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The fed funds rate currently stands in the 4.25%-4.50% range. Plenty of investors believe the Fed will stick to its guns, even if the economy wobbles. The Fed's economic projections showed rates dropping to 4.1% in 2024, higher than estimated three months ago. She is expecting the gyrations that rocked bonds this year to continue, driven in part by investors second-guessing the Fed's commitment to keeping monetary policy tight. "We have a generation of traders that has never seen the Fed not bail it out when push comes to shove."

☆ U.S. dollar likely to remain strong in 2023 amid recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Dec 8 (Reuters) - A breathtaking surge in the U.S. dollar trampled foreign currencies, gouged corporate profits and gave investors one of the year’s few winning trades. Investors flocked to the dollar — a popular destination during uncertain times — to shelter from market volatility spurred by surging global inflation, spiking energy prices and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A stronger dollar makes U.S. exporters' products less competitive abroad while hurting U.S. multinationals that need to exchange their earnings into dollars. REUTERS/Lee Jae-Won/File PhotoNike (NKE.N), IBM (IBM.N) and Meta Platforms (META.O) were among the broad range of companies that warned of a hit from a stronger dollar this year. Nearly 80% of strategists polled by Reuters said there was little scope for dollar upside based on monetary policy.

☆ Recession worries could support dollar after monstrous 2022 rally
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A stronger dollar makes U.S. exporters' products less competitive abroad while hurting U.S. multinationals that need to exchange their earnings into dollars. Nike (NKE.N), IBM (IBM.N) and Meta Platforms (META.O) were among the broad range of companies that warned of a hit from a stronger dollar this year. The dollar's rally shaved about 8% from S&P earnings in 2022, according to Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. Whether the dollar's decline continues may depend on the Fed's ability to contain inflation enough to eventually ease monetary policy. Nearly 80% of strategists polled by Reuters said there was little scope for dollar upside based on monetary policy.

☆ Analysis: Investors look to emerging markets as planets align for end of dollar bull market
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Dec 6 (Reuters) - As the U.S. dollar tumbles from multi-decade highs, some investors are betting emerging market currencies will be big winners from a sustained reversal in the greenback. Signs of a broader turn in dollar sentiment are visible in the buck’s 8% decline against a basket of developed market currencies from its September highs. "The planets are lining up for a dollar bear market," said Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and currency strategy at Amundi US. Emerging market currencies have outperformed their developed market counterparts this year, with MSCI's index of emerging market currencies down 5% year-to-date, while the dollar's G10 peers have lost nearly twice as much. Conversely, tightening by central banks around the world also risks sparking a global recession, a scenario some believe could hurt emerging market currencies and help the dollar.

The S&P 500 is down 14.4% year-to-date. U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in October, supporting the view that inflation was ebbing. Further ahead, some of Wall Street’s biggest banks are now forecasting that the Fed's monetary policy tightening will bring on a recession next year. In options markets, traders appear more preoccupied with not missing out on more gains in stocks than guarding against future declines. The one-month moving average of daily trading in bearish put contracts against bullish calls on the S&P 500 index-tracking SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust's options is at its lowest since January 2022, according to Trade Alert data.

☆ Take Five: Everything to play for
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Markets are hopeful the Federal Reserve will soon slow the pace of its aggressive rate hikes. The U.S. economy likely created 200,000 new jobs, a Reuters poll of economists forecasts found, in what would be the smallest gain since December 2020. Manufacturing indicators, mainly PMIs, due next week might attest to the weakness already seen across the economy. Inflation in the euro zone was 10.6% in October, more than five times the European Central Bank's 2% target. Indeed, the Fed may be getting ready to slow the pace of its rate hikes, but the ECB is not there yet.

☆ Analysis: Political gridlock may help U.S. stocks but inflation still in driver's seat
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A split government "makes major policy changes unlikely, and that stability in policy tends to be reassuring for investors." Still, macroeconomic concerns and monetary policy have driven markets all year, and investors believe that trend is unlikely to change anytime soon. "Inflation matters more than anything else right now," said Michael Antonelli, managing director and market strategist at Baird. In the last five instances when the November-December period occurred in a bear market, the S&P 500 logged an average two-month decline of 2.2%. If you look at bear markets there is no evidence of seasonality at the end of the year," Antonelli said.

The S&P is 10.6% above its Oct. 12 closing low for 2022, though still down 17% for the year. "If you're sitting in cash and the market rallies, you might think you were greedy waiting for a bigger discount." Institutional investors' exposure to stocks was low going into Thursday's inflation report. Last month's fund manager survey from BofA Global Research showed investors' cash levels at their highest since April 2001. Lewis said he had not seen so-called real money – a term for mutual funds, pension funds and other non-leveraged market investors – participating in Thursday's rally, though he saw no evidence of selling from that cohort, either.

☆ Dollar on track for biggest plunge since 2015 as investors exit crowded positions
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. The scope of the dollar's moves against many currencies on Thursday has been breathtaking, as investors pull back from what has been seen as an extremely crowded trade in foreign exchange markets. Against a basket of currencies , the dollar was off about 1.9%, on pace for its worst day in nearly seven years. The reversal of these trades could fuel further dollar weakness, analysts said, if further signs of economic softening lead investors to bet on a less hawkish Fed. Daniel Wood, portfolio manager on the emerging markets debt team at William Blair, has increased bets on emerging market currencies rising against the dollar.

That could support a rally in 10-year Treasury bonds and help stocks extend their recent gains, they said. "I think the markets are rallying at the prospect of gridlock," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital in Chicago. Historically, stocks have tended to do better under a split government when a Democrat is in the White House, with investors attributing some of that performance to political gridlock that prevents major policy changes. The benchmark index has risen about 5% over the last month, cutting its year-to-date decline to about 20%. With U.S. equity options market positioned for relative calm, a surprisingly strong showing by Democrats could upend markets.

☆ Democratic upset in U.S. midterms could roil markets, options mavens say
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Nov 8 (Reuters) - An unexpected result in Tuesday’s U.S. midterm election could roil markets positioned for relative calm, options strategists said. Control of the U.S. Congress is at stake in Tuesday's midterms, with Republicans favored by polls and betting markets to win control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate. At the individual stock level, certain names have the potential for higher election-related volatility, strategists at Goldman Sachs said in a note earlier this month. Meanwhile, shares of tobacco company Philip Morris International Inc (PM.N) could be volatile around regulatory restrictions, Goldman’s analysts wrote. Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed in New York Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Matthew LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Investors brace for government gridlock as Republicans seen gaining in U.S. midterms
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Republicans are favored to win control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate, polls and betting markets show, though there are still hours left to vote. "I think the markets are rallying at the prospect of gridlock," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital in Chicago. "Fiscal spending has created a challenge for central banks worldwide. The S&P 500 (.SPX), which finished up 0.6% on the day, has risen about 5% over the last month. Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Inflation data, midterm elections loom for struggling U.S. stock rally
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Nov 4 (Reuters) - A sputtering U.S. stock rally faces a double-dose of potentially market moving events next week: U.S. midterm elections and inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Consumer price data has driven huge market moves this year, as surging inflation forced investors to ramp up expectations for Fed rate hikes. A stronger-than-expected reading on Nov. 10 would likely bolster the case for the Fed to continue. "If we get lower inflation reading then you could get a relief rally based on that data,” said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. "The results of the midterm will give greater visibility and help draw investor confidence higher," he said.

☆ Traders scramble for protection after Fed spooks markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The index is down about 3% since Tuesday's close and is down around 22% so far in 2022. On Thursday afternoon, with the S&P 500 index-tracking SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust's (SPY.P) shares down 0.6% to $372.56, the most heavily traded SPY contracts were those that would guard against the ETF's shares slipping below $370 by Friday. SPY puts expiring at the end of next week, struck at the $350 mark, just above the ETF's mid-October intra-day low of $348.11, were the fourth most actively traded SPY options on Thursday. "Recent 'Fed meeting volatility' has not necessarily been confined to the Fed day itself," Christopher Jacobson, a strategist at Susquehanna Financial Group, said in a note. "Over the six prior Fed meetings year-to-date, the SPY has seen an average move of +/- 2.8% from the close on Wednesday (Fed day) to Friday's close," he said.

☆ Analysis: With Fed in view, dollar rally dented but not quite done, investors say
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A less hawkish-than-expected message from the Fed at Wednesday’s monetary policy meeting, however, could exacerbate the currency's recent decline. That has made investors like Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and currency strategy at Amundi US, wary of calling an end to the dollar rally. Some central banks have already delivered smaller than expected rate increases in recent weeks, including the Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of Australia. "If the Fed pulls back that will allow (other central banks) to pull back as well," said UBS's Draho, who expects more dollar strength in coming months. Still, with the dollar near a 20-year high, further dollar gains are likely to be accompanied by increased volatility, analysts said.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Hopeful U.S. stock rally set for date with Federal Reserve reality
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 14, 2022. Meanwhile, cash-heavy investors afraid of missing out on a sustained rally have contributed to the bullish move, market participants said. More than 150 S&P 500 companies are due to report quarterly results next week, including Eli Lilly (LLY.N), ConocoPhillips (COP.N) and Qualcomm (QCOM.O). Investors will also closely watch next Friday's monthly jobs report for signs of whether the Fed's actions have tempered the labor market. "The market is thinking good things," said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco.

Hopes have risen that the 20% S&P 500 plunge this year had cleared the decks by dragging the aggregate price/earnings ratio back below long-term averages. "In this environment we think bonds are more attractive relative to stocks on a risk-adjusted basis. chartMIND THE GAPTake the difference between the S&P 500 earnings yield and nominal 10-year Treasury yield. The current dividend yield - total annual dividends divided by the value of the index - is around 1.75%, while the 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.23%. As of Monday Oct. 24, the S&P 500 was down 20% year-to-date and the ICE BofA aggregate Treasuries index was down 15.6%.

Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsAmong factors fueling the swings is a flood of options trades, many of them short-term in nature. A surge in options trading tends to boost hedging by market makers – typically large banks or financial institutions that facilitate the trades and need to position in equity futures to reduce their risk from unexpected market moves. Their furious buying and selling can heighten short-term swings in stocks, adding to broader volatility, market participants said. LOW POSITIONINGMeanwhile, many so-called "real money" investors such as pension funds and mutual funds have cut their stock allocations to the bone after months of equity volatility, another factor fueling stock swings. At the same time, under-positioned investors have recently tended to jump aboard stock rallies, further extending the moves, market participants said.

☆ Analysis: As U.S. stocks rip higher, investors hunt for signs of market bottom
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The current gain – which has seen the S&P 500 bounce about 6.5% last week's fresh intraday low for 2022 – comes on the heels of several rebounds throughout the year that eventually crumbled. However, the index has not been above that level since March even as the S&P 500 continued making new lows. The put/call ratio is yet to approach a 10-day average of at least 1.2 that has historically indicated that "you are more in the ballpark of panic and fear and close to a market low," he said. The current bear market has also been less severe than many past downturns. The S&P 500 slid as much as 25.4% this year, while bear markets since 1929 have seen an average decline of 35%, according to BofA.

☆ Dollar edges up but gains in check as risk appetite rebounds
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Yesterday's risk-on vibe looks to be continuing into today's session," said Michael Brown, head of market intelligence at payments firm Caxton in London. U.S. stock market gains were also driven by strong corporate earnings from Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N). Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was 0.05% higher at 112.13, after having earlier slipped to a near two-week low of 111.76. The risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar rose about 0.71% to $0.5676, taking support from hotter-than-expected consumer inflation data which bolstered bets for further rate hikes. Bitcoin was 0.4% lower at $19,440.17, clinging close to the levels it has traded at for the last four weeks.

☆ Currency hit to N. American companies seen 'bad' after rough Q2 -report
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar interest rates in order to cool inflation. The collective exchange rate hit, including on companies in the United States, Canada and Mexico, was a whopping $34.25 billion in the second quarter of this year. That compares with a $14.66 billion negative effect in the first quarter of 2022, Kyriba said in its report. S&P 500 (.SPX) companies have just begun reporting results on the third quarter of 2022, with analysts' estimates for year-over-year earnings on the quarter down sharply since July 1, based on IBES data from Refinitiv. A stronger dollar makes U.S. exporters' products less competitive abroad while hurting U.S. multinationals that need to exchange their earnings into dollars.

"There will be impacts, there’s correlations ... some market volatility, and then how it weighs in the global growth picture," said Paul Malloy, head of municipals at Vanguard. The wild swings in the pound have ricocheted across currency markets, where volatility was already climbing. According to the widely watched Deutsche Bank Currency Volatility Index , volatility across currencies on Wednesday hit its highest level since the March 2020 COVID-19- induced market meltdown, jumping more than 20% from levels last week. Closely followed indicators of financial stress remain contained. U.S. stock market volatility as measured by the "fear index," the VIX (.VIX), has also climbed in recent days but remains below its 2022 highs.

☆ Options activity hints U.S. stock market has not reached bottom- Barclays
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Trading in put contracts - typically used to protect against market losses - has surged, with a record 33.93 million put contracts changing hands on Friday alone. "Contrary to popular belief, equity investors did not hastily pile into protection buying," Barclays equity derivatives strategist Stefano Pascale said in a note on Tuesday. But while the trading activity suggests there is still fear in the market, it has not risen to levels associated with past market bottoms. "We don't see evidence of record equity protection buying when selling activity is also properly accounted for," Pascale said. For instance, in options on ETFs, puts selling reached a four-year record, according a Barclays analysis, signaling peak fear is still distant.

British Pound Sterling and U.S. Dollar notes are seen in this June 22, 2017 illustration photo. Deutsche Bank's Currency Volatility Index – the historical volatility index of the major G7 currencies - jumped to a two-and-a-half year high of 13.55 on Monday. While Sterling and the yen have fared extremely poorly against the dollar, the greenback's meteoric rise has spared no major currency. Reuters GraphicsMoves have surprised long-time currency traders and investors. "Our team is working around the clock from multiple global locations," said Kamboj, adding he is not trading sterling because the pound's direction now depends entirely on how the Bank of England reacts.

☆ Analysis: Crowd of dollar bulls raises risk of violent pullback
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Some investors worry the dollar trade has become excessively crowded, raising the risk of a sharp unwind if the case for owning the currency changes and investors try to exit their positions all at once. International Monetary Market speculators held a net long U.S. dollar position of $10.23 billion for the week ended Sept. 20. Barring a brief period of peak pandemic-related uncertainty, broad net options positioning data going back to 2014 shows U.S. dollar long positions are the most stretched ever, according to Morgan Stanley. While a hotter-than-expected u.s. inflation report in August dashed those hopes and sent the dollar higher, the dangers stemming from the crowded dollar trade have only grown, investors said. But with the dollar scaling new multi-decade highs, positioning for a pullback can be painful.

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