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☆ Inflation expectations rebounded in October on record-high jump in gas outlook, NY Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 5.9%, up half a percentage point from September to the highest level since July, according to the New York Fed's monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations. Three-year expectations also accelerated to 3.1%, while the five-year outlook rose to 2.4%, respective increases from 2.9% and 2.2%. The outlook for medical costs and rent were little changed, with the latter up 0.1 percentage point, while the expectations for college costs fell to 8.6%, a 0.4 percentage point decline from September. That was lower than the 0.6% Dow Jones estimate for the monthly gain, while the annual rise of 7.7% was half a percentage point lower than the previous month. A separate gauge released Monday from the quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters also pointed to higher inflation coupled with lower economic growth.

☆ Goldman Sachs expects inflation to 'fall significantly' in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation is likely to show a steep fall in 2023 while remaining above a level where the Federal Reserve feels comfortable, according to the latest Goldman Sachs forecast. "We expect core inflation to fall significantly in 2023 for three key reasons," Goldman economist Spencer Hill said in a client note filed over the weekend. Fed officials currently expect core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, to fall to 3.1% in 2023 before tailing off to 2.3% and 2.1% respectively in subsequent years. The bad news: Even with the substantial drop-off in inflation, the Fed still could feel under pressure to bring it down more. "From the Fed's perspective on inflation, 'falling significantly' and 'returning to target' are two very different things," Hill said.

☆ Stock market rally will be put to test in week ahead, after yields fall and tech surges
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

This week, bond yields also came off their highs and were sharply lower, paving the way for gains in tech and growth shares. They include Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, New York Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari to name a few. Hogan said that group includes Bullard, Brainard and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Many strategists are calling the move higher a bear market rally, and some expect it will fizzle in December while others say it could continue into the new year. Friday Earnings: JD.com, Foot Locker, Buckle 8:40 a.m. Boston Fed President Susan Collins 10:00 a.m.

☆ Fed's quantitative tightening could end in mid-2023, says UBS
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Oct 20 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve will materially alter or fully stop shrinking its massive $8.9 trillion balance sheet by mid-2023, more than a year earlier than market expectations, according to Swiss lender UBS. The plans for balance sheet runoff will face several complications through 2023, leading the Fed to sharply slow or fully stop balance sheet reduction sometime around June 2023, economists at UBS led by Jonathan Pingle wrote in a note dated Oct 19. "Starting last month, the monthly caps that limit the maximum pace of decline of the Fed's balance sheet increased," UBS said. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"This ratchet higher accelerated the reduction in the size of the Fed's balance sheet and will shrink reserves in the banking system at significantly faster pace." The move to accelerate quantitative tightening (QT) is meant to further drain pandemic-era stimulus from the financial system and increase borrowing rates for long-dated assets to weaken inflation.

☆ The Fed is dragging the US into a recession to cool surging prices. Most Americans expect inflation to die down on its own.
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Inflation expectations have been falling since the spring, signaling there's little chance of a 1980s-like price surge. Inflation expectations may seem like simple forecasts, but their effects on the economy can be dramatic. Anchored inflation expectations can put downward pressure on price growth as consumers reject large price hikes and businesses are pushed to compete with each other. Powell on Wednesday pointed to well-anchored inflation expectations as a boon, but noted the trend "is not grounds for complacency." "The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched," the chair said.

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