reuters) - India's central bank on Thursday tightened norms for personal loans and credit cards, raising the risk of slowing loan growth. Reuters GraphicsRBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said last month the central bank was closely monitoring some fast-growing personal loan categories for signs of stress. Subsequently, Reuters reported that the RBI was particularly concerned with the surge in small personal loans and was considering tighter rules for such borrowings. Unsecured personal loans increased 23% from a year ago as of Sept. 22, 2023, while outstanding amounts on credit cards jumped nearly 30%, central bank data shows. "In particular, limits shall be prescribed for all unsecured consumer credit exposures," the central bank said.

Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, Dhananjay Sinha, Shaktikanta Das, Transunion, Systematix, Sinha, Siddhi Nayak, Ira Dugal, Shinjini Ganguli, Dhanya Ann Thoppil Organizations: Bank of India, REUTERS, Rights, Reserve Bank of, NBFCs, Systematix Research, Reuters, Siddhi, Sethuraman NR, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Reserve Bank of India, Bengaluru

Retail sales fell 0.1% last month after jumping a strong 0.9% in September, according to a report released Wednesday by the Commerce Department. Excluding sales of gas and autos, retail sales ticked up 0.1%. “The October retail sales report was stronger than expectations, but confirmed a slowdown in consumption,” Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note to clients. Restaurants and bars reported a 0.3% sales increase, though that was much lower than September's 1.6% gain. The government’s monthly retail sales report offers only a partial look at consumer spending; it doesn’t include many services, including health care, travel and hotel lodging.

Persons: “, ” Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Commerce Department, Consumer, Walmart, Target, Federal Reserve, National Retail Federation Locations: U.S, Europe, United States

☆ JPMorgan's stock guru Kolanovic says don't buy the market bounce, stocks are overvalued and consumer is in trouble
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The S & P 500 is up more than 7% in November, but JPMorgan wrote to clients this week that the rebound is just a head fake. The biggest bank in the country thinks stocks are expensive and consumer spending is set to slow. Rather, "a significant part of this move was technical in nature, driven by momentum strategies and short covering." The hurdles for the stock market are manifold, according to JPMorgan. Instead, JPMorgan recommends a defensive posture in its model portfolio, underweighting stocks and bonds and overweighting cash and commodities.

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan

☆ American consumers may be starting to buckle. Here are 5 warning signs a spending slowdown is on the horizon.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Americans are saving lessThe personal savings rate slumped to 3.4% in September. That's well-below the pre-pandemic savings rate, when Americans were stashing away around 7% of their disposable personal income. Consumers aren't planning to splurge this holiday seasonAmericans are less likely to splurge this holiday season than last year. McKinsey & CompanyAmericans are looking less likely to splurge, even as they head into the holiday season. "Hiring for the holiday season is generally done in October, and adding up new jobs created in the BLS-defined holiday season retail sectors in the latest employment report shows that retailers expect a weaker holiday season," Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok said in a note on Tuesday.

Persons: Macquarie, Thierry Wizman, —, Wizman, Morgan Stanley, Torsten Slok Organizations: Service, Macquarie Global, New York Fed, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Conference, Conference Board, McKinsey & Company, McKinsey, Apollo, of Labor Statistics Holiday, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS Locations: York

☆ Former top Baltimore prosecutor convicted of federal perjury charges
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Steve Gorman | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Nov 9 (Reuters) - Baltimore's former top prosecutor Marilyn Mosby was found guilty of perjury on Thursday for falsely claiming financial duress to withdraw funds from a retirement plan. A U.S. District Court jury in Greenbelt, Maryland, convicted Mosby, 42, on both federal perjury counts she faced after hours of deliberation. Mosby, a Democrat, lost her bid for a third term after she was indicted on federal charges in January 2022. Mosby's defense team argued in court that she did not lie in stating financial hardship because her private travel business took a hit during the pandemic. None of the six officers charged in his death was convicted.

Persons: Marilyn Mosby, Mosby, Freddie Gray, Prosecutors, Gray, Steve Gorman, Michael Perry Organizations: Maryland, Baltimore, Democrat, Maryland U.S, Attorney's, Prosecutors, Internal Revenue Service, Thomson Locations: U.S, Greenbelt , Maryland, Maryland, COVID, Florida, Los Angeles

“So many more people have credit cards now.”Wise says the main thing to watch for is how strapped consumers are in their overall financial condition. There are signs the consumer may still have a little left in the tank. And speaking of tanks, gas prices have been coming down, a move that will free up a little more money for consumers to spend. And this occurred while consumers repeatedly tell surveys they are feeling gloomy and pessimistic about the state of the economy. The pace of increase in consumer prices has fallen from around 9% annually in the summer of 2022 to under 4% now.

Persons: ”, Donghoon Lee, “, TransUnion, TrasnUnion, Charlie Wise, ” Wise, we’ve, ” Patrick De Haan, De Haan, Lisa Sturtevant, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Joseph Brusuelas, Tuan Nyugen Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York Fed, TransUnion, “, MLS, Federal, ” Goldman, Adobe Locations: U.S, California

☆ Average credit card balances top $6,000, a 10-year high, as delinquencies rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Americans now owe $1.08 trillion on their credit cards, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported Tuesday. Credit card rates spiked more than 5% with the Federal Reserve's recent string of 11 rate hikes, including four in 2023. As the federal funds rate rose, the prime rate did, as well, and credit card rates followed suit. "Americans are addicted to credit cards, no question," said Howard Dvorkin, a certified public accountant and the chairman of Debt.com. How to tackle costly credit card debt

Persons: TransUnion, Charlie Wise, Wise, Greg McBride, Howard Dvorkin, Debt.com Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, TransUnion, Federal, Finance, Bankrate, Debt.com Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, TransUnion

"It's pretty simple - you can't make a big business decision today without a geopolitical perspective," Orszag said in an interview at the Reuters NEXT conference in New York. Lazard has a geopolitical advisory unit that analyzes world events and their potential impact on clients' businesses. Orszag set an ambitious goal of doubling the investment bank's revenue by 2030. Some investment banks have laid off thousands of employees and cut other costs after several quarters of lethargic dealmaking. [1/5]Peter Orszag, CEO of Lazard, speaks with Reuters journalist Lananh Nguyen during the ReutersNEXT Newsmaker event in New York City, New York, U.S., November 9, 2023.

Persons: Peter Orszag, Orszag, Lazard, lethargic, Lananh Nguyen, Brendan McDermid, dealmaking, Brian Moynihan, Obama, We're, Leela de Kretser, Mark Porter, Emelia Organizations: Reuters NEXT, Wall, Reuters, REUTERS, Bank of America, reuters, Thomson Locations: China, Ukraine, New York, New York City , New York, U.S

☆ As more consumers struggle with credit card debt, here's what to know heading into the holiday season
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Sharon Epperson | In Sharoneppersoncnbc | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

That climbing "credit card delinquencies" rate may trend higher this holiday season. Knowing what the words credit card delinquencies mean is important because being delinquent or late with card payments can lower your credit score. Annual percentage rate (APR)If you're paying for holiday purchases with a credit card, you should know the annual percentage rate, or APR, on it before you buy. The average APR on a credit card is more than 21%, according to Bankrate, and nearly 30% for retail store credit cards. A LendingTree survey of 100 cards found some retail cards can have interest rates as high as 35%.

Persons: Matt Schulz, LendingTree Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New

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