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☆ U.S. crude output to rise in 2023, while demand to stay flat -EIA
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Companies U.S. Energy Information Administration FollowNEW YORK/HOUSTON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - U.S. crude production will rise in 2023 even as demand flattens, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday in its Short Term Energy Outlook. EIA's latest forecast calls for crude oil production to rise by 590,000 barrels per day, to 12.49 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, and by another 160,000 barrels to 12.65 million bpd next year. U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption will stay flat at 20.3 million bpd this year, the EIA said, while forecasting U.S. economy would contract slightly in the first six months. The agency also forecast Russian production of petroleum and other liquids would decline by about 1 million to 9.9 million bpd in 2023. Brent crude oil prices will decline in the second half of the year to about $82 per barrel from $85 per barrel in the first half as global oil production outpaces demand and leads to inventory builds, EIA added.

☆ U.S. natgas output to hit record high in 2023, demand to fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 100.27 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 and 101.68 bcfd in 2024 from a record 98.09 bcfd in 2022. The agency also projected domestic gas consumption would fall to 87.04 bcfd in 2023 and 86.10 bcfd in 2024 from a record 88.63 bcfd in 2022. But EIA's latest projections for 2023 were higher than its February 2022 forecasts of 97.97 bcfd for supply and 83.85 bcfd for demand. The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would reach 11.78 bcfd in 2023 and 12.59 bcfd in 2024, up from a record 10.63 bcfd in 2022. That 2023 forecast was lower than the 12.06 bcfd EIA forecast in January due to the delayed restart of the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas.

Worries of higher rates for longer amplified the downbeat mood set by disappointing results from megacap growth companies. The three main Wall Street indexes were still set for gains this week. Ten of the top 11 S&P 500 sectors fell with only energy stocks (.SPNY) in positive territory as oil prices rose. Nearly 70% of half the S&P 500 firms that reported fourth-quarter earnings have topped Wall Street expectations. Analysts now see earnings of S&P 500 firms declining 2.7% for the quarter, according to Refinitiv.

The rate hikes imposed by the Fed since March have now totaled 4.5 percentage points, with the policy rate now in a range between 4.50% and 4.75%, the highest since 2007. It is in part that resilience that has the central bank poised for "ongoing increases" in its policy interest rate. Stocks, modestly lower ahead of the Fed rate decision, turned sharply higher as Powell spoke. "If you were hoping for clear signs of an upcoming pause in interest rate hikes, you were left wanting. INFLATION TARGET REAFFIRMEDThe Fed statement indicated that any future rate increases would be in quarter-percentage-point increments, dropping a reference to the "pace" of future increases and instead referring to the "extent" of rate changes.

Stocks, modestly lower ahead of the Fed rate decision, turned sharply higher as Powell spoke, with the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) index climbing about 1% on the session. At the same time, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note , the maturity most sensitive to Fed policy expectations, dropped abruptly to the day's low, last trading down about 8 basis points at around 4.12%. The Federal Reserve retained the phrase 'ongoing increases' in their statement, leaving their options open depending on what upcoming economic data says," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. The statement did indicate that any future rate increases would be in quarter-percentage-point increments, dropping a reference to the "pace" of future increases and instead referring to the "extent" of rate changes. But those, it said, would take into account how the policy moves so far had impacted the economy, language that linked further rate increases to the evolution of upcoming economic data.

[1/5] U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addresses reporters after the Fed raised its target interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, during a news conference at the Federal Reserve Building in Washington, U.S., February 1, 2023. Stocks, modestly lower ahead of the Fed rate decision, were little moved by the release of the policy statement, with the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) index down about 0.3% on the session. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note , the maturity most sensitive to Fed policy expectations, rose to the day's high, last trading up 2 basis points at about 4.22%. "If you were hoping for clear signs of an upcoming pause in interest rate hikes, you were left wanting. The statement did indicate that any future rate increases would be in quarter-percentage-point increments, dropping a reference to the "pace" of future increases and instead referring to the "extent" of rate changes.

☆ Stocks firm, dollar on edge ahead of Fed decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed will announce its rate decision at 1900 GMT, followed by a news conference with Chair Jerome Powell half an hour later. Currency trade has been in a holding pattern ahead of the Fed and Bank of England and European Central Bank meetings that follow on Thursday. But the U.S. wages data wiped out some small dollar gains made earlier this week amid some nerves that the Fed sticks to its hawkish stance. United Parcel Service (UPS.N), the world's biggest package delivery firm, beat forecasts and shares rose 4.7%. Prices for dollar bonds in Adani Group companies were steadying in Asia trade on Wednesday after last week's rout.

☆ Stocks up, yields dip after U.S. data with Fed eyed
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Other data showed consumer confidence eased in January, with inflation expectations over the next twelve months climbing to 6.8% from 6.6% last month. Investors will also closely monitor comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell following the announcement for clues on the path of monetary policy. Markets will also grapple with a host of U.S. economic data this week, culminating in Friday's payrolls report for January. Economic data for the euro zone showed slight growth for the fourth quarter, but further weakness is expected this year. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.22% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.20%.

About a quarter of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings so far, of which 69% have beaten analysts' estimates, according to Refinitiv data as of Thursday. Both companies were among the biggest boosts to the S&P 500 (.SPX) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI). Seven of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors edged higher with the consumer discretionary sector (.SPLRCD) surging 1.4%. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.32-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.37-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 12 new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 43 new highs and 21 new lows.

Inflation data improved too, as growth in personal consumption expenditures slowed to 2.1% year over year from 2.3% in the prior quarter while the GDP price index, another inflation measure, decelerated to 3.5%. MSCI's all-country world index, a gauge of stocks in 47 countries, (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.62% to hit a fresh five-month high, while the dollar index rose 0.325%. "What Powell has pushed back on a lot is to not really think about lowering rates at all," Ragan said. "But they are willing to pause and hold rates at a high level for a certain period of time." The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 0.31%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 0.70% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 1.24%.

The stock was the biggest boost to the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector index (.SPLRCD). So far, 126 companies in the S&P 500 have reported fourth-quarter earnings, with 69% topping consensus estimates. Analysts now see aggregate S&P 500 earnings dropping 2.7% year-on-year for the period . The S&P 500 energy sector index (.SPNY) rose 2.2%, also helped by higher crude prices. The S&P index recorded 21 new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 79 new highs and 20 new lows.

MSCI's all-country world index, a gauge of stocks in 47 countries, (.MIWD00000PUS) was up 0.18% after paring gains after hitting a fresh five-month high. The dollar index rose 0.512%. The largely better-than-expected data can help the weakening dollar find a near-term floor, said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington. "On balance, the data being better than expected suggests there's more resilience in the economy than many have given it credit," he said. Oil prices rose more than 1% on Thursday on expectations demand will strengthen as top oil importer China reopens its economy and on positive U.S. economic data.

Separately, the Commerce Department said gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter, above expectations of a 2.6% rise. "It's clear the economy remains relatively strong in the face of the Fed's efforts, suggesting they're succeeding." Growth stocks have been on a winning spree in January, with the S&P 500 Growth index (.IGX) recouping more than half of the losses logged last month. Keeping a lid on gains for Dow e-minis was chemical firm Dow Inc (DOW.N) that slid 3.3% after it missed Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit, hurt by higher energy costs, weaker demand and supply chain disruptions. ET, Dow e-minis were up 81 points, or 0.24%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 22.25 points, or 0.55%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 121.75 points, or 1.03%.

Tesla jumped 10.1%, boosting the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector index (.SPLRCD). Battered growth stocks have been gaining in January, with the S&P 500 Growth index (.IGX) recouping more than half of the losses logged last month. So far, 126 companies in the S&P 500 have reported fourth-quarter earnings, with 69% topping consensus estimates which is below the average of the past four quarters at 76%, according to Refinitiv. Analysts now see aggregate S&P 500 earnings dropping 2.7% year-on-year. The S&P index recorded 19 new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 63 new highs and 11 new lows.

Companies U.S. Department of Energy FollowNEW YORK, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) on Thursday will announce over $100 million in funding to expand U.S. biofuels production, as the Biden administration works to cut greenhouse gas emissions from transportation and meet climate goals, the department told Reuters. The department plans to award $118 million to 17 projects designed to accelerate the production of biofuels, which can be made from biomass including agricultural waste, soybean oil and animal fats. The DOE's funding includes awards to universities and private companies ranging from $500,000 to $80 million for various pre-pilot, pilot and demonstration projects, the department said. About 16.8 billion gallons of biofuels were consumed in the United States in 2021, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The Biden administration has said biofuels will be needed to lower emissions, including in the aircraft industry with lower-carbon sustainable aviation fuel.

Hindenburg, known for having shorted electric truck maker Nikola Corp (NKLA.O) and Twitter, said it holds short positions in Adani companies through U.S.-traded bonds and non-Indian-traded derivative instruments. Shares in Adani Transmission (ADAI.NS) fell 9%, Adani Ports And Special Economic Zone (APSE.NS) slipped 6.3% and Adani Enterprises ended down 1.5%. Adani Group's total gross debt in the financial year ended March 31, 2022, rose 40% to 2.2 trillion rupees. Refinitiv data shows debt at Adani Group's seven key listed Adani companies exceeds equity, with debt at Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADNA.NS) exceeding equity by more than 2,000%. Hindenburg also said it was concerned that a high proportion of equity held by promoters or key shareholders in Adani Group listed companies has been pledged for loans.

☆ Oil falls $2/barrel on economic jitters, U.S. crude stock build
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. economy "still could roll over and some energy traders are still sceptical on how quickly China's crude demand will bounce back this quarter," OANDA analyst Edward Moya said in a note. Euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, S&P Global's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed. Crude oil prices in physical markets have started the year with a rally on increased buying from China after the relaxation of pandemic controls and on trader concern that sanctions on Russia could tighten supply. U.S. oilfield services firm Halliburton Co (HAL.N) said its shale oil-well fracking equipment remains fully booked with oil prices driving increased drilling. Investors have also piled back into petroleum futures and options at the fastest rate for more than two years as concerns over a global business cycle downturn eased.

☆ Oil dips $2 on global economic concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies U.S. business activity contracts in JanU.S. crude stocks likely to rise - pollOPEC+ panel unlikely to tweak oil policy at Feb. 1 meetingComing up: API inventory data at 2130 GMTHOUSTON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices slipped on Tuesday on concerns about a global economic slowdown and an expected build in U.S. oil inventories. Euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, S&P Global's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed. Yet British private sector economic activity fell at its fastest rate in two years. U.S. oilfield services firm Halliburton Co (HAL.N) said its shale oil-well fracking equipment remains fully booked with oil prices driving increased drilling. Investors have also piled back into petroleum futures and options at the fastest rate for more than two years as concerns over a global business cycle downturn eased.

☆ Oil dips $1 on global economic concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies U.S. business activity contracts in JanU.S. crude stocks likely to rise - pollOPEC+ panel unlikely to tweak oil policy at Feb. 1 meetingComing up: API inventory data at 2130 GMTHOUSTON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices dipped on Tuesday on concerns about a global economic slowdown and expected build in U.S. oil inventories. Euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, S&P Global's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed. Crude oil prices in physical markets have started the year with a rally on increased buying from China after the relaxation of pandemic controls and on trader concern that sanctions on Russia could tighten supply. U.S. oilfield services firm Halliburton Co (HAL.N) said its shale oil-well fracking equipment remains fully booked with oil prices driving increased drilling. Investors have also piled back into petroleum futures and options at the fastest rate for more than two years as concerns over a global business cycle downturn have eased.

☆ Cramer on the astonishing rise of offensive stocks — and what could come next
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-22 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

When I went over about 1,000 stocks this weekend, I was astonished to see that the stocks with the strongest charts were those in the most offensive categories. Not even a weaker U.S. dollar has meant anything to brace these stocks from a further fall. There's one group, though, that's just plain hard to call, and that's tech. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ Gold edges higher as investors weigh Fed slowdown chances
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Ashitha Shivaprasad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,906.01 per ounce, as of 0252 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,906.00. Few Fed officials signalled on Wednesday that they would push on with more interest rate hikes, while Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said they supported a slower pace of tightening. Lower interest rates tend to boost bullion's appeal as they decrease the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Spot silver lost 0.2% to $23.38 per ounce, platinum was flat at $1,038.38, and palladium fell 0.1% to $1,716.13.

A reading from the Commerce Department showed retail sales fell 1.1% in December, compared with expectations of a 0.8% drop. Another report showed U.S. producer prices rose less than expected year-on-year in December, adding to evidence of a moderation in inflation. Earnings from big U.S. banks were a mixed bag, with many stockpiling rainy-day funds preparing for a looming recession. Shares of other major carriers including American Airlines Group Inc (AAL.O), Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N) and Southwest Airlines Co (LUV.N) rose between 1.6% and 2.2%. IBM Corp (IBM.N) slipped 1.5% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the company's shares to "equal weight" from "overweight", citing slowing revenue growth.

A reading from the Commerce Department showed retail sales fell 1.1% in December against expectations of a 0.8% drop, while a separate report showed producer prices declined more than expected in December. Traders' bets of a 25-basis point rate hike rose after the data, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to a four-month low. Analysts now expect year-over-year earnings from S&P 500 companies to decline 2.6% for the quarter, according to Refinitiv data, compared with a 1.6% decline in the beginning of 2023. Among major S&P 500 sectors, consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD) were up 1%, leading gains. U.S. stock markets have started 2023 on a strong footing on hopes that a moderation in inflationary pressures could give the Fed cover to dial down the size of its interest rate hikes.

☆ Wall St ends up as data suggests inflation may be on downward trend
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Friday brings results from a number of big U.S. banks, kicking off the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season for S&P 500 companies. Microsoft (MSFT.O) shares rose 1.2%, providing the biggest boost to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while energy shares also were higher along with oil prices. The S&P 500 is now up 3.7% for the year so far. Also, overall S&P 500 earnings are expected to have declined year-over-year in the fourth quarter, according to IBES data from Refinitiv, which would be the first quarterly U.S. earnings decline since 2020. The S&P 500 posted 14 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 96 new highs and 16 new lows.

☆ Wall St gains; data suggests inflation may be on downward trend
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Labor Department's report showed U.S. consumer prices grew 6.5% on an annual basis in December, in line with expectations. Microsoft (MSFT.O) shares were providing the biggest boost to the S&P 500, energy shares also were higher along with oil prices. Friday brings results from a number of big U.S. banks, kicking off the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season for S&P 500 companies. Overall S&P 500 earnings are expected to have declined year-over-year in the fourth quarter, according to IBES data from Refinitiv, which would be the first quarterly U.S. earnings decline since 2020. The S&P 500 posted 14 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 80 new highs and 16 new lows.

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