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☆ Wall Street's top commentators are torn on what the Federal Reserve will do next. Here's what to know.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Traders are largely expecting policymakers to make a 50-basis-point rate hike, a smaller move than the previous four 75-basis-point increases. But next week's adjustment isn't what's top of mind for Wall Street's top Fed commentators — they're looking ahead to next year. To Bridgewater chief investment officer, Rebecca Patterson, the Fed would be justified in surprising markets by holding rates higher for longer. Sustained elevated rates are going to usher in dramatic changes to the economic landscape — and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers agrees. The price cap on Russian oil is "immaterial" and won't make a significant difference on market pricing, according to Vanda Insights.

☆ The price cap on Russian oil is 'immaterial' and won't make a significant difference on market pricing, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The European Union's price cap on Russian oil started Monday, and it's set to $60 a barrel. The CEO of Vanda Insights told Bloomberg that the impact of the price cap on markets, however, will be muted. "Even as the price cap has been set currently at $60, it's above five dollars above where Russian crude has been trading towards the end of last week." "It's certainly not going to achieve one of its critical aims, which was to try and crimp Russian oil revenues," Hari said. Hari said it will be the combination of weak demand in China and a global economic downturn that determine how oil prices move, rather than the price cap on Russian crude.

☆ Tesla makes up 10% of the average retail portfolio as Main Street keeps faith in electric vehicle stock, Vanda Research says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The average retail investor has about a 10% allocation to Tesla, according to a Nov. 30 note from Vanda Research. Even though Tesla has lots of support from retail investors, Vanda thinks there may be trouble ahead for the automaker. "TSLA's price is dangerously close to summer 2020 levels – when most new positions were added post the stock split." In addition, Tesla's recent stock decline "coincides with an increase in the stock-on-loan value relative to the total retail holdings of the stock," Iachini added. "This metric may not necessarily equate to margin loans, but we believe it sensibly approximates retail investors' bullish positions on margin," Iachini said.

Even though more than half the money ever invested in bitcoin would now be underwater if it had stayed, crypto monitors insist it's somehow still attracting punters. Cryptocurrency and bitcoin investors seem to be showing few signs of dumping their crypto-related assets, stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), despite the latest wave of turmoil and scandal to crash over the sector. Analysts at JP Morgan estimate that around $25 billion has flowed out of the crypto since May. He estimates that the stablecoin market cap peaked at around $170 billion earlier this year and has declined by around $25 billion since May. That is, $25 billion of redemptions flowing out of crypto, most likely to fiat currency, perhaps cash or cash-like products.

☆ Oil prices ease as China COVID concerns outweigh supply woes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Isabel Kua | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday after oil supply to parts of Eastern and Central Europe via a section of the Druzhba pipeline was temporarily suspended, according to oil pipeline operators in Hungary and Slovakia. “From all accounts, China is persisting with its zero-COVID policy, which is a natural dampener for oil market sentiment,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. That has dampened the oil demand growth outlook, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting demand growth to slow to 1.6 million bpd in 2023 from 2.1 million bpd this year. Earlier, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its forecast for 2022 global oil demand growth for a fifth time since April citing mounting economic challenges. Industry data showing a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles provided some support to oil prices.

☆ What to know as October inflation data looms - and the Federal Reserve's next move.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Year-over-year inflation for October is expected to have eased slightly to 7.9%, according to Bloomberg's median estimate, down from 8.2% September. But here's a tidbit I did not find reassuring: The annual inflation rate came in above forecasts in six of the last seven months. While it'd be a good sign if CPI comes in lower than September, that doesn't mean the economy is in the clear — far from it, actually. "If Core inflation comes in greater than 0.5%, the Fed will raise rates more and we would be reevaluating the probability of a recession, and probably raising it higher." The chief global strategist for JPMorgan's investing arm explained why the Fed will cause an unnecessary recession, even as inflation is fading away.

☆ Retail investors are rushing in to buy the dip in crypto-linked stocks after FTX drama sparks big sell-off in digital assets
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Retail investors have been snapping up crypto-linked stocks and ETFs during the latest plunge sparked by FTX's collapse. Net purchases of the long-positioned ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF and the ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF jumped on Tuesday. "Retail are buying the dip again," the firm said about shares of crypto-linked companies and exchange-traded funds in a note published Wednesday. He said net purchases by retail investors of the long-positioned ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF and the ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF jumped by a similar magnitude on Tuesday, by $1.4 million and US$1.1 million, respectively. Among shares of cryptocurrency companies active among retail investors, crypto trading platform Coinbase fell 8.5%, Robinhood slid nearly 10%, and Block lost more than 7%.

☆ Meme stock rally could be sign that investor appetite for risk is returning
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The stock's Monday volume, which stood at over 10 million shares after the close, far exceeded the 506,000 shares investors have shorted, he said. "There is no way today’s price move is due to a short squeeze, it is virtually all long buying pressure," Dusaniwsky said. Many meme stocks have been pounded this year as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, sapping investors’ appetite for risk. Shares of GameStop Corp (GME.N), which put meme stocks into the spotlight with its epic rally in 2021, are down 24% for the year to date while AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (AMC.N) has fallen 60%. "If that’s the case that would further tamp down Treasury yields and create a tailwind for equities."

☆ Oil falls by more than $1/bbl as demand fears linger
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Rowena Edwards | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Andrew KellyLONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell by more than $1 per barrel on Tuesday as bearish economic data from key global economies heightened demand fears. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterSupply and demand fundamentals remain largely stable, leaving economic sentiment centre-stage for the oil market, said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights. Signs of uncertain economic activity in the United States and China, the world's two biggest oil consumers, continued to weigh on prices on Tuesday. Government data on Monday showed China's crude oil imports in September were 2% lower than a year earlier, continuing a trend of lower imports at the same time it reported slowing retail sales. U.S. crude oil inventories are also expected to rise this week, which may limit price gains.

☆ Oil rises as U.S. dollar loses steam though demand fears linger
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Mohi Narayan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

International benchmark Brent crude futures gained 3 cents to $93.29 per barrel by 0652 GMT, after falling 0.3% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for December delivery rose 11 cents to $84.69 per barrel, after a previous decline of 0.6%. Supply and demand fundamentals remain largely stable, leaving economic sentiment at the centre-stage for the oil market, Hari added. U.S. crude oil inventories are also expected to rise this week, which may limit price gains. Analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by 200,000 barrels in the week to Oct. 21.

☆ Oil gains as U.S. dollar eases though demand fears linger
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Mohi Narayan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

International benchmark Brent crude futures gained 27 cents to $93.53 per barrel by 0415 GMT, after falling 0.3% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for December delivery rose 36 cents to $84.94 per barrel, after a previous decline of 0.6%. Supply and demand fundamentals remain largely stable, leaving economic sentiment at the centre-stage for the oil market, Hari added. read moreU.S. crude oil inventories are also expected to rise this week, which may limit price gains. Analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by 200,000 barrels in the week to Oct. 21.

☆ British pound slides on political uncertainty, reversing Liz Truss resignation bounce
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

British Prime Minister Liz Truss announces her resignation, outside Number 10 Downing Street, London, Britain October 20, 2022. Henry Nicholls | ReutersLONDON — The British pound fell 1.4% against the dollar Friday, more than wiping out the moderate gains it made following the resignation of Prime Minister Liz Truss. Truss announced she would be stepping down Thursday, saying she could not deliver the mandate on which she was elected just 44 days prior. The pound was rocky through the day, but ended it slightly higher than the previous session. Sunak, who was finance minister under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson and ran head-to-head against Truss for the leadership over the summer, is considered a favorite to replace her.

☆ Traders on intervention watch as yen hits 150, pound gains as Truss resigns
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The fragile yen briefly weakened past 150 per dollar for the first time since August 1990. It was last trading at 149.76 yen per dollar. This has sent U.S. yields and the dollar higher, particularly against the yen as the Bank of Japan is committed to keeping interest rates near zero. The pound rallied ahead of the announcement, before paring gains and then again moving higher. The dollar index dipped 0.50% against a basket of major currencies to 112.40, which analysts said was likely due to consolidation.

☆ There's still a bull case for the stock market even as inflation runs hot and rates rise
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Today we're also looking at one firm's view that there's still a bull case to be made for stocks, but its sitting on increasingly shaky ground. The upside case for stocks rests largely on two things: inflation and rates. DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas told clients this week that investors could propel stocks up heading into 2023. "TIPS and Fed Funds Futures prices do currently support the idea that in six months inflation will be dropping and Fed policy will be moving into neutral," Colas said. Individual investors have reduced net purchases of stocks in recent days following the September inflation shock.

☆ Retail investors are the most bearish they've been in months after September's inflation shock, but a rebound in the S&P 500 would spark new buying spree, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bearishness among retail investors reached its highest since June after the last CPI report, Vanda Research says. The cohort is likely increase net buying of speculative assets over the next two weeks if the S&P 500 can sustain a rally. Stocks initially plunged after last Thursday's report and Vanda said retail investors were buying the dip. Retail investors appeared hesitant to chase the rebound in stocks over the following days, the firm said. The S&P 500 had climbed in the past two sessions but was moving lower during Wednesday's action.

☆ Oil rises as positive Chinese signals counter recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude futures rose 53 cents, or 0.6%, to $92.16 a barrel by 1245 GMT, recovering from a 6.4% fall last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 34 cents, or 0.4%, at $85.95 after a 7.6% decline last week. China will further increase reserve capacities for key commodities, another state official told a news conference in Beijing. The third-quarter GDP data, along with September activity data, is due for release on Oct. 18 at 0200 GMT. Meanwhile a strong U.S. dollar and further interest rate increases from the U.S. Federal Reserve are helping to contain price gains.

☆ There are signs of change in the M&A market. Bank of America gives their buyout candidates
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Health and tech are providing heat in what is otherwise a lukewarm year for merger and acquisition deals, according to Bank of America. The bank reported 150 deals so far this year, which annualized comes in about 9% lower than last year. That makes sense given lower market returns typically make for a weaker deal landscape, said strategist Jill Carey Hall. Bank of America screened for small-cap companies that could have merger or acquisition potential. It also boosted its revenue outlook for the third quarter to between $112 million and $115 million from between $96 million and $100 million.

☆ Retail investors are about to throw in the towel and finally sell if Apple and Tesla stumble, Vanda Research says
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Retail investors are on the verge of throwing in the towel and selling stocks if Apple and Tesla tumble, according to Vanda Research. "A positioning puke in these two stocks could be the coup de grace for retail investors' PnL," Vanda Research said. The firm estimates that combined, Apple and Tesla account for 34% of the average retail investors' stock portfolio. That concentration has actually helped retail investors performance, as both Apple and Tesla have outperformed the S&P 500 considerably year-to-date and over the past year. "A positioning puke in these two stocks could be the coup de grace for retail investors' PnL," Vanda said.

☆ Retail investors have bailed on most stocks except for these two 'last bastions'
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The two stocks alone make up an estimated 34% of the average retail investor's holdings, he said. "A positioning puke in these two stocks could be the coup de grace for retail investors' PnL," Iachini, referring to an acronym used to describe an investor's profit-and-loss statement. He said Korean retail investors, who account for about 2% of Apple's retail holdings, selling off the news would likely mean forced liquidations. Why retail capitulation matters A new index from Vanda gauging retail capitulation, meaning the act of giving up on the market, has shown sentiment and hard money data has continued sliding. "This goes to show that retail investors' flows have been pivotal in cushioning the equity sell-off, in our view," he said.

☆ Hedge funds mounted bearish UK bets as Truss became PM
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - In the first half of September bets against sterling posted the biggest two-week rise since 2013, a sign that hedge funds may have ramped up short positions just as Liz Truss became Britain's new Prime Minister. According to Vanda Research, which uses data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), short contracts of GBP/USD made by leveraged funds in the first two weeks of September jumped 17 percentage points. Speculators have trimmed their net short position on the British pound to 54,843 contracts last week valued at $3.9 billion, down from a previous net short position of 68,086 contracts, figures from the CFTC show. CFTC data showed speculators have maintained short positions against the pound every week since February. Gargour has had positions in the pound but because of UK marketing regulations could not confirm if he was short.

Indigenous Sonia Guajajara, head of the Articulation of Indigenous Peoples of Brazil (APIB) organisation and candidate for federal deputy, takes part in an interview in Sao Paulo, Brazil, September 21, 2022. REUTERS/Amanda PerobelliSAO PAULO, Sept 22 (Reuters) - A record number of indigenous leaders, most of them women, are running for federal office in Brazil's election next month, in a backlash against the policies of President Jair Bolsonaro. "This election is crucial," said Sonia Guajajara, head of Brazil's main indigenous umbrella organization, the Articulation of Indigenous Peoples of Brazil (APIB), who is running for Congress. "Today, it is the women who are taking up the fight and leading the struggle of indigenous people in Brazil." Four decades passed before the election of another indigenous representative in Congress – a woman, Joenia Wapichana, from the state of Roraima.

☆ OPEC faces a challenge of 'crystal ball-gazing,' says analytics firm
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOPEC faces a challenge of 'crystal ball-gazing,' says analytics firmVandana Hari of Vanda Insights says the challenge for OPEC and the wider oil market pertains to the severity and timing of the economic downturn, and "connecting the dots" to what it would mean for oil demand.

☆ VIDEO/ Ministrul demisionar al Agriculturii acuză că noua metodologie de calcul a carburanților afectează activitatea fermierilor: „Agricultorii ne-au preîntâmpinat că vor lua măsuri drastice”
▼ + stars: | 2021-07-09 | by ( Buzdugan Loredana | ) www.zdg.md time to read: +3 min

După ce ANRE a aprobat noua Metodologie de calculare a prețului la produsele, producătorii nu pot să se asigure cu motorină cu prețuri angro. Ministerul Agriculturii cere instituțiilor abilitate să intervină în metodologia de calcul la produsele petroliere pentru a nu permite periclitarea recoltării culturilor agricole. Altfel, agricultorii ne-au preîntâmpinat că vor lua măsuri drastice prin ocuparea drumurilor și protestelor masive”, a declarat Ion Perju. Un document cu privire la metogologia de calcul și aplicare a prețurilor la produsele petroliere a fost aprobat în ședința de luni, 14 iunie, a Consiliului de Administrare a ANRE. Hotărârea privind aprobarea Metodologiei de calcul și aplicare a prețurilor la produsele petroliere urmează să intre în vigoare începând cu data de 01.07.2021.

Persons: Ion Perju, Perju, ANRE, Ion Organizations: Ministerul Agriculturii, Dezvoltării Regionale, Mediului, Agriculturii, Ministerul Economiei, ANRE, Agenția Națională, Agenția Locations: Moldova, planificăm

☆ În plin sezon agricol, fermierii riscă să rămână cu tractoarele în câmp. Perju: Unele staţii PECO refuză să vândă carburanţi angro
▼ + stars: | 2021-07-09 | by ( Publika.Md - Aici Sunt Știrile | ) www.publika.md time to read: +1 min

În plin sezon agricol, fermierii riscă să rămână cu tractoarele în câmp. Se întâmplă după ce unele staţii PECO au refuzat să mai vândă carburanţi angro, în urma deciziei Parlamentului de a plafona din nou preţurile la combustibil. Amintim că din 1 iulie a intrat în vigoare noua metodologie de plafonare a preţurilor la carburanţi, care a fost aprobată de ANRE în data de 14 iunie. Petroliştii care vor depăşi preţurile maxime calculate riscă să rămână fără licenţă pentru două luni. Parlamentul a decis ca preţurile la carburanţi să fie din nou plafonate, după ce timp de jumătate de an, acestea au crescut cu aproximativ 30 la sută.

Persons: Ion Organizations: Agriculturii, Dezvoltării Regionale, Fiscal, Parlamentul Locations: carburanţi

☆ Iarmarocul de flori din Capitală, fără vânzători. La târg au venit cu marfă doar zece comercianți
▼ + stars: | 2021-07-09 | by ( Publika.Md - Aici Sunt Știrile | ) www.publika.md time to read: +1 min

A suflat vântul astăzi în iarmarocul de flori şi răsad amenajat special pentru producătorii autohtoni în Piaţa Centrală din Capitală. Deși au solicitat în mod repetat deschiderea târgului pentru a-şi putea vinde marfa, am surprins doar 10 vânzători. "Băiatul meu a stat o săptămână şi a vândut într-o săptămână de 75 de lei, dar locul e 75 pe zi. Administrația Pieţei Centrale spune că iarmarocul a fost deschis la insistenţa vânzătorilor. Iarmarocul de flori şi răsad va fi deschis până în 31 iulie.

Persons: Veronica Ion, Ion Pîntea Organizations: Centrale Locations: Piaţa, Capitală

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