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New York CNN Business —Warning lights are flashing in the global economy as high inflation, drastic rate hikes and the war in Ukraine take their toll. There is currently a 98.1% chance of a global recession, according to a probability model run by Ned Davis Research. The only other times that recession model was this high has been during severe economic downturns, most recently in 2020 and during the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. “This indicates that the risk of a severe global recession is rising for some time in 2023,” economists at Ned Davis Research wrote in a report last Friday. Seven out of 10 economists surveyed by the World Economic Forum consider a global recession at least somewhat likely, according to a report published Wednesday.
US stocks climbed Wednesday, with the S&P 500 logging its first win in seven sessions. Oil prices rose and concerns about iPhone 14 demand weighed on Apple's stock. The Dow industrials and the S&P 500 were higher after six straight losses while the Nasdaq Composite rose for a second straight session. All 11 sectors on the S&P 500 gained ground, led by the energy group. Oil prices rose after US weekly crude stockpiles unexpectedly fell by 200,000 barrels.
The Federal Reserve's anti-inflation tightening is going to hit long-risk investors, Scott Minerd said. Another jumbo rate hike is expected when the Fed wraps its September meeting on Wednesday. Minerd cautioned the Fed against hiking rates for much longer, and laid out three reasons why policymakers should think twice. "When you look at the stuff that policymakers should look at, the money supply is contracting, we have inflation that we're looking at in the rear-view mirror, we're not looking at inflation going forward," he said. Read more: Stanley Druckenmiller says the Fed is like a 'reformed smoker,' while Jeff Gundlach warns it's driving the US into a dumpster.
Stock investing in the current environment has been kind of like that 1990s "Seinfeld" episode of a similar name, where seemingly familiar dynamics are off kilter. But if you're feeling like it's been exceptionally weird lately — and perhaps just plain upside-down — you're not alone. In reality, we've seen high oil, we've seen high inflation, we've seen wars in Europe and tension with China. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
The last time we spoke, market observers were scratching their heads over the stock market's seemingly unstoppable march higher. Turns out maybe the stock market was right all along. Exclusive interview with the head of iSharesBlackRockETFs helped investors navigate the recent period of volatility, particularly in parts of fixed income where liquidity dried up. This development signals that a new breed of stocks is taking over as the market leaders for the next period of economic expansion. Strategists at the firm highlighted two pairs trades that have been performing well since the stock market hit rock bottom in March.
In an exclusive interview, the Gamco chairman shared the investing themes he's tracking, including what he's doing in media, healthcare, and utilities. David Dudding's mutual fund has consistently dominated peers, and it's one of the best global stock funds in 2020. He detailed for us the major themes in his portfolio, what he's done since the pandemic started, and his top picks for the future. Commentary/outlooks from top-tier investors and Wall Street firmsBusiness Insider surveyed 10 fund and portfolio managers on various aspects of their strategies in a post-pandemic world. The attractiveness of US assets relative to the rest of the world is brewing a bubble in the stock market, according to equity-derivatives strategists at Bank of America.
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