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☆ Morning Bid: Markets brush off OPEC as factories stall
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanRelatively calm world markets have brushed off OPEC's latest twist and focussed more squarely on stalled global manufacturing and edgy U.S.-China relations. Crude oil prices held much of Monday's pop higher on the surprise weekend production cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. But Brent crude remains below levels seen just before the Silicon Valley Bank bust last month and is still tracking year-on-year declines of 20%. Strikingly, both short and long-term inflation expectations embedded in the Treasury markets , have barely budged since the OPEC news. McCarthy, the third-most-senior U.S. leader after the president and vice president, is due to host a meeting in California on Wednesday with Tsai.

☆ Morning Bid: Crude cut complicates Q2
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Brent crude surged on Monday in response, settling about 5% higher than Friday's close. The mild reaction in the rates and bond markets to the OPEC move reflects some of that. Asia and Europe's main stock indices were steady to higher, with S&P500 futures only marginally in the red ahead of Monday's open. The VIX (.VIX) volatility index was a touch higher, though still below 20, and the dollar (.DXY) was up smartly. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index teetered back on the 50 dividing line between expansion and contraction again in March.

LONDON, March 31 (Reuters) - Even after a bank shock that could well have changed the whole picture, investors appear reluctant to give up the ghost just yet. The tech-heavy, interest-rate sensitive Nasdaq (.IXIC) is up 14% and even broad European bank stock indices (.SX7P) are still up more than 4% for the year. Pull the lens out as far as it can go and MSCI's all-country index of world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) is up more than 5%. That U-turn in thinking during the month saw wild swings in the bond and rates markets, where key volatility gauges (.MOVE) hit their highest since the 2008 crash. by Mike Dolan; Editing by Toby Chopra; Twitter: @reutersMikeDOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: World markets leaving March like a lamb
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanIn like a lion, out like a lamb. Farmers' almanacs suggest a stormy and turbulent start to March means it's likely to end calm and serene - and so it appears with world financial markets this year. The evidence is sketchy so far and the impact on lending and credit generally will be examined forensically from here. That U-turn in thinking during the month saw wild swings in the bond and rates markets, where key volatility gauges (.MOVE) hit their highest since the 2008 crash. (.CESIUSD)Elsewhere, European markets continued to advance on Thursday, with banking stocks (.SX7P) up another 2% and credit default swaps on many banks lower too.

☆ Morning Bid: Brittle banks find a berth
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

With few fresh weekend developments on the European bank stock rigor late last week, European bourses and bank stocks found a level too. Deutsche Bank, whose stock lurched lower on Friday amid fears about rising bank funding costs, regained about 3% on Monday. Deposits at small banks fell by $120 billion in the week to March 15, while borrowing jumped $253 billion. Economists polled by Reuters expect the headline year-on-year inflation rate to have cooled to 7.2% from 8.5% in February. * U.S. Treasury auctions 2-year notes* U.S. corporate earnings: CarnivalReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by Ed Osmond, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

☆ Morning Bid: Central banks try to see through stress
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanEven with a nod to greater banking stress, the major central banks all seem determined to tighten the monetary screw another notch. With Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's pushback against suggestions of a blanket insurance of all U.S. banking deposits unnerving investors again after the Fed decision, few believe the financial stress has fully dissipated. Even though stock markets swooned after the Yellen comments on Wednesday, S&P500 futures were back up smartly ahead of Thursday's open. European bourses and banking stocks were only a touch lower in the face of the latest European rate rises. The dollar hit its lowest since early February but regained its footing ahead of the U.S. open and BoE decision.

☆ Construction leaders are using technology to help push the boundaries of possibility
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Sponsor Post | Created Insider Studios With Lenovo | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Leading construction company Laing O'Rourke has been at the cutting edge of building innovation for decades. Construction company Laing O'Rourke is delivering some of the world's most complex and challenging building and infrastructure projects. Leading construction innovationFor decades, Laing O'Rourke has invested in technology and innovation. Lenovo's technology was a critical enabler for many of the Laing O'Rourke projects above. To this end, Laing O'Rourke has also invested in Lenovo's ThinkReality and Mirage headsets.

☆ Morning Bid: Leaning back to Fed hike, UK inflation jolt
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Two weeks of U.S. and European banking stress and failures leaves the Federal Reserve and other major central banks in the unenviable position of choosing between stabilising financial systems and fighting still historically high inflation. On top of that, the latest quarterly economic projections from Fed policymakers may reveal a big dispersion of views. Beyond the Fed, the dire UK inflation reading seems to have solidified expectations of another BoE rate rise on Thursday and a further move later in the year. If nothing else, it underlines in red ink just how all central banks are totally dependent now on incoming data evidence on what's happening in the real economy. With the U.S. dollar lower across the board ahead of the Fed meeting, sterling hit its highest level since early February.

Even though reading anything with certainty from such volatile prices is difficult right now, the runes of the bond market suggest unfolding banking stress will suppress inflation anyway - regardless of further central bank action. "That would be very much in line with what the central banks want." U.S. equivalents were steadier about 2.5%, but five-year "breakeven" inflation rates from the index-linked market fell to 2.3%. To be fair to central bank policymakers, their own early warning systems - such as the ECB's Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress - don't yet show any more pressure on the system than they did during last year's tightening. Armed with Thursday's trial run from the ECB, the Fed and BoE will now have to make that judgment next week.

☆ Morning Bid: Swiss lifeline, ECB dilemma
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The Swiss lender said it would exercise an option to borrow from its central bank up to 50 billion Swiss francs ($54 billion). That followed assurances from Swiss authorities on Wednesday the country's second largest bank met "the capital and liquidity requirements imposed on systemically important banks". Policymakers and regulators across Europe and Asia rushed to reassure the public and markets that banks in their jurisdictions were safe and well-capitalised. Like other central banks, the ECB has been raising interest rates rapidly to curb inflation and has since July tightened credit at its fastest pace on record. As it stands, money markets now price an 80% chance the ECB will move tentatively and only hike by a quarter point to 2.75%.

The move will not lead to losses by American taxpayers and all depositors will be made whole, the statement said. “Today we are taking decisive actions to protect the U.S. economy by strengthening public confidence in our banking system,” the statement said. SVB equity and bondholders would be wiped out, said the official, who briefed reporters after the announcement. The Biden administration will work with Congress and financial regulators to consider additional actions to further strengthen the financial system, the official said. The official said the economy remains in good shape but officials would continue to take steps to ensure the financial system remains strong.

And it's little surprise the International Monetary Fund forecast Britain would be the only economy of the G7 to contract this year. But certainly the potential for improved trade relations with the UK's biggest trading partner is clear. Unicredit this month cited estimates that the UK economy would underperform by 5-7% over 10 years if it remains outside the EU single market and customs union. It may even have been a key spur to this week's breakthrough given the frayed geopolitical backdrop. President Joe Biden has long insisted there would be no progress on a U.S. deal with Britain until the Northern Irish conundrum was resolved.

☆ Morning Bid: War and PCE
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith world headlines focussed on first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the inflationary consequences that pounded world markets last year still smoulder. Curiously, the initial energy shock from the Ukraine war is already less of a problem than the change in pricing behaviour that it seeded - especially in services still distorted by the pandemic, in corporate margin building and rising wage settlements. But it's the pickup and stickiness in underlying "core" prices, excluding energy and food, that is irking the central banks and the Federal Reserve most of all. Alongside another tight U.S. weekly jobs report, markets got another glimpse of those price pressures on Thursday. And increasingly buoyed by the still intense geopolitical fallout from a year of the war in Ukraine, the dollar pushed higher yet again.

☆ Morning Bid: Blue chips cheered up
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] The logo of technology company Nvidia is seen at its headquarters in Santa Clara, California February 11, 2015. Its CEO Jensen Huang said use of its chips to power AI had "gone through the roof in the last 60 days." The Federal Reserve at least seems keen on the higher-for-longer message that's shaken world stock and bond markets this week. And as the minutes pre-date red-hot jobs and retail data for January, the message from Fed officials is probably even sterner now. A Reuters poll of equity analysts showed global stock markets are expected to correct in the next three months.

☆ Morning Bid: Elusive peaks
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Unlike much of last year, the rates market is now inclined to believe the central bank on the direction of travel. And implied year-end rates are as high as 5.12% - almost half a point higher than where the current rate sits. Two-year Treasury yields hit a three-month high at 4.72% on Friday, with 10-year yields at 3-month peaks too - homing in on 4% for the first time since November. So as impressive as this week's stock market resilience had been to the new inflation and rates environment, it appears to be buckling again already. Key developments that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:* U.S. Jan import and export prices, leading indicator.

☆ Morning Bid: Growth trumps rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

While there were some questions about seasonal adjustments in the data, economists were impressed that sales growth was pretty broad based and have scrambled to re-crunch first quarter U.S. output forecasts as a result. There may be a more mixed picture from Thursday's data slate on producer prices, housing starts and weekly jobless claims. Even though rates futures and Treasury yields ticked back a bit today, pricing now has Fed policy rates moving as high as 5.25% and staying above 5% all year. And while full-year earnings growth estimates for S&P500 companies have sunk to zero, consensus forecasts are now pencilling in a rebound of almost 12% next year. Uncertainty about the pace of growth and annual tax receipts in April makes it difficult for government officials to predict the exact "X-date", it said.

☆ Morning Bid: Runaway Tech arrested
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The coast may be clearing on interest rates but a spluttering economy still has the power to check runaway stock markets. Friday's release of January's U.S. employment report will provide some clues - but Big Tech gave its own readout on Thursday. Apple earnings fell short of expectations and it forecast revenue would fall for a second quarter in a row. But even though iPhone sales fell for the first time since 2020, it said sales were likely to improve as production had returned to normal in China after COVID-related shutdowns. To what extent layoffs in the tech sector are fanning out across the economy will be monitored in the payrolls report later and the Fed will be watching wage growth like a hawk.

☆ Morning Bid: A quart and two halves
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. February kicked off on Wednesday without too much trepidation about how all that will pan out. Before the Fed announcement, ADP releases its January private sector employment readout for last month and markets will also scan the December JOLTS job openings report. While markets await the 'Triple-A' of Big Tech releases on Thursday, Meta (META.O) is due to report later today and the dour news from elsewhere in the tech sector kept coming. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: 'Soft landing' or 'no landing'?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

As U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee kicks off its two-day policymaking meeting, the economic news from around the world brightened considerably. China's economic activity swung back to growth in January after three months of contraction, according to official business surveys released on Tuesday. The euro zone economy confounded forecasts for a quarterly contraction of gross domestic product in the final three months of 2022. Eurostat estimated GDP in the bloc rose 0.1% in Q4 despite consensus expectations for a fall of 0.1%. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning bid: Parsing the peak, sidestepping a slump
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"We are turning the corner on inflation," BoC Governor Tiff Macklem told reporters, while dismissing any thought of policy easing for now. Just how bad the underlying economy gets before the central banks are done is the other burning question. On the activity side, the prospect of reviving growth in China and the euro zone certainly changes the international picture. In Europe, STMicroelectronics jumped 8% after the chipmaker reported a sales beat and Finnish telecom equipment maker Nokia jumped 5% after its own beat. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ European shares slip, euro firm as data tees up ECB rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/StaffLONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - The euro held near a nine-month high against the dollar on Tuesday, though European stocks eased after regional business activity data reinforced expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise rates by a further 50 basis points. S&P Global's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to 50.2 this month from 49.3 in December, the first time it has been above the 50 mark since June. "For the ECB, this should seal the deal for a 50-basis point hike next week," said ING economists in a note. The Federal Reserve's rate setting committee concludes its two-day meeting on Feb. 1, with the ECB and Bank of England meeting the next day. The euro , in contrast was steady at $1.0862, just off its nine-month high of $1.0927 hit a day before.

☆ Morning bid: Tech tonic, recession rethink
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Pumped-up hopes for U.S. tech sector earnings in a heavy week for corporate updates generally have twinned with the latest sign Europe may have dodged a winter recession. With Microsoft in view, attention will be on the extent for cost cutting and job shedding in the tech and digital space. Music-streamer Spotify (SPOT.N) rose 2% on Monday as it joined a growing list of tech firms to announce staff cuts, shedding 6% of its workforce. Reports of Ford's F.N plan to cut 3,200 workers in Europe shows job attrition may not be confined to tech sector. Whether that's just too rosy and markets have yet to price a full-blown earnings recession is this year's big question.

☆ Morning bid: Netflix flickers
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

With the macro picture turning foggy again, streaming giant Netflix (NFLX.O) generated a rare bright spark in an otherwise gloomy corporate earnings season. But it has bounced back more than 60% from the lows of last June and the leadership shakeup may not shape the road ahead. With aggregate S&P500 earnings tracking a year-on-year contraction of about 3% for the fourth quarter, the Netflix news was welcome. In wider markets, a dour Thursday showed some retreat of the early year optimism on peaking central bank interest rates. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning bid: No safety net?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"I just think we need to keep going," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said. And many forecasters are now wary the Fed will err on the side of tighter policy to ensure inflation is slayed. Markets wobbled on the prospect on Wednesday, with the S&P500 (.SPX) staging its biggest decline of the year so far. At 3.32%, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to their lowest since September. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: Disinflation elation
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Whether the Federal Reserve policymakers will publicly chime with the disinflation narrative or not, many acknowledge their policy stance is now 'data dependent' from here. And unless disavowed of it by hard evidence, markets already assume the inflation battle is as good as won. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields were slightly lower. China's inflation rate crept back up last month too but it remains below 2% and annual producer price inflation is still in negative territory. Although UK bond yields and sterling skidded lower on Wednesday in mix of recession concerns and energy price disinflation hopes, there was better news on the retail front today.

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