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☆ A Fed shift from quantitative tightening to 'tinkering' will emerge as a new bull factor for the stock market in 2023, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A Fed shift away from quantitative tightening could be the next bull factor for stocks in 2023, according to Bank of America. The Fed has started to reduce its near $9 trillion balance sheet at a clip of about $95 billion per month. That's because central banks are "petrified of market consequences of liquidity withdrawal," BofA's investment strategist Michael Hartnett said. Fear of deeper declines materializing in equity and fixed income markets is what could ultimately spark a Fed shift away from quantitative tightening and towards quantitative "tinkering," Hartnett said. Additionally, the European central bank is "considering but not yet committing to even passive quantitative tightening," Hartnett said.

☆ Investors' cash pile is the largest in 21 years. Here's what that means and why it could signal a rally is on the way in 2023.
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There's a massive amount of cash on the sidelines right now as markets suffer through extreme bouts of volatility and investors remain skittish. Investors' cash pile is the largest since April 2001. Which bring us to the next part of BofA's prediction — that this cash pile will fuel a rally in 2023. I-Bonds have gained immense popularity this year given deeply negative stock market returns and high inflation. Just three weeks away, the elections will still likely have implications for areas of the stock market.

☆ The 60/40 portfolio has been suffering all year, but there are opportunities for long-term investors
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The 60/40 strategy, known as a balanced portfolio, has been hit by rising bond yields — which means falling fixed income prices, as well as a sinking stock market. "The future is brighter for the 60/40," said Omar Aguilar, CEO and chief investment officer of Schwab Asset Management. "The correlation will come back to the normal levels, or the historical levels that you normally have between equities and fixed income," Aguilar said. Schwab's Aguilar advises against chasing yields in fixed income, but instead maintaining a balanced approach between credit and duration. In fixed income, the firm currently has a bond duration of four years, down from its previous seven-year duration.

☆ Investors are nearing capitulation and setting up for 'another bear rally,' BofA survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

For the third prong of BofA's capitulation test, the policy outlook also is getting closer, with respondents seeing interest rate cuts and lower bond yields ahead. However, investors are much closer to peak-fear capitulation when it comes to the economy and market outlook. A net 72% of survey respondents see global growth declining over the next year, just off the all-time low. However, he also noted that the rising pessimism has still been met with positive flows to equity funds, "suggesting no sign yet of capitulation from retail/institutional investors." The survey indicated the most crowded trade to be long the U.S. dollar, followed by short U.S. stocks and long ESG assets.

☆ Wall Street is debating whether the bear market still has legs
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Jason Ma | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

So far, results from the big Wall Street banks have been mixed, with JPMorgan and Citigroup beating but Morgan Stanley falling short of forecasts. He told CNBC on Friday that Thursday's wild reversal wasn't just a bear market rally and could be the start of a new upswing. "We are, in my opinion, coming to the end of this bear market," Scaramucci told CNBC on Friday. Is the stock market poised for a sustainable uptrend or still teasing with bear market rallies? But the stock market isn't out of the woods yet as there could be more pain in the short-term.

☆ A 26-year market vet breaks down why investing legend Jeremy Grantham is correct to compare the current market to the 2000 and 2008 'superbubbles' — and warns stocks will fall another 20%
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There's little reason for optimism in today's market, Lance Roberts laments. Just look at the barrage of headwinds facing stocks right now, the RIA Advisors CIO said in an October 10 commentary. At the start of this year, investing legend and founder of GMO Jeremy Grantham, said stocks were in their fourth superbubble in the last century given that market valuations had veered from historical norms so drastically. On Friday, Roberts told Insider that he agrees with Grantham's assessments, and that he sees the S&P 500 dropping to around 2,900. One of Wall Street's most bullish strategists this year, BMO's Brian Belski, cut his 2022 price target on the S&P 500 again on Friday to 4,200.

☆ Stocks have further to fall after the market's 'bear hug' rally as the Fed isn't ready to pivot from its aggressive rate policy, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Thursday rally in US stocks was a "bear hug" and not yet the start of a sustainable upswing in equities, Bank of America said Friday. The firm said the rally was ignited in a market that's oversold and where investors are holding high levels of cash. The "Big Low" in the market is coming but there hasn't been enough macro/market pain yet, said BofA's chief US strategist Michael Hartnett. Bank of AmericaLooking forward, Hartnett still sees a "Big Low" coming in markets — but he's still waiting for signs of panic from the Fed. He points specifically to the labor market and manufacturing data, which isn't yet weak enough for the Fed to "fold.

☆ U.S. stock market is taking hits, but we’re still doing better than the rest of the world
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-07 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The U.S. stock market may be down 21% this year, but it's far better than most of the rest of the world. The U.S. stock market, which has been outperforming most other markets for a long time, is continuing to increase its market share of global equities. That 66%, Hartnett says, is an all-time high. Hartnett notes that Tesla's market cap, at roughly $750 billion, is now the same as the entire European banking sector. U.S. stock market: king of the hill (by market capitalization) U.S.: 60.3% Japan 5.4% China 4.1% UK 3.9% Canada 3.2% France 2.7% Switzerland 2.5% Australia 1.9% Germany 1.9% Taiwan 1.6% Other 12.2%

☆ Bonds are in the midst of the worst crash since 1949, and its set to unravel some of the market's most crowded trades, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-24 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The worst bond market decline since 1949 is set to disrupt the stock market, according to Bank of America. The bank said soaring interest rates will unwind the most crowded trades in the stock market, including long US tech. "Bond crash in recent weeks means highs in credit spreads, lows in stocks are not yet in," BofA said. Bonds are experiencing their worst decline since 1949 as interest rates soar amid a global central bank campaign to fight inflation. "Bond crash in recent weeks means highs in credit spreads, lows in stocks are not yet in," BofA's Michael Hartnett said.

☆ Bond market plunge means the low for stocks is not in yet, Bank of America's Hartnett says
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Pressure in the bond market is also exacting a toll on stocks, which look likely to go still lower from here, according to Bank of America's top strategist. Bank of America's main sentiment indicator is "deeply bearish," Hartnett wrote, though that still hasn't translated into a contrarian buying point. That would translate into respective S & P 500 losses from Thursday's close of 4.2%, 12.2% and 20.2%. While central banks are tightening, fiscal authorities in the U.S., UK and elsewhere are continuing to provide stimulus , offsetting the inflation-fighting benefits of higher rates. "Investors want policy coordination & policy credibility, and until they get it are likely to press shorts," Hartnett said.

☆ Hedge funds ramp up market bets as volatility brings the asset class back into favor
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on September 21, 2022 in New York City. The extreme market volatility is not causing hedge funds to back down. In other words, they are putting money to work in a big way to capitalize on this market volatility for clients, likely mostly from the short side. This speaks to hedge fund strategies," said Mark Haefele, global wealth management CIO at UBS. "Hedge funds have been a rare bright spot this year, with some strategies, like macro, performing particularly well."

☆ Wall St Week Ahead 'Uncharted' sell-off in U.S. stocks has investors wondering when the pain stops
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A specialist trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidNEW YORK, Sept 23 (Reuters) - A week of heavy selling has brought U.S. stocks and bonds to fresh bear market lows, with many investors bracing for more pain ahead. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, cut its year-end target for the S&P 500 by 16% to 3,600 points from 4,300 points. Kevin Gordon, senior investment research manager at Charles Schwab, believes there is more downside ahead because central banks are tightening monetary policy into a global economy that already appears to be weakening. A recession would likely push the S&P 500 to trade between 3,000 and 3,500 in 2023, Jolly said.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Investors wonder when vicious sell-off in U.S. stocks will end
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 is down more than 22% this year. If the S&P 500 closes below the mid-June low in the days ahead, that may prompt another wave of aggressive selling, Stovall said. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, cut its year-end target for the S&P 500 by 16% to 3,600 points from 4,300 points. "The increased probability of breaking the June S&P 500 price low may be what it takes to invoke even deeper fear. A recession would likely push the S&P 500 to trade between 3,000 and 3,500 in 2023, Jolly said.

☆ Traders worry there are more earnings warnings like FedEx's about to come out
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Michael Hartnett at Bank of America said that for the S & P 500, "we say nibble at SPX 3600, bite at 3300, gorge at 3000." The S & P 500 closed Friday at 3,873, and the June 16 bottom was 3,666, so 3,300 and 3,000 are a ways away. What about 3,000, the level Hartnett suggested investors should "gorge" on the S & P 500? A much lower multiple with a contraction in earnings: That is what you call a recessionary earnings picture. Bottom line: Lower mortgage rates definitely have been a factor in higher home prices for some time.

☆ The best investing stories of July: How to win the next phase of COVID-19 — 'hidden' high-upside businesses — record-cheap value stocks
▼ + stars: | 2020-08-04 | by ( Business Insider | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Many of them are preparing for the next phase of life in the stock market — one characterized by stimulus uncertainty and a US economic recovery that's lagging the rest of the world. He foresees a so-called squeeze higher for value stocks, and recommends that investors position their portfolios to profit from a rotation away from popular growth names. Look no further:Chart of the weekJPMorganThe JPMorgan chart above — compiled by the firm's quant guru, Marko Kolanovic — shows that value stocks are now trading at a record cheapness relative to growth. Kolanovic's takeaway from this trend is that value stocks are susceptible to a squeeze higher, and investors should rightly position their portfolios ahead of time. — Marko Kolanovic, global head of macro quantitative and derivatives research at JPMorgan, on why he sees a value-stock rally in the cards

☆ The definitive guide to getting started in real-estate investing
▼ + stars: | 2020-07-21 | by ( Business Insider | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

But have you ever considered real-estate investing? If you aren't yet a subscriber to Investing Insider, you can sign up here. Our research culminated in a definitive guide to getting into real-estate investing. Among Mittal's funds is the StocksPlus Long Duration Fund, which consistently beats 99% of peers. — Bill Miller, the founder of Miller Value Partners, whose record-setting fund trounced the market for 15 consecutive years

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