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With the end of another earnings season in sight, Wall Street's attention has turned to Washington and the debt ceiling deadline. Republican negotiators on Friday walked out of talks on raising the debt limit , abruptly ending a positive week of discussions that appeared to be leading toward a deal. Democrats and the White House have been pushing for a "clean" hike to the debt limit that would push the next deadline past the 2024 presidential election, while Republicans are pressing for spending cuts. Many investors believe this ongoing game of chicken over the debt limit is largely for show, since the U.S. has never defaulted on its debt obligations. U.S. President Joe Biden hosts debt limit talks with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and other congressional leaders in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, U.S., May 9, 2023.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) rose 0.66%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) continued its ascent, rising to its highest since August 1990, during the country's so-called bubble era. Futures indicated European stocks were set to open higher, with Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.44%, German DAX futures up 0.41% and FTSE futures up 0.23%. China's blue-chip CSI300 Index (.CSI300) rose 0.20%, while the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) was up 0.13%, having reversed from earlier losses. Hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers continued with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard saying inflation was not cooling fast enough to allow the Fed to pause its interest-rate hike campaign. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose 0.029% and was wedged near a two-month high.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) eased 0.20% but was set to eke out a gain of 0.19% for the week. Data in the week underscored that China's economy lost momentum at the beginning of the second quarter, stoking worries over the wobbly post-COVID-19 recovery. Investor attention has been firmly on the negotiations over U.S. debt ceiling and increasing hopes that a deal could be reached sent U.S. shares higher overnight . Hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers continued with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard saying inflation was not cooling fast enough to allow the Fed to pause its interest-rate hike campaign. U.S. crude fell 0.14% to $71.76 per barrel and Brent was at $75.78, down 0.11% on the day.
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over two basis points to 3.6249%. U.S. Treasury yields fell on Friday as investors weighed comments from Federal Reserve officials on the outlook for interest rate policy and assessed the state of the economy. Investors looked to remarks from Fed speakers for hints about monetary policy and assessed how that may affect the economy. On Thursday, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she did not believe halting interest rate hikes was justified based on recent economic data. More Fed speakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell, are due to speak Friday.
Morning Bid: Hopeful ahead of the weekend
  + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Yoruk Bahceli. Markets are heading into the weekend basking in optimism that a debt ceiling deal to avert a catastrophic U.S. Treasury default will be struck soon. His team have reported progress in talks and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has said a deal is "doable" by Sunday. The S&P 500 is up 1.8% this week, set for its best week since end-March when markets were in panic mode around a banking crisis dragging down the economy. Fed speakers also sounded the alarm; Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday U.S. inflation doesn't look like it's cooling fast enough to merit a rate hike pause.
Watch Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speak live on monetary policy
  + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks Friday at the "Perspectives on Monetary Policy" panel at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference the central bank is hosting in Washington, D.C. The remarks come with markets suddenly divided on where the Fed goes from here. Market pricing Friday morning indicated about a 35% probability the Fed might approve another interest rate hike when it meets in June, according to the CME Group. The Fed next week will release minutes from its meeting earlier in May at which it approved its 10th interest rate hike since March 2022. Read more:Dallas Fed President Logan says current data doesn't justify pausing rate hikes yetFed Governor Philip Jefferson named as new vice chair to succeed Lael BrainardFed increases rates a quarter point and signals a potential end to hikes
Fed Officials Suggest June Rate Rise Will Be Close Call
  + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Federal Reserve officials indicated the decision to raise interest rates at their meeting next month was shaping up as a close call, with another policy maker Thursday hinting she would support another increase. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, a key centrist on the Fed’s policy-setting committee, suggested that barring further weakness in the economic outlook, she would be prepared to lift the benchmark federal-funds rate by a quarter percentage point at the central bank’s June 13-14 meeting.
Tech led the stock market higher on Thursday as investors chase the growing hype around artificial intelligence. Investors are also looking toward progress on the debt ceiling negotiations and the potential for another Fed rate hike in June. Investors were also closely monitoring progress on debt ceiling negotiations, with the June 1 "X-date" now less than two weeks away. While President Biden traveled to Japan for the G7 summit, he said he would cut his trip early and return to Washington, D.C. to continue the debt ceiling negotiations. Fed President James Bullard also said on Thursday that another rate hike in June is possible.
Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said Thursday that the economic data points so far don't justify skipping a rate increase at the central bank's next meeting in June. While noting some progress in bringing down inflation and cooling the labor market, Logan said the Fed still has work to do in achieving its goal for price stability. But she expressed concern that what she's seen so far has indicated only modest impact from the Fed rate hikes, which have totaled 5 percentage points. And it's a long way from here to 2% inflation," Logan said, referring to the Fed's longer-run goal. She noted that the Fed's preferred inflation data point, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, ran at a 4.9% annualized pace in the first quarter.
The Fed should issue a "hawkish pause" in its rate hike cycle, the former Dallas Fed President said. That's because recent banking chaos is still in the early stages of unfolding, Robert Kaplan told Bloomberg. "I think we're in the early stages, not the late stages of this banking situation," Kaplan told Bloomberg in a televised interview early Wednesday. There's an 87% probability policymakers will raise the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 5%-5.25%. In terms of the Fed, "let's say they raise then pause, or they pause and and signal a so-called hawkish pause, either way, the rhetoric needs to be that the Fed stands ready to raise rates," said Kaplan.
While that's good for them, it also means "we're definitely moving towards a slowdown," one CFO said. "They are trying to fight a problem but there's evidence around the U.S. that says the economy is slowing. One concern voiced by CFOs is that the top end of the consumer market has been masking deeper problems in the economy, with companies tracking a rise in credit delinquencies, and that is now starting to spread. But inside major corporations, executives say they see signs of mounting trouble for the economy and as another interest rate hike looms, it may be time for the Fed to stop. While traders are betting on rate cuts before year-end, the CNBC Fed Survey shows a belief from economists and money managers that the Fed will hold rates higher for eight months.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI would hate to see the Fed not complete the course, says former Dallas Fed president Richard FisherRichard Fisher, former Dallas Fed president and senior Barclays advisor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's upcoming policy meeting, the Fed's rate hike path, and more.
US futures bounce but bank worries boost safer bets
  + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Nasdaq futures were up 1.3% and S&P 500 futures up 0.4% following better-than-expected profits at Microsoft (MSFT.O) and a $70 billion stock buyback at Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O). Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META.O) reports later in the day, with U.S. markets on edge over softening U.S. data and fresh regional bank jitters. On Tuesday, First Republic Bank (FRC.N) shares were sold to a record low after the bank disclosed a $100 billion plunge in deposits. The S&P 500 (.SPX) and Nasdaq (.IXIC) both fell heavily while bonds rallied sharply and interest rate futures markets priced in a higher chance of Fed cuts later in the year. Two-year Treasury yields dropped 18.7 basis points on Tuesday and were steady at 3.9365% in Asia.
US futures bounce with earnings but bank worries weigh
  + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Nasdaq futures were up 1.4% and S&P 500 futures up 0.5% following better-than-expected profits at Microsoft (MSFT.O) and a $70 billion stock buyback at Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O). First Republic Bank (FRC.N) shares were sold to a record low after the bank disclosed a $100 billion plunge in deposits. Bonds rallied sharply and interest rate futures markets priced in a higher chance of Fed cuts later in the year. Two-year Treasury yields dropped 18.7 basis points overnight and were steady at 3.9221% in Asia. Brent crude futures hovered at $80.98 a barrel having dropped almost 4% overnight with the risk-averse mood.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher: Four or five percent inflation is unacceptableRichard Fisher, former Dallas Fed president and senior Barclays advisor, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss why the Federal Reserve doesn't seem as worried about the bank failures as the markets, if recent data has swayed the Federal Reserve, and more.
AT&T (T.N) shares dropped 10.4% after the wireless carrier missed market estimates for first-quarter revenue and free cash flow. The S&P 500's rally to start the year is set to be tested by a first-quarter earnings season that investors expect to show tepid results. “The market has been overbought for the last week or two," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. In other earnings news, American Express Co (AXP.N) profit missed Wall Street estimates and its shares fell 1%. Shares of Lam Research (LRCX.O) rose 7.2% after the chip-making equipment supplier's revenue topped estimates, while shares of D.R.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed still needs to slay inflation dragon, says former Dallas Fed president Richard FisherRichard Fisher, former Dallas Fed president, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss the Fed and banking sector turmoil.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI'm not sure this is the last 25 basis point move: Former Dallas Fed president Richard FisherRichard Fisher, former Dallas Fed president and senior Barclays advisor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss his takeaways from the Federal Reserve rate announcement and more.
The good news: Banks were willing to go to the Fed for help, and the central bank was willing and able to comply. Programs such as the BTFP can have that stigma, too, but in this case the Fed made its conditions a bit easier than the discount window. The BTFP also pays par value on securities offered in exchange for cash, while the discount window uses market value. "The discount window takes everything. "We have seen the largest uptake of the discount window in history.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI don't think the Fed should pause the 25 basis point hike, says former Dallas Fed PresidentRichard Fisher, former Dallas Fed president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the contagion risk from the fallout of SVB, whether smaller banks will begin to get acquired by larger banks, and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailToday's credit dilemma a result of having free money for too long, says fmr. Richard FisherRichard Fisher, former Dallas Fed president, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss speculative lending, the potential for a credit crisis and large amounts of interest paid on reserves.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors should used to higher rates for longer, says former Dallas Fed president Richard FisherRichard Fisher, former Dallas Fed president and senior Barclays advisor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Federal Reserve's previous messaging, what's really causing the prolonged inflation and more.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWorst thing the Fed can do is pause, warns fmr. Dallas Fed President Richard FisherFormer Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher helps make sense of today's economic data. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Bonawyn Eison and Guy Adami.
U.S. Treasury yields declined on Wednesday as investors digested January's consumer price index report and looked ahead to further economic data and remarks from Federal Reserve speakers slated for the week. On Tuesday, the latest reading of the consumer price index, which tracks price changes for a range of goods and services, came in higher than expected and showed that inflation rose by 0.5% in January. Speaking at the New York Bank Association after the release of the CPI report, New York Fed President John Williams suggested that the Fed's battle with inflation was not yet over. The Fed has been hiking interest rates in an effort to cool the economy and ease inflation. On Wednesday, investors will be following the release of retail sales figures and awaiting the release of the producer price index report, as well as fresh comments from Fed officials on Thursday.
Gold slips as U.S. inflation data heightens rate-hike jitters
  + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Spot gold was down 0.5% at $1,845.96 per ounce, as of 0538 GMT, after falling to its lowest since early January on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,856.60. Rising interest rates discourage investors from placing money in non-yielding assets such as gold. Fed officials said on Tuesday the U.S. central bank would need to keep gradually raising interest rates to beat inflation. Money markets expect the Fed's target rate to peak at 5.263% in July from a current range of 4.50% to 4.75%.
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