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Unlike a growing number of central banks in Asia who have pressed the pause button or are close to doing so, the BoE and ECB are both expected to continue raising rates in their battle to get inflation back down towards target. St Louis Fed president James Bullard is much more hawkish though, as he confirmed in an interview with Reuters. The central banks of Australia, Indonesia, India, Singapore and South Korea have all paused, and the Philippine central bank governor signaled a pause in May. But the road ahead looks bumpy, and other indicators for March were mixed - retail sales smashed forecasts, but investment fell short. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

J&J (JNJ.N) shares fell 2.8% after the healthcare conglomerate cautioned investors over the lingering impact of inflation-driven costs this year. Goldman (GS.N) shares dropped 1.7% after the Wall Street firm's profit fell 19% as dealmaking and bond trading slumped. The early quarterly results from S&P 500 companies come as investors have been bracing for a gloomy reporting season, fearing the economy may be on the cusp of a downturn. S&P 500 company earnings are expected to have declined 4.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to Refinitiv IBES data as of Friday. The S&P 500 posted 28 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 66 new highs and 143 new lows.

Fed bank directors don't vote on monetary policy, but they do express their views through non-binding votes on the discount rate, which is what the Fed charges to commercial banks for emergency loans. Fed bank presidents say their directors provide key information on the state of the economy. Despite their boards' preference for something different, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari joined other Fed policymakers in a unanimous vote last month to lift the benchmark overnight interest rate to the 4.75%-5.00% range. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester do not cast policy votes this year. Fed meeting minutes never specify which policymakers made which comments.

☆ OPEC’s surprise production cut complicates the Fed’s fight against inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Energy prices across the globe surged last year when Russia invaded Ukraine, fueling global inflation just as the world’s major economies were beginning to rebalance after the pandemic. Now, with oil prices surging once again, headline inflation could remain elevated for longer or even rise. Even core inflation could be affectedWhile Fed officials consider multiple economic metrics in order to inform their decision making, one of their main points of focus is core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices. However, higher oil prices can eventually push up core prices if they remain elevated for long enough. However, he acknowledged the eventual impact of higher prices.

☆ Morning Bid: And it was all going so well
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Amanda Cooper. The prospect of a sustained string of interest rate rises last year led to an epic sell-off in bonds and battered sectors of the stock market, such as tech. As 2023 dawned, data showed the economy was holding up, the consumer was resilient, and, just as importantly, so were corporate profits. But this week's data releases have served as a reminder that policy transmission - the effect of changes in interest rates on the real world - is alive and well. Twelve months and nearly 500 basis points of rate rises will eventually take their toll.

The slew of soft economic data has added to fears of an impending recession in the world's largest economy, putting a lid on risk appetite and sending traders in search of some safe haven assets. The U.S. dollar index was up 0.1% at 101.95, having slid to a two-month trough of 101.40 in the previous session. The Japanese yen also found some support from safe haven bids and was last roughly 0.2% higher at 131.01 per dollar. "Weak economic data continues to weigh in on investor sentiment, triggering a flight-to-safety bid," analysts at Westpac said in a note to clients. The soft data sent U.S. shares lower on Wednesday STX/ while Treasuries advanced, which saw the benchmark 10-year yield falling to its lowest since September .

That spread , which has been in negative territory since November, plunged to new lows this week, standing at nearly minus 170 basis points on Thursday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last year that the 18-month U.S. Treasury yield curve was the most reliable warning of an upcoming recession. "Powell's curve ... continues to plunge to fresh century lows," Citi rates strategists William O'Donnell and Edward Acton said in a note on Thursday. Refinitiv data showed the curve was the most inverted since at least 2007. But market participants believe tighter monetary policy is already starting to hurt growth and are betting on rate cuts later this year.

☆ Fed should stick to raising rates while labor market strong, Bullard says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

April 6 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve should stick to raising interest rates to lower inflation while the labor market remains strong, given the high probability recent financial stresses will continue to abate and absent a marked tightening of credit conditions, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday. Economic data since the Fed's March 21-22 policy meeting has been mixed, with encouraging signs of a loosening in the labor market and a further abatement in high inflation tempered by both remaining too strong for comfort. The Labor Department's employment report for March is due to be released on Friday. Bullard said this week's better-than-expected report on labor market openings still showed a job market that remained very strong by historical standards. Investors are almost evenly divided as to whether the Fed will keep its policy rate unchanged at its May 2-3 meeting or proceed with a quarter-of-a-percentage-point increase.

☆ The Fed should keep raising rates as overblown credit fears make a recession unlikely, Fed President Bullard says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed can keep raising rates as there's little risk of recession caused by recent bank stress, Fed president James Bullard said. The lending facilities extended to banks have been working, offsetting a bigger credit crunch. "It's not clear to me that there will be much of a pullback on lending by these types of banks," Bullard said. Bullard had previously forecast a Fed rate of 5.50%-5.75%, and has been a proponent of the bank's aggressive policy in order to tame high prices. And rate cuts may not be the most effective answer to current credit anxieties, Bank of America explained in a note published Thursday.

☆ Futures muted as focus shifts to jobs data amid recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures mixed: Dow flat, S&P down 0.05%, Nasdaq down 0.24%April 6 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were subdued on Thursday as investors awaited jobs data to gauge the impact of the Federal Reserve's aggressive policy tightening on the U.S. economy. Weak data from services and manufacturing sectors this week has pointed to slowing growth, fueling hopes in the market of a pause in interest rate hikes. ET, Dow e-minis were up 9 points, or 0.03%; and S&P 500 e-minis were down 2 points, or 0.05%. The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) are on track to notch declines for the first time in four weeks. The U.S. stock market will be shut on Friday for the Good Friday holiday.

☆ Stock futures are little changed as investors weigh health of job market and economy: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures were near flat Wednesday night as investors considered what the latest data suggested about the health of the broader economy. Those moves come as investors digest the latest data released this week to see if the labor market has shown signs of weakening. Investors will watch Thursday for jobless claims data for more insights into the strength of the labor market. Thursday will cap off a shortened trading week with the market closed for Good Friday. But investors will still follow Friday's data on nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and hourly wages.

☆ Treasury yields rise as investors weigh banking sector developments
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point equals 0.01%. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by close to five basis points to 3.4265%. The 2-year Treasury was trading at around 3.8875% after rising by over 11 basis points. U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Monday as investors assessed the latest changes in the banking sector and concerns about its future eased slightly. Investors considered fresh developments in the banking sector.

☆ The Fed's rate hike policy doesn't have many fans — but abandoning the inflation target would be a 'disaster' that brings the economy back to the 1970s, a Fed official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The president of the St. Louis Fed said it would be a disaster for the Fed to abandon its inflation target. The Fed has been hiking interest rates aggressively to get inflation down to 2%. The Fed then targeted inflation aggressively and adopted the 2% inflation target in the 1990s. Ethan Harris, a Bank of America economist, wrote in a December note there's little evidence that the 2% inflation target is the "optimal target," per Fortune. Higher interest rates make borrowing — like mortgages to credit cards more expensive.

"It was a quirky situation," St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in comments to a St. Louis community group. 'FELT VERY STABLE'The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, its ninth straight increase. This wasn't a straightforward decision," Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said in an interview with National Public Radio, a U.S. media outlet. But "that's a different issue than the macro policy issue that we were dealing with in terms of interest rates," Bostic said. So the conditions were right to do monetary policy the way we want to do monetary policy."

Shares of major U.S. banks JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), Wells Fargo (WFC.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N) dropped more than 2% in premarket trade. Shares of regional lenders First Republic Bank (FRC.N), PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O), Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N) and Truist Financial Corp (TFC.N) fell between 2.1% and 2.8%. European banks also came under pressure, with a report of a U.S. probe on Credit Suisse and UBS (UBS.N) further souring the mood. ET, Dow e-minis were down 304 points, or 0.94%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 31.5 points, or 0.79%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 59 points, or 0.46%. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar and Ankika Biswas; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila and Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ St. Louis Fed president says the probability of global financial crisis very low
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSt. Louis Fed president says the probability of global financial crisis very lowSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard says the market is pricing in a lot of bad things for the second half, and will have to change if the current financial stress abates.

☆ Morning Bid: Bank angst persists, unnerves Europe
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But banks boosted borrowing under the Fed's newly launched Bank Term Funding Program to $53.7 billion - almost 5 times its first outing the previous week. European bank stocks fell 3% early on Friday, with Deutsche Bank shares (DBKGn.DE) down for a third day - losing 5% amid rising market costs for insuring against the risk of default. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is due to attend Friday's European Union summit in Brussels and update leaders on the state of affairs in the financial system. Wider markets were lower in Asia and Europe and U.S. stock futures were in the red again ahead of the open. With less than a 50% chance of another Fed rate rise in this cycle now priced into the futures, almost 80 basis points of rate cuts are now seen by year-end.

☆ Stock futures are up slightly as investors weigh bank troubles, Fed decision: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures were slightly higher Thursday night as investors' attention shifted from this week's Federal Reserve meeting back to the U.S. banking system. S&P 500 futures gained 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures were up 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite posted the largest gain, at 1%, as technology shares continued to rally on a hunch that interest rate hikes would be coming to an end. Investors continued responding Thursday to the quarter percentage point interest rate hike announced by the Fed on Wednesday. The central bank also signaled that the interest rate hikes, meant to cool inflation, could be coming the end.

☆ Bank troubles roil markets and make Fed's decision next week more fraught
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Even with Friday's sell-off, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq scored gains for the week. The S & P 500 rose 1.4%, compared to a tiny loss of 0.2% in the Dow . "If the U.S. economy is going into a recession, they're going to be buying less cloud service. On Friday, durable goods for February is reported, and there are releases of flash S & P Global PMI data for services and manufacturing. Durable goods 9:30 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard 9:45 a.m. S & P Global Manufacturing PMI 9:45 a.m. S & P Global Services PMI

☆ Watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell speak live in second day of Capitol Hill testimony
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Please refresh the page if you do not see a player above at that time.] Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee in remarks that markets will be watching closely. On Tuesday, Powell told the Senate Banking Committee that the central bank could raise interest rates more aggressively if inflation data remains strong. "If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes," Powell said, igniting a sell-off on Wall Street in both stocks and bonds. Powell also offered commentary on the debt ceiling, cryptocurrency and other topics.

"We've been talking about impending recession for several quarters now," said Malone, whose Virginia Beach-based company has a national footprint. So has unexpectedly strong consumer spending and, for the world outlook, the reopening of China's economy from strict COVID lockdowns. That poured cold water on the idea that the Fed would "pivot" on a dime to lower rates. "Government bond yields are up" since the last Fed policy meeting, Durham wrote. "It kind of seems the U.S. economy might be more resilient than markets thought six or eight weeks ago."

"It's going to take more effort on the part of the Fed to get inflation on that sustainable downward path to 2%." She is among the minority of Fed policymakers who back in December thought they would need to lift the policy rate to 5.4% to stop inflation, while most believed 5.1% would suffice. Similarly none of the other Fed policymakers who spoke Friday, including the normally hawkish Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, focused on the fresh inflation data to argue for a more muscular Fed response, though all continued to signal more rate hikes would be required. And traders largely erased what had been consistent bets on Fed rate cuts towards the end of the year, pricing in a year-end Fed policy rate of 5.26%. "It looks like the Fed will have to be more aggressive," said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas.

☆ Global shares, U.S. Treasury yields fall; Fed minutes called 'outdated'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Chibuike Oguh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Treasury yields retreated after surging to three-month highs. "The bond market has already priced in more rate hikes but the stock market hasn't repriced to reflect all of the movement in the rates," Mounah added. The U.S. dollar gained due to the unexpected strength of the American economy revealed in recent economic data, notwithstanding interest rate hikes by the Fed. Oil prices fell 2% on growing concerns over oil demand as the Fed aims to keep hiking rates to reduce surging consumer prices. Gold prices fell as the U.S. dollar gained.

☆ Gold firms on softer dollar but Fed's rate-hike views limit advance
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A one-kilogram gold bar sits at Gold Investments Ltd. bullion dealers in this arranged photograph in London, U.K., on Wednesday, July 29, 2020. Gold prices rose on Thursday, helped by a slight pullback in the dollar, although prospects of U.S. interest rates staying higher for longer kept bullion on a tight leash. Elevated interest rates dampen gold's appeal as an inflation hedge while raising the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reiterated on Wednesday that a Fed policy rate in the range of 5.25%-5.5% would be adequate to tame inflation. Investor attention is now on the U.S. personal consumption expenditures data, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, due on Friday.

☆ Treasury yields hold steady as investors assess Fed policy outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point equals 0.01%. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Thursday as investors digested the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes and considered the outlook for the central bank's interest rate policy. They also noted that further interest rate hikes are likely. The Fed increased interest rates by 25 basis points at its last meeting, marking the eighth consecutive rate hike. Investors will be looking to further Fed speakers, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Thursday, for fresh hints about the path ahead for interest rates.

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