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☆ These 2 key metrics will signal whether small, unloved stocks will continue to beat the market, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The firm is looking at specific levels for the 10-year Treasury yield and manufacturing PMI. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. New research from Bank of America outlined two specific criteria that could serve as signals the rally will continue. AdvertisementMeanwhile, manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in June. "The Manufacturing economy is in the second longest downturn in history with 21 months without two straight months of 50+ PMI.

Persons: —, SPW, Russell, Tom Lee Organizations: of America, PMI, Service, Bank of America, Treasury, 6.3ppt, Bank of America Global Research, Federal Reserve, Barclays Locations: outperformance

☆ US sanctions have tanked Russian semi-chip imports from China and Hong Kong, new data shows
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Illicit Russian semiconductor imports have fallen this year, Reuters reported. So-called transshipments bypass US sanctions by first exporting illicit goods to an secondary destination. Transshipments through Hong Kong fell 28%, and 19% through mainland China, Commerce Department data shows. AdvertisementChinese trade flows of restricted technology into Russia have wavered this year, with semiconductor imports losing ground amid US sanctions, Reuters reported. Transshipments of advanced components through mainland China fell 19% between January and May, while shipments through Hong Kong dropped 28%, the outlet said.

Persons: — Organizations: Reuters, Commerce Department, Service, The Commerce Department, Business Locations: Hong Kong, China, Russia

☆ Ether ETFs are coming. Here's how Wall Street sees the funds impacting the world's 2nd-biggest crypto
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-21 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Spot ether ETFs could launch as soon as July 22, reports say. Wall Street has issued a range of outlooks on how the world's second-largest cryptocurrency will move once the ETFs launch. The bank expects these funds to drive $15 billion to $45 billion worth of ether inflows in a 12-month window. Bulls derived their confidence from how bitcoin behaved after its spot ETFs launch in January. They noted bitcoin's first-mover advantage and stressed that the ether token offers functionality that wouldn't be accessible through the ETFs, thus limiting demand.

Persons: —, bitcoin, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, CoinDesk, Rachel Lin, Alex Kuptsikevich Organizations: Street, Service, Securities and Exchange Commission, Chartered, Bulls, JPMorgan, Citi, Steno, Reuters, Galaxy Digital, ETH, Business

☆ Don't bet on the stock-market rotation as small-caps historically suffer when rates come down, Barclays says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Small-caps historically decline before and after the first interest rate cut, Barclays reported. This argues against the growing narrative that the easing cycle will boost small-caps, the bank said. AdvertisementBarclays ResearchTheir finding opposes many prevailing viewpoints on Wall Street, where rising bets of lower interest rates have sent investors piling into the small-cap trade. In part, falling interest rates might help ease debt burdens, but they can also signal a cooling economy — which favors large-cap exposure. Market veteran Ed Yardeni wrote this week that the small-caps trade has no legs, given the sector's lackluster forward earnings, revenue, and profit margins.

Persons: —, Venu Krishna, Russell, June's, Tom Lee, Ed Yardeni, Liz Young Thomas Organizations: Barclays, Service, NASDAQ, Federal

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rise as tech tries to bounce back after chip rout
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Weekly jobless claims were higher than expected, boosting rate cut hopes. AdvertisementThe stock market was looking to stage a rebound after a plummet in semiconductor stocks led to a losing session on Wednesday. The chip cohort's tumble came amid reports that the Biden administration would levy fresh restrictions on chip sales to China. The latest jobless claims gave investors new reason to bet on interest rate cuts, as Thursday's report showed claims rose to their highest level in close to a year. Initial jobless claims rose to 243,000 through the week ending July 13, above estimates for 229,000.

Persons: Stocks, —, Biden, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Service, Financial, Labor Locations: China

☆ Wall Street sees this opaque corner of financial markets as the likeliest source of a credit crisis, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewBank of America's latest Global Fund Managers survey found that shadow banking has surpassed commercial real estate as the likeliest culprit of a future credit event. In June's survey, commercial real estate held the top spot. Related storiesMeanwhile, BofA's survey indicates that fund managers are still keeping their eyes on commercial real estate, a sector that has wobbled under the weight of high interest rates. Between tighter monetary policy and a significant pullback in office demand, worry has mounted regarding whether commercial real estate entities can pay off their debt.

Persons: —, Jamie Dimon, BofA Organizations: Service, America's, Global Fund, Business, Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, JPMorgan Locations: H2'24

☆ PIMCO economist says fears of a US debt crisis are overblown - for now
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

PIMCO economist Peder Beck-Friis says that high US debt levels do not pose an immediate threat. Before that happens, volatility will rise in financial markets and the macro economy, he noted. AdvertisementInvestors shouldn't fear US debt crisis just yet, as the situation is more benign than it appears, PIMCO econmist Peder Beck-Friis wrote on Thursday. In an op-ed in The Financial Times, Beck-Friis wrote that investors will need to prepare for higher instability before policymakers treat the debt seriously. Like many other big-name market observers, he argued that the aggressive rise in the US debt will eventually hit unsustainable levels.

Persons: Peder Beck, Friis, —, PIMCO econmist Peder Beck, Beck, Bill Gross, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton Organizations: Financial Times, Service, Financial, US Locations: Washington, Europe

☆ Stock market today: Dow falls 533 points as tech rout spreads to the broader market
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Major stock indexes were down sharply for a second day on Thursday. A mega-cap retreat expanded into a broader rout, and the S&P 500 fell over 1%. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS indexes declined sharply for a second session this week, as the plunge in leading tech stocks broadened out to the rest of the market.

Persons: —, Russell Organizations: Service, Google, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Federal Locations: China, Here's

☆ Jamie Dimon thinks the Fed should wait longer to cut interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Jamie Dimon says the Federal Reserve shouldn't be in a rush to cut interest rates. He told Swiss newspaper NZZ that several factors could cause inflation to rebound. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe market is laying bets that the Federal Reserve is on the cusp on cutting interest rates, but Jamie Dimon thinks the central bank is at risk of moving too soon. The JPMorgan chief told Swiss newspaper NZZ that inflation might not settle down for good, even though it has been moving steadily lower since peaking in the summer of 2022.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, he's, —, Dimon Organizations: Federal Reserve, Swiss, Service, Federal, JPMorgan, Fed, Business

☆ The US housing is turning more buyer-friendly as sellers step up price cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Nearly a quarter of homes on the market saw price cuts in June, Zillow says. For this time of the year, that's the highest rate since 2018. High costs and rising inventory are leading to easing competition, the real estate firm said. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe US housing market looks to be regaining some balance, with price cuts helping buyers find their footing, Zillow said.

Persons: Zillow, —, Sellers Organizations: Service, Business

☆ Why loosening sanctions would put more pressure on Russia, according to a think tank
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The West could spur Russian inflation by easing sanctions on capital flows, Sergey Aleksashenko says. "Make it easier to depress the value of the ruble, make imports more expensive, and put pressure on Russian bank balance sheets." Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In a collection of policy briefs the think tank put out this month, author Sergey Aleksashenko argued that the West should ease restrictions on Russian capital outflows.

Persons: Sergey Aleksashenko, — Organizations: Service, Kremlin, Brookings, outflows, Business Locations: depreciating, Russian, Russia

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rise as traders assess earnings and retail sales beat estimates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Bank of America earnings topped estimates, and shares rose early Tuesday. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks climbed higher as fresh data indicated that consumers were still spending. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.4% against estimates of a 0.1% increase. In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield slid moderately, after comments dovish were made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Persons: —, Robert Frick, dovish, Jerome Powell Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Navy Federal Credit Union, Bloomberg, Treasury, Federal

☆ Slamming China with tariffs is a mistake, and the US can do one big thing to support key industries, Yale economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The US is taking an unnecessarily tough stance on China, Stephen Roach said. The Yale professor told the Odd Lots podcast that reducing the deficit is a better way to improve the US economy. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe US needs to readjust its approach to China or risk deep and unnecessary fallout between the world's two biggest economies, Yale economist Stephen Roach said. The former Morgan Stanley China chairman blasted each country's mounting antagonism on Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast, sharing dim views on rising trade barriers.

Persons: Stephen Roach, Roach, —, Morgan Stanley, Donald Trump, Joe Biden Organizations: Yale, Service, Beijing, Business Locations: China

☆ Looser regulation would allow business-led growth to relieve the 'massive' deficit burden, BlackRock chief Larry Fink says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US needs to ease business regulation to escape rising deficit trend, Larry Fink said. He told CNBC that Washington's "massive, massive spends" are unaffordable. AdvertisementThe US can't hope to escape its rising debt problem if the private sector is overburdened by regulatory red tape, Larry Fink said on CNBC. "And we're going to be really putting on the backs of our children, our grandchildren, a real burden of these massive, massive spends that we can't afford." With the election less than four months away, neither candidate has so far offered a solution to the rising deficit, and observers see both candidates adding to it over the next four years.

Persons: Larry Fink, —, Fink, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Biden, Trump Organizations: CNBC, Service, BlackRock, Treasury Department, Congressional, Trump, House

☆ The Fed shouldn't cut rates at all this year as the US is poised for a 2nd half rebound, macro strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed shouldn't cut interest rates at all this year, strategist Jim Bianco said. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve risks prematurely cutting interest rates right as the US economy is poised to reaccelerate, Jim Bianco told CNBC. Related storiesBacking the notion are promising declines in inflation and a cooling of the labor market. AdvertisementFed fund futures indicate that three 25-basis point interest rate cuts could come this year, starting in September. Interest rates will remain pressured by today's high level of government spending and continued consumer strength.

Persons: Jim Bianco, —, there'll, Brian Rose, Bianco, they're, " Bianco, Charles Schwab, Schwab Organizations: Service, Reserve, CNBC, Bianco Research, Fed, UBS, ISM Services

☆ Trump's trade and tax policies are the new hot-button topic dividing economists and market experts
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Experts hold drastically different views, creating a new hot-button topic that will continue to be debated up until the election in November. The camp staunchly opposed to Trump's policiesThe base argument against Trump's fiscal platform is that tariffs are, by nature, inflationary. AdvertisementIn a recent op-ed for the Financial Times, he cited the "benign" impact Trump's first-term tariffs had on the US economy. Looking ahead to a new term, Yardeni thinks Trump's most extreme pursuits will likely be watered down by Congress. AdvertisementRepublican donor Kyle Bass — who serves as the chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management — has taken a different tact in his support of Trump's fiscal agenda.

Persons: —, Donald Trump, Trump's, Trump, he's, David Kelly, Larry Summers, Paul Krugman, Goldman Sachs, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Steve Eisman, Kyle Bass —, Hayman Capital Management —, Joseph Stiglitz, Biden Organizations: Service, Donald Trump White House, Business, Trump, House Republicans, Foundation, New York Times, Peterson Institute, Yardeni Research, Financial Times, Congress, CNBC, Hayman Capital Management, Oxford Economics Locations: China, It's

☆ How a Trump 2.0 presidency could threaten dollar dominance, according to a think tank
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

If elected, Donald Trump has promised to maintain the dollar as the world's reserve currency. But his policies risk deteriorating faith in the greenback, according to one think tank. At number 13, the former president pledged to keep the US dollar in place as the world's main reserve currency. But a second Trump term might actually erode greenback's dominant role, wrote Mark Sobel, US chair of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. During his first term, Trump threatened to leave NATO and took the US out of key agreements, such as the Iran nuclear deal, Paris Climate Accord and Trans-Pacific Partnership, Sobel wrote.

Persons: Donald Trump, OMFIF, —, Donald Trump's, Mark Sobel, Sobel, Trump, Biden Organizations: Service, Republican National, Trump, Monetary, Financial, Treasury, Social Security, NATO, Paris Climate Accord, Pacific Partnership Locations: Iran, Paris

☆ Short-sellers are more important than ever for keeping fraud out of the market, Carson Block says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Carson Block told Bloomberg TV that the stock market needs short sellers "more than ever." AdvertisementThe market needs to embrace short sellers if it wants to free itself of fraud, Carson Block told Bloomberg TV. He added: "The market needs short sellers more than ever, given the amount of games that are being played. AdvertisementMeanwhile, some companies have taken to trying to turn investors against short sellers, Block added. "It's easy to demonize short sellers, as part of the populist messaging, and somehow call us suits," Block said.

Persons: Carson, —, Carson Block, Jim Chanos, Chanos, David Einhorn, Elon Musk Organizations: Carson Block, Bloomberg, Service, Muddy Waters, JPMorgan, US Securities, Exchange, Tesla's, Trump Media, Technology Group

☆ Wall Street's renewed bullishness on Apple stock is all about the iPhone 16
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America increased its price objective for Apple stock in a note on Thursday. The bank highlighted the next iPhone upgrade as the key to taking Apple stock higher. The AI system is known "Apple Intelligence," and can only be accessed on Apple models 15 and older. AdvertisementBut the iPhone 16's features aren't the only catalyst — there's pent up demand for a new model, Wedbush said, estimating that 270 million iPhone users have not upgraded their devices in four years. Preference for Apple increased above other smartphone brands.

Persons: —, Siri, BofA, Wedbush Organizations: Bank of America, Apple, Service, . Bank of America, Apple Intelligence, Wedbush Securities, Huawei Locations: China, Mar

☆ When will AI's stock-market dominance fade? Goldman says watch this key signal.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

With that in mind, the authors of the note — led by Ryan Hammond — are closely watching downward revenue revisions for signs the AI spending isn't paying off. "Today's hyperscalers will eventually be required to prove that revenues and earnings will be generated from their investments," analysts wrote. "Investors have expressed uncertainty about the return on those investments for the mega-cap tech stocks, but these stocks remain extremely popular," the analysts wrote. Goldman also points out that, according to a measure it tracks, just 5% of companies are currently using AI to produce goods and services. "Adjusting for profits of these companies, the AI capex cycle still pales in comparison to the tech bubble," the analysts wrote.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, they'll, Goldman, Ryan Hammond — Organizations: Meta, Microsoft, Service, Nvidia

☆ These 2 states are seeing record rent declines even as prices rise nationally
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Metro areas in Florida and Texas are notching record rent declines, according to Redfin. Construction in both states spiked amid a pandemic demand frenzy, contributing to the ongoing declines. AdvertisementMetro areas in Florida and Texas are seeing rent declines as landlords struggle to fill newly built units, Redfin reported. During COVID, an overload of pandemic demand burdened housing and rental markets in both states, triggering a wave of construction. In Florida, the city of Jacksonville notched its biggest asking rent decline since 2019, dropping 12.4% in June on an annual basis.

Persons: —, Redfin Organizations: Service, Tampa, Business Locations: Florida, Texas, Jacksonville

☆ Credit investments aren't worth the risk right now, says bond giant PIMCO
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Private corporate credit is vulnerable to higher interest rates or an economic slowdown, the firm added. What's more, less-liquid private credit is not offering high enough premiums for borrowers that lock in their investments. "The compensation for providing liquidity is declining across both public and private credit markets as more capital chases too few opportunities," CIO of core strategies Mohit Mittal explained. "New investments are entering at potentially unattractive valuations, with corporate spreads across public and private credit markets near record lows." Meanwhile, some corners of private credit are susceptible to an increased macro uncertainty.

Persons: PIMCO, —, Mohit Mittal, that's, Mittal Organizations: Service

☆ Stock market today: Indexes hover near records ahead of Fed Chair Powell's testimony
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stock indexes are hovering near record highs ahead of the testimony of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Meanwhile, the stock market has continued to strike new highs with help from its tech sector, with Nvidia rising 2% on Monday. Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:AdvertisementHere's what else happened today:In commodities, bonds, and crypto:Advertisement

Persons: Jerome Powell, —, Powell, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Federal, Nvidia Locations: Here's

☆ The US battle against Chinese trade could hurt the Americans it's supposed to protect, Harvard professor says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewPoliticians who champion trade restrictions on China are in for a rude awakening, Kenneth Rogoff warns. According to the Harvard professor, barriers on free trade with the Asian powerhouse are a recipe for economic fallout. "Moreover, low-income US consumers have been among the biggest beneficiaries of low-cost Chinese imports." Just months ago, President Biden announced that tariffs would rise on $18 billion worth of Chinese advanced tech products, including solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles.

Persons: —, Kenneth Rogoff, Rogoff, Biden, Donald Trump, he's, Paul Krugman, Jamie Dimon Organizations: Service, Harvard, Project Syndicate, Business, Republican, Allies, China, Foundation Locations: China, Washington, Beijing

☆ Russian FX trading is almost entirely in yuan as sanctions restrict dollar use
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Chinese yuan made up 99.6% of Russian foreign exchange market in June, Bloomberg reported. This comes after the dollar and euro were barred from Russia's main exchange. One expert predicted this would happen, claiming the yuan would become Russia's main trade currency "once and for all." AdvertisementAverage daily volumes in the foreign exchange market contracted by close to a third in the month's second half, the bank report said. AdvertisementHowever, a surge of Russian demand for the Chinese currency has created a yuan liquidity shortage, Bloomberg separately reported.

Persons: —, Moex, Alexandra Prokopenko Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, of, Moscow Exchange, Treasury, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Bank of Locations: of Russia, Moscow, Russia, Beijing, Bank of Russia

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