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☆ Breakingviews: Adani’s share sale U-turn spares only some blushes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HONG KONG, Feb 2 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Markets have given Gautam Adani a big bloody nose, and his backers a partial reprieve. The tycoon’s decision on Wednesday to pull the $2.4 billion share sale at his flagship Adani Enterprises (ADEL.NS) was all but forced after a 28% plunge in the company’s share price the day after it closed the books. That danger was magnified on Wednesday with India’s regulator looking into possible irregularities around the share sale, Reuters reported exclusively citing a source with direct knowledge of the matter. Less than one quarter was due to pay down borrowings at the issuer and its unlisted subsidiaries, including Adani Airport and Adani Road. loadingCONTEXT NEWSAdani Enterprises on Feb. 1 said it is withdrawing its $2.4 billion share sale due to the “unprecedented situation and the current market volatility”.

☆ Jacinda Ardern gives supply shortage new meaning
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MELBOURNE, Jan 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Jacinda Ardern has risen to the top of headhunters’ must-call list. Her contacts, international profile, and social-justice nous are skills corporates, charities and supranational organisations treasure in board members and advisers. Her administration’s push to legalise abortion and to enact climate change legislation gives her serious ESG clout. (By Antony Currie)Follow @Breakingviews on Twitter(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ China’s demographic decline can be boon, not doom
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Yet China’s demographic doom is not certain. It is hard to boost birth rates, but France and Scandinavia show it can be done. If last year’s population plunge inspires Beijing to smarten up policy, demographic stress need not augur economic decline. The birth rate was 6.77 per 1,000 people, down from 7.52 in 2021 and marking the lowest such reading on record. United Nations analysts project China's population will shrink by 109 million by 2050, more than triple the rate of their previous forecast in 2019.

☆ Chip woes short-circuit Samsung's best laid plans
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, Jan 6 (Reuters Breakingviews) - South Korea's Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) can only defy gravity for so long. The worse-than-expected earnings guidance throws cold water on the chipmaker's aggressive supply and capital expenditure spending plans laid out in October. Analysts at Citi reckon Samsung’s memory chip capex this year will be roughly $25 billion, more than 10% lower than their earlier forecast. Samsung's best laid plans are starting to go astray. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ India’s Vodafone stress test may have ugly results
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Investors cheered, and many customers in its now-234 million-and shrinking subscriber base breathed a sigh of relief. Vodafone, meanwhile, is now calling on the banks for fresh loans, per the Economic Times. That may not have been sufficient, but there was no disclosure by the company stating that the swap was conditional on the existing owners’ financial commitment. India’s politicians are careful to avoid situations where they might be accused of being too generous to foreign multinationals. With so much stress, though, other creditors might find a reason to pull the rug from under the company’s feet sooner.

HONG KONG, Jan 5 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Western Digital (WDC.O) faces a daunting M&A challenge. Both outfits specialise in a type of memory chip called NAND flash, which is used in smartphones, computers and data centre servers. Yet even if the logic for a combination looks more compelling against this backdrop, the M&A hurdles Western Digital faced in 2021 are even more challenging today. The union between Western Digital and Kioxia will be a long slog, but worth it. Shares of Western Digital rose 7.7% to $35.63 during after-hours trading in New York on Jan. 4.

☆ Hong Kong’s hamsters sound shrill warning
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, Jan 5 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Almost a year to the day since Hong Kong culled 2,000 hamsters to combat Covid-19, the city is rescinding a ban on importing the creatures for sale, Bloomberg reported on Thursday. The rodents’ return is a small but welcome landmark in its gradual reopening. Imported hamsters must still test negative for the virus before they can be sold. As Hong Kong prepares to start reopening the mainland border next week, the city needs to cure lingering, illogical bureaucracy, which will hamper urgent efforts to heal the economy, and resurrect normal life. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Green surge is circuit breaker on nuclear revival
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Robert Cyran | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, Jan 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Nuclear power received what seem like two plum gifts for 2023. Nuclear plants are expensive to build, and their complexity often causes projects to go way over budget. The cost of a new nuclear power station is around $168 per megawatt hour according to Lazard. China has 22 nuclear reactors under construction, but built renewables about twice as fast. CONTEXT NEWSVogtle 3 and 4 will be the first new nuclear reactors built in the United States in more than three decades.

☆ Banks will pump H2O to top of climate agenda
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

That’s when the United Nations’ first water confab in almost five decades starts in New York. Achieving that globally requires spending $1 trillion a year on the sustainable provision of drinking water and sanitation, and preparing for floods, scarcity and pollution, per the World Resources Institute. And 90% of climate change’s effects manifest through water, as recent floods and scarcity demonstrate. Knowing when to turn off the funding tap is important, too, just as many banks won’t back Arctic drilling or new coal mines. With some financial groups distancing themselves from umbrella climate change bodies, it’s a challenging time to make this case.

☆ India bank sale sharpens valuation rivalry
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Shritama Bose | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (8316.T), Carlyle (CG.O) and Fairfax Financial (FFH.TO) may each be eyeing some of the 61% stake on offer in $7 billion IDBI Bank (IDBI.NS), per reports by The Economic Times and Mint. These latecomers’ share of outstanding loans fell to 55% in March 2022 from 70% in 2016, per Reserve Bank of India data. CONTEXT NEWSIndia on Dec. 14 extended the deadline to submit preliminary bids for the sale of a controlling stake in IDBI Bank to Jan. 7 from Dec. 16. New Delhi intends to sell 30.48%; Life Insurance Corporation of India, which is almost entirely government-owned, will sell a 30.24% stake. Carlyle, Fairfax Financial and DBS Bank are considering bidding for at least 10% each in IDBI Bank, Mint reported on Nov. 7, citing unnamed sources.

A combination of targeted subsidies and local demand will help. China's dependence on foreign suppliers for lithography machines, used to print patterns onto silicon wafers, light-resistant wafer coatings known as photoresists and other vital tools cannot be understated. A 2021 report found that Chinese chipmakers buy less than a fifth of their equipment by value from local suppliers and that the country has localised less than 8% of annual equipment demand. China's equipment specialists, such as little-known firms NAURA Technology Group (002371.SZ) and Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment (688012.SS), are probably too small to effectively absorb massive amounts of government funding anyway. The majority of the funds will be used to subsidise the purchase of domestic semiconductor equipment by Chinese chipmakers.

☆ Breakingviews: Sam Bankman-Fried lacks cover of systemic risk
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MELBOURNE, Dec 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Sam Bankman-Fried couldn’t be blamed for mulling over past financial scandals with a degree of envy. The former boss of bankrupt crypto exchange-cum-hedge-fund FTX was arrested on Monday in the Bahamas at the request of U.S. prosecutors. No senior executives ended up facing criminal charges, or were hauled off in handcuffs even, though several Libor traders went to jail. loadingCONTEXT NEWSSam Bankman-Fried, the former chief executive of now-bankrupt crypto firm FTX, was arrested in the Bahamas on Dec. 12. The attorney general’s office for the Caribbean state said it took Bankman-Fried into custody after receiving formal confirmation of criminal charges from U.S. prosecutors.

☆ Link’s M&A chain breaks into pieces Down Under
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MELBOURNE, Dec 8 (Reuters Breakingviews) - It’s hard to feel bad for well-compensated bankers but Link Administration’s (LNK.AX) M&A advisers at Macquarie (MQG.AX) and UBS (UBSG.S) need some Christmas cheer. On Thursday their client pulled the plug on negotiations for a partial takeover by Canada’s Dye & Durham (DND.TO), effectively accusing its suitor of dithering. Macquarie and UBS did manage Link’s sale of a slug of its 43% stake in mortgage-settlement company PEXA (PXA.AX) and may help distribute the remainder to shareholders. If Link offloads its troubled London unit, the slimmed-down company, worth perhaps A$800 million, could yet attract new interest. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Its dependency on parent Vingroup (VIC.HM) may be a turnoff, too. Success has yet to translate to returns for parent Vingroup, owned by Vietnam’s richest man, Pham Nhat Vuong. VinFast’s net loss nearly doubled to 34.5 trillion dong ($1.45 billion) for the first nine months of 2022 compared with the same period last year, while the top line shrank 6% to 10.5 trillion dong. VinFast reported a net loss of 34.5 trillion dong ($1.45 billion) for the nine months to the end of September, according to the prospectus, widening from 18 trillion dong a year earlier. Revenue fell to 10.5 trillion dong, down from 11.2 trillion dong in the same period last year.

☆ Singapore Airlines extends its India runway
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

On Tuesday Singapore Airlines (SIAL.SI) and Indian conglomerate Tata agreed to merge their nine-year-old jointly owned carrier Vistara with Air India, whose enterprise was valued at $2.4 billion when Tata bought it just over a year ago. Air India, meanwhile, will get a deep-pocketed partner willing to inject as much as $615 million more in capital over the next couple of years, if needed. Singapore Airlines’ ability to finance the deal with cash speaks volumes about its strong financial position. In any event, its ability to upgrade its seat in India will serve Singapore Airlines well. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

HONG KONG, Nov 30 (Reuters Breakingviews) - President Xi Jinping is wrapping up his massive property stress test, but it looks like few have passed. It was precisely what the now near-collapsed China Evergrande (3333.HK) had asked for back in 2020, before regulators dashed its hopes of listing in the Chinese mainland. Among them is Country Garden (2007.HK), whose U.S. dollar bond that matures in January has rebounded 43% to 96 cents on the dollar this month. In comparison, an Evergrande bond due in January still trades at 5.5 cents. These property bailouts are set to leave most in the sector out in the cold.

HONG KONG, Nov 24 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Pershing Square boss Bill Ackman is taking another tilt at the Hong Kong dollar , betting the government will be forced to break its link to the greenback. His logic is stronger today than when he took the plunge in 2011 but it’s up to Beijing, not Hong Kong. Back then Ackman famously predicted that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority would allow the local currency to strengthen against the U.S. dollar. A secular decline in Hong Kong might ultimately sabotage the peg at some point. On the other hand, Hong Kong is a city, not a country.

China’s technology sector has taken a pounding since watchdogs cancelled Ant’s $37 billion stock market debut at the last minute in 2020. The Hang Seng Tech index (.HSTECH), which includes social media giant Tencent (0700.HK) and JD, has fallen another 38% this year. China's powerful market regulator proposed amendments on Tuesday to a law on unfair competition. The e-commerce giant intends, in addition, to allocate at least 10 billion yuan to offer employees interest-free loans to buy a house. The benefits include plans to allocate 10 billion yuan ($1.40 billion) to a fund to assist employees of JD and recently acquired courier firm Deppon Logistics with buying homes.

☆ Messy money manager merger goes from bad to worse
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MELBOURNE, Nov 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Rob Adams must be wishing he could turn the clock back eight months. That’s when the boss of Australian fund management icon Perpetual (PPT.AX) was readying his first tilt for rival Pendal (PDL.AX). Whatever lies behind Paul Skamvougeras’ decision to quit as Perpetual’s Head of Equities, losing a key executive right on the eve of a merger is awkward. And shareholders remain unconvinced the Pendal deal is a certainty as its stock trades 11% below the offer price. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ China reopening hope puts wind in Alibaba sails
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Just ask China's $220 billion e-commerce giant Alibaba (9988.HK), whose New York stock has rallied by a third this month despite tepid performance from its annual Singles Day shopping festival and so-so quarterly results. Revenue from the domestic commerce unit, accounting for nearly two-thirds of Alibaba's top line, fell 1% year-on-year, to $19 billion. Boss Daniel Zhang's cost cuts are paying off, though: the overall adjusted EBITDA margin improved three percentage points to 21%. Zhang's messaging on China's gradual reopening probably resonated with investors more. Shares of Alibaba, rivals JD.com (9618.HK) and Pinduoduo (PDD.O) and other Chinese stocks jumped, too.

☆ BHP’s shinier $6 bln OZ bid stays within reality
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MELBOURNE, Nov 18 (Reuters Breakingviews) - BHP (BHP.AX) boss Mike Henry’s apparent nonchalance about buying OZ Minerals (OZL.AX) always smacked of play-acting. No sooner had the metals miner rejected its larger rival’s A$8.3 billion ($5.8 billion) all-cash overture in August than Henry was fobbing it off as a “nice-to-have, not a must-have” business. Yet on Friday, the target disclosed BHP recently upped its offer 13%, and says it will agree in principle to the revised bid. Henry is now dangling a 49% premium to OZ’s undisturbed share price. Cutting around a third of OZ’s annual expenses would, taxed and capitalised, cover the A$3.1 billion premium.

The initial public offering of the ride-hailing-to-online-shopping giant at a $28 billion market capitalisation in April was a landmark deal on the back of relaxed listing rules. Now GoTo will have to manage a big contortion in the $570 billion stock market. At a stretch, GoTo’s involvement might prevent a further price slump on the company’s current $15 billion market value. The company sold nearly $1 billion of stock at a multiple of 17 times forecast revenue for 2023. The meddling in the secondary market looks like a necessary evil.

☆ Wealth darling DBS channels Singapore’s success
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MUMBAI, Nov 3 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Singapore’s status as a financial centre is thriving, and DBS Group (DBSM.SI), the city-state’s $63 billion wealth darling led by Piyush Gupta, is reaping the benefits of its home market’s success. It makes the Lion City’s pragmatism a key pillar of support: Singapore generated 62% of DBS' total income in 2021. DBS’ wealth management business is attracting money at a rapid clip: net new asset inflows amounted to S$15 billion during the first nine months, doubling from a year ago, Gupta noted. The bank’s annualised return on equity hit a record high of 16.3% too. The bank’s return on equity also hit a new record high of 16.3%, up from 13.4% in the prior three-month period.

☆ China investors desperately seek market bottom
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

HONG KONG, Nov 2 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Tuesday’s rally in China shares may have been based on rumour. But in offshore markets, the value discount on offer is so extreme it makes gambling on false hopes less risky than it might otherwise be. Buying based on online scuttlebutt might seem reckless, but less so considering how beaten up offshore shares in some Chinese companies are. The average constituent of the S&P 500 (.SP500) trades at 15 times its estimated forward earnings, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (.HSCE) ratio is 5 times, Datastream shows. The question, though, is at what point investors see value in beleaguered Chinese technology companies and real estate developers.

☆ Bain gives India’s banking ball a time check
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Bain Capital on Tuesday pocketed some $400 million from selling just under a third of the more than 4% stake it bought in Axis Bank (AXBK.NS) in 2017. Back then, the private equity firm and Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIFI.NS) injected cash as the country’s third-largest non-state-controlled lender was grappling with a slew of bad loans. Axis now oozes confidence under ex-HDFC Life Insurance executive Amitabh Chaudhry, who joined as boss in 2019. Gross bad loans account for 2.5% of total assets, less than half the level when Bain bought in. With Bain currently sitting on 1.6 times its money, excluding dividends, it’s a good time to send some in its party home.

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