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☆ Fed's Jefferson: inflation 'insidious,' need to bring it down
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

PALO ALTO, Calif., May 12 - Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson said on Friday he is just as serious about the central bank's goal of full employment as about its mandate for stable prices, but emphasized that bringing high inflation down is critical. "I care very much about how the labor market performs because for most people in the U.S. economy, their standing in the labor market will very much determine their station in life, so that's something I'm very mindful of," Jefferson said in answer to a question at conference at the Hoover Institution. "But I also am aware that inflation is the most insidious of social diseases, and so it's important to try to get it down," he said. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by William MallardOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Indeed a third U.S. central banker speaking early in the day, Governor Michelle Bowman, signaled she feels further policy tightening may yet be appropriate, unless inflation drops more convincingly. The Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate five full percentage points over the past 14 months - the fastest pace of tightening in 40 years. Yes," Fed Governor Philip Jefferson said at a monetary policy conference at the Hoover Institution. That's notable from a policymaker who was among the first and most vocal to push for sharp rate hikes to fight inflation, back in mid-2021. But since then, he said, the Fed's rate hikes have helped bring down what had been a worrying rise in inflation expectations that, if left unchecked, could have sent actual inflation spiraling out of control.

☆ AMERICAS Debt cap tick-tock leaves eerie calm
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The issue dominated much of the G7 finance chiefs meeting in Japan. Dimon claimed any technical default could cause financial panic and JPMorgan had convened a 'war room' internally to deal with the issue. "It's very unfortunate, it's time-consuming, hopefully it won't happen, but it affects contracts, collateral, clearing houses, clients," Dimon said. Chinese stocks underperformed, with the G7 meeting mulling restrictions on investment to the world's second-biggest economy. Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaksReuters GraphicsJobless claimsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by Christina Fincher, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

☆ Good news for markets next week. Everyone agrees the debt ceiling 'X-date' is not here yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Good news for markets next week: no default, no credit agency downgrade, no apocalypse. Worrying 2011 precedent Recent history tells investors that stocks will move more violently during a debt ceiling standoff. Retail sales update Debt negotiations aside, investors get updates next week on the state of American consumer spending when April retail sales are reported Tuesday alongside earnings from Home Depot. Deutsche Bank estimates that April retail sales expanded month over month by 0.7%, the market consensus. Credit Suisse is less optimistic, forecasting that April retail sales grew by 0.6%, but, excluding vehicles, were unchanged.

If confirmed, Kugler, a Colombian-American, would be the first Latino to serve on the Fed board, marking the latest effort by Biden to improve the central bank’s diversity. Kugler, who is currently on leave from Georgetown University, previously worked in the Obama administration as the Labor Department’s chief economist. Getty Images/AlamyJefferson, who joined the Fed as a governor a year ago, has been tapped by Biden to the influential role of vice chair, serving as the No. He joined the Fed board in May 2022, after winning broad bipartisan support during his congressional confirmation process. He taught economics at Swarthmore College, Columbia University and the University of Virginia, and served as a high-ranking administrator at Davidson College.

☆ Fed Governor Philip Jefferson named as new vice chair to succeed Lael Brainard
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson will be nominated by President Joe Biden to be vice chairman of the central bank's board, the White House announced Friday. As vice chair, he takes a position last occupied by Lael Brainard, who is now Biden's director of the National Economic Council. Before coming to the Fed, Jefferson was a professor of economics as well as vice president for academic affairs and dean of faculty at Davidson College. The nomination was not unexpected; multiple media outlets had reported that Jefferson was Biden's likely choice as vice chair. If confirmed, Jefferson would be the second Black person to hold the vice chair position.

Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsInvestors and analysts took the Labor Department report on the whole as supporting the prospect that the Fed would pause its rate increases at the June 13-14 meeting. The PCE, which is the Fed's preferred gauge for its 2% inflation target, has been running at more than twice that level. Continued readings like the ones in April could weaken the case for pausing rate hikes. That's how increases in its policy rate influence economic activity. FEDSPEAK: OngoingThe Fed's internal communications rules set a "blackout" period around each policy meeting.

Spot gold was unchanged at $2,032.86 per ounce, as of 0201 GMT. Although gold is considered a hedge against inflation, rising interest rates dull non-yielding bullion's appeal. "The outlook of a weak U.S. currency and yields reignite the safe haven status of gold. Worries over the global economy and demand-supply outlook may also support the commodity in the near future," Hareesh added. Spot silver fell 0.1% at $25.58 per ounce, platinum edged 0.1% higher to $1,105.82, and palladium gained 0.1% at $1,571.23.

"When you get into higher interest rates ... you look to your collateral," Rodeheaver said in an interview. "We are tightening on price and profitability ... That is going to slow lending a bit." "The economy has started to slow in an orderly fashion" in response to higher interest rates, Jefferson said, calling tighter credit conditions "part of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy." Powell, however, said he felt the impact of the credit shock "remains uncertain," and his own baseline outlook does not include a recession. Bank lending dipped about 1.7% in the two weeks following SVB's collapse, but has risen since then and recouped about a third of the decline.

☆ Gold holds steady ahead of U.S. inflation print
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold bars are displayed at a bullion merchant's, Baird & Co., in London, U.K., on Friday, March 14, 2008. Gold prices were flat on Wednesday, as traders positioned themselves for key U.S inflation data due later in the day, which could impact the Federal Reserve's policy stance. Although gold is considered a hedge against inflation, rising interest rates dull non-yielding bullion's appeal. "The outlook of a weak U.S. currency and yields reignite the safe haven status of gold. Spot silver fell 0.1% at $25.58 per ounce, platinum edged 0.1% higher to $1,105.82, and palladium gained 0.1% at $1,571.23.

☆ Morning Bid: Showdown on the ceiling
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

With world markets still at an impasse on the extent of the economic slowdown and chance of recession, the U.S. debt ceiling impasse remains unresolved - and Tuesday's showdown at the White House is one of the few opportunities left to resolve it. Biden meets Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy for the first time since February. There are only six days this month when the House and the Senate are in session when Biden is in Washington. Longer-term Treasury yields remain under wraps, however, with 2-year yields hovering just under 4%. DEBT CEILINGBeyond the debt ceiling row, the picture of the wider economy remains equivocal.

☆ Treasury yields dip as investors await Fed speaker remarks, inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday as investors looked to comments from Federal Reserve speakers and inflation data that could provide hints about the outlook for the economy and monetary policy. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by around two basis points to 3.4976%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading over two basis points lower at 3.9888%. Fed officials including Fed Governor Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams are expected to give remarks on Tuesday. Investors will be scanning their comments for insights into the central bank's expectations for the U.S. economy and what that could mean for interest rate policy decisions.

☆ Fed's Jefferson says economy slowing in "orderly" manner
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, May 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is slowing in an "orderly fashion" that should allow inflation to decline even as growth continues, Fed Governor Philip Jefferson said on Tuesday. "The economy has started to slow in an orderly fashion...I am of the view that inflation will start to come down and the economy will have the opportunity to continue to expand," Jefferson said in comments to the Atlanta Black Chambers business group. But his remarks did indicate hope for a "soft landing" in which inflation cools without a dramatic drop in economic activity. Jefferson said that the recent tightening of credit standards by banks, reflected in a Fed survey released on Monday, was "typical" for where the U.S. is in the economic cycle and a "natural part" of the Fed's monetary tightening. Reporting by Howard SchneiderOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ S&P 500 futures are flat as investors await closely followed inflation data: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

S&P 500 futures are little changed Monday night as investors readied for key inflation reports due later in the week. S&P 500 futures inched down by 0.05%, while Nasdaq-100 futures shed 0.1%. The S&P 500 finished 0.05% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite ended with a gain of nearly 0.2%. Fox Corp. and Nikola are among companies set to report quarterly earnings before the bell, followed by Airbnb and Rivian after the market closes. Earnings season is beginning to wind down with more than 85% of the stocks in the S&P 500 done reporting.

☆ Biden expected to nominate Jefferson as next Federal Reserve vice chair -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

WASHINGTON, May 3 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to nominate Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson as the next vice chair, two sources familiar with the matter said on WednesdayIn addition, economist Adrian Kugler is expected to be nominated to an open Fed board seat, with an announcement anticipated in coming days, the sources said. Reporting by Costas Pitas; writing by Jasper Ward; editing by Dan WhitcombOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: RBA shock hike starts huge week for central banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Asia markets correspondent Kevin Buckland. The Reserve Bank of Australia kicked off a string of major central bank meetings this week by surprising markets with a quarter-point rate hike, when most had been positioned for a pause. The debate among policy makers is whether to opt for another half-point hike or slow to a quarter-point pace. The Fed, meanwhile, is widely expected to hike rates by a final quarter point and then signal a pause. Money markets are still betting on a Fed rate cut before the end of the year.

☆ White House considers two key nominations at the Fed - NYT
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

May 1 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden is closing in on two nominations for the Federal Reserve's Board and is likely to nominate Adriana Kugler for the position of governor and Philip Jefferson as the board's vice chair, the New York Times reported on Monday. Reporting by Mrinmay Dey in Bengaluru, Editing by Franklin PaulOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ White House Close to Tapping Philip Jefferson for Fed Vice Chair, Adriana Kugler for Board
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Andrew Restuccia | Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Philip Jefferson has indicated support for the Federal Reserve’s efforts to raise interest rates rapidly to slow the economy and bring down inflation. Photo: Ken Cedeno/Press PoolWASHINGTON—President Biden is close to nominating Federal Reserve governor Philip Jefferson to serve as the central bank’s second-in-command and Adriana Kugler, an economist and top World Bank official, to fill a vacancy on the Fed’s board, according to people familiar with the matter. If confirmed, Ms. Kugler, a Colombian-American economist who now serves as the U.S. executive director at the World Bank, would be the first Latino to serve on the board. Mr. Jefferson would be the Fed’s second Black vice chair. Mr. Biden faced pressure from Sen. Robert Menendez (D., N.J.), a senior member of the Senate Banking Committee, to nominate a Latino economist to the central bank, which has never had a Latino serve as a Fed governor or Fed president.

☆ White House Considers Two Key Nominations at the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | Jim Tankersley | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON — President Biden is closing in on two nominations for the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors that would give the Fed its first Latina board member and its second ever Black vice chair, according to several people familiar with the process. Mr. Biden is close to nominating Adriana Kugler, an economist with Colombian heritage who is the U.S. executive director of the World Bank, to the Fed’s only remaining open governor position. In a corresponding move, he is likely to elevate Philip Jefferson, an economist who was confirmed overwhelmingly to the board when Mr. Biden nominated him to an open governor position, to be the board’s vice chair. A White House spokesman declined to comment on Monday. If confirmed by the Senate, Ms. Kugler would fill a governor position recently vacated by Lael Brainard, who became director of the White House National Economic Council in February.

☆ Softer dollar buoys gold, but banking optimism limits safe-haven appeal
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Gold might retest support at $1,945/oz - technicalsU.S. dollar down 0.2%Global stocks rise on TuesdayMarch 28 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose on Tuesday as the dollar slipped, although an improvement in risk appetite after efforts by regulators to allay fears over the global banking system limited the safe-haven metal's appeal. "The U.S. dollar seems to be stabilising, this should entice fresh buying back into the (gold) market," said Clifford Bennett, chief economist at ACY Securities. However, gold remains the "resolute safe-haven" in a "rolling risk environment" for the banking sector as risks of contagion are far more persistent than the market would like to believe, Bennett added. Gold might retest a support at $1,945 per ounce, a break below could open the way towards $1,927, Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao said. Spot silver eased 0.1% to $23.06 per ounce, while platinum rose 0.5% to $976.87 and palladium added 0.7% at $1,418.44.

☆ Stocks gain, US treasury yields rise as banking fear eases
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Xie Yu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) edged up 0.3% by early morning Hong Kong time. U.S. Treasury yields rose on optimism that stress in the banking sector could be contained and as the Treasury Department saw soft demand for a sale of two-year notes. Benchmark 10-year yields rose to 3.5317%, up from its U.S. close of 3.528% on Monday. Two-year yields rose to 3.957%, up from a six-month low of 3.555% on Friday but below the almost 16-year high of 5.084% hit on March 8. By Tuesday morning Hong Kong time, Brent crude futures and West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude were both hovering around Monday’s closing levels.

☆ Asia wary, US stock futures up on SVB reports
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Helping nerves were reports First Citizens BancShares Inc (FCNCA.O) was in advanced talks to acquire Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.S&P 500 futures firmed 0.5% in early trade while Nasdaq futures added 0.4%. "The current level of credit default swaps for European banks is just a little lower than it was during the height of the European financial crisis in 2013," noted Naeem Aslam Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets. "If these CDS do not normalise, it is highly likely stock market may continue to suffer for many days." Over in the United States, depositors have been fleeing smaller banks for their larger cousins or to money market funds. Flows to money market funds have risen by more than $300 billion in the past month to a record atop $5.1 trillion.

☆ Morning Bid: Brittle banks find a berth
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

With few fresh weekend developments on the European bank stock rigor late last week, European bourses and bank stocks found a level too. Deutsche Bank, whose stock lurched lower on Friday amid fears about rising bank funding costs, regained about 3% on Monday. Deposits at small banks fell by $120 billion in the week to March 15, while borrowing jumped $253 billion. Economists polled by Reuters expect the headline year-on-year inflation rate to have cooled to 7.2% from 8.5% in February. * U.S. Treasury auctions 2-year notes* U.S. corporate earnings: CarnivalReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by Ed Osmond, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

☆ Fed's Jefferson: Trouble among small, regional banks could hit small businesses
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LEXINGTON, Virginia, March 27 (Reuters) - The shuffling of deposits from small to large banks could have a disproportionate impact on U.S. small businesses who depend heavily on community and regional financial institutions for credit, Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson said on Monday. "We are focused on the macroeconomy but we are aware that there are potential distributional aspects," if depositors move cash away from smaller banks, Jefferson said. Recent banking sector stress has led to declining deposits at smaller institutions and "we are going to have to see how that plays out," Jefferson said. Reporting by Howard Schneider Editing by Chris ReeseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Banks are leaking money
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

There is some relief that First Citizens BancShares Inc (FCNCA.O) is in advanced talks to acquire Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O). There was also some talk the Federal Reserve could expand its new lending programme for banks as another step to reassuring depositors. Money is clearly flowing out of smaller banks toward their bigger siblings and to money market funds, which have seen an inflow of more than $300 billion in the past month to a record $5.1 trillion. Capital Economics points out that deposits across all the banks have fallen by $663 billion in the past year as customers search for higher yield. Deutsche Bank's five-year CDS hit 222 bps on Friday, the highest since late 2018, while UBS CDS shot up to 139 bps.

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