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☆ There's a signal flashing in the bond market that says a recession is coming soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

There's a worrying signal in the bond market that suggests a recession could soon arrive. Investors have typically pointed to the spread between the two-year and 10-year Treasury yields as an indicator of a coming recession. The two-year yield surpassing that of the 10-year bond has been a signal that's preceded every economic slump since 1955. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security yields, which are adjusted for inflation, are currently hovering around 2.5%, Misra said. "The US Treasury yield curve is de-inverting very rapidly," Gundlach said in post on X, formerly known as Twitter, on Tuesday.

Persons: —, Priya Misra, That's, Misra, It's, Jeff Gundlach, Gundlach, Buckle Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Management, CNBC, Treasury Locations: Treasurys

☆ Billionaire investor Jeff Gundlach warns of a recession as markets roil: 'Buckle up'
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

"If the unemployment rate ticks up just a couple of tenths it will be recession alert," Gundlach wrote on X. AdvertisementAdvertisementBond-market turmoil could be a sign that a recession is on the way, Jeff Gundlach has warned. "The US Treasury yield curve is de-inverting very rapidly," Gundlach wrote in a post on X. That "should put everyone on recession warning, not just recession watch," he added. That's led to the gap in returns offered by 2- and 10-year Treasurys narrowing to just 33 basis points, for the tightest yield curve since late March.

Persons: Jeff Gundlach, Gundlach, Buckle, —, That's, –, David Lebovitz Organizations: DoubleLine, Service, Treasury, Federal Reserve, London School of Economics, JPMorgan

☆ The 'disinversion' of the curve makes a hard landing a lot more likely, says JPMorgan's Priya Misra
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe 'disinversion' of the curve makes a hard landing a lot more likely, says JPMorgan's Priya MisraPriya Misra, JPMorgan Asset Management fixed income portfolio manager, and Carol Schleif, BMO Family Office CIO, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the Fed's inflation fight, the impact of higher Treasury rates on the equity market, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's Priya Misra Priya Misra, Carol Schleif Organizations: JPMorgan, Management, BMO Family

☆ Economic resilience is boosting bond yields, says JPMorgan's David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomic resilience is boosting bond yields, says JPMorgan's David KellyDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the vote to remove Rep. McCarthy as speaker, the state of the bond market, the economy-at-large and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly David Kelly, McCarthy Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management

☆ Spiking bond yields are stoking financial chaos – and the Fed will have to clean up the mess, JPMorgan strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A financial crisis is brewing as bond yields soar, according to JPMorgan Asset Management's David Lebovitz. "Eventually there's going to be a financial accident… something will break," he said Monday. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementSoaring bond yields risk triggering financial chaos, a JPMorgan strategist has warned. Higher yields tend to be bad news for stocks – because they reduce the relative returns offered by a riskier asset class.

Persons: David Lebovitz, there's, —, they've Organizations: Asset, Service, JPMorgan, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Asset Management, Bloomberg, Wall, Treasury, Silicon Locations: California

☆ The Fed can hit their 2% objective faster than they think they can, says JPMorgan’s Gabriela Santos
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed can hit their 2% objective faster than they think they can, says JPMorgan’s Gabriela SantosGabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management chief market strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, recession outlook, the Fed's inflation fight, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan’s Gabriela Santos Gabriela Santos Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management

Making mistakes doesn't feel great, but they can provide some lessons you might not have learned otherwise. We asked this year's rising stars of Wall Street to open up about the biggest missteps of their careers so far and what they took away from them. Some shared their rookie errors — like slamming their laptop shut after forgetting to save their first big pitch deck or duplicating a trade — while others gave more reflective answers about how early career mistakes impacted their paths. We've got to iterate and change how we do things, and I think that's helped our team's process a lot. So my mistakes also brought me here, and everything that has been a mistake is always a learning experience.

Persons: there's, Luis Arteaga, David Trinh, you'll, Michael Dunn Goekjian, Tori Gilliland, didn't, It's, Andrew Almeida, Thoma Bravo I've, I've, Nadim Laiwala, Rachel Hunter, Goldman, Kristen Powers, Morgan Stanley, Sarah Sigfusson, Shanta Wu, Fred Michel, who's, Morgan, Neil Kamath, Rachel Barry, Chris Dell'Amore, We've, that's, Peter Gylfe, Ricky Mewani, Dominic Rizzo, Rowe Price, Lillian Qian Lin, of, Steve Schwarzman, Peter Peterson, Stephen Schwarzman, Blackstone, Patrick McGoldrick, Katya Brozyna, Michael Wilkinson, Yi Yi, Wells, Luna McKeon, —, Anne, Victoire Auriault, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Barclays, Delta, Barclays Bridgewater Associates, Bridgewater Associates, Apollo Management, Thoma Bravo, Moelis, US, Bank of, Fidelity, JPMorgan, BlackRock Blackstone, Citadel, Blackstone, Jefferies, Citadel Securities, Blue Owl, Goldman Locations: Bank, Evercore, Wells, Americas

☆ Ether futures ETFs hit the market
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEther futures ETFs hit the marketSimeon Hyman, head of investment strategy group at Proshares, and Bryon Lake, global head of ETF solution at JPMorgan Asset Management, join 'Halftime Report' to discuss three new ETFs coming to market today, the investor appetite for crypto ETFs, and the case for buying investment grade bond ETFs.

Persons: Simeon Hyman Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management

☆ Expecting a recession? Advisors say you could make 40% returns with a simple bond trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

As interest rates potentially peak, investment advisors say there are now opportunities for hefty gains through certain government bonds. This was during the Covid-19 pandemic when the Bank of England had just cut rates to 0.1%. "You potentially could make a good capital appreciation when interest rates start to fall," Amis added. Amis expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in August 2024. Meanwhile, interest rate traders in the U.S. expect the Federal Reserve to implement its first rate cut in July 2024.

Persons: Matthew Amis, Amis, Abrdn, Iain Stealey, Stealey Organizations: Bank of England, U.S, Treasury, Bank of, JPMorgan Asset Management, Federal Reserve Locations: U.K, U.S

☆ There are a lot of signs an economic slowdown is coming, says JPMorgan's David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere are a lot of signs an economic slowdown is coming, says JPMorgan's David KellyEric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald head of equity derivatives & cross Aasset, and David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action and upcoming jobs and inflation data.

Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly Eric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald, David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Eric Johnston and David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Eric Johnston and David KellyEric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald head of equity derivatives & cross Aasset, and David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action and upcoming jobs and inflation data.

Persons: Eric Johnston, David Kelly Eric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald, David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management

☆ Fed is underestimating how quickly it'll hit 2% inflation target, says JPMorgan's Gabriela Santos
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed is underestimating how quickly it'll hit 2% inflation target, says JPMorgan's Gabriela SantosGabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the rise in Treasury yields, the path for inflation, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's Gabriela Santos Gabriela Santos Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management

☆ We believe July was the Fed's last rate hike, says JPMorgan Asset Management's Priya Misra
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe believe July was the Fed's last rate hike, says JPMorgan Asset Management's Priya MisraPriya Misra, JPMorgan Asset Management fixed income portfolio manager, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's latest rate decision, why she thinks the central bank is done hiking rates, and more.

Persons: Priya Misra Priya Misra Organizations: JPMorgan, Management

☆ Shelter will be the category driving disinflation going forward: JPMorgan Asset Management’s Berro
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailShelter will be the category driving disinflation going forward: JPMorgan Asset Management’s BerroKelsey Berro, JPMorgan Asset Management fixed income portfolio manager, joins 'Squawk Box' to preview the Fed's two-day policy meeting, why she says the drama at the meeting will not come form the decision itself, but from the Fed's forecast for upcoming years, the impact on markets, and more.

Persons: Berro Kelsey Berro Organizations: JPMorgan, Management

☆ Gas prices are unusually high. Here's why you shouldn't worry
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Instead, gasoline prices are getting more expensive and are just pennies away from their highest level so far this year. Are rising oil prices another item to add to the list? How high do you think oil prices will go? When you adjust for inflation, oil isn’t that high right now. I think that we are going to see continued high prices for a lot of stuff, including gasoline, but I don’t think we’re gonna see an acceleration in prices.

Persons: David Kelly, Bell, Kelly, it’s, we’re, We’ve, — aren’t, Eva Rothenberg, Sen, Bernie Sanders, CNN’s Jake Tapper, “, ”, Jared, Kay Jewelers, Parija Kavilanz, Virginia Drosos Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Asset Management, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Federal, UAW, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford, Vermont Independent, Signet Jewelers, Signet, Diamonds, Goldman, Global Retailing Conference Locations: New York, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Libya, Ukraine, Gulf of Mexico, United States, Nile

☆ Economic data fuels risk of ECB policy mistake, JPMorgan Asset Management’s Stealey says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomic data fuels risk of ECB policy mistake, JPMorgan Asset Management’s Stealey saysIain Stealey, international chief investment officer for fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management, discusses the European Central Bank’s upcoming rate decision.

Persons: Management’s Stealey, Iain Stealey Organizations: JPMorgan, JPMorgan Asset Management, Central

☆ This week’s US inflation data is very important. Here’s why
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

All this uncertainty has led markets to lack conviction, flip-flopping as conflicting narratives around inflation rates and Fed hikes prevail. But this week’s readings — just a few days ahead of the Fed’s September policy meeting -— could give the markets direction. “Getting core inflation to 2% won’t come quickly, and upside risks remain,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. And while the Fed generally looks at core inflation, the impact of crude prices often extends into other areas of the economy. Pensions and inflation adjustments: The UAW wants a return of traditional pension payment plans and retiree health care for all UAW members.

Persons: There’s, —, Price, Jason Pride, Michael Reynolds, Glenmede, ”, Greg McBride, David Kelly, Chris Isidore, Shawn Fain, they’re, Chris, Jordan Valinsky, Instacart, “ Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, United Auto Workers, Federal, Consumer, of America, JPMorgan Asset Management, UAW, Ford, Jeep, Dodge, Chrysler, Workers, Union Locations: New York, China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, America, Instacart

☆ Shares rise, dollar drops vs yen after BOJ hint of shift in policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The yen surged after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank could end its policy of negative interest rates when the achievement of its 2% inflation target is in sight. Global shares, as reflected by the MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS), rose 0.1%, supported by a bounce in stocks in Europe, where the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) gained 0.3%. Last week, the STOXX posted its longest stretch of losses in 5-1/2 years. Economists polled by Reuters expect consumer prices to have risen by 3.6% from last year, up from July's 3.2% reading. The ECB meets on Thursday to set interest rates and markets have all but priced out any chance of a hike.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Fiona Cincotta, Marcella Chow, Scott Murdoch, Simon Cameron, Moore, Mark Heinrich, Chizu Organizations: Bank of Japan, Global, European Central Bank, Reuters, JPMorgan Asset Management, Brent, ECB, Thomson Locations: China, Europe, U.S, Asia, Sydney

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks to the media following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, July 27, 2023. "It's such a close call between the pause and the rate hike," said ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski. Traders are torn but favour an ECB pause, pricing in around a 40% chance of a hike. For many economists, one thing is clear: if the ECB has further tightening to deliver, September is likely its last chance. Even the hawks, keeping a hike on the table, say fresh ECB projections on Thursday are key to the decision.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Reinhard Cluse, Mario Centeno, Isabel Schnabel, Austria's Robert Holzmann, Iain Stealey, Philip Lane, Kaspar Hense, Yoruk Bahceli, Stefano Rebaudo, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, Central Bank, Traders, UBS, JPMorgan Asset Management, Reuters, ING, BlueBay Asset Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Italy

☆ Here are 7 ways investors can be greedy while others are fearful as China's potential property crisis unfolds, according to UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Here are the seven smartest ways to invest in Chinese markets, according to UBS. Stimulus should keep Chinese stocks from sinkingHowever, UBS believes that plenty of pain has already been priced into Chinese stocks. Naturally, China's property market turmoil has inspired comparisons to the US housing market bubble that led to the global financial crisis, but Yu is confident that such fears are overblown. "The government has the toolkit to minimize the risk of having something that is systematically disastrous in the financial markets," Yu said. If China's growth exceeds expectations, companies in the consumer discretionary and materials sectors will be among the biggest beneficiaries, according to UBS.

Persons: David Kelly, Xingchen Yu, Solita Marcelli, Yu, there's Organizations: US, UBS, Asset Management Locations: China, Shanghai, People's Republic, Swiss, Beijing, Taiwan

☆ 'We're one gust of wind away from recession': A JPMorgan global strategy chief shares why the economy is still at risk despite rising optimism — and 3 places he's bullish on now
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

"We're one gust of wind away from recession," Kelly said. While he hasn't seen any cracks in that industry recently, he's wary of dismissing that as a risk, especially if interest rates climb further. The smartest investments to make now are in Europe, Japan, and emerging markets excluding China, Kelly said. But emerging markets are where many of the most tantalizing opportunities are, in Kelly's opinion. An exception within emerging markets is China.

Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, Kelly, David Kelly, Kelly inched, It's, hasn't, homebuilding, it's, he's Organizations: Asset Management, Fed, Federal, JPMorgan Asset Management, 19.9x, Japan's Nikkei Locations: Europe, Japan, China

☆ The risk-reward in fixed income is looking really attractive, says JPMorgan's Gabriela Santos
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe risk-reward in fixed income is looking really attractive, says JPMorgan's Gabriela SantosGabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, earnings season, fixed income opportunities for investors, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's Gabriela Santos Gabriela Santos Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management

☆ We'll be at 2% inflation by the end of next year, says JPMorgan's David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe'll be at 2% inflation by the end of next year, says JPMorgan's David KellyDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the more significant risk for the Federal Reserve, what investors should assume about the economy, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Federal Reserve

☆ The goal for Fed Chair Powell in Jackson Hole is to 'not rock the boat', says Citi's Veronica Clark
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe goal for Fed Chair Powell in Jackson Hole is to 'not rock the boat', says Citi's Veronica ClarkVeronica Clark, Citi economist, and Jack Caffrey, JPMorgan Asset Management equity portfolio manager, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting, what's at stake for markets and the economy, latest market trends, and more.

Persons: Powell, Citi's Veronica Clark Veronica Clark, Jack Caffrey, Jackson, what's Organizations: Fed, Citi, JPMorgan Asset Management Locations: Jackson

☆ Being underweight stocks would be a 'mistake' if a recession is avoided: JPMorgan's Phil Camporeale
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBeing underweight stocks would be a 'mistake' if a recession is avoided: JPMorgan's Phil CamporealePhil Camporeale, JPMorgan Asset Management portfolio manager and Matt McIlwain, Madrona Venture Group managing director, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action, Big Tech earnings, what to expect from the Fed at Jackson Hole and more.

Persons: Phil Camporeale Phil Camporeale, Matt McIlwain, Jackson Organizations: JPMorgan, Management, Madrona Venture Group, Big Tech, Fed

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